Comparative wake-turbulence assessments and findings for the B747-8

WakeNet3-Europe February 2012 Comparative wake-turbulence assessments and findings for the B747-8 J.D. Crouch & M.J. Czech Boeing Commercial Airplanes JDC/MJC Feb12 1

Comparative wake-turbulence assessments (overview) A relative assessment of different airplane wakes Current system considered safe Seek to assess relative safety of two operating aircraft Both severity and likelihood B747-8 Experience and Findings Assessment approach Flight testing and results Safety Case, ICAO guidance, Safety Assessment Report (SAR) More general approaches to wake assessment JDC/MJC Feb12 2

3-view comparison of B747-8 8 and B747-400 400 JDC/MJC Feb12 3

B747-8 8 passenger & freighter design weights Design Weight 747-8 Passenger 747-400 MTOW (% increase) MLW (% increase) 987,000 (+8.5%) 682,000 (+5%) 910,000 652,000 Design Weight 747-8 Freighter 747-400F MTOW (% increase) MLW (% increase) 987,000 (+8.5%) 763,000 (+15%) 910,000 666,000 JDC/MJC Feb12 4

B747-8 8 passenger & freighter design weights Design Weight 747-8 Passenger 747-400 MTOW (% increase) MLW (% increase) 987,000 (+8.5%) 682,000 (+5%) 910,000 652,000 Design Weight 747-8 Freighter 747-400F MTOW (% increase) MLW (% increase) 987,000 (+8.5%) 763,000 (+15%) 910,000 666,000 Weight increase suggests a potential increase in wake strength (& wake risk) JDC/MJC Feb12 5

B747-8 8 Steering Group / Working Group structure Air Safety Regulators Aircraft Manufacturer Air Traffic Service Providers Observers USA FAA Aviation Safety Boeing 747-8 Team FAA Air Traffic Organization ICAO ALPA Europe EASA EUROCONTROL W.Bryant (FAA) JDC/MJC Feb12 6

B747-8 8 Working Group timeline Develop test plan Establish test requirements Pre-flight CFD analysis First WG meeting ICAO interim guidance Flight testing ICAO state letters 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 JDC/MJC Feb12 7

Equivalent level of safety approach Reference airplane : Solid line New airplane : Dashed line Measured vortex strength (circulation) Current Separation Proposed Separation Distance behind airplane (nm) Basic assessment approach similar to A380 JDC/MJC Feb12 8

Pre-flight CFD analysis of the B747-8 8 and B747-400 400 1. Start with wake survey at tail of aircraft 2. Run Parabolized RANS CFD code to calculate wake evolution 3. Extract relevant parameters at distances of interest Tail survey (from wind tunnel or full-airplane CFD) 1 2 3 Downstream assessment (,b 0 ) JDC/MJC Feb12 9

B747-8 8 wake flight testing Compare B747-8 wake to a reference aircraft (B747-400) Fresno, CA selected as test site based on weather, SNR and availability JDC/MJC Feb12 10

Flight-test test procedures 747-400 400 Controlled Spacing 747-8 LIDAR B747-8 and B747-400 flown sequentially in a circuit to enable pair-wise comparisons at approximately one wingspan above ground (most hazardous scenario) Environmental conditions carefully restricted (reasonably worst case) Airplane settings and trajectories carefully controlled For each approach, measurements were made of airplane parameters, met conditions, and wake characteristics Volpe Center supported ground measurements under contract to Boeing JDC/MJC Feb12 11

Flight-test test data analysis Flight testing complete: mid October 2010 Data provided to Working Group: late November 2010 Data analyzed by: FAA, EUROCONTROL, EASA, Boeing Multiple analysis methods used Multiple assessment approaches: Consider strength at fixed distance Consider delta distance for equal strength Compare encounter likelihood JDC/MJC Feb12 12

Quantitative assessment of WVE severity: Wake strength Strength of vortices as a function of time (or distance) behind aircraft Data analyzed using many different approaches (representative result) Example graph showing the B747-8 wake strength less than or equal to the B747-400 B747-400 B747-8 Wake Strength t Following Distance (or Time) Similar result seen in analysis of rejected cases JDC/MJC Feb12 13

Quantitative assessment of WVE likelihood: Survival probability and lifetimes Vortex-lifetime comparisons for B747-400 400 and B747-8 Probability of vortices lasting to a given time (or distance) Example graph showing the B747-8 survival probability is less than or equal to the B747-400 B747-400 B747-8 Survival probability Following Distance (or Time) JDC/MJC Feb12 14

Flight-test test data findings Flight test results in agreement with pre-flight CFD Results show B747-8 wake strength less than or equal to the B747-400 at distances of interest B747-8 vortices are closer together, resulting in more rapid descent and decay 747-400 747-8 JDC/MJC Feb12 15

B747-8 8 wake-assessment assessment documentation Safety Assessment Report (SAR) from B747-8 WG BOEING PROPRIETARY DOCUMENT Limited access on a need-to-know basis with Proprietary Information Agreement Contact: Terry L McVenes (BCA, Operational Regulatory Affairs) Safety Case from B747-8 WG/SG PUBLIC DOCUMENT provided to ICAO Available on request Contact: Jeffrey Tittsworth (FAA, ATO) State Letters from ICAO PUBLIC DOCUMENT provided to ANSPs JDC/MJC Feb12 16

Comparative wake-turbulence assessments (overview) A relative assessment of different airplane wakes Current system considered safe Seek to assess relative safety of two operating aircraft Both severity and likelihood B747-8 Experience and Findings Assessment approach Flight testing and results Safety Case, ICAO guidance, Safety Assessment Report (SAR) More general approaches to wake assessment JDC/MJC Feb12 17

The challenge of relative WVE risks assessments How does an airplane modification translate into a change in WVE risk? Differences of interest may be overpowered by other factors Generating Airplane Wake Generation Airplane Parameters Wake Evolution Airplane Parameters Environmental Factors Wake Encounters Airplane Parameters Environmental Factors Encounter Response and Likelihood Airplane Encounter Geometry Encountering Airplane WVE risk JDC/MJC Feb12 18

WVE risk assessment: Verification vs. Relevance Ease of Verification Low High a/p weight Initial wake characteristics Compromise between what is easily verifiable and what is most relevant to describing safety risks Wake strength at distance Wake encounters (function of number and scenario) Low Relevance to assessing WVE risk High JDC/MJC Feb12 19

Alternative approaches to WVE risk assessment Hierarchy of methods to assess wake strength and encounter likelihood ihood 1. Weight comparisons (e.g. current ICAO) MTOW, MLW 2. Estimated strength at distance (e.g. RECAT) Weight and span (Need model for wake evolution, wing loading) 3. Predicted wake characteristics from CFD Weight, wing loading, near-field evolution, interaction w/ ground (Need CFD tool and models for turbulence and instabilities) 4. Measured wake characteristics from flight (e.g. B747-8) Weight, wing loading, near-field evolution, far-field evolution, interaction with ground all at full scale (Need suitable test site and measurement system. Influenced by environmental conditions, a/p operation and measurement limitations) JDC/MJC Feb12 20

Summary A relative safety argument was used to assess the B747-8 wake-vortex encounter risks based on wake strength and wake lifetime Documented in ICAO Safety Case Supported by Boeing Safety Assessment Report Future wake-assessment efforts should benefit from increased confidence in CFD and even simpler assessment methods JDC/MJC Feb12 21