How can European Air Traffic Control cope with additional Growth from the CEE Dr. Christoph Brützel Cracow, Hotel Stary May, 23 rd, 2007 1
Air traffic keeps on growing and density keeps extending European Air Traffic Growth Perspectives 2005: 10.5 Mio. 2010: 12.5 Mio. Number of movements will double within 20 years Source: EUROCONTROL 2007 Source: EUROCONTROL 2007 2020: 17.2 Mio. Source: EUROCONTROL 2007 2025: 21 Mil. Density and complexity will increase and extend 2
European Air Traffic Growth Perspectives CEE countries traffic is supposed to grow at above average rates. Source: Eurocontrol Long Term Forecast Flight Movements 2006-2025 3
European Air Traffic Growth Perspectives Today Western European core traffic areas are exposed to higher traffic density than CEE countries. TOP 50 Most constrained points Source: Eurocontrol Performance Review Commission Performance Review Report 2006 - Draft 4
European Air Traffic Growth Perspectives However, complexity of traffic and traffic density of some CEE countries are above European average yet Average Structural Index = Horizontal Interactions Indicator + Vertical Interactions Indicator + Speed Interactions Indicator Complexity score = Structural Index * Adjusted Density Source: Eurocontrol Performance Review Commission Performance Review Report 2006 - Draft Code BE UK CH DE NL AT CZ FR IT SK SI HU ES DK MK HR SE PL RO TR GR PT NO CY BU LV IE EE LT AL FI UA MT MD Country Belgium UK Switzerland Germany Netherlands Austria Czech Rep. France Italy Slovakia Slovenia Hungary Spain Denmark Macedonia Croatia Sweden Poland Romania Turkey Greece Portugal Norway Cypres Bulgaria Latvia Ireland Estonia Lithuania Albania Finland Ukraine Malta Moldavia ANSP Belgocontrol NATS Skyguide DFS MUAC LVNL Austro Control ANS CR DSNA ENAV LPS Slovenia Control Hungaro Control Aena NAVIAIR FYROM CAA Croatia Control ANS Sweden PATA ROMATSA DHMI HCAA NAV Portugal Avinor DCAC Cyprus ATSA Bulgaria LGS IAA EANS Oro Navigacija NATA Albania Finavia UkSATSE MATS MoldATSA Average Adjusted Complexity Density score 0,15 0,199 0,17 0,195 0,17 0,189 0,17 0,188 0,17 0,159 0,15 0,145 0,12 0,118 0,11 0,102 0,14 0,098 0,09 0,095 0,09 0,074 0,07 0,073 0,11 0,071 0,09 0,067 0,07 0,062 0,09 0,056 0,08 0,054 0,06 0,052 0,06 0,049 0,09 0,041 0,07 0,041 0,06 0,035 0,06 0,035 0,03 0,034 0,05 0,034 0,09 0,032 0,05 0,030 0,08 0,029 0,06 0,029 0,03 0,027 0,06 0,026 0,03 0,026 0,04 0,021 0,02 0,011 0,01 0,008 0,085 0,072 5
European Air Traffic Growth Perspectives and some CEE countries are facing challenging capacity requirements for the near future. Source: EUROCONTROL European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan Assessment 2007-2010 6
Beyond traffic growth, ATM Service providers are facing multiple challenges that will change the world of ATC dramatically Traffic growth Technology ATM Service Provider SES SESAR Safety levels Service levels Productivity / Cost effectiveness 7
The overall cost pressure of the air traffic industry has arrived at ATC providers list of priorities. Air Traffic Control Centers and ATM systems support in Europe 8
Density and complexity of traffic seems not to be the only driver in ANSP unit cost. 700 per composite flight hour 600 500 400 300 200 MD MT UA FI LT AL BU IE LV PT NO CY GR TR RO HR PL SE MK DK ES SK SI HU IT FR CZ AT NL Standard deviation 120,2 BE UK DE CH Average: 369,5 MUAC 100 EE Correlation: 48.8 % 0 0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 Complexity score 9
Current initiatives are still focusing on better exploiting and automating the traditional business system. Measurements to improve the current ATC business model Examples Additional segmentation Reduce controller workload by additional segmentation of air space Release potential restricted due to cross-segment airways Additional coordinator interfaces Additional complexity by reduced cycle times Automation Paperless strip system Short term conflict alert Medium term conflict detection ATC autopilot Speed up communication flow Release from routine workload Allow for higher sector throughput Reduced separation minima Increase usage of airspace Enhance capacity of constrained areas 10
The traditional ATC business model is fragmented within and along national boundaries and so are processes and system support. Air Traffic Control Centers and ATM systems support in Europe 11
Single European Sky is pushing towards consolidation and integration of European ATC Situation in year 2000 USA: Airspace (Mil. km 2 ) 9.8 Hubs 31 Europe: Airspace (Mil. km 2 ) 10.5 Hubs 27 Single European Sky intiative Key objectives Restructure European airspace as a function of air traffic flows, rather than according to national borders Create additional capacity Increase the overall efficiency of the air traffic management system 1 ATC Organization (civil + mil.) 21 en route enter 1 Operating system 1 Software 1 900 Flights / AT controller 380 US $ ATC cost / flight 46 ATC Organizations (civil + mil.) 58 en route enter 22 Operating system 30 Software 480 Flights / AT controller 667 US $ ATC cost / flight 12
Liberalization, integration and a new ATM business model are the pillars of SES to achieve its ambitious targets Target level Restructure European airspace as a function of air traffic flows Create Additional Capacity Increase overall efficiency of the air traffic management Initiatives level Liberalization Framework regulation Sevice Provision regulation Airspace regulation Interoperability regulation Integration Functional Airspace Blocks New ATM business model 13
By EC regulation a new governance model for the provisioning of ATC services in Europe has been defined. SES regulatory framework Regulation laying down the framework for the creation of the single European sky (No. 549/2004) Regulation on the organisation and use of the airspace in the single European sky (No. 551/2004) Separation of regulatory and operational competencies / duties Harmonized certification requirements acknowledged internationally Separation between assignment (nomination) and operational performance of Services (subcontracting to certified ANSP) Integration of air space and alignment with traffic requirements (Functional Airspace Blocks) Harmonized processes and systems Performance transparency and improved economic efficiency Regulation on the interoperability of the European Air Traffic Management network (No. 552/2004) Regulation on the provision of air navigation services in the single European sky (No. 550/2004) 14
Functional Airspace Blocks and SESAR are SES key initiatives to enhance capacities and to improve cost effectiveness. - 50 % + 75 % 15
Functional airspace blocks are supposed to be founded in order to shape services along traffic requirements and to consolidate airspace. Key Objectives: Consolidate and reshape airspace design along traffic requirements Enhance air space capacities, productivity and cost effectiveness of ATC services Harmonize ATM processes and systems support Exploit resources synergies 16
In practice FAB initiatives form along consolidated boundaries of today's ATC organizations. FAB intiatives Major issues: States practically cannot harmonize nomination requirements along more than group of FAB partnering states ANSP loose internal economies of scale by participating in more than one FAB Differences in the value chain of ATC (Services, MET, CNS provisioning) Segregation of national charging volumes to join into several FABs hardly practicable 17
The CEATS initiative gives a perfect example for the ineffectiveness of bottom-up integration initiatives. Central European Air Traffic System Start of CEATS project 1990 Key objectives: Czech Republic Maintain and if possible improve the current level of safety in the CEATS Area; Enhancement of the airspace capacity; Italy (Padua ACC) Austria Slovenia Croatia Slovakia Hungary Facilitation of the optimum integration of the CEATS environment into the common European ATM System; Improve the economy of flight operations; Support access of the military users to the airspace. Key achievements : Bosnia & Herzegowina Large scale project organization Repeatedly resolutions and manifests to confirm further steps Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and Chez Republic left Initial scope Actual scope Joint UAC (Vienna) for remaining states unlikely to become operational ICAO SG claims to suspend CEATS project immediately in order not to spoil any more investment financed by air traffic user charges. 18
In spite of encouraging feasibility studies, other FAB initiatives tend to fall apart, too. FAB initiatives FAB France-Swiss History Feasibility study completed (2006) showing major benefits Announcement to continue (2006) France and Switzerland joint FAB Europe Central Bilateral FAB initiative discontinued Major hurdles: Overriding national stakeholder interests Differences in the value chain of ATC (Services, MET, CNS provisioning) Different status of civil military integration High proprietary investment in infrastructure and ATM systems Organizational governance model (i.e. public administration vs. privatized service) Financial governance (charging volumes integration / segregation) FAB UK Ireland Feasibility study completed (2005) showing major benefits Announcement to continue (2005) FAB Governance, charging principles and integration with neighboring FAB unresolved Ireland has joined Nordic initiative (S, DK, N, FIN, ICE, EST) in February 2007 The Communication concludes that: though work is underway in all Member States, projects are at an early stage and initial indications are that tangible results in terms of cost reduction and capacity increase are likely to be modest; and on the basis of the current initiatives it is clear that Member States need to speed up efforts to obtain robust and meaningful results by the end of 2008. Source: House of Commons: European Scrutiny Committee, Eighteenth Report of Session 2006 07, Documents considered by the Committee on 25 April 2007 19
In conclusion, there is little evidence that FABs will come into praxis. FAB flight plan forecast 2003 Initial Idea: Top down approach UIR Europe 2004 European Realities: Bottom up approach 2005 ------------- 2007 -----2008 Euphoric results : Feasibility studies Intermediate report : Complex but possible 2006 ----------- 2009 European Realities II: Synergies, yes please - but only abroad, off course 2009 Final report: A lot of expense but no consequence UIR: Upper Information Region (> 28.000 feet) 20
SESAR has been launched as a joint effort of all stakeholders SESAR Key Objectives Eliminate the fragmented approach to ATM Transform the European ATM system Synchronize the plans and actions of the different partners and Federate resources. 21
SESAR is up to change the world of ATC in Europe dramatically. Weaknesses of current ATC business model New business model required by users Non coordinated decision taking processes ATC- Airport-Airline Fragmented air space design and systems support Operational processes focus on sector view Capacity extension by further fragmentation Lack of automation Growing controller workload Source: SESAR Airspace Users Basic Consortium: AIRSPACE USER OPERATIONS VISION STATEMENTS DOCUMENT ATM 2020+, September 2006 22
ATC providers are requested to develop from administrators of air space sectors towards holistic managers of conflicting trajectories. User expectations Trajectory management replaces sector management Business priorities driven ATC Shared conflict management Collaborative decision taking; Shared data and information systems Use of modern technology (Data link; ADS-B, ASA) Early synchronization of flows towards constrained airports Interoperability of processes and systems Alignment with ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept (intervention by exception) One continuum of airspace Maximize flexibility and minimize constraints Improve economic efficiency Source: SESAR Airspace Users Basic Consortium: AIRSPACE USER OPERATIONS VISION STATEMENTS DOCUMENT ATM 2020+, September 2006 23
Vertical traffic coordination and access to constrained airport infrastructures are the key complexity drivers of conflict management. 24
Routine control of cruising traffic may well be delegated to Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) support. Future Airspace Organization Design Control with Cockpit (Airborne Separation Assistance System) Control with ATC It s going to be a long way to go but it will be accomplished! 25
Hopefully, SESAR will succeed to exploit the potentials arising from its long breath approach Definition Phase Development Phase 2008 SESAR flight plan 2013 Deployment Phase Potential show stoppers Change accused to jeopardize safety Technology considered not mature enough to replace human intelligence Barriers against discharging resources due to synergies, leaner processes and/or automation? 2020 SESAR vision Practically no constraints for cruising traffic Reduced environmental cost Maximum and economically effective utilization of constrained airport access capacities 26
CEE countries should actively involve in making SESAR true SESAR will be the key driver of change in the world of ATC SESAR is the nucleus of the answer to the question how European ATC can cope with the growing traffic from the CEE countries SESAR is bare of any consortium member from the CEE countries CEE countries should look for a more active role in SESAR 27