Final Report Survey of Long Beach Voters Conducted for: May, 00 0 Stone Pine Road 9 South Market Street, Suite 00 South Figueroa Street, 00 0 Grand Avenue, Suite G Half Moon Bay CA 9099 San Jose CA 90 Los Angeles CA 900 Carlsbad CA 9008 Phone 0/ Phone 08/889 Phone /88 Phone 0/09 Fax 0/ Fax 08/889 Fax /88 Fax 0/00
Table of Contents Table of Contents List of Figures...ii List of Tables...iii Introduction... Executive Summary... Methodology... Issues of Importance... Perception of Long Beach Airport... First Ballot Test... 9 Features and Services of the Long Beach Airport... Issues Regarding the Long Beach Airport Proposal... Second Ballot Test... 9 Awareness, Perception, and Use of Airlines... JetBlue Recommended... 0 Use of the Long Beach Airport... Recommendations for the Long Beach Airport... 9 Additional Demographic & Behavioral Information... Page i
List of Figures List of Figures Figure. Issues of Importance... 8 Figure. General Support for the Long Beach Airport... Figure. First Ballot Test Support for More Permanent Facilities... Figure. Influence of Features and Services at the Long Beach Airport... 8 Figure. Comments Supporting and Opposing the Proposal... Figure. Second Ballot Test Support for More Permanent Facilities... Figure. Recall of Commercial Airlines at Long Beach Airport... 8 Figure 8. Awareness of JetBlue... Figure 9. Heard or Read About... Figure 0., Flown... Figure. Flown... Figure. JetBlue Recommended... Figure. Features of JetBlue Recommended... Figure. Increase Destinations of JetBlue... 9 Figure. Frequency of Flight on Commercial Airplane... 0 Figure. Picked Someone Up at Long Beach Airport in Last Months... Figure. Flown Out of Long Beach Airport in Last Months... Figure 8. Taken a Taxi to or from the Long Beach Airport... Figure 9. Sent Someone to the Long Beach Airport with a Taxi... Figure 0. Support for Long Beach Airport Increasing Number of Flights... Figure. Airport Preference... Figure. Length of Residence... Figure. Children Under 9 Years Old... Figure. Preferred Newspaper... Figure. Home Ownership... 8 Figure. Ethnicity... 8 Figure. Household Income... 8 Figure 8. Gender... 9 Figure 9. Age... 9 Figure 0. Party... 9 Figure. Household Party Type... 0 Figure. Likely November 00 Voter... 0 Figure.... 0 Page ii
List of Tables List of Tables Table. Airport Preference by Increase in JetBlue Flights and Destinations Only Voters who have flown in the last months... 0 Table. Methodology... Table. Naming and Abbreviation Conventions... Table. Guide to Statistical Significance... Table. Sample Crosstabulations Table: First Ballot Test by Age... Table. Means Questions and Corresponding Scales... Table. Issues of Importance by... 9 Table 8. Issues of Importance by Party... 0 Table 9. General Support for the Long Beach Airport by Length of Residence... Table 0. General Support for the Long Beach Airport by... Table. General Support for the Long Beach Airport by Age... Table. General Support for the Long Beach Airport by Airport Preference... Table. General Support for the Long Beach Airport by Frequency of Use of Commercial Airplanes... Table. First Ballot Test by Likely November 00 Voter... Table. First Ballot Test by... Table. First Ballot Test by Airport Preference... Table. Influence of Features and Services at the Long Beach Airport by... 9 Table 8. Influence of Features and Services at the Long Beach Airport by Likely November 00 Voter... 0 Table 9. Influence of Features and Services at the Long Beach Airport by Length of Residence... Table 0. Comments Supporting and Opposing the Proposal by Home Ownership... Table. Comments Supporting and Opposing the Proposal by... Table. Second Ballot Test by... Table. Second Ballot Test by Household Income... Table. Second Ballot Test by Age... Table. Recall of Commercial Airlines at Long Beach Airport by Gender... 9 Table. Recall of Commercial Airlines at Long Beach Airport by... 0 Table. Awareness of JetBlue by Party... Table 8. Awareness of JetBlue by Age... Table 9. Awareness of JetBlue by Household Income... Table 0. Awareness of JetBlue by Ethnicity... Table. Flown by... Table. Flown by Household Income... Table. Features of JetBlue Recommended by Gender... 8 Table. Increase Destinations of JetBlue... 9 Page iii
List of Tables Table. Frequency of Flight on Commercial Airplane by... 0 Table. Picked Someone Up at Long Beach Airport in Last Months by... Table. Flown Out of Long Beach Airport in Last Months by... Table 8. Taken a Taxi to or from the Long Beach Airport by... Table 9. Support for Long Beach Airport Increasing Number of Flights by... Table 0. Airport Preference by... Page iv
Introduction Introduction (GRA) is pleased to present the results of a public opinion research project conducted for. This report is organized into the following sections: Executive Summary The Executive Summary includes key findings from the survey and a Conclusions section, which details our conclusions based on the survey results. Methodology The Methodology section explains the methodology used to conduct this type of survey research. This section also explains how to use the detailed crosstabulation tables in Appendix B. Summary of Results In the body of the report we present a questionbyquestion analysis of the survey. The discussion is organized into the following sections: Issues of Importance Perception of Long Beach Airport First Ballot Test Features and Services of the Long Beach Airport Comments Regarding the Long Beach Airport Second Ballot Test Awareness and Use of JetBlue Recommended Use of the Long Beach Airport Recommendations for the Long Beach Airport Additional Demographic and Behavioral Information Appendices We have included the following two appendices: Appendix A, which presents the questionnaire and topline data. Appendix B, which presents the computergenerated crosstabulations. Page
Executive Summary Executive Summary Key Findings d on an analysis of the survey data, GRA offers the following key findings: Issues of Importance Perception of Long Beach Airport The first substantive question in the survey asked respondents to identify the most important issues facing the community. Respondents were presented with a series of community issues and asked the importance of each issue. Respondents gave the highest ratings of importance to the issue that addressed Improving the quality of public education. Those issues that were more directly related to the Long Beach Airport also received relatively high ratings of importance: Maintaining good jobs within the community, Improving the local economy, and Keeping businesses in Long Beach that employ local residents and increase local tax revenues were ranked second, third, and sixth in order of importance of the issues evaluated. In Question, respondents were presented with two hypothetical opinions. The Smith opinion, saw the Long Beach Airport as a valuable asset in our community because it stimulates the economy, enhances tourism for our city, creates jobs, and provides a convenient transportation option for residents and visitors. The Brown opinion professed that the Long Beach Airport should be shut down because it creates traffic, increases the number of people coming through the City, and degrades our air quality. Respondents were then asked which opinion was closer to their own. Eightythree percent of the respondents agreed with the Smith opinion, while percent agreed with the Brown opinion. Two percent indicated a preference for both approaches, two percent said Neither of them, and two percent did not know, or did not provide a response. Voters residing in the City of Long Beach for 9 or more years were more likely to agree with the Smith opinion, which saw the Long Beach Airport as a valuable asset in the community, than those residents whose length of residence was less than 9 years. In addition, respondents in showed a substantially higher agreement with the Smith opinion (90%) than did those in (8%) and 8 (8%). Respondents ages 9 years or less reported agreement with the Smith opinion less often than did those 0 years of age and older. First Ballot Test Having identified respondents attitude towards various local issues including the Long Beach airport, respondents were then asked if they supported replacing temporary facilities at the Long Beach airport with more permanent structures. Because this question does not provide respondents additional information beyond the language in the question, this inquiry reveals the level of support that is likely in the absence of further information about the proposed project. This initial test also provides a measure of the baseline level of support Page
Executive Summary for the proposal that can be compared to the level of support in the followup inquiry (Question ), after respondents have learned more about the proposal and more about the Long Beach airport. When asked if they would support replacing temporary facilities with more permanent ones, 9 percent of respondents indicated Definitely yes or Probably yes (% and %, respectively), thirteen percent said Definitely no or Probably no (% and %, respectively), and eight percent did not know or did not answer the question. Similar to the overall findings, support for more permanent facilities at the Long Beach Airport were consistently strong across the different districts. Support was lowest in 8, where % of respondents indicated Definitely yes or Probably yes (% and %, respectively) to replacing the temporary facilities with more permanent ones. Even in 8, almost times as many respondents indicated they would support the proposal (either Definitely yes or Probably yes ) rather than oppose (either Definitely no or Probably no ) it. Features and Services of the Long Beach Airport The purpose of Question was to inform respondents about features and services of the Long Beach Airport, and determine the impact of the information on their stated likelihood of supporting the proposal for more permanent facilities. More specifically, respondents were asked if they would be more or less likely to support the proposed project if they knew about certain features and services at the Long Beach Airport. Respondents were most positively influenced by the feature that stated the Long Beach Airport Mostly flies new Airbus A0 s, one of the quietest, safest, and cleanest commercial airplanes flying today, followed by The Proposal to build more permanent facilities was being paid for by passengers that fly in and out of Long Beach as well as the airlines and not by any City or County funds, and the airport Serves Long Beach residents, with more than 0% of all passengers departing from the airport residing in Long Beach. Issues Regarding the Long Beach Airport Proposal The objective of Question was to present respondents with comments supporting and opposing the proposed project at the Long Beach Airport, which would replace temporary facilities with more permanent structures. The results will be used to identify the impact of the information items upon the support for the potential project. Respondents were most positively influenced after hearing that Local residents who fly prefer the convenience of flying out of Long Beach rather than driving to LAX or the John Wayne Airport, followed closely by The tourism industry is growing in Long Beach, bringing jobs into the community and the airport has played an important part in that growth, The airport plays a vital role in long Beach s economy, with over 00 businesses located at Long Beach Airport, and The airport increases and enhances Long Beach s image throughout the region and throughout the county. The only comment, that negatively influenced Long Beach voters as a whole was The airplanes create noise and air pollution that lowers our quality of life. Page
Executive Summary Second Ballot Test After providing respondents with the wording of the proposed project, the features and services of the Long Beach Airport, and issues regarding the Long Beach Airport proposal, respondents were once again presented with the same proposal that they were presented in the first ballot test and asked whether they would support a project to replace temporary facilities at the airport with more permanent structures. Because the process of taking the survey for most respondents involves learning a great deal more about the proposal then they knew at the beginning of the survey, the survey simulates a campaign environment. Therefore, change in support for the proposed project can be assessed at the second ballot test after voters have been presented with basic information and comments concerning the proposal. The second ballot test language is identical to the language used in the first ballot test to ensure that recorded change in support for the proposal is due to the information provided in the survey not due to subtle changes in the ballot language. When asked if they would support replacing temporary facilities with more permanent ones, 8 percent of respondents indicated either Definitely yes or Probably yes (% and %, respectively), while percent said either Probably no or Definitely no (% and %, respectively), and four percent either did not know or did not provide an answer to the question. support for the proposal increased by five percent from the first ballot test. The second ballot test support for more permanent facilities was also examined by district. When asked if they would support the proposal, respondents in indicated Definitely yes or Probably yes more often than did residents of 8 (90% and %, respectively). The highest level of support, those who indicated Definitely or Probably yes, was seen in respondents who reported household incomes under $0,000. Additionally, the percentage of those who said Definitely yes to supporting the proposed project gradually rose as age increased. Notwithstanding, percentages of respondents who reported Definitely or Probably yes were relatively consistent across all age categories. Awareness, Perception, and Use of Airlines In Question 8, respondents were asked to recall names of commercial airlines at Long Beach Airport. This question was presented in an openended format, which means that respondents were free to mention any airline without being constrained to choose from a list. The most often recalled airline was JetBlue (%), followed by American (%), and America West (%). Males more often (0%) recalled that JetBlue was a commercial airline at LGB than did females (8%). An examination of respondents s recall of commercial airlines at Long Beach Airport by district revealed that residents in and most often recalled that JetBlue was a commercial airline at the Long Beach Airport (8% and 80%, respectively) in comparison to residents from other districts within the City. Residents from 9 and were least likely to indicate JetBlue as a commercial airline at LGB (8% and %, respectively). Page
Executive Summary Awareness of JetBlue was determined by asking respondents two separate questions. In Question 8, respondents were asked to recall names of commercial airlines at Long Beach Airport. To avoid repetition, if they indicated, they were not asked Question 9, which asked if they had heard or read about. Responses to these two questions were combined to infer overall awareness. More specifically, if they recalled in Question 8 or indicated that they had heard or read about JetBlue in Question 9, they were considered to be Aware of. Eightyfive percent of respondents were aware of, while percent were not. Ninetytwo percent of Republicans were aware of, while 8 percent of Democrats were aware of the airline. The highest level of awareness was seen in respondents ages 0 to years (90%), followed by respondents ages 0 to 9 years (88%). Although still relatively high, the lowest level of awareness was reported by those respondents 8 to 9 years of age (8%). When overall awareness of JetBlue was examined by household income, higher levels of awareness were reported by respondents with household incomes of $0,000 or more. The highest level of overall awareness was seen in respondents with household incomes of $90,000 to $9,999 (9%) and $0,000 or more (9%). Furthermore, White/Caucasian reported the highest level of awareness (9%) whereas, percent of African American/Black respondents were aware of, and percent of Latino/Hispanic respondents were aware of the airline. Q9. Have you heard, or read about JetBlue airways? In Question 9, respondents were asked if they had heard or read about. Those who named as a commercial airline at Long Beach Airport in Question 8 were considered to be aware of the airline, and not asked Question 9. Fiftynine percent of those who had not named in Question 8 indicated that they had heard or read about the airline, while 0 percent said they had not. The overall percentages of those who indicated that they had flown was derived from several separate questions. Respondents who neither recalled JetBlue as a commercial airline at Long Beach Airport, nor indicated that they had heard or read about Jet Blue Airways were considered to be unaware of JetBlue. Thus, respondents who were unaware of the airline were not asked if they had ever flown JetBlue in Question 0. The results showed that seventytwo percent of all respondents were aware of JetBlue and had not flown the airline, while percent of all respondents had flown on JetBlue. Fifteen percent were unaware of, and one percent either did not know, or did not answer the question. Q0. Have you ever flown on? Respondents were asked, in Question 0, if they had ever flown the. Individuals who were considered to be unaware of JetBlue, based upon their responses to Questions 8 Page
Executive Summary and 9, were not asked this question. Of those that answered the question, 8 percent indicated that they had not flown the airline, while percent reported that they had. The highest percentages of respondents who had flown JetBlue were residents of and (% and 0%, respectively). Residents of 9 reported flying the least (%). In addition, the highest percentage of respondents who were aware of JetBlue and indicated that they had flown the airline reported a household income of $0,000 or more (%). JetBlue Recommended Question asked respondents if they would recommend to friends or family. Respondents who were unaware of JetBlue (i.e., they did not recall JetBlue as a commercial airline at Long Beach Airport in Question 8, nor did they indicate that they had heard or read about JetBlue in Question 9) or had never flown the airline were not asked this question. Ninetyseven percent of respondents indicated that they would either Strongly recommend (8%) or Somewhat recommend (%) the airline to friends or family. Two percent said they Would not recommend JetBlue, and less than one percent had No stated opinion or did not answer the question. Respondents who either said they would Strongly recommend or Somewhat recommend JetBlue to friends or family in Question were asked which features of the airline they would most likely recommend. This question was presented in an openended format, which means that respondents were free to mention any feature without being constrained to choose from a list. The highest percentage of respondents (%) said that they would recommend JetBlue s Customer service, followed closely by the airline s Low fares (%). Twentyfive percent said they would recommend the Free live television. In addition, females more often reported (%) that they would recommend JetBlue because of their Customer service than males (%). Conversely, males more often reported they would recommend JetBlue because of their Ontime flights than their female counterparts (0% and 0%, respectively). Question asked respondents if they would like to see fly more flights to more destinations. This question was only asked of those who were aware of JetBlue (Questions 8 and 9), flown the airline (Question 0), and would recommend to friends or family (Question ). Ninety percent of respondents indicated that they would like to see fly more flights to more destinations, while six percent said they did not. Four percent of respondents refused to answer the question. Respondents who reported residing in the City of Long Beach for 9 or more years wanted to see an increase more often than those who had lived in the City for less than 9 years. Page
Executive Summary Use of the Long Beach Airport All respondents were then asked how often they had flown on a commercial airplane in the last months. Fortyfour percent indicated Not once, while 8 percent said Once or twice. Sixteen percent of the respondents indicated that they had flown a commercial airplane Three to six times in the last months, and percent said More than seven times. The highest percentage of respondents who had flown on a commercial airline in the last months were residents of (8%). Respondents who indicated that they had not flown on a commercial airplane in the last months, or did not know, were asked if they had picked someone up at the airport or been visited by someone who had traveled to see them using a commercial airplane. Fiftytwo percent of respondents indicated Yes, while 8 percent indicated No. The highest percentage of respondents indicating Yes were residents of (%). Recommendations for the Long Beach Airport Respondents were then informed that the airport and the City of Long Beach plan to conduct noise studies to determine if the airport meets the current noise requirements. They were then asked if they would support JetBlue and other carriers increasing the number of flights out of Long Beach if the airport meets, and stays within, the current noise ordinance. Eightyfive percent said that they would either Definitely support (%) or Probably support (%) the increase in flights. Only percent of respondents opposed the possibility of increased flights out of Long Beach, and four percent of respondents did not indicate their preference. The next question in the survey asked respondents if they had the opportunity to fly out of either Long Beach Airport (LGB) or LAX (Los Angeles International Airport), with the same flights and fare, which they would prefer. Ninetyone percent of the respondents indicated that they would prefer to fly out of LGB. Residents in and showed the most preference for LGB (9% and 9%, respectively). Page
Executive Summary Conclusions d on the research objectives and the findings of this study, GRA can draw the following conclusions from the study. Support for the Long Beach Airport Results of the survey show that Long Beach voters, as a whole, unequivocally supported the Long Beach Airport as both an important component of the Long Beach economy and as a convenient transportation option for residents. Support for the airport was consistent throughout the survey and is illustrated in the following survey results: Question Over 80 percent of respondents agreed that the Long Beach Airport was a valuable asset in the community, and only percent of registered voters indicated that the Long Beach Airport should be shut down. Question Over three quarters of respondents (9%) supported a proposal to replace temporary facilities at the Long Beach Airport with more permanent structures. Opposition to the proposal was less than percent. Question In a followup inquiry to Question, over 80 percent of respondents (8%) indicated they would support the proposal for more permanent facilities at the Long Beach Airport. Question 9 Eightyfive percent of respondents supported the possibility of increasing the number of flights out of Long Beach if the airport meets and stays within the current noise ordinance. Only percent of voters opposed the possibility of increasing the number of flights out of Long Beach. The strong support by voters did not waver after discussing features and services of Long Beach Airport and revealing comments both in support and in opposition to the airport. In the followup inquiry, gauging support for the replacement of temporary facilities with more permanent structures at the airport, support for the proposal increased five percent from 9 percent to 8 percent with well over half of respondents indicating they would definitely support replacing temporary facilities with more permanent structures. Support for the proposal was also consistent across different geographic, political, socioeconomic, and demographic dimensions. The broad support of the Long Beach Airport can be seen in the following crosstabular results: Between 8 and 90 percent of respondents from each ( 9) agreed that the Long Beach Airport was a valuable commodity within the community. Over percent of Democrats, Republicans, voters affiliated with Other political parties, and those voters who Decline to state their party supported the proposal to replace temporary facilities with more permanent structures at the Long Beach Airport. Over 8 percent of both homeowners and renters supported the possibility of increasing the numbers of flights out of the Long Beach Airport. Page 8
Executive Summary Between 9 and 8 percent of respondents from each age group (8 9, 0 9, 0 9, 0, and +) agreed that the Long Beach Airport was a valuable commodity within the community. Issues of Importance The survey results show that voters, as a whole, not only supported the airport, they also found the economic issues tied to keeping the airport open of utmost importance. In the survey, nine community issues were evaluated on their perceived importance. The only issue to receive a higher mean importance score than Maintaining good jobs within the community and Improving the local economy was Improving the quality of public education. Issues that traditionally are the most important in California communities, such as Protecting the environment and reducing air and water pollution, were less important to Long Beach voters than those directly related to maintaining jobs and improving the local economy. The results from the survey suggest that the importance of local economic issues tends to drive voters support for different proposals. The proposal to possibly increase the number of flights out of Long Beach received 8 percent approval from the voters in Long Beach, and this high level of support was consistent between voters who did not fly at all and their counterparts who flew seven times or more over the last months. The importance of local economic issues was also revealed in the survey results that evaluated comments about the proposal to replace temporary facilities at the airport. Two of the three most influential comments related to the proposal were The tourism industry is growing in Long Beach, bringing jobs into the community and the airport has played an important part in that growth and The airport plays a vital role in Long Beach s economy, with over 00 businesses located at Long Beach Airport. Awareness and Perceptions related to While the survey s primary objective was to determine support for the Long Beach Airport and different proposals associated with the airport, valuable information was gathered on Long Beach voters attitudes and perceptions towards. Some of the more interesting findings of the survey include: Awareness of JetBlue Almost twothirds of respondents identified JetBlue as a commercial airline at Long Beach Airport, 0 percent more than any other carrier, and overall awareness of the company by Long Beach voters was measured at 8 percent. Awareness of JetBlue tended to be higher with voters who were more affluent, aged 0 to years old, and considered themselves to be white/caucasian. Use of JetBlue Approximately percent of respondents indicated that they had flown on JetBlue airways. Respondents that indicated they had flown on JetBlue were more likely to have come from s or, had an annual household income of $0,000 or more, were male, and aged 0 to years old. Recommendations for JetBlue Of the respondents that had flown on JetBlue airways over 9 percent would recommend the airline to friends or family, either strongly (8%) Page 9
Executive Summary or somewhat (%). Less than two percent of voters that had flown on JetBlue would not recommend the airline to friends or family. The features of JetBlue that respondents were most likely to recommend included Customer service (%), Low Fares (%), and Free live TV (%). Of the respondents that had flown JetBlue and would recommend it, 90 percent indicated they would like JetBlue to fly more flights to more destinations. Demand for Long Beach Flights by Long Beach Voters who have flown on a commercial airplane in the last months Voters in Long Beach expressed an overwhelming preference for use of the Long Beach Airport in comparison to LAX, given equivalent flights and fares. Approximately 90 percent of respondents indicated they would rather fly out of Long Beach Airport than LAX. As shown in Table, this preference by Long Beach voters to fly out of Long Beach Airport increases even further when the results are filtered to only reveal those respondents who have flown on a commercial airplane in the last months. Table. Airport Preference by Increase in JetBlue Flights and Destinations Only Voters who have flown in the last months i LGB LAX Neither or Not sure Interested in more flights to more destinations for JetBlue Yes No Refused 9 00 8 9.% 0.0%.% 9 9.%.%.% 9.% 0.% 0.% 00.0% The table above also shows, of those Long Beach voters that have flown on JetBlue, 89 percent (9 out of 09) prefer to fly out of Long Beach Airport and would like to see more flights to more destinations from JetBlue. This compares to less than one percent ( out of 09) of Long Beach voters that have flown on JetBlue who prefer to fly out of LAX and do not want to see more flights to more destinations from JetBlue. Long Beach voters who have flown in the last months on a commercial airplane, agree they would rather fly out of Long Beach Airport than LAX and also want to see more flights to more destinations from Jet Blue. i This Table assumes that those respondents who have flown JetBlue and would not recommend the airline, would respond No to the question of whether they would be interested in seeing more flights to more destinations from JetBlue. Page 0
Methodology Methodology Research Objective At the outset of the project, and GRA identified several research objectives for this study. Viewed broadly, is interested in using the research to: assess overall support for the Long Beach Airport by registered voters in the City of Long Beach; assess support for a proposal that would replace temporary facilities at the Long Beach Airport with more permanent facilities; explore the influence of proposed features and services on support for the proposal; examine the influence of various statements both in favor and in opposition to the proposal; assess awareness of as well as the perception of its features and services and profile the demographic, attitudinal, and behavioral characteristics of registered voters in the City of Long Beach. Methodology Overview Table briefly outlines the methodology used in this project. Nine hundred registered voters in the City of Long Beach completed the survey interview, representing a total universe of 90, registered voters in the City of Long Beach. Interviews were conducted from February 8 through, 00, and each interview typically lasted minutes. Table. Methodology Technique Telephone Interviewing Interview Length Minutes Universe Registered Voters Field Dates February 8 through, 00 Sample Size 900 Sample Choosing the appropriate sampling design for a study is a careful process that involves detailed consideration of the research objectives. In the present study, the primary goal was to assess the awareness, use, and knowledge of and the Long Beach Airport. The universe of all registered voters for this study was approximately 90,. Once the universe was defined, the voter file was stratified by district, age, partisanship, and gender, and individuals were randomly grouped into clusters based on their demographic profile. At GRA, we take great care in ensuring that our sample is representative of the population of interest. Therefore, before beginning the data analysis we checked the voter Page
Methodology characteristics of the sample against the voting characteristics of the population (i.e., registered voters in the City of Long Beach) to ensure that they matched. Because of the research objectives underlying this study and the JetBlue Airway s interest in being able to make reliable estimates of opinions not only citywide, but also of districts within Long Beach, the sampling frame was designed to strategically oversample residents from districts,, and 8. The data were then weighted to adjust for the strategic oversampling that occurred within the districts to accurately represent the registered voters of the City of Long Beach. The resulting data are representative of the registered voter population of Long Beach. Question Labels Naming Conventions In the report, some questions have been shortened to question labels in the figures and tables. For the full question wording, readers are advised to consult the questionnaire in Appendix A. The following naming and abbreviation conventions are referred to frequently in the substantive section of the report Table. Naming and Abbreviation Conventions Age First Ballot Test Gender Homeowner Status Household Party Type Party Individuals are grouped into one of the following age brackets: 8 to 9, 0 to 9, 0 to 9, 0 to 9, 0 to, and +. Voters were grouped based on their position on the proposal in the first ballot test: Definitely yes, Probably yes, Probably no, Definitely no, and. Voters are grouped according to their gender (male or female) as identified by the interviewers. Respondents were grouped according to their response whether they owned or rented their place of residence. Individuals were grouped into the following household party types: Dem one Democrat, Dem two or more Democrats, Rep one Republican, Rep two or more Republicans, Mixed combination of Republican and Democrat and Other party Id other than Republican or Democrat. Democrats, Republicans, Other partisans, and voters who Declined to State (DTS) their party identification were identified from the voter file. Page
Methodology Table. Naming and Abbreviation Conventions Swing Voters Second Ballot Test Number of Children Under Age 9 In Household Preferred Local Newspaper Ethnicity Household Income Years Lived in Long Beach Aware of JetBlue Ever Flown JetBlue Recommend JetBlue Airport Preference Individuals were grouped into categories if their reported position on the proposal changed from the First Ballot Test to the Second Ballot Test. Respondents who changed their vote from Probably no, Definitely no, or to Definitely yes or Probably yes were labeled Positive swing voters. Alternately, individuals who changed their vote from Definitely or Probably yes or to Probably no, or Definitely no, were labeled negative swing voters. Voters were grouped based on their position on the proposal in the second ballot test: Definitely yes, Probably yes, Probably no, Definitely no, and. Voters were grouped based on reported number of children under the age of 9 living in their home: Child, Children, Children, Children, and More than Children. Voters were grouped based on reported local newspaper they read: LA Times, L.B. PressTelegram, and Other. Individuals were grouped according to their reported ethnicity: African American, or Black, Caucasian, or White, Latino, or Hispanic, or Other. Individuals were categorized according to their reported household income: Under $0,000, $0K to $9,999, $0K to $9,999, $0K to $89,999, $90K to $9,999, or $0K or more. Individuals were grouped according to the number of years they had lived in the City of Long Beach: Less than, to less than 9, 9 to less than, or or more. Individuals were grouped according to whether or not they were aware of. Individuals were aware of were categorized according to whether or not they reported ever flying on JetBlue Airways. Individuals who were aware of were categorized according to whether they would Strongly recommend, Somewhat recommend, or Would not recommend the airline to friends or family. Voters were categorized according to which airport they preferred: LGB (Long Beach Airport), LAX (Los Angeles International Airport), or Neither or Not sure. Page
Methodology Table. Naming and Abbreviation Conventions Likely November 00 Voter Voters were grouped based on the likelihood, Yes or No, that they would vote in the November 00 ballot. This determination is made from each individual s voting history. Identified from the sample, individuals were grouped according to the City of Long Beach district in which they lived:,,,,,,, 8, or 9. Randomization of Questions To avoid a position bias where the order in which a series of questions is asked systematically influences the answers to some of the questions several questions in the survey were randomized such that all respondents were not consistently asked the questions in the same order. The series of items in Questions,, and were randomized to avoid the systematic position bias. Understanding the Margin of Error Because a survey only interviews a limited number of people who are part of a larger population group, by mere chance alone there will almost always be some difference between a sample and the population from which it was drawn. For example, researchers might collect information from 00 adults in a city of,000 people. Because not all people in the population were surveyed, there are bound to be differences between the results obtained from interviewing the sample respondents and the results that would be obtained if all people in the population were interviewed. These differences are known as sampling error, and they can be expected to occur regardless of how scientifically the sample has been selected. The advantage of using a scientifically drawn probability sample, however, is that the maximum amount of sampling error can be estimated with a specified degree of confidence. Sampling error is determined by four factors: the size of the population, the chosen sample size, a confidence interval and the dispersion of responses to a survey. Of the four factors, sample size is the most influential variable. Page
Methodology Table. Guide to Statistical Significance Distribution of Responses n 90% / 0% 80% / 0% 0% / 0% 0% / 0% 0% / 0%,00.%.09%.9%.%.%,00.%.%.8%.%.%,00.9%.%.8%.%.8%,00.%.%.0%.89%.9%,000.8%.%.8%.0%.09% 900.9%.%.99%.9%.% 800.0%.%.%.9%.% 00.%.9%.9%.%.0% 00.0%.0%.%.9%.99% 00.%.0%.0%.9%.8% 00.9%.9%.9%.80%.89% Table shows the possible sampling variation that applies to a percentage result reported from a probability type sample. The table shows that if a sample of 900 respondents is randomly drawn from the estimated 90, registered voters in the City of Long Beach, one can be 9 percent confident that the margin of error due to sampling will not vary by more than the indicated number of percentage points (plus or minus) from the result that would have been obtained if the interviews had been conducted with all people in the universe represented in the sample. As the table indicates, the maximum margin of error for all aggregate responses is between.9 and. percent for the sample of 900 registered voters in the City of Long Beach. This means that for a given question answered by all 900 respondents, one can be 9 percent confident that the difference between the percentage breakdowns of the sample population and those of the total population is no greater than. percent. The percent margin of error applies to both sides of the answer, so that for a question in which 0 percent of respondents said yes, one can be 9 percent confident that the actual percent of the population that would say yes is between. percent and. percent. The actual margin of error for a given question in this survey depends on the distribution of the responses to the question. The. percent number refers to questions, such as a yes or no question, where opinions are evenly split in the sample with 0 percent of respondents saying yes and 0 percent saying no. If that same question were to receive a response in which 0 percent of respondents say yes and 90 percent say no, then the margin of error would be no greater than.9 percent. As the number of respondents in a particular Page
Methodology subgroup (e.g., gender or age) is smaller than the number of total respondents, the margin of error associated with estimating a given subgroup s responses will be higher. How to Read a Crosstabulation Table The questions discussed and analyzed in this report comprise a subset of the various crosstabulation tables available for each question. Only those subgroups that are of particular interest or that illustrate a particular insight are included in the discussion on the following pages. Should readers wish to conduct a closer analysis of subgroups for a given question, the complete breakdowns appear in Appendix B. These crosstabulation tables provide detailed information on the responses to each question by all demographic groups that were assessed in the survey. A typical crosstabulation table is shown in Table. Table. Sample Crosstabulations Table: First Ballot Test by Age Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no 8 to 9 years 0 to 9 years Age 0 to 9 years 0 to years + years 900 89 9 8 0.%.8%.%.% 8.% 8.8% 9.0% 9.%.% 9.% 9 8.% 9.%.8%.% 8.% 08.% 9.% 0.%.% 8.0% 99.%.9%.%.%.% 8.% 0.%.0% 8.9% 0 9.% A short description of the item appears at the top of the table. The sample size (in this example, n=900) is presented in the first row and in the first column of data under. The results to each possible answer choice of all respondents are also presented in the first column of data under. The aggregate number of respondents in each answer category is presented as a whole number, and the percentage of the entire sample this number represents is just below the whole number. For example, among overall respondents, people indicated that they would definitely vote yes on the proposal, and represents. percent of the total sample size of 900. Next to the column are other columns representing opinions of males and females. The data from these columns are read in exactly the same fashion as the data in the column, although each group makes up a smaller percentage of the entire sample. Understanding a Mean In addition to analysis of response percentages, many results will be discussed with respect to a descriptive mean (Questions,, and ). Means can be thought of as averages. To Page
Methodology derive a mean that represents perceived importance of local issues (Question ), for example, responses were recoded on a quantitative scale: Extremely important =+, Very important =+, Somewhat important =+, and Not at all important =0. Respondents answers were then averaged to produce a final number that reflects average perceived importance of local issues. The resulting mean conveniently expresses the results of scale items in a single numeric figure, thereby making interpretation of the data considerably easier. At the back of Appendix B, the reader will find several tables of means for questions where a mean score is a useful way of representing the data. The table below references the scale used for each corresponding question. Please note that responses of Don t know and No answer are not included in calculating the means for any question. Table. Means Questions and Corresponding Scales Issue of Importance 0 to 0 = Not at all important = Somewhat important = Very important = Extremely important, Likeliness to Support Permanent Facilities Likeliness to Support Proposal to + = Much less likely = Somewhat less likely 0 = No effect + = Somewhat more likely + = Much more likely A Note on the Tables To present the data in the most accurate fashion, we display the results to the first decimal point in the tables and figures. Sometimes for the purposes of discussion, however, conventional rounding rules are applied, with numbers that include. or higher rounded to the next highest whole number and numbers that include. or lower rounded to the next lowest whole number. Because of this rounding, the reader may notice that percentages in the discussion may not sum to 00 percent due to rounding conventions. Moreover, the decimal numbers shown in pie charts may vary somewhat from the decimal numbers shown in the tables due to software requirements that pie charts sum to exactly 00 percent. These disparities are confined to the first decimal place. Page
Issues of Importance Issues of Importance Q. Next I'm going to read a list of issues facing your community today and for each one, please tell me how important you feel the issue is to you, using a scale of 'extremely important', 'very important', 'somewhat important', or 'not at all important'. Here's the (first/next) one:. (READ ITEM AND ASK:) Do you think this issue is extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important? The first substantive question in the survey asked respondents to identify the most important issues facing the community. Respondents were presented with a series of community issues and asked the importance of each issue. Answers were coded using a scale of Extremely important =+, Very important =+, Somewhat important =+, and Not at all important =0. The aggregate responses to each item are presented below in the form of a mean, which is simply a summary statistic obtained by taking the overall average of the response codes for the entire sample. A mean of +, for example, indicates that, overall, respondents felt that the issue was Very important. The order in which each issue was read to respondents was randomized to avoid a position order bias. As shown in Figure, respondents gave the highest ratings of importance to the issue that addressed Improving the quality of public education (.9). Those issues that were more related to the Long Beach Airport also received relatively high ratings of importance: Maintaining good jobs within the community (.8), Improving the local economy (.), and Keeping businesses in Long Beach that employ local residents and increase local tax revenues (.0) were ranked second, third, and sixth in order of importance of the issues evaluated in this question. Figure. Issues of Importance Qi Improving quality of public education Qe Maintaining good jobs Qb Improving local economy Qh Protecting environment Qf Enhancing police & fire protection Qg Keeping businesses in Long Beach Qd Preventing local tax increases Qc Reducing traffic congestion Qa Expanding parks and recreation programs.9.8....0.8.8. Page 8
Issues of Importance Table examines issues of importance by district. Differences were seen in the perceived importance of the issue Protecting the environment and reducing air and water pollution in that respondents in gave higher ratings of importance (.) than did those in (.98). Similarly, respondents in gave considerably higher ratings for Reducing traffic congestion (.) than did those residing in (.8). Table. Issues of Importance by Qi Improving quality of public education Qe Maintaining good jobs Qb Improving local economy Qh Protecting environment Qf Enhancing police & fire protection Qg Keeping businesses in Long Beach Qd Preventing local tax increases Qc Reducing traffic congestion Qa Expanding parks and recreation programs 8 9.08.9.0.98..0...0..9....0.....0.8.0.9......8......0..........8.98.8...8...99.98.....0..0..9....0.0.08.00.8.9...9.9.8.8..90.8...8.8..8.8.8.0.......88.8..8 Page 9
Issues of Importance When issues of importance are examined by party, as seen in Table8, Democrats rated Protecting the environment and reducing air and water pollution higher (.) in importance than did Republicans (.99). Democrats also reported higher ratings of importance for Expanding local parks and recreation programs (.8) than did Republicans (.0). Table 8. Issues of Importance by Party Qi Improving quality of public education Qe Maintaining good jobs Qb Improving local economy Qh Protecting environment Qf Enhancing police & fire protection Qg Keeping businesses in Long Beach Qd Preventing local tax increases Qc Reducing traffic congestion Qa Expanding parks and recreation programs Party Dem Rep Other DTS.08..99.0.0.9..0...8...0....9.9.8...99......0.0.0.0...0.8.8.88..89.8.8...8..8.0.8. Page 0
Perception of Long Beach Airport Perception of Long Beach Airport Q. I'd like to read you the opinions of two residents of the City. Smith and Brown disagree on their opinions regarding the Long Beach Airport. As I read their opinions, please tell me which one is closer to your own opinion. [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF SMITH AND BROWN] Smith sees the Long Beach Airport as a valuable asset in our community because it stimulates the economy, enhances tourism for our city, creates jobs, and provides a convenient transportation option for residents and visitors. Brown thinks the Long Beach Airport should be shut down because it creates traffic, increases the number of people coming through our City, and degrades our air quality. Whose opinion is closer to your own opinion? In Question, respondents were presented with two hypothetical opinions. The Smith opinion, saw the Long Beach Airport as a valuable asset in our community because it stimulates the economy, enhances tourism for our city, creates jobs, and provides a convenient transportation option for residents and visitors. The Brown opinion professed that the Long Beach Airport should be shut down because it creates traffic, increases the number of people coming through the City, and degrades our air quality. Respondents were then asked which opinion was closer to their own. Eightythree percent of the respondents agreed with the Smith opinion, while percent agreed with the Brown opinion. Two percent indicated a preference for both approaches, two percent said Neither of them, and two percent did not know, or did not provide a response. Figure. General Support for the Long Beach Airport Neither of them Combination.%.% / Refused.% Brown (Oppose LGB).% Smith (Support LGB) 8.% Page