Workshop on Advances in Public Transport Control and Operations, Stockholm, June 2017

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ADAPT-IT Analysis and Development of Attractive Public Transport through Information Technology Real-time Holding Control Strategies for Single and Multiple Public Transport Lines G. Laskaris, PhD Candidate, (University of Luxembourg) O. Cats, (TU Deft & KTH), E. Jenelius, (KTH), F. Viti (University of Luxembourg) Workshop on Advances in Public Transport Control and Operations, Stockholm, June 2017

Real Time Control of Public Transport Systems

Introduction Public transport services are confronted with high variability, coming from: Travel times; Passenger demand. Irregular services can lead to: Bunching; Long waiting time and queueing at stops; Overcrowded vehicles; Poor management of available resources. Main Objective: Maintain regularity and respond to inherent stochastic nature of operation

Control Strategies Control Strategies Offline Station Holding Stop Skipping AVL Online AFC APC Inter Station Signaling Speed Adjustment Temporal Classification Other Strategies Spatial Classification Fleet Management

Holding Strategy h2 h1 Vehicle Based h1 = h2 Holding Minimization of Travel Cost min..,

Headway Based Control Accounting for Passenger Travel Cost

Holding Criterion Main objective: Minimize the additional time spent due to holding Waiting Time (WT) : The additional waiting time due to holding passengers at the current and the downstream stops will experience. In Vehicle Time (IVT): The additional delay passengers on board experience due to holding Weighted Travel Time (TT): TT 2 WT IVT Waiting Time In Vehicle Time

Holding criterion Holding Criterion: w max,0 Consists of: Even Headway Term Passenger Ratio

Case study Line 4, Stockholm, Sweden; One of the four trunk lines; Frequency based; High passenger demand; Connections with other pt modes; Real time information available. Comparison with the real time strategy currently used Tested for 3 different demand levels

Demand Profile Number of Passengers 60 50 40 30 20 10 Demand Profile Line 4 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Stop Boarding Passengers Alighting Passengers Load Passengers Through Passenger ratio L/4Σλ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Passenger ratio [s]

Results: Key Performance Indicators - Regularity Coefficient of Variation of Headway Coefficient of Variation of Headway of the Line 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Low Demand Base Demand High Demand NC EH PC Bunching % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bunching along the Line Low Demand Base Demand High Demand NC EH PC

Coefficient of Variation of Headway per Stop Coefficient of Variation of Headway per Stop (Low Demand) Coefficient of Variation of Headway per Stop (Base Demand) Coefficient of Variation of Headway per Stop (High Demand) Coefficient of Variation of Headway 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Stop Coefficient of Variation of Headway 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Stop Coefficient of Variation of Headway 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Stop NC_50 EH_50 PB_50 NC_100 EH_100 PB_100 NC_200 EH_200 PB_200

Results: Travel Time in Route Segments First half of the route Second half of the route Average waiting time per passenger (sec) Average in vehicle delay per passenger (sec) Average weighted time per passenger (sec) Average waiting time per passenger (sec) Average in vehicle delay per passenger (sec) Average weighted time per passenger (sec) NC_50 176 102 451 213 98 524 EH_50 155 107 418 160 105 425 PC_50 154 106 414 159 103 422 NC_100 190 116 495 297 109 702 EH_100 164 122 451 189 121 499 PC_100 167 122 456 199 118 515 NC_200 190 146 526 259 131 650 EH_200 174 151 499 185 140 509 PC_200 170 150 490 183 138 503

Conclusions Main contribution: A headway based rule that regulates headway between consecutive vehicles accounting for the passengers affected by the additional time assigned. PC performs similarly to EH with less holding time for high demand; Holding time is applied mostly at the beginning of the route;

Real Time Holding Strategies for Multiple Lines

Controlling Multiple Lines Coordination between different modes and lines to reduce operator cost; Control strategies have mostly focused on transfer coordination of transferring hubs; Recently, Offline: Timetable optimization; Online: Holding on common route segments, Comparison between scheduled based approaches and frequency based and between headways (line or corridor).

Defining the characteristics of lines with common route segments

Classification of the different networks with multiple lines MERGING FORK NETWORK Lines merge after a specific point; Passengers on corridor are satisfied by all lines; No transfers. DIVERGING FORK NETWORK Lines split after a specific point; Passengers seeking for the bus that satisfies their final destination; No transfers. DOUBLE FORK NETWORK Lines merge and split; Combines characteristics of Fork and Inversed Fork ; Transfers at common part.

Holding Criteria for Multiple Line Networks Maintain regularity in all different network segments; Benefit from the joint frequency at the common part; Account for the passenger cost and the different behavior of the passengers at the different part; Main objective: Optimize the additional travel time (waiting and in vehicle time) due to holding. Criteria vary according to the type of network and the type of stop;

Merging Fork Criteria Branches Branches Passengers can board to every vehicle arriving at the stop and gradually vehicles from both lines should make the transition from branch to corridor. Holding Criterion: w k max θ 1 u 1 θu ET k1 ET k ET k ET k1 2 θ 2 u 2 θu ET k1 ET k ET k ET k1 2 L k N 4 b N nm1 λm,n N N mj mn nm1 λm,n b 1,0 Demand: θ,,, and θ 1θ Distance: u and u 1u k+1 k k 1

Merging Fork Criteria: Shared Transit Corridor Trunk Passengers are served by every bus serving the stop regardless the line Holding Criterion: w max ET ET ET ET 2 L 4,0 λ, k+1 k+1 k k 1 k 1 k+2 k+1 k k 1 k 2

Trunk Diverging Fork Criteria: Shared Transit Corridor Vehicles of lines interact and there are passengers seeking for a specific line Holding Criterion: w maxθ ET ET ET ET 2 θ ET ET ET ET 2 θ ET ET ET ET 2 4 λ, λ, λ, L,0 θ k+1,, k, k 1,, k+1 Demand based weights: θ,,,,, k k 1 θ,,,,

Diverging Fork Criteria: Branches Branches No interaction with other line, single line criterion can be used Holding Criterion: w max ET ET ET ET 2 L 4,0 λ,

In Progress Implementing the criteria; BusMezzo Test them for a case study including high frequency lines; Evaluate the performance; Single Line performance; Joint operation performance; Compare different operation schemes; Independence; Cooperation; Extend the criteria to include transferring cost in the common route segments. Where to transfer? Favor regularity or direct transfers?