PLAN MAESTRO DE TRANSPORTE SOSTENIBLE EN GUATEMALA 18 de Octubre, Club Alemánd Dr. Niklas Sieber Transport Economist Regional Planner www.niklas-sieber.de
Plan Maestro de Transporte 2 Agenda 1. Transport issues in Guatemala 2. Mass Transit options 3. Strategies for sustainable mobility 4. A Sustainable Transport Masterplan
Plan Maestro de Transporte 3 Traffic in Guatemala Annual Growth Vehicle Fleet: 5.6% 13 years: double traffic => Investments in roads will not solve the problem!
Plan Maestro de Transporte 4
Plan Maestro de Transporte 5 Guatelmala s majority rides buses Only 23% of trips are in private vehicles => 77% walk, cycle or ride buses Buses are Uncomfortable Unsafe Slow (< 10km/h) Unreliable Uncomplete network
Plan Maestro de Transporte 6 Financing public transport Fares not covering operational costs =>Subsidies Overburdening of municipal household Transport expenditures on income: Average: 11% 2 children: 31% No single tariff system
Plan Maestro de Transporte 7 Environment and Safety Air pollution Climate Change Accidents
Plan Maestro de Transporte 8 MASS TRANSIT OPTIONS
Plan Maestro de Transporte 9 Mass Transit Modes Suburban Rail Metro Light Rail Transit (LRT) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Tramways CAPACITY Cable Cars
Plan Maestro de Transporte 10 Comparison of capacities Tramway/Cable Car 5,000 BRT (single lane) 15,000 BRT (double lane) 35,000 Light Rail Transit Capacity needed for Mixco? 40,000 Metro 80,000 Commuter Rail 120,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 pphd Passengers per hour and direction Source: Sieber/Olaf Scholz-Knobloch
Plan Maestro de Transporte 11 Cable Cars Advantage: Low investment costs Good safety Litttle constraints through settlements Bridging of deep valleys Disadvantage: Low capacities
Plan Maestro de Transporte 12 Plaza Berlin Zona 21 Cable Car: Distance 1.9 km Travel time: 6 Minutes Travel by car: Distance 12 km Travel time: 23 Minutes Proposal by Jorge Palacios, EMETRA
Plan Maestro de Transporte 13
Plan Maestro de Transporte 14 Bus Rapid Transit Medium Capacities Advantage: low investment costs fast implementation Disadvantage: double lane systems need much space
Plan Maestro de Transporte 15 Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba Exclusive right of way 60 buses per hour 250 passengers per bus => 15,000 passengers per hour and direction
Plan Maestro de Transporte 16 Light Rail Transit Flexible capacities => low to medium Medium investment costs Advantage: very flexible design at grade, elevated, tunnel increase of capacities possible Disadvantes: More expensive than BRT
Plan Maestro de Transporte 17 Capacities of LRT Linea 1 in Monterey, Mexico Planned: 40 trains/hour Planned: 30 trains/hour 4 vehicles per train Planned: 30 trains/hour 2010: 14 trains/hour 3 vehicles per train 2000: 12 trains/hour 1998: 11 trains/hour 1992: 10 trains/hour 2 vehicles per train 1991: 6 trains/hour 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Capacity pphd
Plan Maestro de Transporte 18 Metro Advantage: Disadvantage: High transport volumes High investment costs, especially when subterranean Suburban Rail Advantage: Disadvantage: Very high transport volumes High investment costs, especially when subterranean lower frequency compared to Metro
Plan Maestro de Transporte 19 Comparison of investment costs Metro rail: London (Jubilee Line ext.) Metro rail: Hong Kong Monorail: Las Vegas 101.6 Metro rail: Caracas (Line 4) 90.3 Elevated rail: Bangkok (BTS) 73.9 Elevated rail: Kuala Lumpur (PUTRA ) 50 Metro rail: Madrid (1999 extension) 42.8 Metro rail: Mexico (Line B) 40.9 LRT: Los Angeles (Gold Line) 37.8 LRT: Portland 35.2 LRT: Bordeaux 20.5 BRT: Pittsburgh, USA 19.8 LRT: Lyon 18.9 LRT: San Diego 17.2 LRT: Tunis 13.3 BRT: Bogotá 9.2 BRT: Los Angeles, USA 7.2 BRT: Houston, USA 6.2 BRT: Bogotá (Phase I) 5.3 BRT: Miami, USA 4.6 BRT: Sao Paulo 3 BRT: Curitiba 2.5 BRT: Las Vegas (Max) 1.7 BRT: Quito (Eco-Via Line) 1.2 BRT: Porto Alegre 1 BRT: Taipei 0.5 Metro LRT BRT 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 million U S$/km Data: Wright (2004): Mass Transit, Gtz Training Course, United States General Accounting Office (2001): GAO- 01-984
Plan Maestro de Transporte 20 Cost for vertical alignment All-in cost for Metro systems 200 180 Compared to at-grade systems elevated systems are 2-2.5 times more expensive, underground systems are 4-6 times more expensive. Million US$ (2000) per km 160 Min 140 Max 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 At-grade Elevated Underground Source: Halcrow Fox 2000
Plan Maestro de Transporte 21 STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Plan Maestro de Transporte 22 Sustainable Transport Principle
Plan Maestro de Transporte 23 Transport Demand Management Push: Make cars less attractive Parking Management Road Pricing Fuel and vehicle taxation Traffic regulation Pull: Make PT and NMT more attractive Extension of networks Increase frequencies Improvement of speed and comfort Traffic safety
Plan Maestro de Transporte 24 Walking is an important transport mode Walking is healthy Costs are low Safe infrastructure needed Poor walk more than rich Curitiba, Brazil
Plan Maestro de Transporte 25 Bicycle Advantage: Disadvantage : low cost, environmentally friendly, healthy fast 10-25km/h only short distances 5-10km Copenhagen 55% use the bike at least once per day 41% commute to work Trend increasing
Plan Maestro de Transporte 26 Pedal Electric Cycle (PEDELEC)
Plan Maestro de Transporte 27 Capacities of different modes
Plan Maestro de Transporte 28 Intermodal Connections Access to public transport by walking, bicycle or bus
Plan Maestro de Transporte 29 Transit Oriented Development Urban planning to avoid car traffic Dense settlement structures along public transport corridors (see right hand: Curitiba) Mixed landuse on the level of urban quarters (barrios) => Non motorised transport
Things we want to avoid Plan Maestro de Transporte 30
Plan Maestro de Transporte 31 PLAN MAESTRO DE TRANSPORTE SOSTENIBLE EN GUATEMALA First Ideas
Plan Maestro de Transporte 32 Coherent transport planning is needed Muddling through (salir del paso) Rational planning according agreed targets PRESENT Short term planning Island solutions Long term vision 2040 Integration of modes FUTURE Planning of single projects Prioritisation of future investments Focus on private vehicles Optimisation of modal split
Plan Maestro de Transporte 33 Regional Integration Metropolitan Area of Guatemala Regional Transport Planning Cooperation? Public Transport Agency?
Plan Maestro de Transporte 34 Participatory Process Transparency of the procedure Intensive stakeholder involvement Steering Committee with representatives from public and private sector Frequent communication: Website, Facebook, Twitter Demonstrations in Stuttgart against a new railway station Mediation process
Plan Maestro de Transporte 35 Possible Goals Access for all Congestion Accessibility Transport Costs Speed Comfort Air Pollution Climate Change Public Health Accidents Security Public Space
Plan Maestro de Transporte 36 Procedure Goal Formulation of targets Development of scenarios Stakeholder Involvement Model Transport model calculations Assessment of scenarios Plan Action Prioritisation of measures Investment planning Action Plan Terms of Reference Seek sources of financing Stakeholder Involvement Timeframe: 2 years
Plan Maestro de Transporte 37 Assessment of Scenarios Costs and Benefits Economic Impacts Accessibility Impacts Social Impacts Congestion Traffic Safety Emissions
Plan Maestro de Transporte 38 Prioritisiation and Investment Planning Ranking of measures according to achievement of targets 1 Prioritisation according to cost/benefit ratio 2 Investment plan for next 20 years 3 Action plan for 5 years 4 5 Terms of Reference for Feasibility Studies Identification of funding sources 6 7 Staffing requirements in administration
Plan Maestro de Transporte 39 Sources of funding External Mobilise your City World Bank Global Environmental Facility Interamerican Development Bank JICA Internal Central government Municipalities Road Pricing Fuel taxation Cost covering transport tariffs Public Private Partnerships
Plan Maestro de Transporte 40 Ulm: now and then
Plan Maestro de Transporte 41 More information on sustainable urban transport www.sutp.org
Plan Maestro de Transporte 42 My special advice for Guatemala Gracias por su atencion Picture: Paul Starkey Schoolbus in Bangalore, India Dr. Niklas Sieber Heidestraße 47 70469 Stuttgart Office + 49 711 / 806 3269 Mobile + 49 178 / 723 3548 niklas.sieber@gmx.de www.niklas-sieber.de