Economic Outlook 2007-09 09 U.S., Southeast Florida ULI Southeast Florida/Caribbean January 25, 2007 Stan Geberer, Associate Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817
U.S. Forecast Summary 2006 2009 2 nd Half of 2006 low point of cycle Employment growth driving consumption higher, but it s slowing Housing slowdown and high energy prices sap consumer spending in 2 nd half 2007 Soft Landing/below trend growth Housing bubble deflates Lower interest rates and weak dollar prop up the economy 2008 recovery and strong growth 2009 Lower interest rates stimulate growth Main forecast risk energy price spike 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2
Florida s s Residential Housing Markets Reaching the bottom of the cycle Shape of recovery varies significantly by market and by product Orlando strongest and Ft. Myers and Miami are the weakest Single-family market stabilizing, but condo market is in serious trouble in many areas Land market particularly risky Property taxes obstacles no consensus this session Insurance Reform 5%-25% overall rate reduction Doubles reinsurance to $32b, improves availability Expand Citizens policy offerings Allows direct competition with other companies 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 3
Economic Impact of Disasters in $2005 Billions Disaster Area Loss Aid Aid/Loss Ivan Gulf $13.8 $13.6 99% 9/11 NY/DC $86.0 $84.0 98% LA Quake LA $33.0 $19.0 58% Midwest Floods MN-MO $15.0 $8.0 53% Andrew Miami $48.0 $32.0 67% Hugo Charleston $19.0 $10.0 53% Katrina Gulf $120.0 $75.0 63% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 4
RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION 8.30 6.30 4.30 2.30 0.30-1.70 02Q1 02Q3 03Q1 03Q3 04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 GDP INFLATION 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 5
GROWTH IN REAL GDP 110.00 IN BILLIONS OF 2000$ 60.00 10.00-40.00 q205 q305 q405 q106 q206 q306 Cons Inv Ch Inv. Net Ex Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 6
GROWTH IN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 345 245 145 45-55 -155 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 7
Consumer Confidence Index University of Michigan 1966=100 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 8
Value of the Dollar 130 125 120 115 110 105 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 9
U.S. HOUSING STARTS Annual Rate in Millions 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 10
Oil Prices Acquisition Cost for U.S. Refiners 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 11
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12
Different Areas Affected Very Differently States in Black and Red will have Recessions 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 13
Consumer Price Index % Change Month-to to-month 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Fed Target -0.20-0.40-0.60 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep CPI Core 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 14
INTEREST RATES 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000M1 2000M8 2001M3 2001M10 2002M5 2002M12 2003M7 2004M2 2004M9 2005M4 2005M11 2006M6 FYFF FYGT10 Mortgage 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 15
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 16
Dramatic Shift in Fiscal Policy Return of Structural Deficits Complete shift in fiscal policy From surplus of $250 B FY 2000-01 To deficit of $380 B FY 2004-05 Stimulus is $630B Deficits OK when economy weak but not OK when economy strengthens Deficits have become structural It s not just the tax cuts either 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 17
Annual Growth in Real Federal Spending By Administration 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 18
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 19
Structural Deficit Outlays and Revenue as a % GDP 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Outlays 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Revenues 2001 2002 2003 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 20
Federal Budget Deficit CBO On Budget Deficit 1/04 150-50 -250-450 -650-850 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 OMB Baseline OMB Most Likely 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 21
INTEREST RATES 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00-1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 FYFFQ FYGT10Q Mortgage 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 22
GDP AND INFLATION (Percent growth SAAR) 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2002q1 2002q3 2003q1 2003q3 2004q1 2004q3 2005q1 2005q3 2006q1 2006q3 2007q1 2007q3 2008q1 2008q3 GDP INFLATION 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 23
Projection for Materials Prices Building Material Fishkind Projected Increase through December Simonson Projected Increase through December 2006 2006 Iron and Steel 4% to 5% Flat Lumber 3% to 4% Lower over sam Drywall 7% to 10% < 5% Concrete Products 7% to 10% 10% to 15% Roofing Materials 6% to 9% 0% over same m Unskilled Labor 3% to 4% 4% Skilled Labor 4% to 6% 4% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 24
Lumber Prices Before and After Hurricane Charley Charley 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 25
Property Market Trends 2000-2004 2004 Residential properties Historically high sales of owner occupied housing of all types esp. single-family Strong demand for development land Rapid increases in prices Non residential properties suffered from substantial deterioration in NOI Rising vacancy rates Pressure on lease rates Cap rates fell faster than NOI Property valuations increased THIS PHASE IS OVER! 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 26
Property Market Trends 2006-09 09 Lower interest rates Escalating property insurance rates Higher property taxes Rising cap rates Improving NOI mitigated by taxes & insurance Little appreciation in non residential property values Residential values stabilize and stop appreciating but no bubble burst Overbuilding in condominiums Land loans greatest risk 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 27
Apartment Cap Rates 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 FYGT10A Apartment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 28
Office Cap Rates 12 10 8 6 4 2 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Office FYGT10A 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 29
Industrial Cap Rate 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Industrial FYGT10A 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 30
Retail Cap Rate 11.00 9.00 7.00 5.00 3.00 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 FYGT10A 2002 2004 Retail 2006 2008 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 31
U.S. Markets with Highest Completions 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 32
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 33
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 34
Is There a Housing Bubble in Florida? (in 000s) YES! 300 250 200 150 100 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Permits Households Starts 2003 2004 2005 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 35
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 36
Recent Study Claims Florida Housing Prices are Overvalued 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 37
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 38
New Single-Family Home Closings 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Volume 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Value 2008 2009 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 39
Existing Single-Family Homes 400,000 $115,000 350,000 $95,000 300,000 $75,000 250,000 $55,000 200,000 150,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Volume 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Value 2008 2009 $35,000 $15,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 40
New Condominiums (New/New and Conversions) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Volume 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Value 2007 2008 2009 21,000 16,000 11,000 6,000 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 41
Existing Condominiums 110,000 $30,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Volume 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Value 2008 2009 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 42
Number of Respondents By Gender Market Respondents %Male %Female Tampa 183 35% 65% Orlando 174 56% 44% West Palm Beach 111 59% 41% Fort Myers-Naples 112 46% 54% Broward 110 52% 48% Miami-Dade County 130 54% 46% Sarasota County 110 41% 59% Rest of Florida 159 55% 45% All of Florida 1089 50% 50% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 43
Good Time to Buy a Home? Do You Think That Now Is A Good Time Or A Bad Time To Buy A House? 60% Good Time Bad Time Not Sure 50% 40% 30% % 20% 10% Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida 0% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 44
Forecast for Home Values Over The Next 12 Months What Do You Expect The Value Of Homes In Your Community To Do? 80% Increase Remain the same Decrease 70% 60% 50% 40% % 30% 20% 10% Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach 0% Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 45
Details on Price Projections Market Significantly Increase (5%+) Increase a little (1-4 %) Remain the same Decrease a little (1-4%) Significantly decrease (5%+) Tampa 24% 37% 19% 16% 4% Orlando 20% 36% 18% 20% 6% West Palm Beach 20% 38% 20% 19% 3% Fort Myers-Naples 15% 37% 21% 22% 5% Broward 12% 36% 21% 25% 6% Miami-Dade County 30% 34% 13% 16% 7% Sarasota County 10% 28% 23% 24% 15% Rest of Florida 33% 35% 18% 11% 3% All of Florida 22% 36% 19% 18% 5% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 46
Obstacles to Home Ownership How Big Of An Obstacle Would You Say Each Of The Following Is When Purchasing A Hom e? % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Affordability Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida Complexity of the real estate process (closing paperwork, etc.) The loan process Assembling a qualified real estate team (realtor, real estate attorney, appraiser, etc.) 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 47
Home Owners Biggest Concerns 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 48
IMPACT OF THE HURRICANES ON FLORIDA Areas not Directly Hit by Eye of Storm Positive economic impact from Insurance proceeds Reconstruction of infrastructure Short term effects for the most part Areas directly hit by Eye Major devastation and destruction Local economy disrupted Some out-migration to other areas Longer Term Impacts on Florida and Coastal Area Real Estate Major insurance cost increases impacting values! Local governments will have to budget for more cleanup Some marginal impact on demand 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 49
Georgia Growth Population and Employment 200 100 0-100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 50
Alabama Growth Population and Employment 50 30 10-10 -30 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 51
South Carolina Growth Population and Employment 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Employment Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 52
Tennessee Growth Population and Employment 58 8-42 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 53
Florida Growth Population and Employment 425 325 225 125 25-75 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 54
Employment Growth By MSA 000s of Jobs last 12 months Jax, 21,200 Orlando, 47,800 W.Palm, 21,100 Ft. Lauderdale, 34,200 Miami, 21,700 Tampa, 40,500 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 55
FLORIDA POPULATION GROWTH (000s) 420 370 320 270 220 170 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 56
FLORIDA HOUSING STARTS 200 150 100 50 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 Single-Family 2000 Multifamily 2003 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 57
Non Residential Construction Put in Place Millions of Square Feet 120 100 80 60 40 20-1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 58
Growth in Air Passengers 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% Year-over over-year % July/August -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% Orlando Ft. Lauderdal Miami Las Vegas Seattle Dulles Dallas SF LAX 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 59 Chi
Forecast for Visitors to Florida Year Volume Change % Change 1997 89 3.60 4.2% 1998 90.4 1.60 1.8% 1999 94.5 4.10 4.5% 2000 97.1 2.60 2.8% 2001 96 (1.30) -1.3% 2002 95 (0.60) -0.6% 2003 97 1.90 2.0% 2004 101 3.40 3.5% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 60
TOURIST ARRIVALS (in Millions) 110 105 100 95 90 85 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 61
Growth in Visitors (In Millions) 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) (2.00) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 62
STRUCTURAL CHANGE & NEAR TERM PROSPECTS Orlando MSA Spectacular job creation power area Rebound in tourism/conventions Major capital programs continue Convention Center expansion Airport expansion Western beltway Wekiva link Defense spending stimulates area Rebound in non residential construction 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 63
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Sources of Orlando s Employment Growth 0 January March May Con Man Trade Fin Prof Ed/Hth Hos p Gov 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 64
Growth in Deplaning Airline Passengers Orlando 70.00% 50.00% 30.00% 10.00% -10.00% -30.00% -50.00% Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 65
OVERNIGHT VISITORS TO ORLANDO MSA 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 66
ORLANDO MSA GROWTH 76,000 66,000 56,000 46,000 36,000 26,000 16,000 6,000-4,000 1999 2000 2001 Population 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 67
Orlando New Single-Family 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 1,400 1,200 Volume Value $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 68
Orlando Existing Single-Family 5,700 5,200 4,700 4,200 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 3,700 3,200 Volume Value $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 69
New Condominiums 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 0 Volume Value $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 70
Existing Condominiums 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 0 Volume Value $225,000 $175,000 $125,000 $75,000 $25,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 71
ORLANDO MSA HOUSING STARTS 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 72
Commercial Construction Put In Place in Square Feet 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2006 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial W arehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 73
Major Driver s s of Orange County s Economy and Prospects Rebound in tourism/conventions Renaissance of downtown core Major capital programs Airport, Beltway are Orlando/Orange County projects Defense spending stimulates Rebound in non residential construction 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 74
Orange County Growth Population & Employment 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 75
Orange County Growth Households v. Starts 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 76
Orange County New Homes $360,000 $310,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $260,000 $210,000 Value Sales 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 77
Orange County Existing Homes $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $190,000 Value Sales 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 78
Orange County New Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $245,000 $235,000 $225,000 $215,000 $205,000 $195,000 $185,000 $175,000 $165,000 $155,000 Value Sales 1,000 800 600 400 200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 79 0
Orange County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Value Sales 350 300 250 200 150 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 80
Orange County Housing Starts 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 81
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 82
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 83
Orange County Non Residential Construction In Square Feet 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 84
QUESTIONS?
Major Drivers for Seminole County s s Economy Major suburban office nodes on I-4 Corridor Altamonte, Lake Mary, Heathrow High tech consulting and business services High end residential Strong regional shopping nodes Dwindling land area for development 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 86
Seminole County Growth Population & Employment 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1995 19 96 1997 19 98 19 99 2000 2001 20 02 2003 2004 20 05 2006 2007 20 08 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 87
Seminole County Seminole County New Homes New Home Closings $360,000 $310,000 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 $260,000 $210,000 Value Sales 350 300 250 200 150 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 88
$290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 Seminole County Seminole County Existing Homes Existing Home Closings Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Value Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Sales Feb-06 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 89
Seminole County Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 2004 2003 2002 2001 2008 2007 2006 2005 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 90
Seminole County Non Residential Construction 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 in Square Feet 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 91
Osceola County Major Drivers Bedroom community for tourism/convention center node in Orange County Center of hispanic migration to area Heavy Puerto Rican inflows have changed demography and cyclical performance Hispanic retirement area booming Relatively lower price points for MSA Relatively under developed commercial support systems 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 92
Osceola County Growth Population & Employment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 93
Osceola County Household Growth v. Starts 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 94
Osceola County New Homes $330,000 $280,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $230,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $180,000 Value Sales 660 560 460 360 260 160 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 95
Osceola County Existing Homes $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 Value Sales 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 96
Osceola County New Condo $235,000 $185,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $135,000 $85,000 Value Sales 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 97
Osceola County Existing Condo $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $160,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 98 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30
Osceola County Housing Starts 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 99
Osceola County Non Residential Construction 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 in Square Feet - 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Re tail Local Re tail Re gional Hote l Office Ins t Govt Indus trial Warehouse 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 100
Lake County Growth Population & Employment 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 101
Lake County Lake County New Homes New Home Closings $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 $200,000 $150,000 Value Sales 550 500 450 400 350 300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 102
$470,000 $420,000 $370,000 $320,000 $270,000 $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 Lake County Lake County Existing Homes Existing Home Closings Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Value Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Sales Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 900 800 700 600 500 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 103
Lake County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Single Fam ily M ultifam ily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 104
Orlando MSA Apartment Market Overview
Apartment Market High Occupancy and Limited Supply Mean Opportunity Exists Occupancy rates at all time high of 96.1% Strong job creation and household formations Conversion have reduced supply Rental rates rising Available units declined in face of strong demand units available dropped 3,000 over last 12-months Metrowest area benefits from location in tourism area where strongest job growth is occurring and were conversions are removing units Job quality improving with rise of business services jobs Construction volume is very low 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 106
Occupancy and Units Available for Rent Orlando MSA 155,000 145,000 135,000 125,000 115,000 105,000 95,000 85,000 75,000 Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Units Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Occupancy Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 97.00% 95.00% 93.00% 91.00% 89.00% 87.00% 85.00% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 107
Low Volume of Apartment Construction Volume of units under construction very low Unusual for a period of strong employment growth Low interest rates and large supplies of single-family homes are part of the reason But rising interest rates and slowing construction are bringing this to an end 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 108
QUESTIONS?
DADE COUNTY Economies of major Latin American trading partners good Tourism and convention business recovered strongly Business & Internet hub for Latin America Strongest areas airport, beaches, north and towards Homestead Redevelopment activity strong Severe overbuilding of condominiums 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 110
DADE COUNTY GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT & POPULATION 34,000 24,000 14,000 4,000-6,000-16,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 111
Dade County Sources of Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0-1,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 112
Miami-Dade County New Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $590,000 $540,000 $490,000 $440,000 $390,000 $340,000 $290,000 $240,000 $190,000 Value Sales 975 875 775 675 575 475 375 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 113
Miami-Dade County Existing Homes $450,000 $430,000 $410,000 $390,000 $370,000 $350,000 $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Value Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Sales Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 114
Miami-Dade County New Condo $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $350,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 115
Miami-D ade C ounty Existing C ondo $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 116
Dade County s s Housing Market Oversupplied Based on Housing Starts v. Households 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 117
DADE COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 118
DADE COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Square Feet 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 119
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 120
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 121
Ft. Lauderdale MSA Structural Change and Near Term Prospects Approaching build out Western Broward booms along I-75 Infrastructure investment challenges roads and schools Airport expansion big plus Renaissance of downtown Ft. Lauderdale Hollywood Beach rebuilds Slot machine gambling 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 122
BROWARD COUNTY POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2001 2000 1999 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2009 2008 2007 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 123
Broward County Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0-1,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 124
Broward County New Homes $820,000 $720,000 $620,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 $520,000 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $420,000 $320,000 Value Sales 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 125
Broward County Existing Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $395,000 $385,000 $375,000 $365,000 $355,000 $345,000 $335,000 $325,000 $315,000 Value Sales 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 126
Broward County New Condo $345,000 $325,000 $305,000 $285,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $265,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $245,000 $225,000 Value Sales 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 127
Broward County Existing Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 Value Sales 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 128
Broward s s Housing Market Balanced Based on Housing Starts v. Household Growth 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 129
15,000 10,000 5,000 BROWARD COUNTY 0 1999 HOUSING STARTS 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 130
BROWARD COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 15,000,000 SQUARE FEET 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 131
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 132
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 133
QUESTIONS?
Broward County Permitted square feet of Retail Space v. Population Growth 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 47,000 42,000 37,000 32,000 27,000 22,000 Stores Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 135
Broward County -- Ratio Store area / Population growth 80.00 75.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 136
PALM BEACH COUNTY STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Broward approaching buildout Condominium overbuilding Affordable housing and competitive position Scripps.. The muted impact Retirement and tourism remain key drivers Growth management challenges, land availability, and land costs Redevelopment opportunities Growth shifts north but not to Jupiter or Stuart PGA Corridor focus of growth 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 137
PALM BEACH GROWTH IN POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 138
Palm Beach County Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 139
Palm Beach County New Homes $815,000 $715,000 $615,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $515,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $415,000 $315,000 Value Sales 800 700 600 500 400 300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 140
Palm Beach County Existing Homes $1,500,000 $1,300,000 3,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $700,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $500,000 $300,000 Value Sales 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 141
Palm Beach County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 142
Palm Beach County Existing Condo $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 143
Palm Beach s s Housing Market Starts v. Household Growth 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 144
PALM BEACH COUNTY 15,000 HOUSING STARTS 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 145
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 146
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 147
PALM BEACH COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (SQUARE FEET) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 148
QUESTIONS? Slides available at Fishkind.Com
QUESTIONS?
Tampa Bay STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND PROSPECTS New roadway corridors stimulate growth Veterans Freeway Suncoast Parkway Return of job creation Pinellas County Approaching buildout Employment center Pasco County flourishes Housing bubble unwinds 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 151
Tampa Bay Growth in Population and Employment 49,990 39,990 29,990 19,990 9,990 (10) 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 152
Tampa Bay Housing Starts 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2007 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 153
Tampa Bay Non Residential Construction in Square Feet 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 154
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 155
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 156
PINELLAS COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 157
Pinellas County New Homes $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 158
Pinellas County Existing Homes $370,000 $320,000 $270,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $220,000 $170,000 Value Sales 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 159
Pinellas County New Condo $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $300,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 410 360 310 260 210 160 110 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 160
Pinellas County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 161
PINELLAS COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 162
Pinellas County Non Residential Construction Square Feet Put in Place 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 163
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 164
Is there a Housing Bubble in Hillsborough County? 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 165
Hillsborough County New Homes $670,000 1050 $570,000 950 $470,000 850 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $370,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $270,000 $170,000 Value Sales 750 650 550 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 166
Hillsborough County Existing Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 Value Sales 2,700 2,200 1,700 1,200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 167
Hillsborough County New Condo $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 $180,000 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $160,000 $140,000 Value Sales 730 630 530 430 330 230 130 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 168 30
Hillsborough County Existing Condo $340,000 $290,000 $240,000 350 300 250 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $190,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $140,000 $90,000 Value Sales 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 169
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 170
Hillsborough County Non Residential Construction Square Feet 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 171
Pasco County Growth Population and Employment 19,500 14,500 9,500 4,500-500 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 172
Pasco County Growth of Households v. Starts 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Singles Mulits Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 173
Pasco County New Homes $950,000 $750,000 $550,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $350,000 $150,000 Value Sales 900 800 700 600 500 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 174
Pasco County Existing Homes $515,000 1,700 1,500 $415,000 1,300 $315,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $215,000 $115,000 Value Sales 1,100 900 700 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 175
Pasco County New Condo $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales 120 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 176 80 60 40 20 0
Pasco County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 177 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Pasco County Housing Starts 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 178
Pasco County Non Residential Construction in Square Feet 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 179
Hernando County Growth Population and Employment 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 180
Hernando County Residential Market Balance 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 181
Hernando County New Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 Value Sales 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 182 50 0
Hernando County Existing Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Value Sales 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 183
Hernando County Housing Starts 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 184
Hernando County Non Residential SqFt Installed 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 185
QUESTIONS?
Citrus County Growth Population and Employment 3,500 2,500 1,500 500 (500) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 187
Citrus County Housing Starts 2,000 1,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Singles Multis 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 188
JACKSONVILLE MSA - STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Competitive strengths continue in Finance, insurance, back office functions BRAC a plus and future potential with Cecil Field Increasingly attractive to retirees Major development activity Southern Duval County Northern St. Johns County Clay County near the River 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 189
Jacksonville MSA Growth Population & Employment 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1999 20 00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population Em ploym ent 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 190
Jacksonville MSA Housing Starts 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Single Family M ultifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 191
Jacksonville MSA Commercial Construction (square feet) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 192
Overnight Visitors 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 193
Deplaning Passengers Growth Year-Over Over-Year 15.00% 5.00% -5.00% -15.00% -25.00% -35.00% -45.00% May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 194
Jacksonville MSA -- Permitted square feet of Retail Space v. Population Growth 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Stores Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 195
Duval County Growth Population & Employment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 196
Duval County Starts v. Household Growth 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 197
Duval County Housing Starts 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 198
Duval County Commercial Construction (square feet) 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 199
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 200
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 201
St. Johns County Growth Population & Employment 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 202
St. Johns County Households v. Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 203
St. Johns County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 204
St. Johns County Commercial Construction (square feet) 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 205
Clay County Growth Population & Employment 9,500 7,500 5,500 3,500 1,500-500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 206
Clay County Households v. Housing Starts 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Single Family Multifamily Households 2007 2008 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 207
Clay County Growth Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2 006 2 005 2 004 2 003 2 002 2 001 2 000 1 999 2 008 2 007 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 208
Clay County Commercial Construction (square feet) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 209
NASSAU COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0-1,000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 210
Nassau County Households v. Housing Starts 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Single Family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 211
Nassau County Housing Starts 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 212
Nassau County Commercial Construction (square feet) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 213
Flagler County Growth Population & Employment 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 214
Flagler County New Homes $455,000 $405,000 $355,000 $305,000 $255,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $205,000 $155,000 $105,000 Value Sales 250 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 215 50 0
Flagler County Existing Homes $338,000 1250 $288,000 $238,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $188,000 $138,000 Value Sales 1050 850 650 450 250 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 216
Flagler County New Condo $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $400,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $300,000 $200,000 Value Sales 120 100 80 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 217 60 40 20 0
Flagler County Existing Condo $860,000 $760,000 $660,000 $560,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $460,000 $360,000 $260,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 218 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Flagler County Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 219
QUESTIONS?
MANATEE COUNTY STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NEAR TERM PROSPECTS Development boom along I-75 corridor and in North County Mix of retirees and primary households Retirement growth remains strong Pricing makes Manatee attractive Politics becoming more difficult Infrastructure challenges 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 221
Manatee County Population and Employment Growth 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 222
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Is There A Housing Bubble in Manatee County? 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 223
Manatee County New Homes $475,000 $425,000 $375,000 $325,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $275,000 $225,000 $175,000 Value Sales 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 224
Manatee County Existing Homes $495,000 $445,000 $395,000 $345,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $295,000 $245,000 $195,000 Value Sales 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 225
Manatee County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $3,160,000 $2,660,000 $2,160,000 $1,660,000 $1,160,000 $660,000 $160,000 Value Sales 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 226
Manatee County Existing Condo $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 $230,000 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $180,000 $130,000 Value Sales 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 227 50
Manatee County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 228
Non Residential Construction 4,000,000 Square Feet Put in Place 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 229
STRUCTURAL CHANGE Sarasota 2050? SARASOTA Lack of land in Lee and Collier Counties High quality/resort oriented areas within 1-hour of airports favored Naples comes to Sarasota Growth focused in South County 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 230
SARASOTA COUNTY GROWTH POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 231
Sarasota County Household Growth v Starts 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 232
Sarasota County New Homes $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 233
Sarasota County Existing Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 234
Sarasota County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $630,000 $580,000 $530,000 $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 $230,000 $180,000 Value Sales 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 235 50
Sarasota County Existing Condo $450,000 $420,000 $390,000 $360,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $330,000 $300,000 $270,000 Value Sales 450 350 250 150 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 236 50
SARASOTA COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 237
SARASOTA NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (Square feet) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 238
QUESTIONS?
LEE COUNTY - STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Tourism prospects strong Expansion of Airport Booming population in Lee County Insurance costs Property taxes Build out of coastal areas Scarcity of large undeveloped tracts of land will cause growth to peak and to move north New Interchange I-4 @ Del Prado Extension 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 240
Overnight Visitors 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 241
LEE COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 242
Is There a Housing Bubble in Lee County? 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 243
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 244
Lee County New Homes $440,000 $390,000 $340,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $290,000 $240,000 Value Sales 700 600 500 400 300 200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 245
Lee County Existing Homes $438,000 $388,000 $338,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $288,000 $238,000 $188,000 Value Sales 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 246
Lee County New Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Value Sales 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 247
Lee County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $840,000 $740,000 $640,000 $540,000 $440,000 $340,000 $240,000 $140,000 Value Sales 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 248
LEE COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 249
Lee County Non Residential Construction Put In Place (sqft( sqft) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Retail Local Retail Regional Hote l Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 250
Collier County Structural Changes and Prospects New roadways in North County stimulating commercial development Rural Land Stewardship Program East County successful so far Ave Maria Big Cypress Coastal areas built out High land prices obstacle to economic development and affordable housing 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 251
COLLIER COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 252
Collier County Household Growth v. Starts 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 253
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 254
Collier County New Homes $645,000 290 $545,000 240 $445,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $345,000 $245,000 Value Sales 190 140 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 255 90
Collier County Existing Homes $870,000 $770,000 $670,000 $570,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $470,000 $370,000 Value Sales 1,100 900 700 500 300 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 256
Collier County New Condo $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $600,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $400,000 $200,000 Value Sales 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 257
C ollier C ounty Existing C ondo $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 Dec-04 Jan-0 5 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-0 6 Jul-06 Aug-06 $330,000 $280,000 Value Sales 950 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 258
COLLIER COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 259
COLLIER COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (square feet) 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 260
Charlotte County Structural Changes and Prospects Babcock Ranch Murdock Village Lingering impact of hurricane New interchange I-4 @ Del Prado Difficult permitting environment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 261
Charlotte County Growth Population and Employment 4,500 2,500 500-1,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 262
Charlotte County New Homes Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 263 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Charlotte County Existing Homes Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 264
Charlotte County New Condo $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $200,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 265 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Charlotte County Existing Condo $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales 140 120 100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 266 80 60 40 20
1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 267