Recurrent capacity flaws: a matter of fate? Giovanni Lenti Head of Network Operations 28/01/2015
Analysing the causes En-route and airport arrival delays are recurrent in certain airspaces and airports. Obviously not a matter of fate! but a combination of several causes: Enroute: Lack of staff (ATCOs recruitment, holidays, sickness, unresolved social issues) Transition plans (system changes leading to medium/long term capacity reduction) Political issues (airspace unavailability, wars) Military activities Special events Shift of holiday destinations Traffic increase (Network average, but local variations + or -) Intruders Route charges Airports: Lack of staff (as above) Airport slots not aligned with effective runway capacity or with 20 minutes rolling hours counts in ETFMS Weather Recurrent capacity flaws 2
The en-route delay in 2014 Recurrent capacity flaws 3
Most penalising spots in 2014 (1) Example of Cyprus: Social issues, system changes, traffic increase, political issues/wars, no capacity increases also due to neighbouring ACCs. January 30th April 2014: NM working with/supporting ANSP on mitigation measures. Only 3 sectors, every day high delays. Airspace change in ENV, ready to use (up to 6 sectors) if incentive scheme successful. Incentive scheme/performance plan proposed by the DNM: negotiated, accepted and implemented. 1st May July 2014: 4 sectors open daily (5 at times) triggered strong delay reduction. Heavy military activity in the Mediterranean (conflict Israel-Palestine): capacity reductions, high delays. Recurrent capacity flaws 4
Most penalising spots in 2014 (2) Cyprus (continued): August December 2014: Situation back to normal (4/5 sectors every day except for a few days due system upgrade) Operational coordination Egypt-Cyprus improved after meeting LC-HE chaired by NM at ECTL 2015? Incentive scheme ended 31st Dec. Stable situation, delays low so far, waiting for successful negotiation between Unions/MoT, supported by the DNM for new Cypriot ANSP (by June 2015). Staff shortage in Greek ACCs (ATCO s retirement) might cause additional problem during the summer. DNM working on a solution with Greek authorities. A no delay situation only possible when political situation in Syria, Iraq and Egypt will be resolved Recurrent capacity flaws 5
The airport delay in 2014 Recurrent capacity flaws 6
Airport capacity issues: 2 examples Istanbul airport: Daily delays due to excess of hourly demand, caused by non alignment of airport slots with effective runway capacity and not considering the 20 minutes rolling hour counts. The problem is aggravated in case of capacity reduction due to weather. The NM Airport Unit working on the issue, but final decision depends on local authority. New airport (expected to be operational 2017-2019) should solve the delay problem. Zurich airport: As per Istanbul, the excess of demand is caused by non alignment of the airport slots. Aircraft Operators artificially increase flight schedules. Airport Unit and Network Operations held several meetings with Skyguide discussing the issue, proposing temporary solutions. Awaiting for agreement with Skyguide. The definitive solution depends on the local airport slot authorities. Aircraft Operators can help minimising delays by filing realistic EOBTs. Recurrent capacity flaws 7
What the NM is doing to mitigate? Strategic: Capacity plans, Axis meetings, FUA, special events/transition plans, ad-hoc or bilateral meetings with ANSPs (Head of Ops), missions to ACCs/airports, continuous support, post-operation analysis, NMOC system changes, new procedures. In case of no agreement: escalate to DNM/NDOP/NMB/DG Pre-tactical: Weekly (Axis) or ad-hoc teleconferences leading to weekend or D-1 plans Tactical (in order of priority): 1. Capacity increase 2. Sector configuration management 3. Cherry picking, STAM, Rerouteing proposals, CARA 4. Mandatory level capping scenarios 5. Mandatory rerouteing scenarios 6. ATFM regulation Slot list management (ad-hoc manual exclusions, slot manipulation) 7. Prayers Recurrent capacity flaws 8
Recurrent capacity flaws
Recurrent capacity flaws 10
Q&A Recurrent capacity flaws 11