17 November 2013 Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi President of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society) Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 1
Transport as 1) Causer of CO 2 and pollution 2) Supporter for CO 2 and pollution causers (industries) 3) Victim of climate change 4) Barrier for sustainability Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 2
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 3
Cars per 1,000 inhabitants Car Ownership 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 70 150 100 60 50 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per Capita US$ (1995) 2012/9/24 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, SUSTRAC Nagoya Nagoya University Univ. 4 Yoshi Hayashi, Sep. 2010 Bangkok 02 Seoul Beijing 00 05 95 05 London 00 95 09 80 Shanghai 95 Hong kong 95 85 Singapore (CA) Nagoya 85 05 Tokyo 95 95 05 05
Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi(1993) 5
Changes in Built-up Areas Tokyo Nagoya 0 50 km 1910 1965 1985 London Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 6
Billion Vehicles Upgrading Transport to a Key Sector 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Car Ownership Trend 1 18 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Africa Latin America Middle East Other Asia India China Eastan Europe Russia OECD ASIA Australia and NZ OECD Europe Anglo America Transport 22% Transport Other Sectors 78% Other Sectors?% Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 7
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 8
Serious Air Pollution Jointly by Industry, Household and Traffic Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 9
Air Pollution Blowing Housings Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 10
Emissions from Motorways Occupied by Lorries as a Result of Road Transport based Industrial Development Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 11
CO2 emissions from transport (Million ton) CO2 Emission Growth in Transport from Economic Growth 2000 1800 1600 1400 238 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1960 US 136 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 2007 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 204 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1992 China Japan 54 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1990 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 57 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1960 132 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 2010 GDP (trillion US $) EU 76 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1960 66 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 2010 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 12
China vs Japan 2011 Tonnage China 2011 Total ton-km 1998 1998 1990 2003 US 1998 Japan 1961 2004 199 8 1990 US 2003 GDP [tril.us$] CO 2 [bil.t-co 2 ] 2011 2011 Road ton-km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 13
Change the slope by AVOID/SHIFT/IMPORVE AVOID Efficient Supply Chain Tonnage 2011 China 2011 Total ton-km 1998 1998 1998 Japan 1961 2004 GDP [tril.us$] 2003 1990 US 1998 1990 US 2003 CO 2 [bil.t-co 2 ] SHIFT 2011 2011 Shift to rail Road ton-km Energy Efficient Vehicles IMPROVE Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 14
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 15
Strategies Means Technologies AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Transport oriented development (TOD) Poly-centric development Efficient freight distribution Railways and BRT Improvement Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians Development of electric vehicles Development of biomass fuel "Smart grid development Regulations Land-use control Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes Local circulating service Control on driving and parking Emissions standards Top-runner" approach Information Telecommuting Online shopping Lifestyle change ITS public transport operation "Eco-driving" ITS traffic-flow management Vehicle performance labeling Economy Subsidies and taxation to location Congestion Charge Cooperative fare systems Value capture Fuel tax/carbon tax Preferential taxation to lowemissions vehicles Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 16
Average speed (km/hr) Trend of Traffic Congestion in Bangkok 1990s (Before MRT Development) Introduction 2000s (After MRT Development) Photo by Hayashi, 1993 Trend of Traffic Congestion Photo by Hayashi, 2002 21.5 19.0 14.0 15.2 8.1 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17
1 st Leapfrog Thammasat Rangsit Maha Chai (80.8 km) Lam Luk Ka Bang Pu (66.5 km) Bang Yai Rat Burana (42.8 km) Salaya Hau Mak (54 km) Bang Sue Tha Phra Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km) Khae Rai Min Buri (36 km) Lat Phrao Sam Rong (30.4 km) Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center Mon Buri (32.5 km) Yod se Bang Wa (15.5 km) 10 lines, total distance 464 km Success in 3 projects More public support Government policy shift to Railway (2011) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 18
Bangkok Airport Link: Rolling Stock SA Express (4-car train) SA City Line (3-car train) Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 19
1 st Leapfrog MRTA Projects Customs 0.61% Cost (mil. Baht) Blue Line extension 82,369.14 Green Line extension 100,106.11 Pink Line 58,658.15 Orange Line 115,263.50 Yellow Line 57,466.50 Railway 82.29% 2.2 trillion Baht Road 14.47% Port 1.49% Disbursement 0.51% Source: Thailand 2020 (2013), Ministry of Transport Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 20
- Methodology for MRV in NAMAs- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 21
- Urban Transport- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 22
Urban Vision CO 2 Bangkok CO 2 Per Capita from transport 3.5t (2007) Bus 49% Car 51% Bus 38% Rail 5% Car 57% BAU Leap-Frog Rail Car 1989 2005 2020 2050 1989 1999 2010 Master Plan in 2020 Heavy Congestion BTS Sky Train 20km MRT Development 81km 10lines total 464km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 23
Urban Policy Roadmap Mitigation CO2 emissions 1.000 500 0 km 2 Trip Frequency GDP = Built-up Area AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Travel Demand (Travel Distance) Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Km/ km 2 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 1,500 1,000 0,500 0,000 GDP 400 300 200 100 0 Car/1000pop 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 Car Dependency (Modal Split) GDP Tokyo 23 Car Ownership Bangkok MA Railway Network intensity Energy Efficiency (CO 2 Emission / km) Fossil Fuel Share Fuel Efficiency Traffic Speed GDP Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 24
1 st Leapfrog 凡例 凡例 legend! kogyo_yamashita! kogyo_yamashita car rail bus truck! kogyo_yamashita Industry rail2010_2 kogyo_yamashita Present expressway rail2010_2 MRT zokusei expressway Inner-ring 1 zokusei rail2010_2 Without MRT 2Outer-ring expressway 1 2 zokusei 1 2 CO 2 :+10.7% Speed:-16.3% Without Inner-ring Roads CO 2 :+1.1% Speed:-8.0% Without Outer-ring Roads CO 2 :+0.8% Speed:-41.7% 15.2km/h 12.7km/h 14.0km/h 8.9km/h 0 25 50 CO₂ Emissions (Mt-CO₂/year) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 25
Urban Policy Roadmap km 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 MRT development timing scenario in Bangkok 1Early development 2Later development 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 MRT Master Plan Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations 9000 8000 7000 Pop/km 2 6000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 550 500 15% 26% Car ownership growth calming by rail-oriented travel habit Car/1000pop Changes from 2010 1 2 450 400 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 350 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 23% 44% 26
Urban Policy Roadmap 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities CO 2 -emission reduction Million tons 40% 25% 31% 24% 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AVOID Land-use control (3% less annual expansion of built-up area) SHIFT 4,568 km MRT development, (6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city) 23,337km BRT development (23cities, Ave.:1015km/city) IMPROVE Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%) Emission intensity of power generation (2005:1269g-CO 2 /kwh 2050: 546g-CO 27 2 /kwh)
- Inter-regional Transport- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 28
Interregional Vision Proposing Vision: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs GMS (Greater Mekong Sub region) Kyaukpyu Port Yangon Bangkok Kunming Hanoi Road(Economic Corridor) Phnom Penh Shanghai Local Cities on HSR Megacities on HSR Light Industry Advanced Industry & Commercial Heavy Industry Singapore Cities on Local Freight Rail AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Industrial Rail-Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Low-carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels 29
Interregional Vision Efficient Industrial Supply Chain Impact analysis to reduce CO 2 emissions by plant location change Current Industrial location(bangkok) Scenario 1: Priority to resilience for disaster CO 2 emission -3% Bangkok 100km Port Present Scenario 1 Proximity location of Assembly plant and supplier Scenario 2: Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia) Bangkok 530km Need of improving Production process +25% CO 2 emission Production Process Scenario 3: Priority to larger economic market(indian) To India Route 2 (2,000km) Route 1 (5,000km) Ho chi Minh City Present Yoshitsugu Scenario Hayashi, 2 Nagoya University Via Myanmar From Thailand Via Singapore -33% CO 2 emission Sea only Integrated transport Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck 30
Interregional Vision Case Study: Bangkok Hanoi Hanoi (Vetnum) (with / without) 1,000km Bangkok (Thailand) Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO 2 emission 30% time Saving With railway Railway 91.7% 40% CO 2 mitigation 30% time saving Without railway Truck 14.2% Maritime Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 31
Interregional Policy Roadmap CO2-emission reduction AVOID SHIFT New GMS-wide HSR network is necessary( km) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 32
Key Massages Transport is causer as well as victim of climate change Simultaneous achievement of Sustainability + Resilience Co-benefits We are developing robust instruments for MRV in NAMA allowing more transport projects Good signs to reverse common sense from road to rail Bangkok (Rail: 0% in 90 s 82% now) Transport can trigger innovations in styles of production(efficiency) and life (Sufficiency) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 33
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 34