Asheville Metro Economic Report Johnson Price Sprinkle PA
HIGHLIGHTS: ASHEVILLE METRO The Asheville metro area gained 2,400 more jobs than one year earlier, averaging a growth rate of 1.4 percent, continuing net positive year-over-year job growth for more than three consecutive years. Averaging 4.9 percent, Asheville s unemployment rate took the top spot as the lowest rate among all 14 N.C. metro areas, improving 2 percentage points over the same period last year. Employment gains were led largely by the Professional and Business Services sector for the second consecutive quarter; up 1,000 net new jobs. Total Hotel/Motel Sales in the county topped $62 million for the second quarter of 2014, continuing a five year trend of record high growth for the quarter. Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport continued positive growth, up 11.8 percent, or 20,704 more passengers from a year earlier. The number of existing homes sold in the second quarter was up 5 percent over the year; average home prices continued to improve, experiencing a 7.1 percent gain, averaging $274,458 for the quarter. At 2.1 percent, the same-home annual appreciation rate places Asheville sixth among the state s fourteen metros. Asheville continues to outpace the statewide appreciation rate by 0.5 percent. May 2014 saw the highest increase year-over-year in retail sales since January 2013, improving 11 percentage points over the year. 1
DETAILED ASHEVILLE METRO ANALYSIS EMPLOYMENT Asheville continued to add jobs throughout the second quarter of 2014 at a modest pace below the state for the second quarter (Figure 1). The metro area is up 2,400 more jobs than one year earlier, averaging a growth rate of 1.4 percent for a total average employment of 177,600 jobs for the quarter. 3.5% Figure 1 Total Employment Monthly Year-Year Percent Change 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2012 2013 2014 Asheville MSA North Carolina United States Source: NC Employment Security Commission 2
Asheville dropped back to the seventh fastest growing metro in the state for the second quarter of 2014 trailing both the state and national average (Figure 2). Rocky Mount was joined by Fayetteville and Jacksonville as the only N.C. metros experiencing negative job growth rates. Figure 2 2014 2Q Average North Carolina Metros Employment One-Year Percent Change Raleigh-Cary 4.3% Wilmington 3.1% Charlotte Greenville 2.0% 2.5% Durham-Chapel Hill Goldsboro Asheville Winston-Salem Greensboro-High Point 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% Burlington Hickory 0.7% 0.6% Rocky Mount Fayetteville Jacksonville -0.3% -0.4% -0.2% State Average 2.0% National Average 1.8% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Source: NC Employment Security Commission Averaging 4.9 percent for the second quarter, Asheville s unemployment rate remains well below the state and national average and continues a gradually declining trend; two percentage points below the same period last year (Figure 3). Asheville s average unemployment rate for the quarter edged out the Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh metro areas, taking the top spot as the lowest rate among all of the state s 14 metros (Figure 4). 3
Figure 3 Unemployment Rates (%) 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 North Carolina United States 5.5 Asheville 4.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2012 2013 2014 Source: NC Employment Security Commission Figure 4 Unemployment Rate (%) 2014 2Q Average Asheville Durham-Chapel Hill Raleigh-Cary 4.9 5.0 5.1 National Average 6.1% State Average 6.4% Winston-Salem Burlington Charlotte Wilmington Goldsboro 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 Jacksonville Greensboro-High Point Greenville Hickory 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 Fayetteville 7.4 Rocky Mount 9.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: NC Employment Security Commission 4
The Leisure & Hospitality industry sector rebounded from first quarter losses adding 400 jobs, while Retail Trade shed an additional 100 jobs in the second quarter. Of the 11 sectors measured in the Asheville MSA, only five experienced no gains or negative growth. These losses were significantly diminished by offsetting gains in other sectors, led primarily by Professional and Business Services as well as Health Services and Private Education. Job gains in all sectors resulted in a total of 2,400 net new jobs (Figure 5). Figure 5 Asheville Metro - 2014 2Q Major Industry Employment One-Year Change Professional & Business Services 1,000 Health Services & Private Education 700 Leisure & Hospitality Services 400 Manufacturing 300 Wholesale Trade 200 Transportation,Warehouse & Utilities 100 Construction 0 Financial Activities 0 Information 0 Retail Trade (100) Government (300) (500) - 500 1,000 Source: NC Employment Security Commission 5
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY Total employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector improved in the second quarter of 2014 adding 400 new jobs. Buncombe County Hotel/Motel Sales increased by $5.5 million, or 9.7 percent over the year (Figure 6). Activity in Hotel/Motel Sales has not experienced a quarterly year-year decline since Q4 2009. Figure 6 Buncombe County Hotel/Motel Sales Quarterly Year-Year Change ($) $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority 6
Total Hotel/Motel Sales in the county surpassed $62 million for the quarter. Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by 7.1 percent from one year earlier (Figure 7). The room rate averaged $126.64 over the quarter. 8% Figure 7 Buncombe County Average Hotel Room Rate Quarterly Year-Year Change (%) 7% 7.1% 6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 5% 4.7% 5.1% 4.5% 5.0% 4% 4.1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority 7
Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport continued its growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, up 11.8 percent, or 20,704 more passengers from one year earlier (Figure 8). 25% Figure 8 Asheville Regional Airport Total Passengers Quarterly Year-Year Change (%) 20% 17.9% 15% 14.1% 13.7% 11.8% 10% 9.0% 5% 5.0% 0% -5% -10% -15% -12.2% -12.2% -20% -25% -17.2% -20.0% -20% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 Source: Asheville Regional Airport 8
HOUSING The number of existing homes sold recovered from the first quarter decline and surpassed the same period one year earlier by 5 percent, totaling 944 homes sold. Average home sales prices increased for the fifth consecutive quarter year-over-year, improving 7.1 percent to $274,458 over Q2 2013 and bolstering support for market stabilization and strengthening home values (Figure 9). 30% Figure 9 Asheville Area Existing Home Sales Quarterly Year-Year Change (%) 28% 29% 27% 25% 20% 27% 21% 19% 15% 16% 15% 17% 10% 9% 7% 7% 5% 0% -5% 4% 2% -2% -3% 2% 3% -4% 5% -10% -15% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 Homes Sold Average Sales Price Source: NC Realtors 9
The most recent available Housing Price Index data shows the same-home annual appreciation rate at 2.1 percent, dropping the Asheville metro to sixth place among the state s 14 metros (Figure 10). Asheville outpaced the statewide appreciation rate of 1.7 percent. For the second consecutive quarter, 13 of North Carolina s metros lagged the national same-home appreciation rate of 4.9 percent. Figure 10 North Carolina Metros Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%) Durham-Chapel Hill 5.3% Charlotte 4.7% Raleigh-Cary Greenville Wilmington 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% Asheville 2.1% Burlington Greensboro-High Point 1.3% 1.1% Rocky Mount 0.5% Fayetteville Winston-Salem -1.8% -1.5% Hickory -2.5% Jacksonville -3.6% Goldsboro -4.2% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 10
Permitting for new residential units in Asheville continued positive growth in the second quarter with 376 single family units permitted, up 3.6 percent from Q2 2013 (Figure 11). The overall activity was tempered due to slower growth in multifamily unit permits; down 67 percent from 64 multifamily units in Q2 2013 to 21 units in Q2 2014 creating an overall year-over-year decline of -7 percent. The total value however, continued to strengthen year-over-year up 13.6 percent and totaling just under $90 million for the second quarter. Figure 11 Asheville Metro Residential Building Permits 450 $100,000 Total Units 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Total Value 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total Value ($1,000's) Source: U.S. Census Bureau $0 11
RETAIL SALES After a statewide contraction over the month of January, Asheville s retail sales have steadily improved through May of 2014; surpassing the statewide year-over-year percent change for February, March and April by a small margin. May 2014 saw the highest increase year-over-year since January of 2013. An 11 percent change for the month of May, just less than 7 percent higher than one year earlier, suggests strong growth for the Asheville retail market (Figure 12). 15% Figure 12 Asheville Metro Retail Sales* Trailing Twelve Month Year-Year Percent Change 10% 9% 11% 5% 0% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 7% 3% 6% 5% 4% 9% -13% -5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 10% 11% -5% -7% -10% -15% Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Asheville Metro North Carolina *Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales and use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods. Source: NC Department of Revenue 12
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