Airspace User Forum 2012 Better prediction: why we need your schedules Francis DECROLY Expert Quality Operational Specifications & Requirements Section
Why do we need Airlines schedules? Provide the Network Manager with early awareness of flight intentions from Airlines (early known traffic demand) Develop early iterations of the Network Operation Plan best reflecting the early known traffic demand Network Capability Management Network operation plan Air routes & airspace design Strategic capacity planning Seasonal / Monthly capacity planning Daily capacity planning & FUA coordination Dynamic sectorisation Anticipated D/C imbalances Pre-agreed rerouting measures Planned DCB measures limiting impact on airlines operations Traffic Demand Management DCB with minimum impact on airlines operations STAM measures Iterative process years seasons months days hours Long Term Strategic plan Medium Term Seasonal plan Monthly plan Pre-tactical daily plan Short Term Tactical plan User Forum 2012, 24-25 January 2012 2
What do we know about future Traffic demand, before the day of operation? Planning axis Years months weeks days hours Medium Term Pre-tactical Predict Traffic Demand from Historical ATC flight plans + STATFOR forecasts Commercial flight plan (schedules) Commercial identifier ADEP, ADES Departure time Arrival time Aircraft type Block-time (statistical) Enrichment process: historical demand actualized with airlines schedules data Assessment of the Network Traffic demand from flight plans Demand Data Repository (DDR) User Forum 2012, 24-25 January 2012 3
Enrichment process: targeted use cases? Historical ATC flight plans Today, we mainly rely on Historical data to anticipate future traffic demand, before the day of operations Enrichment process: historical demand actualized with airlines schedules data Challenges: accuracy, coverage, consistency and bridging between commercial and operational data But, it is not adequate to anticipate : - changes affecting the new coming season - traffic variation during transition between seasons (shoulder period) - impact of calendar events - impact of special events Targeted use cases Purpose: detect earlier New, Cancelled, Confirmed future flights, when compared to reference historical data User Forum 2012, 24-25 January 2012 4
Traffic Demand coverage: targeted data sources? + 80% + 10% Traditional scheduled airlines Low fare airlines Regional scheduled Charter airlines Fret / cargo Schedules data - From schedules consolidators (transition phase) Or - Directly from Airlines (with IATA / IACA support) : 1) Limited group of Airlines volunteers 2) Impact Assessment & Draft SLA elaboration 3) Extended collaboration with a wider group of Airlines, through individual SLA s + 10% Business aviation General aviation Airport demand -From coordinated airports in Europe, allocated airport slots collected through EUACA (EUACA : EUROPEAN UNION AIRPORT COORDINATORS ASSOCIATION) - From other airports, on ad hoc basis User Forum 2012, 24-25 January 2012 5
Targeted collaboration mechanism Planning axis months weeks days Airport slots coordination Airports Airlines Allocated airport slots Seasonal schedules: summer / winter SSIM (standard schedules information messages) Sales of passengers tickets Schedules (SSIM files) + bridge data btw Commercial & Operational flight ID s Early visibility on constraints Network Management Function (N.M) DDR Better predictive Traffic demand forecasts: historical basis, enriched with schedules & airport slots Historical Traffic samples adapted with STATFOR forecasts More robust Network plan, best reflecting early planning from airlines and airports Iterative D C B Network Capability Management Traffic Demand Management Iterative network operations plan User Forum 2012, 24-25 January 2012 6
Anticipated benefits for AO s? Early awareness of intentions Better predictive traffic demand assessment More robust Network Plan facilitating CDM with AO s Anticipated benefits for AO s Capacity adequacy with AO s plans Earlier visibility on constraints affecting their flight operations More time to dialog and improve efficiency of flight operations EUROCONTROL User Forum 2009 2012, 24-25 January 2012 7