Economic Overview 2012 Economic Development March 5, 2013
Indicator Highlights - Annual Geography 2010 2011 2012 % Change Status Unemployment Rate Toronto 9.9% 9.2% 9.6% Canada 8.0% 7.5% 7.3% Participation Rate Toronto 65.3% 64.9% 65.9% Canada 67.0% 66.8% 66.7% Total Employed Residents Toronto 1,263,820 1,266,830 1,286,050 1.5% Canada 17,041,020 17,306,220 17,507,710 1.2% Total Value of Building Permits (Billions) Toronto $6.6 $6.9 $6.2-9.7% Canada $72.4 $74.0 $80.7 9.1% Office Vacancy Rate Toronto 7.0% 5.4% 5.6% Average House Price Toronto $468,247 $501,971 $538,053 7.2% Canada Business Bankruptcies Toronto CMA 981 687 528-23.1% (2012 = 4Q's to Q3) Canada 4,072 3,643 3,360-7.8% Employment Insurance Recipients Toronto 444,170 351,150 312,260-11.1% Canada 7,018,920 5,942,320 5,475,620-7.9% Consumer Price Index (2002=100) Toronto 116.5 120.0 121.8 1.5% Canada 116.5 119.9 121.7 1.5% Retail Sales (Billions) Toronto CMA $63.0 $65.7 $67.1 2.1% Canada $438.5 $456.4 $467.6 2.5%
Recent International Rankings Source: Professor Naylor, Speech to Board of Trade, March 23, 2012
Recent Canadian Rankings Source: Professor Naylor, Speech to Board of Trade, March 23, 2012
10 Year Average Annual Operating Costs: North American Cities Labour Transportation Utilities Facility Lease Taxes $14,000 $12,000 $10,000000 $8,000 $ US $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Toronto Dallas Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Boston Los Angeles New York San Francisco Source: KPMG Competitive Alternatives Model, 2012
10 Year Average Annual Operating Costs: Ai Asian and European Cities Labour Transportation Utilities Facility Lease Taxes $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $ US $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Toronto Milan Amsterda Rome Paris London Berlin Tokyo Source: KPMG Competitive Alternatives Model, 2012
Cultural Diversity a key competitive advantage Chinese Italian Portuguese Chinese Polish Spanish Punjabi Tagalog (Pilipino) Tamil Arabic Greek Italian German Greek Arabic Vietnamese Persian (Farsi) German Tamil Portuguese Ukrainian Korean Tagalog (Pilipino) Punjabi Spanish Polish Gujarati Urdu Hungarian Source: Statistics Canada 2006 Census
Labour Force Well Educated, Highly Skilled 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 0-8 years Some secondary High school graduate 50% Some post-secondary Trade cert/apprenticeship 40% 30% Comm college certif/diploma University certificate Bachelor's degree Graduate degree 20% 10% 0% City of Toronto Toronto CMA Ontario Canada Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 2012
Net International Immigration Canadian CMA s 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Toronto Montréal Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg Ottawa Gatineau Saskatoon Source: Statistics Canada 2012 Subprovincial Population Estimates
Population Change by Component City of Toronto Natural Increase 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000000 Intra-provincial Inter-provincial International Net Change Net Change (without immigrants) 40,000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 000 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Canada 2012 Subprovincial Population Estimates
Economic Diversity provides resiliency Industry/Cluster Urban Regions, Ranking by Size (Number of Employees) 2009 Film and Television Food and Beverage Creative Sectors Automotive Financial Services Business Services Apparel and Textile Manufacturing Biomedical Information, Communication, Technology Los Angeles, New York, Toronto, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit New York, Chicago, Toronto, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Atlanta LosAngeles, New York, Toronto, Chicago, Washington, Dallas, Miami Detroit, Chicago, Toronto, Los Angeles, Kansa City, New York New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Toronto, Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington Toronto, Atlanta, Miami Los Angeles, New York, Dallas, Atlanta, Hickory NC, Toronto New York, Boston, Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, San Diego, Toronto New York, Washington, San Francisco, Dallas, San Jose, Los Angeles, Toronto, Chicago, Atlanta, Seattle, Boston Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey
High Rise Buildings Under Construction North American Cities 200 Emporis Skyscraper 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Emporis.com and Skyscraperpage.com (February 1, 2013)
Housing Starts 50,000 City Rest of CMA 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: CHMC Housing Now
Housing Completions Toronto CMA 50,000 High- Rise Low-Rise 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (f) 2014 (f) Source: Historical Data = CMHC, High Rise forecast = Urbanation, Low Rise = Average of 2010-2012
Teranet House Price Index 300 Edmonton 280 Ja an00 = 100 260 240 220 200 180 Winnipeg Québec Edmonton Vancouver Montreal Victoria Calgary Ottawa/Hull Halifax Calgary 160 Toronto Hamilton Toronto 140 120 100 Jan00 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Source: Teranet http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
New Residential Condominium Pre-sales (Units) 30,000 City of Toronto Rest of CMA 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Urbanation
Ontario Merchandise Exports & US$ Exchange Rate $ g $250 $1.10 $200 1 CDN $ in US $ $1.00 $0.90 Expo orts ($Billions) $150 $100 $0.80 $0.70 $50 $0.60 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan- Nov $0.50 Source: Exports - Industry Canada, Exchange Rate - Bank of Canada
Hotel Room Rates & Occupancy Downtown $140 Room Rates Occupancy 75% $135 70% $130 65% $125 $120 60% $115 55% $110 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (f) 50% Source: PKF Consulting
Employment in Establishments City of Toronto 1,400 FTA, Jan, 1989 1,350 1,300 DOT Com Bust, 2001 Global Credit Crisis, 2008 E.U./U.S. Debt Crisis, 2011 GST, Jan, 1991 (000's) 1,250 SARS, 2003 1,200 1,150 NAFTA, Jan, 1994 1,100 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: City of Toronto Planning Division Employment Survey
Unemployment Rates City Rest of CMA Ontario Canada 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Seasonally Adjusted 3 Month Averages
Participation Rates City Rest of CMA Ontario Canada 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Seasonally Adjusted 3 Month Averages
Employment Rate Employment / Population age 15+ Employment / Population age 15 75 City of Toronto Rest of CMA Ontario Canada 73 71 69 67 % 65 63 61 59 57 55 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source : Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey