Wales Rail Planning Assessment

Transcription

1 EL(3) (p4) Wales Rail Planning Assessment July 2007

2 G/MH/2582/07-07 ISBN July A-CMK (772) Typeset in 12pt Crown copyright 2007

3 Contents Forward Executive Summary 4 1 Introduction Background Wales Rail Planning Assessment Consultation Consolidation of Previous Studies 11 2 Study Area The Wales and Borders Area and it s Characteristics Population Economy and Employment The Role of Transport 17 3 Transport in Wales The Rail Network Passenger Services Rail Freight Services and Depots Rail Infrastructure Train Lengths Rail Journey Times Road Network Bus and Coach Network Ports Airports 28 4 The Current Rail Market Rail Passenger Market Overview Frequency of Rail Travel Rail s Role in Journeys to Work Rail Freight Market 38 5 Current Supply and Demand Issues Network Capacity and Crowding Car Park Capacity Issues Access to Stations 44 Contents 1

4 5.4 Station and Train Facilities Rail Performance 46 6 Factors that influence growth in demand Introduction Economic Growth in Wales Future Changes to Demographics and Land Use Wales Road User Charging Changes to the Rail Network Behavioural Change 50 7 How Change will Affect the Railway Process for Forecasting Change in Demand Central Case Passenger Demand Forecasting High Growth Passenger Demand Forecasting Freight Demand Forecasts Market Development of Rail Freight in Wales 54 8 Objectives, Issues and Assessment Process The WRPA Process Overarching Objectives WRPA Objectives Key Issues Emerging from the WRPA Themes for Rail Option Generation Option Assessment Option Development Summary of Process 63 9 Short, Medium and Long Term Options WRPA Options Wales-Wide Measures Options outside the remit of the WRPA process Next Steps and Conclusions The Next Steps Delivering Options Conclusions 81 Appendix A Passenger Rail Services in Wales Glossary 2 Contents

5 Forward These are exciting times for rail services and rail passengers in Wales. Britain s railways are the fastest growing in Europe and Wales has experienced the greatest increase of any of the home nations. Devolution of power ensures the people of Wales have a strong voice in development of their rail services. A new Transport Act has given Welsh Assembly Government the power to plan a more co-ordinated transport system. The draft Wales Transport Strategy sets out our vision for an effective, integrated transport system. The Assembly Government is now responsible for all Arriva Trains Wales services within Wales, as well as those between Wales and England. So Wales has a wide range of powers, and we are determined to use them for the benefit of all rail users as demonstrated by the opening of the Vale of Glamorgan line for passenger services and the Ebbw Vale Railway project, which includes six new railway stations. We have also committed major investment in additional rolling stock to alleviate overcrowding, infrastructure to enable longer and more frequent trains, and initiatives to improve safety and security. As Minister, I am resolved to see a stronger role for our railways to ensure we deliver on our remit for sustainability as well as contributing to increased prosperity for all. The Wales Rail Planning Assessment a joint production with the Department for Transport plays an important part in ensuring the success of that endeavour, focusing thought on how railways can deliver wider social and economic objectives and drawing on the contribution of a range of stakeholders The study has been used to influence the UK Government s statement of what it wants the railway to deliver in England and Wales between 2009 and It will also inform my programme for rail improvements across Wales. I would like to thank our stakeholders for contributing this Final Report, and look forward to ensuring that the recommendations are used as framework for investment decisions. Dr Brian Gibbons AM Minister for the Economy and Transport Forward 3

6 Executive Summary Purpose The Wales Rail Planning Assessment (WRPA) report is a joint Welsh Assembly Government and Department for Transport (DfT) demand based study looking at the potential growth in rail usage between 2006 and 2026 and what might be done to meet this growth. It is a complementary document to the Welsh Assembly Government s Wales Transport Strategy (WTS). It has been prepared alongside the forthcoming DfT High Level Output Specification (HLOS) and White Paper setting out its long term strategy for the railway, and the first phases of work on Network Rail s Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) for Wales. Each exercise has informed the others. In 2005/2006 over one billion passenger journeys were made on the UK rail network, up by over a third since 1997, making patronage on Britain s railways the fastest growing in Europe. Wales, in this period, experienced the largest increase of any UK country. Government wants to support the growth of Britain s railways. With Government support, Network Rail has embarked on a nation-wide programme of infrastructure renewals exceeding 2 billion per annum in value The UK Government has responsibility for setting the national strategy for the railways and the Rail Planning Assessments form a key component. This Wales Rail Planning Assessment is one of a series of Rail Planning Assessments produced at a national level for Wales and Scotland, and regionally for England. The objective of the WRPA is to develop an understanding of the priorities for the railway at the national scale over the next twenty years, within a wider context of spatial planning policy and strategy. The WRPA will contribute to the rail elements of the Wales Transport Strategy and forms a link between rail industry planning and spatial planning to support Wales social, economic and environmental goals. It provides a focus for the forward programme initiated either by the Department for Transport (DfT), Network Rail, the Welsh Assembly Government, the four Regional Transport Consortia, and Local Authorities. The Railways Act 2005 gave the Welsh Assembly Government responsibility for passenger rail services in Wales and Borders from April 2006, with the power to specify the services and regulated fares for all trains that run within Wales, or to and from Wales, under the Wales and Borders franchise. The Act also gives the Assembly Government powers to fund the improvement of rail services where this is to the benefit of Wales. In addition, the Welsh Assembly Government has powers to fund rail freight schemes that transfer freight from road to rail and deliver environmental benefits, under the Freight Facilities Grant scheme. However, the Welsh Assembly Government is not responsible for the operation, maintenance or renewal of the railway infrastructure. This is the responsibility of Network Rail which is funded largely through access charges and DfT grants in England and Wales. Development of the WRPA has benefited from considerable stakeholder engagement with the Welsh Assembly 4 Executive Summary

7 Government, the DfT, Network Rail, the Regional Transport Consortia, Train and Freight Operating Companies, and Passenger Focus. This has been most valuable in developing a coherent understanding of the country s key planning, general transport, and specific rail issues. The Wales Rail Planning Assessment Area The WRPA covers the Wales and Borders franchise area. This is the whole of Wales and an area to the east of the border, to include the Marches Line, which has an important role in north-south rail traffic for Wales. Key links into England are also included. In 2005 Wales had a population of 2.95 million which comprises a mix of urban and rural based inhabitants. Over a quarter of the population live in South East Wales with other regions being less densely populated. Wales has a higher than UK average of retired population (over 20%) and a higher than average level of economically inactive people, with a quarter of the eligible population not working. There is deprivation in some urban areas, particularly in South Wales. The economies of authorities closest to the English border tend to be the strongest. Almost a quarter of Wales population do not have access to a car. Transport Networks in Wales The railway in Wales encompasses around 1,400 kilometres of railway and over 200 stations. The network includes strategic routes such as the North and South Wales Main Lines; urban networks supporting key centres which include the South East Wales Valley Lines network, and more rural routes comprising the Cambrian and Heart of Wales Lines, and branch lines in North and West Wales. Most of the network runs on an eastwest alignment. Although there is no fast north to south link, the Marches Line links North and South Wales via the Borders counties. The main strategic highway routes in Wales also run east-west and do not provide a fast or high capacity internal north to south route. The M4 motorway and other strategic roads provide connections to and from, and between the main urban centres, Wales ports and airports and provide strategic links onward to England and Ireland. Welsh local bus services are provided by a combination of commercial and subsidised (by Local Authorities) operations linking urban, inter-urban and more remote areas of Wales, and are complemented by services provided by community transport operators, particularly in more rural areas. Buses directly compete with rail for some journeys but can also complement rail by acting as a feeder mode to and from rail stations. The Welsh Assembly Government is implementing the long distance bus and coach initiative (the Trawscambria Network) whereby strategic long distance services between railheads are being developed and introduced. There are a number of ports in Wales with Milford Haven, Holyhead, Pembroke Dock and Fishguard accounting for the majority of sea traffic. Swansea, Cardiff, Newport and Port Talbot are also important. Rail passenger and freight facilities can play an important role in port access for example where services provide access to ports (services run to Holyhead and Fishguard Executive Summary 5

8 Harbour linking with ferry services, and to Milford Haven and Pembroke docks). The sea passenger markets are often in direct competition with airlines for international travel. There are numerous airfields in Wales, but only Cardiff and RAF Valley have scheduled services. Demand from Cardiff airport is growing rapidly and in 2005 accounted for 1.8 million passenger movements and 2,600 tonnes of freight transported. From spring 2007, flights were introduced from Cardiff to RAF Valley, on Anglesey, providing a daily service between South and North Wales. This service is designed to complement, rather than compete with, the Cardiff to Holyhead train service. The Rail Market In 2005/2006 Wales railways accounted for almost 20 million passenger rail journeys (2.4% of total UK demand). This was a 2% increase in rail usage over the previous year which continued a steady trend of growth over the last ten years (passenger journeys have increased by over a third since 1997). Some of the largest demand levels occur in South East Wales, and journeys between Wales and England account for one third of trips. Passenger crowding occurs on some areas of the network, including at peak commuting times in South East Wales (where rail has a significant market share of commuting trips into Cardiff) and on the South Wales Main Line. Crowding is also associated with peak holiday traffic particularly on coastal and rural routes and for leisure journeys in and around Cardiff. There may also be suppressed demand, caused by factors including demand exceeding seating capacity on trains; a shortage of car parking spaces at some stations; rail performance being comparatively unsatisfactory on some routes; and rolling stock not being well suited to the primary journey purpose of the traveller. Rail services provide an important role in meeting the economic, social and environmental objectives of the Welsh Assembly Government in both urban and rural areas. The rail freight business in Wales is largely confined to corridors in North and South Wales and along the Marches Line. The main commodities transported are steel and coal. There are some conflicts between passenger and freight services in terms of available track capacity on some parts of the network. Factors that influence growth in demand The main driver for passenger growth on the railway is economic growth. Forecasts predict Gross Value Added (GVA) in Wales to increase by around 2% per annum until Growth in population and employment also drive travel demand. Future changes to land use are linked to the Wales Spatial Plan and Economic Development Strategies and include additional housing and employment. Forecasts predict a 5% increase in population in most authority areas over the next twenty years, with higher levels in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan. The largest growth areas for employment (over 5%) include parts of Denbighshire, between Machynlleth and Newtown in Powys, the Gower Peninsula and an area to the north of Swansea, and the Cardiff/ Newport/Chepstow corridor. In 2004, the Assembly Government Minister for Economic Development and Transport unveiled an 8 billion, 6 Executive Summary

9 fifteen year investment programme for transport in Wales, covering all modes. It includes improvements to the M4 motorway and other strategic highway routes, enhancing access to Holyhead to support links with Ireland, local road improvement schemes, potential improved links to Cardiff Airport, an express bus-way for Swansea and an air service between North and South Wales. In terms of rail, committed enhancements include: The Vale of Glamorgan Line reopened in 2005; Reopening of the Ebbw Valley Line (6 new stations from Ebbw Vale Parkway to Cardiff Central and a bus link from Rogerstone Station to Newport centre (2007); Additional platform at Newport Station (2007); Newport Station redevelopment Phase II (2009); Lengthening 42 platforms on the Cardiff Valleys network to accommodate longer trains (on-going); Frequency enhancement on the Merthyr Tydfil to Cardiff route incorporating a new station at Abercynon (on-going) Other future factors that may have an impact on travel demand include anticipated increased highway congestion, the potential introduction of road user charging, and behavioural change incorporating life-style and work practices, and technological advances. Passenger rail demand in Wales is forecast to grow substantially. A forecast of future demand undertaken for the WRPA has a Central Case forecast of growth in Wales of around 4.5 million journeys (growth of 23%) by The same forecast of growth to 2026 is predicted at 7.5 million additional passenger rail journeys (increase of 38%) of which the largest contributions are forecast to occur in South East Wales. High Growth scenario forecasts were also undertaken for the WRPA. These forecast passenger demand to increase by 35% by 2016 and 48% by The actual rate of growth in demand, which recently has exceeded forecasts, will be a key issue in determining the timeframe for further improvements. Future forecasts for rail freight markets in Wales have been provided through Network Rail s Freight Route Utilisation Strategy (published in 2007) and predict that coal demands are likely to remain fairly constant, the steel market has uncertainties, and there is anticipated growth in container traffic. The Freight Route Utilisation Strategy predicts that freight growth in Wales will be highest on sections of the South Wales Main Line between Swansea and Newport, the Vale of Glamorgan Line between Cardiff and Aberthaw Power Station and on the Marches Line as far north as Hereford. Objectives and Future Issues The UK and Welsh Assembly Government s overarching aims for rail are delivering value for money and improving affordability; improving performance; improving accessibility; responding to demand and increasing capacity; contributing to national productivity and supporting the economy, and maintaining and improving rail s environment-friendliness. Within these aims, WRPA objectives have been established which align to these aims and the transport and planning priorities for Wales. These comprise: Executive Summary 7

10 Develop rail as part of an integrated transport network; Facilitate multi-modal access to and from the railway; Remove psychological barriers to rail use including providing up to date information on services and facilities; Improve physical access at stations and on trains; Tackle crowding and provide a more integrated and accessible service; Ensure major developments have access to the rail network; Ensure railway assets are appropriately retained; Improve performance of rail services and provide greater operational flexibility; Stimulate modal shift to rail; Reduce the environmental impacts of rail travel; and Enhance the overall rail experience. A number of rail issues in Wales were established which fell into 4 themes; namely the need to: 1. tackle crowding, 2. improve access to the rail network, 3. improve connectivity of services, and 4. enhance rail attractiveness. Potential infrastructure enhancements, improvements in train services and complementary measures (to make rail a more attractive proposition) have been grouped into geographical regions for the purpose of identifying regional priorities arising in this Report. This resulted in a number of options for rail which were appraised at a high level to assess how well they met the overlying Government aims and the WRPA objectives, which in turn led to prioritised options for rail in Wales. Looking Forward WRPA Options For What Might Be Done At Chapter 9 Short, Medium and Long Term Options the WRPA identifies a number of options for what might be done to meet forecast growth in demand. They are not replicated here. Under the WRPA approach, the shortterm options (to 2014) are the high priority areas. Within them, either feasibility work has been progressed so that the scheme could progress to implementation or such feasibility work now needs to start to enable implementation in the medium term. The medium to longer term options (post 2014) have been identified and are set out for further consideration following an initial high level assessment, in discussion with stakeholders, of benefits. There are some key overarching priorities which are outside the scope of direct Welsh Assembly Government control and responsibilities and are for consideration at the national level by Network Rail and the UK Government. These include the final stages of completion of the West Coast Main Line modernisation, the resignalling of and improvements to the South Wales Mainline and potential improvements to linespeed and capacity on the InterCity routes. This would include, where appropriate, the North-South services which run on the Marches line, and the lines radiating from Chester, Shrewsbury and Crewe which are vital hubs for travel within and beyond the Wales and Borders network. The UK Government is also considering a number of national strategic priorities in terms of meeting demand and increasing capacity. These will be identified within 8 Executive Summary

11 the HLOS which will be published in July In the context of this Report, the most important rail priority in Wales is the enhancement of the capacity and capability of the infrastructure between Cardiff Queen Street North, Cardiff Central and Cogan Junction. The demand issues are set out at Section 7 of the main report. At the time of writing, the infrastructure between these locations is acting as a bottleneck preventing the improvement of service frequencies to meet demand. Cardiff Area Resignalling needs to take account of these issues and there is active discussion between the Network Rail project team and stakeholders to identify viable options and solutions within the timeframe for the design freeze on the Resignalling project. A large number of improvement options across the Wales and Borders area, for both the short and medium/ long term, are identified at Chapter 9. In considering them further and taking them forward, the Assembly Government will continue to work in close and active co-operation with the Regional Transport Consortia and rail industry partners. Next Steps and Conclusions The next steps to deliver the WRPA (within the Integrated Transport element of the Wales Transport Strategy) will focus on developing the short-term options. The industry process for taking options forward is shown in the Figure below. High Level Output Specification (HLOS) White Paper on Rail Strategy Wales Transport Strategy Wales Rail Planning Assessment (WPRA) & other RPAs Feedback Network Rail Planning Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) Franchises Projects Executive Summary 9

12 1. Introduction 1.1 Background The UK Government has the overarching responsibility for setting the strategy for the railways in England and Wales. In addition, the Transport Wales Act 2006 gave the Welsh Assembly Government a statutory duty to produce a national Transport Strategy for Wales. The Railways Act 2005 gave the Welsh Assembly Government responsibility for passenger rail services from April The Act gives the Assembly Government power to specify the services and fares for all trains that run within Wales, or to and from Wales, under the Wales and Borders franchise. The Welsh Assembly Government manages and monitors performance under the Franchise Agreement and pays an annual subsidy of around 140 million. The Welsh Assembly Government does not have the same responsibility for other franchised services that run within Wales, for which the Department for Transport (DfT) is the funding authority. However, the Welsh Assembly Government is a statutory consultee when such franchises are relet. The Welsh Assembly Government through the 2005 Act has the ability to invest in infrastructure improvements and service enhancements. The Welsh Assembly Government is committed to improving passenger and freight rail services. The Railways Act gives the Assembly Government powers to fund the improvement of rail services where this is to the benefit of Wales, which is over and above the funding provided for the Wales and Borders franchise. It replaces earlier more limited powers for direct funding for rail improvements, although the Welsh Assembly Government has for many years funded substantial rail infrastructure enhancements. The new powers are being used for direct investment in rail infrastructure schemes and for revenue support for additional rolling stock or service improvements. The Welsh Assembly Government also has powers to fund rail freight schemes that transfer freight from road to rail and deliver environmental benefits under the Freight Facilities Grant scheme. The Welsh Assembly Government is not responsible for the operation, maintenance or renewal of the railway infrastructure. This is the responsibility of Network Rail. The Assembly Government works closely with Network Rail s Route Enhancement Team to deliver rail improvements. Network Rail can also fund rail improvements which deliver performance improvements under its Discretionary Fund and again there is close working between the Assembly Government and Network Rail. 1.2 Wales Rail Planning Assessment The Wales Rail Planning Assessment (WRPA) is one of a series of Rail Planning Assessments (RPAs) produced for each region of England, published by the DfT and at a national level for Scotland (published by Transport Scotland), and for Wales (published jointly by the Welsh Assembly Government and the DfT). The WRPA seeks to develop an understanding of the priorities for the railway at the national scale over the next twenty years, within a wider context of planning policy and strategy. The WRPA forms a link between rail 10 Introduction

13 industry planning and spatial planning and aims to: Deliver the rail enhancements as part of the Wales Transport Strategy by forming a basis for planning local and regional rail services over the next twenty years, consistent with national rail policies and with other transport plans; Ensure that plans for the railway reflect where appropriate the policies and priorities in the Wales Transport Strategy, Wales Spatial Plan, and Regional Transport Plans; Inform input to future spatial planning for Wales which incorporates six areas within the country each with their own socio-economic hubs. These areas are crucial in terms of aligning social, economic and environmental goals and setting out a framework to guide future developments and policy interventions; Provide demand based evidence to inform the content of the Secretary of State s HLOS; Provide information for Network Rail s Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) and assist in the prioritisation of infrastructure projects, such as major renewals; and Guide the development of the DfT s and Welsh Assembly Government s franchise specifications. Priorities identified in the WRPA will be implemented through a variety of mechanisms including, in the short to medium term through franchise specifications, and in the medium to longer term, through changes to rolling stock provision and rail network infrastructure. 1.3 Consultation A Core Reference Group was set up during the period when the technical work underpinning the WRPA was being carried out. This included the following members: The client team comprising the Welsh Assembly Government and Department for Transport; Network Rail; The South East Wales Regional Transport Consortium (Sewta); The South West Wales Regional Transport Consortium (SWWITCH); The Mid Wales Transport Consortium (TraCC); The North Wales Transport Consortium (Taith); Arriva Trains Wales; English Welsh and Scottish Railway; and Passenger Focus. In addition to the Core Reference Group, informal consultation was carried out at a less formal level with First Great Western, Virgin West Coast, Virgin Cross Country, the Rail Freight Group and Freight on Rail. Participation in this informal consultation enabled these key bodies to provide input on the WRPA as work progressed. This has proved invaluable in developing a common understanding of planning, transport and rail issues affecting Wales. 1.4 Consolidation of Previous Studies The WRPA has looked to build on work currently being carried out, both in terms of physical works and initial feasibility studies. There are currently a number of rail and integrated transport strategies being actively developed Introduction 11

14 throughout Wales by the Welsh Assembly Government, Network Rail, Regional Transport Consortia, and Local Authorities. In 2006 Assembly Members formed the Rail Infrastructure and Improved Passenger Service (RIIPS). This was a special/ad hoc Committee of the National Assembly for Wales formed to identify how to improve rail services in Wales. The Committee produced a detailed report which was presented to the Welsh Assembly Government for consideration. The report identified opportunities for a number of enhancements which included: North/South links a fast limited stopping train between North and South Wales; North Wales increasing the track capacity between Wrexham and Saltney by doubling most of the track; and electrification of the Borderlands Line between Wrexham and Bidston; Central Wales enhancing frequency to provide hourly services between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth; and enhancing frequency and better quality rolling stock on the Heart of Wales Line; South East Wales increasing frequency of services on the Valley Lines; and South West Wales infrastructure works to remove the capacity constraint at Gowerton; and providing enhanced services on the South Wales Main Line, through West Wales. The Welsh Assembly Government welcomed the RIIPS Report and set out a response on how enhancements could be taken forward. These options were considered when developing the WRPA. Footnote Committee on Rail Infrastructure and Improved Passenger Services The terms of reference for the Committee were: to formulate a programme of costed, achievable improvements in rail infrastructure and improved passenger services affecting Wales; to make recommendations to the Assembly on the improvements identified. The Committee met for the first time on 1 February 2006 and ceased to exist on the 30 June 2006 following its report to the Assembly. The Committee took evidence from across the Rail Industry and Government and was made up of a cross-party group of Assembly Members, as follows: John Marek (Forward Wales) (Chair), Leighton Andrews (Labour), Eleanor Burnham (Liberal Democrats), Rosemary Butler (Labour), Janet Davies (Plaid Cymru), Lisa Francis (Conservative), Carl Sargeant (Labour). The references and papers referring to the Committee can be found at org/bus-home/bus-committees/buscommittees-second/bus-committeessecond-rips-home.htm The Welsh Assembly Government response to the RIIPS Report is included in a Written Cabinet Statement of 8 November ( cabinet/cabinetstatements/cabine tstatements2006/932432/?lang=e n). There was a plenary discussion of the Government s response on 10 October 2006 ( rop/rop/plenary%20session/2006/ October/rop061010fv7.pdf) 12 Introduction

15 2. Study Area 2.1 The Wales and Borders Area and its Characteristics The topography of Wales is varied and diverse. A high proportion of the population, employment and facilities are concentrated around a number of key towns and cities. The densest areas of population and greatest employment are concentrated in South East Wales and a number of towns along the South and North Wales coast. Other centres include Wrexham, Bangor, Aberystwyth, Llandrindod Wells and Newtown. In the Borders area, Hereford, Shrewsbury and Chester all have significant catchment areas and perform important regional roles. With regards to spatial planning for Wales over the next twenty years, the Wales Spatial Plan, as part of the Spatial Vision defines six areas within Wales. These six areas are, South West Wales, South Mid Wales, South East Wales, Central Wales, North West Wales and North East Wales. The Spatial Plan sets out a strategic framework to guide future development and policy interventions. The focus of Wales Spatial Planning is Promoting a sustainable economy developing an innovative, high value economy for Wales which utilises and develops the skills and knowledge of the population and an economy that creates wealth and allows prosperity to be spread throughout Wales; and an economy which adds to the quality of people s lives as well as their living and working environments; Valuing the environment the quality of the environment is seen as a fundamental asset for its intrinsic value, the economy of Wales, and the quality of life. There is a need to safeguard and enhance both the natural and built environment to attract people to, and retain them in Welsh communities and to preserve the foundations for the future; Achieving sustainable accessibility development that encourages economic activity, widens employment activities, ensures quality services and balances the social, environmental and economic impacts travel can have; Respecting distinctiveness creating a cohesive identity which sustains and celebrates Wales distinctive features, one which is central to promoting Wales to the rest of the world, as well as to future economic competitiveness and social and environmental wellbeing; Working with immediate neighbours sustain and enhance linkages with England and Ireland to provide integrated transport and achieve collaboration to achieve maximum benefits in terms of land uses and facilities. The WRPA study area shown in Figure 2.1 is the Wales & Border franchise area. It includes Wales and an area to the east of the border, including the Marches Line which has an important role in linking North and South Wales. The Figure also shows regional boundaries and major transport links and nodes. Study Area 13

16 Figure 2.1 WRPA Study Area 14 Study Area

17 2.2 Population Wales has a population of 2.95 million (2005) which includes an increase of 1.5% since the most recent census in The population in 2005, broken down by Unitary Authority is shown in Table 2.1. Unitary Authority Population (000 s) Unitary Authority Population (000 s) Isle of Anglesey 68.7 Neath Port Talbot Gwynedd Bridgend Conwy Vale of Glamorgan Denbighshire 95.6 Cardiff Flintshire Rhondda, Cynon Taff Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil 55.1 Powys Caerphilly Ceredigion 78.1 Blaenau Gwent 68.8 Pembrokeshire Torfaen 90.4 Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire 87.2 Swansea Newport Total 2,952.5 Table 2.1 Population in Wales by Unitary Authority, 2005 (Welsh Assembly Government Statistics) Cardiff has the highest population of any authority, with nearly 11% of all Wales population (317,000 total population); followed by Rhondda Cynon Taff with a population of 232,000 (8% of Wales population); and thirdly Swansea with a population of 226,000 (8%). The 2001 census reported that within the population of Wales there is a higher proportion of persons over 50 years in Wales than the UK average, and also a high population of retired people. The population is broken down as 19.4% being under 16 years of age, 60.2% being within the economically active age bracket, and 20.4% being within the retirement age group. For the purposes of transport planning, Wales is divided into four Regional Transport Consortia regions, namely the North Wales Regional Transport Consortium (Taith), the Mid Wales Regional Transport Consortium (TraCC), the South West Wales Integrated Transport Consortium (SWWITCH) and the South East Wales Transport Alliance (Sewta) as shown in Figure 2.1. Study Area 15

18 Region South East Wales (Sewta) South West Wales (SWWITCH) North Wales (Taith) Mid Wales (TraCC) Area (Hectares) Proportion of Wales Land Mass Proportion of Wales Population Population % in Urban Area Population % in Rural Area 288,744 14% 48% 95% 5% 494,487 23% 22% 83% 17% 372,907 18% 19% 83% 17% 959,244 45% 11% 54% 46% Totals 2,115, % 100% Table 2.2 Land Area by Region and Population Make-Up (2001) 2.3 Economy and Employment Economic statistics for Wales (Welsh Assembly Government data) show that in March 2006, 71.8% of people of working age were in employment, which compares with a UK average of 74.5%. The number of jobs in Wales currently stands at around 1.17 million. Trends in employment show a reduction in manufacturing jobs (a decrease of 3.9% in 2005), and a reduction in construction industry employment (a reduction of 6.7% over the previous year). However, over the same period there has been an increase in service industry employment (a rise of 0.6%) and in other industries including the health and education sectors (which have seen an increase in employment of 2.8%). In 2004 the average economic inactivity rate for people of working age (including students) in Wales was 25.0%, compared to a UK wide average of 21.8%. The highest inactivity rates occur in the South East Wales Valleys, namely within the unitary authorities of Merthyr Tydfil (32.0%), Blaenau Gwent (30.9%), Caerphilly (29.4%), and Neath Port Talbot (31.4%); and in the South West of Wales in the counties of Ceredigion (27.9%) and Carmarthenshire (28.5%). Counties with the lowest level of economic inactivity tend to be those closest to the English border, including Powys (21.1%), Denbighshire (20.9%), Monmouthshire (20.7%) and Flintshire (18.6%). Examining social exclusion on a geographical basis, the Wales Index of Multiple Deprivation indicates that the most socially deprived areas in Wales are in the South Wales Valleys, pockets around Swansea and Llanelli, in port and (former) industrial communities, and further pockets along the North Wales coast between Rhyl and Llandudno. Of the 1.21 million households in Wales (2001 census), between 500,000 and 750,000 people in Wales were calculated to be living in a low-income household (2001/2002). Most of the least deprived areas tend to be located relatively close to the English border. Links to England are therefore important to the Welsh economy and it is important economically to provide strong links to areas of employment including the North West of England, the Midlands and the South of England. 16 Study Area

19 2.4 The Role of Transport Transport plays a crucial role in connecting the population with jobs, education, health care, retail facilities, leisure activities and other activities, thereby enabling the vision and the agenda of the Spatial Plan to be realised. 315,000 households in Wales do not have access to a car and are therefore reliant on the provision of public transport. Rail can be particularly important in terms of regional (and wider, including Europe) connectivity for both passengers and freight. Study Area 17

20 3. Transport in Wales 3.1 The Rail Network The Wales and Borders railway network is shown in Figure 3.1. It is an integral part of Great Britain s rail network, comprising around 1,400 route kilometres and over 200 stations. Main lines run east-west across Wales (as opposed to north-south), and therefore provide good links to England (and Ireland) from many of the major settlements. The Marches and Heart of Wales Lines connect North and Figure 3.1 Wales Rail Network South Wales, and run through/into the Borders, as does the Cambrian Line all with Shrewsbury as a hub). In South Wales, the Valleys network forms a selfcontained network, focussed on Cardiff. There are a number of other lines and local branches linking off the main lines in North and West Wales. Since the network provides access to ports and airports, it can also be considered of international significance and the Cambrian Line and the South Wales and North Wales Main Lines have Trans European Network (TEN) status. 18 Transport in Wales

21 North West England Scotland North East England The Midlands Ireland North Wales Ireland West Wales South Wales South East England East Anglia Mainland Europe West of England Figure 3.2 Main Rail Movements in Wales The extent of the rail passenger and freight network is shown in Figure 3.2. As well as providing key linkages within Wales, the network provides connectivity with the rest of Great Britain and beyond. 3.2 Passenger Services Long distance inter-city services in Wales are provided on the following lines: South Wales Main Line operates principally from Carmarthen in the west to the Severn Tunnel but a few services run on to the west Wales coast. Fast services on the line link key centres in South Wales including Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, Cardiff and Newport with English destinations such as Bristol, Swindon, Reading and London (Paddington); and North Wales Main Line strategic services operating between Holyhead and Llandudno to London (Euston) via the West Coast Main Line. Regional inter-urban services are provided on the: North Wales Line services to Holyhead, including Cardiff-Holyhead (via the Marches Line); Llandudno to Manchester and Crewe to Holyhead. South Wales Main Line semi fast services linking stations along the South Wales Main Line and services from Cardiff to Gloucester, Manchester, Nottingham, Birmingham, Holyhead and Bristol (including services continuing to the South English coast); and Mid Wales Lines the Cambrian Line provides services from Birmingham via Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth and stations to Pwllheli on the Cambrian Coast Line. The Heart of Wales Line runs from Shrewsbury to Swansea. In addition, the local rail services in Wales consist of: North Wales branches Branch Lines run between the North Wales Main Line and Wrexham, Bidston (connecting with Merseyrail), Llandudno and Blaenau Ffestiniog; Transport in Wales 19

22 Valley Lines an urban passenger network centred on Cardiff; Swansea Line (Swanline) stopping services between Swansea and Bridgend/Cardiff on the South Wales Main Line; South West Wales branches services linking ports at Fishguard, Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock. Figures in Appendix A summarise the average weekday levels of service diagrammatically. In terms of South Wales the following services operate: An hourly fast service on the South Wales Main Line from Swansea to London Paddington with an additional hourly from Cardiff to London Paddington (therefore two trains per hour to London from Cardiff); An hourly Maesteg to Cardiff/ Gloucester service; An hourly Cardiff to Manchester service; An hourly Cardiff to Birmingham/ Nottingham service; Two trains per hour between Cardiff and Bristol (one service every hour continues to the South Coast of England); A two hourly Cardiff to Holyhead service via the Marches Line; The Valley Lines experience a range of frequencies depending on line and time of day. At peak times services are normally with between fifteen minutes and hourly intervals; and A single service in each direction between Cardiff and the North of England. The following services operate in West Wales: A two hourly service between Pembroke Dock and Swansea; A two hourly service between Milford Haven and Cardiff; Two services daily from Fishguard Harbour, connecting with the ferries from Rosslare (Ireland); and A half hourly/hourly service between Carmarthen and Swansea and incorporates the above services. The following services operate in Mid Wales: An irregular four trains per day on the Heart of Wales Line; and A two hourly service between Birmingham New Street and Aberystwyth, with a similar level of frequency on the Cambrian Coast to Pwllheli. In North Wales, in addition to the Cardiff to Holyhead, and Cardiff to Manchester and Chester services, previously mentioned, the level of service includes: An hourly service between Bidston and Wrexham Central; An hourly service between Chester and Shrewsbury (connects onto Birmingham); An hourly service from Llandudno to Manchester Piccadilly; A two hourly Crewe to Holyhead service; An approximately three hourly service between Llandudno and Blaenau Ffestiniog; and There are also services from London Euston to Llandudno (one train per day) and to Holyhead (four trains per weekday). Maintenance of passenger service vehicles is undertaken in Cardiff, Canton, Chester and Machynlleth. 20 Transport in Wales

23 There are over 200 rail stations in Wales. Some stations such as Cardiff Central perform national roles and operate as major transport hubs offering multi-modal interchange facilities and accommodating a variety of local, regional and national rail services. Many smaller stations often have social inclusion and accessibility functions. Figure 3.3 Average Weekly Flow of Trains, 2003 (Rail Freight Group) 3.3 Rail Freight Services and Depots There are significant rail freight movements within Wales and freight trains use a number of routes as shown in Figure 3.1. Some freight trains share track with passenger services whilst others operate on freight only lines. Current freight services in Wales are shown below. Transport in Wales 21

24 The three freight operating companies serving Wales are: - English, Welsh and Scottish Railway (EWS). (This company operates the majority of freight services in Wales) Freightliner operates services to the South Wales International Freight Terminal at Wentloog Direct Rail Services operate specialist services (such as nuclear traffic) from North Wales to North West England. Current freight lines and facilities in North Wales include: North Wales Main Line; Wrexham General to Dee Marsh steelworks; Dee Marsh complex (Corus Shotton Steelworks); Holyhead; Valley triangle; Marches Line; Moreton on Lugg complex; and Hereford to Shrewsbury and Chester. In South Wales the rail freight corridors include: South Wales Main Line Cardiff to Gloucester; Llandeilo Junction to Herbrandston Junction, via Llanelli, Whitland and Haverfordwest; The Swansea District Line; and Herbrandston Junction to Robeston. In addition there are some freight lines that are currently not in use: Gulf Oil Junction to Waterston; and Pantyffynnon to Gwuan-cae-Gurwen (line may open in 2007). The main freight terminals operated in Wales are shown in Figure 3.4. The majority are in South Wales, with some terminals in North and West Wales. Figure 3.4 Rail heads in Wales 22 Transport in Wales

25 The main rail freight yards in Wales are at Newport Alexandra Dock Junction (West of Newport) and Margam (east of Port Talbot steelworks) and these are both operated by EWS. Further EWS yards are located in Swansea (Burrows Yard), Cardiff Tidal Yard and East Usk (east of Newport); Steel is conveyed from Port Talbot via Margam Yard and from Llanwern via exchange sidings within the site. Shotton Steelworks uses exchange sidings at Dee Marsh and Trostre works in West Wales has sidings within the complex; Coal traffic is limited to South Wales, with loading points at Tower Colliery (Hirwaun), Onllwyn and Cwmgwrach (both in Swansea Valleys), Aberthaw power station, Parc Slip (on the Ogmore Vale extension Line between Tondu and Margam Yard) and Newport Docks, for imported coal; Scrap metal is conveyed to Cardiff Tidal Yard and then transported into the nearby Tremorfa Steelworks, operated by Celsa. Steel is also transported by rail around the complex; A railhead exists for petroleum traffic from Robeston, close to Milford Haven in West Wales; Aggregate traffic railheads are spread around South Wales and North Wales (Penmaenmawr) and there is also a loading point at Moreton-on-Lugg, on the Marches Line; Infrastructure services are based at Newport Alexandra Dock Junction yard in South Wales; Docks at Newport, Cardiff, Barry, Swansea and Mostyn also act as departure points for traffic to be exported. For example, steel traffic for Ireland is taken by rail to Mostyn and then shipped to Ireland; Timber traffic is conveyed by rail to a railhead at Chirk for processing; Specialist terminals exist on Anglesey for the nearby Nuclear Power Station and at Wentloog for Ministry of Defence traffic; The main maintenance facility for EWS rail freight in Wales is based at Margam, whilst heavier repairs are undertaken at Toton in Nottinghamshire; and Freightliner maintenance is undertaken outside of the WRPA study area at Crewe, Leeds or Southampton. 3.4 Rail Infrastructure The following paragraphs set out the rail infrastructure in Wales and summarise the main constraints for passenger and freight services on the network. Addressing these constraints can provide opportunities to improve reliability and punctuality of services, increase operational flexibility, and result in shorter journey times for passenger and freight services. The Great Western Main Line (GWML) operates between London Paddington and Carmarthen (with a few services to the west Wales coast) and is controlled in Wales by signal boxes at Newport, Cardiff and Port Talbot. The line has four tracks between Severn Tunnel Junction and Cardiff and two tracks between Cardiff and Swansea. The maximum line speed on the route is between 75 to 100 mph on the main lines; with reduced speeds in operation on the relief lines. The South Wales Main Line is referred to in this document and comprises the Wales section of the GWML. Complementary to the inter-city services, Transport in Wales 23

26 the Swansea network operates a more localised stopping pattern on the GWML between Swansea and Bridgend/Cardiff. The line from Gloucester to Cardiff is controlled by Newport and Gloucester signal boxes. The line is double track between Gloucester and Severn Tunnel Junction and four tracks thereafter. The maximum line speed of the route is between 75 to 100 mph, with reduced speeds on the relief lines. The South Wales Valley Lines network forms an urban passenger network centred on Cardiff. The majority of trains serve both Cardiff Central and Cardiff Queen Street thus offering good access to the city centre. Since the late 1980s the network has experienced a high level of steady growth in terms of services and usage. The success of the railway has resulted in the network operating at capacity during peak hours, in terms of the frequency of services able to operate and train loadings on the approaches to Cardiff. The network includes three routes which initially share the Taff corridor north of Cardiff branching from Pontypridd and Abercynon to reach termini at Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil and Treherbert. Other Valley Lines routes are to Rhymney, Coryton, Penarth, Barry Island and Maesteg, suburban services to Radyr and services to Cardiff Bay. The northern ends of the routes are single track, with average line speeds of between 40 and 50 mph. Summer 2005 saw the introduction of passenger services between Cardiff and Bridgend via Barry, over the Vale of Glamorgan Line (previously freight-only) serving new stations at Rhoose (Cardiff International Airport) and Llantwit Major. The lines are controlled by Cardiff panel signal box, Radyr signal box and mechanical signal boxes on the Barry, Abercynon and Rhymney Valley Lines. Line speeds are between 40 and 50 mph, with 70 mph running on the approaches to Cardiff Queen Street. The critical constraint on the Valley Lines network is the capacity bottleneck represented by Cardiff Queen Street Station, Cardiff Central and Cogan Junction. Elsewhere on the Valley Lines network, short platform lengths (which dictate the short trains being operated on some lines) can impose a constraint on the use of certain stationsso would need to be lengthened for the operation of longer train. In addition there are single-track sections at the north of a number of the Valley Lines, at nine different locations. Lengthening platforms further where this remains possible, and dualling or providing passing provision where there is a single track, can provide limited further scope for additional capacity to meet increasing demand. The Maesteg Line operates between Bridgend and Maesteg and is controlled by Port Talbot signal box and a mechanical signal box at Tondu. The line is single track and line speeds are between 30 and 50 mph. Lines west of Swansea are either controlled by Port Talbot Panel signal box or six other mechanical signal boxes along the route. The route is double track between Llandeilo Junction and Clarbeston Road, with the remainder of the route single track, with passing loops. The maximum line speed is 75 mph. Network pinch points in South West Wales include a five mile single track section from Cockett to Duffryn 24 Transport in Wales