The 34 th Reiseanalyse RA relaxation, no stress be free, have time to yourself. rest. culture and study. explore, take risks.

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1 First Results ITB 2004, Berlin RA 2004 Stability of demand - dynamics in detail. Germany gains market shares. Declining holiday duration. No-frills airlines still climbing. Image of package trips in focus. Good value holiday trips: YES!... but please without quality concessions. Intent to travel is greater than in The 34 th Reiseanalyse RA 2004 As in the past years, the German holiday travel market in 2003 is characterised by a high stability of demand. Doing without their holiday trips is apparently something the Germans don t like to think of, even if the general conditions (economic situation, latent threat of terror) are not promising. They are by no means travel-lazy, yet they prefer being lazy while on holiday. This shows the ranking of their general holiday motives: Here the more passive activities dominate, such as resting or relaxing. Physical or intellectual effort is something only few Germans like in their holidays. RA 2004: The Germans holiday motives (selection) relaxation, no stress be free, have time to yourself rest What is the RA? publications culture and study explore, take risks active sports Figures representing very important in Masthead Publisher:, Hamburg/Kiel info@fur.de Wrangelstraße 16, D Kiel Phone: (0) , Fax: (0)

2 More than ¾ of the Germans went on holiday trips. Volume of holiday trips: mn holiday trips in million; from 1992 incl. new German federal states Source: RA The 2003 holiday travel market In million Germans undertook at least one holiday trip (5 days and longer). Thus the holiday travel propensity equals The total number of holiday trips in 2003 was more than 66 million. The marginal changes of these figures compared with 2002 are due to a methodical optimisation of the survey*. Thus they do not represent an actual increase. In 2003 the travel propensity maintained the same high level that we know from previous years. The stability of demand can be explained with the big share of regular travellers. For those a yearly holiday trip is part of their indispensable consumption pattern. Dynamics can be found rather in the structure (where and how you travel) than in the volume (whether you travel). RA 2003: German holiday trips - key figures undertook one holiday trip, 15 two, 5 three or more. Population (age 14+) in million One or more holiday trips = Travel propensity () People travelling (in million) Travel frequency (trips per tourist) Number of holiday trips (5 days +) in million Not to forget Optimised collection of holiday trip data In addition to the 66 million holiday trips there are about 14 million which were made by children aged 14 and below. * The RA 2004 questionnaire has been improved to ensure a more complete collection of holiday travellers and trips. Effects of the methodical adjustments have been monitored by accompanying surveys; they are all within the statistic interval of deviation. Increases in holiday travel propensity and volume are due to these methodical improvements. 2

3 Long term development: market shares of international and domestic holiday destinations; from 1990 incl. new German fed. states Source: RA international domestic Holiday destinations 2003 With an increased market share of almost 33 of all holiday trips, Germany is the Germans most important holiday destination. Other popular destinations are at the European Mediterranean (market share: 27) or in Western Europe (14). Long term analyses show the dynamics of demand in destination preferences, though - traditional holiday countries within the European Mediterranean are stagnating while the rest of the Mediterranean (above all Turkey) is gaining in importance. Well known destinations in Western Europe are losing market shares in favour of Eastern European newcomers. Scandinavia remains an insider s tip at quite a low level, whereas long haul destinations are becoming less important. RA 2004: Holiday destinations 2003 Market share changes At the Mediterranean: From Europe towards Turkey. In Europe: From West towards East. Scandinavia stays an insider s tip. Long haul destinations keep losing Mio. Germany total Outside Germany Mediterr. (Europe) - E, I, HR, SLO, GR Mediterr. (rest) - TR, Nordafrika, etc Western Europe - GB, IRL, F, NL, CH, A Eastern Europe - H, CZ, PL, GUS, etc Scandinavia - DK, N, S, FIN Long haul Basis: all holiday trips (million) Attention when comparing different sources Please note that this data is related to the holiday trips of the German speaking population 14 years and older lasting at least 5 days. Business trips and trips lasting less than 5 days are not included in the table. This has to be taken into account e.g. in comparisons with official statistic data which usually includes all kinds of travel purposes. 3

4 RA 2004: Destinations domestic In Germany the Germans prefer mountains or sea. Bavaria Mecklenburg-W.P. Lower Saxony Schlesw ig-holstein Baden-Wuerttemberg 3,1 4,3 4,0 6,0 7,6 all holiday trips = Top 5 domestic: more than ¾ of all domestic holiday trips are concentrated in only five federal states: Bavaria is for years the undisputed number one. Mecklenburg-W.P. follows in a secure second place. Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Baden-Württemberg rank among the important states, as well. RA 2004: Destinations international Stable market outside Germany: Spain in front of Italy and Austria. Winner of the last years is Turkey. Spain Italy Austria Turkey Greece Netherlands France Croatia Denmark Long haul 2,9 2,6 2,6 1,8 1,8 5,1 6,1 6,8 8,6 all holiday trips = , Internationally familiar patterns prevail, as well: Spain, Italy, Austria and Turkey lead the Germans popularity ranking. Dynamic in the details can be found in long term comparisons. Traditional destinations like Spain, Italy and France slowly lose market shares, while new destinations like Turkey, Croatia and countries in Eastern Europe, e.g. Bulgaria, are growing for the German market. 4

5 Average duration of holiday trip in days Source: RA Organisation, transportation, expenditure, duration In 2003 package tours and other trips booked by a travel agent together reached a 44 market share of all holiday trips, although there are big differences between domestic and international travel. While 58 of all international trips are either organised by a tour operator or at least partly booked by a travel agent, this share in domestic travel is only 17. Similar differences exist between the different means of transportation. During the past few years the duration of holiday trips has decreased continuously to an average 12.8 days in At the same time the travel expenditure per person and day has slowly increased: With an average 62 per day in 2003, the Germans spent over 10 more than in RA 2004: Urlaubsreisen 2003 All trips = Ausland ges. ges. Inland Means of transport Car, mobile home Plane Coach Railway Travel expenditure per person and day: 1996: 50,- 1998: 53,- 2000: 57,- 2002: 61,- 2003: 62,- Source: RA Organisation Package tours Other booking through travel agency Directly at the hotel or lessor Others Travel expenditure total per person and trip (Ø in EUR) Duration (Ø in days) Number of holiday trips (million)

6 No-frills airlines still climbing! Interest in no-frills flights in selected segments: 40 Population age 14+ (in ) Source: RA total y. 30 A-level+ 28 package Individual travellers image of package tours = The tour operators challenge. No-frills airlines The sky s the limit for no-frills airlines: in million Germans (6.5) took advantage of the offers of Ryanair, Germanwings, HLX und Co. - almost double the amount of 2002! and not only the young fly low cost: Nowadays the age-groups are quite evenly represented. For the future there is still quite some space for growth in this segment: Within the next three years 20 of the Germans plan to reach their holiday destination by nofrills airline. Here short trips and real holiday have the same high significance. Younger and well-to-do people s interest in no-frills flights is above average, as is the interest of package tourists. For more than 17 of the package tourists a no-frills flight with an individually booked accommodation is a serious alternative to the tour operators. Attitudes towards package tours Most package tourists are convinced of the advantages of their form of holiday. Individual travellers have a less bright image of package holidays: Negative prejudices are rather confirmed, whereas the advantages tend to be mistrusted. Quite a challenge for tour operators to convince new customers under these circumstances RA 2004: Attitudes towards package tours (Selection) Package tours package individual are untroubled holiday trips without much own preparation. are much cheaper than individual holiday trips. do not leave enough freedom; you are very constricted. are good value for money, yet pure mass tourism. Figures for completely agree and rather agree in of holiday travellers

7 Special focus of the RA market segments of holiday trips: Holiday price and quality Pure luxury - money doesn t matter or cheap, cheap holidays - without expecting much quality : Between these extremes all holiday trips are divided in the following five market segments: RA 2004: Price and quality of all holiday trips Good value holiday trips: YES! but please without quality concessions. cheap bargain 5-10 high quality pure luxury 5-8 higher quality + adequate price good value with quality high price Increased use of discounts still we are not a nation of bargain hunters. Travel intentions 2004 higher than in 2003: Population age 14+ (in ) Source: RA cheap as possible low quality In 2003 more than 40 of all holiday travellers used discounts of any kind (1999: close to 30). For the package tourists this figure is almost 60. Travel intentions for 2004 In January, more than two thirds (69) of the Germans already have more or less precise plans for their holiday travel in That is a little more than in 2003 (67). The share of waverers has also in comparison to previous years increased. At a record low is the share of those not planning a holiday trip for the current year. RA 2004: Travel intentions in January Population age 14+ (in ) Yes, I (probably) will travel Don t know (yet) No, I will (probably) not travel

8 In this review of the first results we could only present a small excerpt of the topics and data covered in the RA The RA 2004 also deals with the price structure of the market and types of consumers, the satisfaction with holiday trips and the infrastructure of destinations also covered are e.g. attitudes towards package tours. We will gladly tell you more about the contents and possibilities of the RA! Please call us or visit our web site at What is the RA? The Reiseanalyse RA 2004 is a representative survey of the holiday travel behaviour of Germans, their travel related attitudes, motivations and interests. The survey focuses on holiday trips of five or more days but short trips of two to four days are also covered. The study is based on almost face-to-face interviews carried out in January The randomly selected sample is representative for the Germanspeaking population aged 14 years or over, living in private households in Germany. Subscribers to the RA receive the complete results in table form, a differentiated report giving an overview of the total German tourist market and the major trends. The large sample size allows more detailed analyses, even for small and very specific target groups. The organisation & the users, the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.v., is an independent association of domestic and international users of tourism research in Germany. The user: a broad spectrum of companies and organisations in the tourism industry, specialist tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations, government ministries and publishing companies. The first results presented here have been checked, but we cannot exclude that there could be variations in the final data. Text: Ulf Sonntag, Peter Aderhold, Martin Lohmann, Hamburg/Kiel 2004 The research team The (Dr. Peter Aderhold) is together with the N.I.T. (Institute of Tourism and Recreational Research in Northern Europe: Prof. Dr. Martin Lohmann, Ulf Sonntag) in charge of the organisational and scientific aspects of the survey. Ipsos (Ulrich Boës and Doni Boll) carries out the field work and is responsible for the evaluation of the results. This team is co-operating for more than ten years. 8

9 Special publications of the Detailed research results of the RA with access to all the data from the basic questionnaire programme can only be obtained by those who purchase the RA 2004 (price: EUR 8.400,- plus VAT.). To make the research results open to the public the has published some special studies which focus on selected topics of interest. Unfortunately most of these publications are only available in German. IN ENGLISH German Holiday Analysis RA Summary Analysis of the travel behaviour of the German population and the holiday motivations and interests of the German holidaymaker (ca. 40 pages). Price: EUR (VAT included.) Coming in Summer 2004: the NEW Trendstudie. Die NEUE Reiseanalyse Trendstudie Neue Trends der touristischen Nachfrage auf der Basis von über 30 Jahren Reiseanalyse (ab Sommer 2004) Preis: EUR (inkl. MwSt.) EUR (inkl. MwSt.) bei Bestellung bis Classics in German. For further information (tables of contents and order forms) please look at: Thematische Sonderstudien: Urlaubsreisen der Senioren Urlaubsreisen der Jugendlichen Urlaubsreisen der Singles Urlaubsreisen mit Kindern Fernreisen Kurzreisen Gesundheitsreisen: Wellness, Fitness und Kur Urlaubsmotive Urlaubsarten Informationsquellen und Internetnutzung (je ca. 30 Seiten) Inhaltsverzeichnisse der einzelnen Studien finden Sie auf unserer Homepage unter Publikationen. Preis: EUR (inkl. MwSt.) 9