Brazil China Chamber of. Mare Forum Italy 2010

Transcription

1 Brazil China Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mare Forum Italy 2010

2 Introduction 1949 People s Republic of China established 1974 Brazil and China re-establish establish diplomatic relations 1978 Deng Xiao Ping begins economic reforms, by opening up and modernizing the Chinese economy 1995 Brazil accepted as a WTO member (Trade Flow U$2.2 Billion) 2001 China accepted as a WTO member (Trade Flow U$ 3.2 Billion) 2009 China overtook USA as Brazil s largest trading partner (Trade flow U$36 Billion X U$35.6 Billion with USA)

3 Population 1.35 Billion people 365 Million households Life expectancy: 71 years Country 9.6 million km² (Brazil 8.6 million Km²) World s 3 rd largest country Capital: Beijing 34 Administrative i ti Regions: - 4 Cities under Central Government Control - 23 Provinces - 5 Autonomous Regions - 2 Special Administrative Regions

4 Population 198 Million people 56 Million households Life expectancy: 73 years Country: Area: 8.6 M km² -World s 5 th largest Official Language: Portuguese Currency: Real R$1.00=U$0.57 or RMB 3.87 (16/04/10) - Float System Administrative i ti Regions: 26 States t and Capital: Brasília (Federal District) Main Cities: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Porto Alegre, Recife Political System: Federative Republic President: Luis Inácio Lula da Silva

5 Chinese/Brazilian Economy (2009 ): Sources: Economist, World Bank, MOFCOM, GDP PPP :U$ 8.7 trillion U$ 2.0 trillion GDP :U$ 4.7 trillion U$ 1.5 trillion GDP per Capita PPP :U$ U$ GDP per Capita :U$ U$ GDP Growth 2009 :8.7 % -0.2% GDP Growth 2010 (est.) : 9.5% 6% Chinese currency GDP Per Sector Name: Ren Min Bi (RMB) Agriculture re 11 % 6 % Exchange rate (16/04/10): Industry 49 % 26% US$ 1 = 6.83 Yuan; Services 40 % 68% R$1=382Yuan 3.82 CIA

6 World U$ GDP PPP (2009) Source: IMF Country U$ Trillion USA 14.3 China 8.7 Japan India 3.5 Germany United Kingdom 2.2 France Russia 2.1 Brazil 2.0

7 Exports Brazil BRICs (U$ billion) Source: Brazil Govt. 20 China Russia Índia

8 Imports Brazil BRICs (U$ Billion) Source: Brazilian Govt 16 China Índia Rússia

9 BRICs Economies (2009) Fonte: CIA, IBGE Brazil Russia India China GDP growth rate 01% 0.1% -8.5% 61% 6.1% 87% 8.7% GDP per capita PPP $ $ $3.100 $6.500 Inflation rate 4.3% 11.9% 9.8% -0.7% Exports $153 bi $296 bi $155 bi $ 1.2 tri Imports $128 bi $197 bi $232 bi $ 1tri Foreign Reserves & $238 bi $439 bi $282 bi $2.2 2 tri Gold Population 198 mi 140 mi 1.1 bi 1.3 bi Foreign Debt $216 bi $369 bi $232 bi $347 bi Public Debt (% GDP) 46.8% 6.9% 60.1% 18.2% Investment (% GDP) 17% 20% 34% 43%

10 Finances - Brazil x China 2009 Source: Economist, CIA ,5 2 Foreign Debt (U$ bi) Foreign Reserves (U$ tri) 2.2 Brazil China Inflation p.a. (%) 4.3-0,7 Public Debt (% GDP) 47 Brazil China 1, Brazil China Brazil China 0,

11 Finances and costs Brazil-China (2009) Source: SAT - China State Administration of Tax, IBPT (Instituto Brasileiro de Planejamento Tributario) Tax Rate (%) Brazil China Interest Rate (%) 14 Brazil 12 China Labour Tax (%) Brazil China

12 Foreign Trade 2009: Source: Brazilian Govt, CIA, China Daily Exports U$ Var. Imports U$ Var. Brazil China 20 B +23% Brazil China 16 B -20% Brazil World 153 B -22% Brazil World 128 B -26% China World 1.2 T -16% China World 1 T - 11% Brazil-China surplus: U$ 4 B Brazil-World surplus: Total U$ 25 B China-World surplus: Total U$ 200 B

13 Largest Trade Partners - China (2009) Source: MOFCOM, CIA, US-China Exports (U$Billion) 1) USA 221 2) Hong Kong 166 3) Japan 98 4) South Korea 54 5) Germany 50 6) Netherlands 37 Imports (U$Billion) 1) Japan 131 2) South Korea 103 3) Taiwan 86 4) USA 78 5) Germany 56 6) Australia 40

14 Largest Trade Partners - Brazil (2009) Source: Brazilian Govt/ MDIC Exports (U$Billion) Imports (U$Billion) 1) China 20 2) USA 15 3) Argentina 13 4) Netherlands 8 5) Germany 6 6) Japan 4 1) USA 20 2) China 16 3) Argentina 11 4) Germany 10 5) Japan 5 6) South Korea 5

15 Souce: Brazilian Govt/ MDIC Main Products Brazil imports from China (2009) FOB (U$ milhões) Partc. % Total T O T A L 16 Bi Parts/ Components for Radio/ TV receptors 477 3% 2 LCD Displays % 3 Parts/ Components for Telephones/ Mobile Phones % 4 Colored Computer displays % 5 Integrated Circuits % 6 Gliphosate Salt % 7 Mobile Phones % 8 Microprocessors % 9 Printed Circuits 160 1% 10 Electric accumulators/ parts %

16 Source: Brazilian Govt/ MDIC Main Products Brazil Exports to China (2009) FOB Partc. % (U$) Total T O T A L 20 Bi Iron Ore Non aglomerated and fines 6.3 bi 31.5% 2 Soyabean grains 6.3 bi 31.4% 3 Crude Oil 13bi % 6.6% 4 Celulose wood pulp/ paste 891 mi 4.4% 5 Iron Ore - Aglomerated 657 mi 3.2% 6 Soybean Oil 399 mi 1.9% 7 Dried tobacco leaves 368 mi 1.8% 8 Airplanes and components, weight>15000kg 349 mi 1.7% 9 Niobium ore 346 mi 1.7% 10 Cast iron slabs/ products 342 mi 17% 1.7%

17 Brazil-China Trade Flow 25 * Projected Source: Brazilian Govt/ MDIC 24 U$ (Billion n) Exports Imports Brazilian importing companies Brazilian exporting companies *

18 Brazil-ChinaTrade Balance Source: Brazilian Govt/ MDIC $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 -$1 $0 $1 -$2 -$3 -$4 -$ Brazil China Surplus (Billion) U$

19 Infrastructure (2009) Source: CIA World Factbook, Gazeta Mercantil, China Daily Telecom (million) China Brazil Fixed phone lines Mobile phone lines Internet users

20 Infrastructure (2008/2009) Source: CIA World Factbook Transport China Brazil Rail (000 s miles) Paved Roads (million miles) Waterways (000 s miles) Airports (paved runways) * *Runways longer than 1 mile

21 Shipping In Brazil - Overview The Brazilian shipbuilding industry is a sleeping giant. In the late 1970s, the industry was second only to Japan in terms of output, but production slowed in the 1980s and 1990s as the sector found itself crowded out by China and other expanding Asian markets. The Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES) plans to invest BRL 18.2bn (US$10.2bn) over the next few years in developing the country's shipbuilding sector Financing will be provided by the government's Merchant Marine Fund (FMM). BRL 12.8bn (US$7.1bn) will be invested in developing prospective projects with the remainder going towards projects already in the early stages of development. The investment is expected to help the expansion of Brazil's liquid bulk and offshore sector as well as the country's naval fleet. Since 2000, the industry has experienced a revival of the industry, led, in large part, by the growth of the country's offshore oil sector

22 Shipping In Brazil - Overview Discoveries of new crude reserves off the south-east coast have led to an increased demand for tankers and offshore supply vessels from the state energy firm Petrobras and its ship owning subsidiary Transpetro. As Brazil gears up to become a net oil exporter, companies have looked at ways to reduce transportation costs Petrobras utilizes a fleet of 180 tankers, of which they own 53 vessels. In 2008, Petrobras spent US$619mn on chartered vessels from foreign owners. After lying largely dormant throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Brazilian shipyards may lack the technology and knowledge base to compete on a level playing field with Asian builders. A lack of skilled labor has been cited as a major concern and there have been suggestions that many yards may resort to sourcing workers from overseas to fill labor shortages. To improve their knowledge base, shipyards have begun to establish relationships with Asian builders, and in February 2009 the world's largest shipbuilder, South-Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), bought a 10% stake in OSX Brazil SA (OBX).

23 Brazilian Ports (2009) Fonte: ANTAQ Port Nº of containers moved (in thousands) Santos Paranaguá Rio Grande Navegantes Rio de Janeiro Suape Vitoria Itaguaí * Total Cargo moved (million tons)

24 Brazilian Ports Fonte: China Transporte Logística Port of Santos - Largest port in South America, responsible for handling around 25% of Brazil s foreign trade (by value). Santos lies 65 km from São Paulo, which is Brazil s largest city and the capital of the country s economically most important state. Port of Rio de Janeiro Located in the Guanabara Bay at the center of Brazil s second biggest city. Rio de Janeiro is Brazil s sixth biggest port and has excellent infrastructure logistics, linking it to the country s most important airports, highways and railroads. Port of Vitoria (Tubarão) - Located on the northern stretch of Brazil s South-east Coast, it is the second largest in the country in terms of cargo value. Vitória is one of the ports most likely to benefit from Brazil s recent major off-shore oil discoveries. Port of Paranaguá Largest port for exports of soy beans in Latin America, but it can handle all types of cargo. It is Brazil s largest port for shipping grains and the second largest maritime terminal. Covering more than 2.3 million square meters, Paranagua port has a storage capacity of over 1.2 million tons of bulk cargo.

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26 Shipping In China - Overview A major effort has been made to increase mechanization and containerization at major international ports in China. China's shipping industry and container transportation has reached international standards both in handling efficiency and building networks The China Containerized Freight Index measures shipping costs for exports from 10 major Chinese ports to 11 regions worldwide. Those costs have risen 17% since Jan/2010. The jump in the index means more goods are being transported from China, raising demand for shipping and increasing charter prices. This is a Chinese-only phenomenon. Shipping rates throughout the rest of the world, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index, fell sharply at the end of January and were flat throughout February. These data suggest a wave of exports coming out of China The indexes do not indicate what These data suggest a wave of exports coming out of China. The indexes do not indicate what goods are being shipped.

27 Shipping In China - Overview Two of China s main shipping lines saw their revenue fall by more than 40% last year on the back of declining volumes. However, Cosco and CSCL both remain bullish in their outlook for China Shipping Container, which is listed in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, is a unit of Shanghai-based China Shipping (Group) Co., the world's eighth-largest shipping company by capacity and parent of China Shipping Development Co. China Shipping Container Lines Co. said it swung to a net loss last year as the global financial crisis depressed its freight rates and squeezed traffic volume. China Cosco Holdings Co, the world's largest operator of dry-bulk ships predicts container volumes may increase 8 percent to 5.67 million twenty-foot containers in China Cosco, China Shipping Container, A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S and 12 other lines agreed to seek an increase in rates ($800 per 40-foot box increase in Asia-US west coast shipping rates in contract) to recuperate from losses in 2009 due to overcapacity and slumping trade.

28 Chinese Ports (2009) Fonte: China Daily, Ship Technology, htcenstatd.gov.hk Port Nº of containers (20 ) moved (millions) Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen Qingdao Ningbo Guangzhou Tianjin Dalian * * 2008 data Total Cargo moved (million tons) *

29 Chinese Ports Fonte: China Transporte Logística Shanghai Port - One of the most important ports in the world. Acts as one of China's main access points to foreign commerce. Dalian Port - Situated in the north-east of the Pacific Ocean, representing the entrance point for this region of China. Ideal for international transport between South-east Asia, North America and Europe. Tianjin Port- The largest artificial port in China. One of the most important commercial ports in the north of the country. Guangzhou Port - The largest port in the south of China. One of the ports that has been experiencing the largest growth in cargo as it is located in the capital city of the most industrial province of the country. Ningbo Port Largest port in the world in terms of moved cargo, concentrated mostly in grains, petroleum and minerals. Qingdao Port - The largest port of china for foreign trade of iron ore and brute Petroleum, ending 2009 with a total earnings of 315 million tons.

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31 Jiming i Temple - Nanjing Beijing Forbidden City

32 Shanghai - Pudong Hangzhou

33 Foz do Iguaçu Rio de Janeiro

34 São Paulo Brasília

35 Sources: BID IBGE MDIC Ministério de Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Asian Development Bank CCPIT - Chinese Chamber for Promotion of International Trade MOFCOM - Ministry of Commerce of China IMF - International Monetary Fund State Statistics of PRC Forbes CIA World Factbook The Economist FGV Fundação Getúlio Vargas EPI Earth Policy Institute GettyImages - Gettyimages.com Business Monitor Online ANTAQ National Agency of Maritime Transportantion World Port Source ShippingChina.com Dow Jones China Daily ChineseShipping.com