Climate Risk Management: Perspectives from South America

Transcription

1 WMO CIIFEN Climate Risk Management International Symposium, Guayaquil, Ecuador October 2011 Climate Risk Management: Perspectives from South America Rodney Martínez Güingla int.org

2 Outline Climate Risk Management: the conceptual approach. Building up a regional climate information system, Lessons learnt

3 1) Some conceptual principles

4 CLIMATE HYSTORICAL ANALYSIS CLIMATE FORECAST A Regional Climate early Warning System OPTIMIZE INFORMATION SYSTEMS Climate Variability Subseasonal (MJO) Seasonal Interannual (ENSO) Decadal CLIMATE EARLY WARNING SECTORAL SECTORAL CLIMATE CLIMATE RISK RISK MAPS MAPS Communicate to end user is the last mile to build up a real people Centered Climate EW system.. GENERATE GENERATE GOVERNMENTAL AND AND LOCAL LOCAL AUTHORITIES AUTHORITIES RESPONSE RESPONSE Martínez R., 2004

5 Early Warning From Early Warning to Climate Risk Management Governments Response Public Policies And other Instruments DISASTERS RISK REDUCTION, PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE, CONTINGENCY FUNDS RISK TRANSFERENCE SECTORAL PLANNING LAND USE MANAGEMENT DESCENTRALIZATION LOCAL AUTHORITIES Incentives SUSTAINABILITY AND IMPROVEMENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL IMPACTS REDUCTION Martínez R., 2004

6 Natural Hazards Social and Natural Hazards Ecosystems Dynamics Vulnerable Ecosystems Climate Hazards X Vulnerabilty = RISK Anthropic Hazards Community Dynamics Vulnerable Communities DISASTER = Not managed RISKS G.Wilches (2006) Communities and ecosystems interact permanently to generate different vulnerability levels to natural, anthropic or both hazards. The generated risks must be managed at present before start any adaptation process associatted with climate change in the future.

7 Risk management and CC adaptation: International Resources Group IRG (2007) Over the territory (land + community + ecosystems), related climate services Must address risk management and Climate change adaptation by assimilating the social, economical, environmental and institutional dimensions at local level in order to ensure a policy response.

8 2) Improving capabilities of NMHSs through a collective action.

9 WCSA Regional Climate Data Base First Data integration between NMHS from Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Online data display records. 171 meteorological stations with data from 1960 to Formal Protocol signed by the 6 NMHS and CIIFEN int.org

10 OPERATIONAL STATISTCAL DOWNSCALING

11 Improving Climate Modeling capacities in WCSA Statistical Regional Training Workshop. Maracay Venezuela, October2007. Numerical Modeling Regional Training Workshop. Guayaquil Ecuador, May 2008 More than 150 experts from the region have been trained since Dinamic Modeling Regional Training Workshop. Lima Peru, November 2007.

12 RCOF WCSA: Opportunity to identify needs in each country. Identify the potential benefits of a regional collective action. Identify key partners. Opportunity to review and coordinate further actions.

13 The evolution of the Seasonal Forecast in WCSA

14 Climate indexes are increasingly used in Andean countries. Martínez et al, 2011

15 REGIONAL ACTION PLAN (Guayaquil, Ecuador January 2011) ACTIVIDAD RESPONSABLE FECHA 1. Final report of the CIIFEN 31 January Workshop Letter to NMHSs informing CIIFEN 31 Januaryagreements and Regional 2011 Action Plan Quality control of designated stations Participants from NMHSs Trainers 30 June Homogenization of designated stations 5. Verification of Regional data set 6. Calculation of indices in each country 7. Final analysis, paper preparation and submission to a peer review Journal. Participants from NMHSs Trainers Regional Coordinator Trainers CIIFEN Participants from NMHSs Trainers Regional Coordinator participants NMHSs Trainers CIIFEN 31 October November December March 2012 NMHSs from 11 countries, > 307 stations

16 3) Understanding and approaching to vulnerability

17 Siniestralidad de eventos hidrometeorológicos (Inundaciones, lluvias fuertes, heladas, granizadas) al 2009

18 Understanding and assessing Vulnerability patterns at local scale

19 Climate Agriculture International Research Risk Centre Mapping on El System Niño in the Andean Countries BOLIVIA ECUADOR VENEZUELA COLOMBIA CROPS: Venezuela: Rice, Corn, Sorghum and Sesame Colombia: Flowers (Roses), Rice. Ecuador: Corn, soybean and rice. Bolivia: Potato, haba y quinoa. Perú: Potato, corn and artichoke. Chile: citrus(orange, lemon and Mandarin orange), avocato. CHILE PERÚ

20 Published December 2009 Chapter I: The Virtual Core of Climatic Applications (NVAC) Chapter II: Implementation of statistical models for climatic prediction Chapter III: Implementation of Numerical Models for climatic prediction Chapter IV: Implementation of Agro climatic Risk Maps Chapter V: Implementation of local systems of climatic information dissemination Chapter VI: Strengthening building capacity in the in the South America west region Chapter VII: Performance Indicators. Chapter VIII: Learned lessons Chapter IX: future actions Chapter X: Elements of Sustainability ftp://ciifenint.org/technical_guide_of_a_regional_climate_i nformation_system.pdf

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22 Área de estudio Golfo de Guayaquil, Ecuador

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24 Estimación de la Amenaza integral 1 Variación a mediano y largo plazo del patrón de precipitaciones (A1). 2 Variación a mediano y largo plazo de la temperatura (A2) Incremento del nivel del mar (A3). 4 5 Variaciones en la salinidad media en el área de la reserva (A4). Variaciones en el ph en el área de la reserva (A5). Variaciones en la temperatura del agua en el área de la reserva (A6) Cambios en los patrones de circulación en el área de la reserva (A7).

25 Estimación de la Vulnerabilidad Expansión de áreas de urbanización (V1). Incremento de población en zonas marginales aledañas (V2). Disminución de la calidad de agua en el estuario (V3). Contaminación marina de tipo industrial (V4). Sobreexplotación de recursos (V5). Actividad marítima (V6).

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27 4) The effort on implementing information systems

28 Climate International Information Research Centre system on El in Niño the Andean countries Involving Private sector Statistical Analysis Risk maps Bulletins Internet Newspaper Modeling Climate Data Base Technical Information with added value Information translated into simple language Media articles Movil messages Radio Mobil Phones Magazines Wide dissemination by media Radio End User Authorities Private Sector Rescue Groups Community

29 Community based Climate Information Network Authorities and Community Local Media Private Sector Working with the Community.. To Local Risk Reduction

30 Improving the Climate information Chain (1) Alliances Signed with Key Stakeholders Information Flow with the media Including private sector Private Sector Chile: V Región oct/08 Venezuela: Maracay sept/08 Mobil Phone Company Ecuador: Los Ríos mar08 Bolivia: El Alto dic08 Perú, aug./08

31 Improving the Climate information Chain (2) Alliance with Telefónica MOVISTAR Installation of HF Radio Equipment for alternate emergency communications MOVISTAR and MESSAGE PLUS, agreed to assign free messages to a group of 1000 users previously identified in areas prone to flooding. INAMHI inform: intense precipitation over central zone of Manabí for the next 6 hours. WARNING. Installation of radio equipment for 10 locations of intervention area in Ecuador. Divided between the offices of INAMHI and COEs ESMERALDAS CHONE BABAHOYO Pachaqamasa radio (El Alto, Bolivia) enterview about climate information use in Aymará native language Use of Climate Risk Maps Training Workshops. Ministry of Litoral Ecuador MACHALA Applied to: Agriculture, Health, Education, Building, Human settlements and Biodiversity. BOLIVIA NMS is working on translation and bulletins shipping with Forecast in Aymará through Pachaqamasa radio (Bolivia)

32 International Learning from Research local users Centre to tailor on El climate Niño products

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34 5) Lessons learnt

35 Some first learnt lessons (1) Each Development Sector requires a specific approach to assess its vulnerability that is different be validated case by case. The participation of NMHSs is crucial to estimate climate indexes, retrieve historical data and understand past adverse past events. For vulnerability analysis is better to include meaningful but few variables instead many of them with uncertain value.. CRM must be implemented at local level. NMHSs should generate and disseminate climate products adn services consistently for different CRM phases.

36 Some first learnt lessons (2) The local climate knowledge and the current risk perception must be assimilated. To design an adaptation strategy is critical to start with the present climate risk management plan to address the local needs. Engaging communities, extending climate services at local communities and enhancing the relationship with the vulnerable population will be some key elements to underpin a new business model for NMHSs in the future.

37 Thanks for your attention!! int.org Phone: (593 4) Fax: (593 4) E mail: r.martinez@ciifen int.org Guayaquil, Ecuador.