The Corcoran Report 2Q 2018 EAST END

Transcription

1 The Corcoran Report 2Q 2018 EAST END

2 2Q2018 EAST END 2 Contents SOUTH FORK PAGE 3 NORTH FORK PAGE 6 LUXURY MARKET PAGE 8 LAND PAGE 9 COMMERCIAL PAGE 9 INVENTORY PAGE 9 Methodology & Source Welcome to the Second Quarter 2018 Corcoran Report, our quarterly comparison of the East End s residential real estate market. This report uses market-wide data from the Long Island Real Estate Report and is based upon transactions reported from April through June It compares data to that reported in the same period of For the purposes of the South Fork market comparison, this report contrasts the villages and hamlets from Remsenburg to Montauk, plus Shelter Island, while the North Fork encompasses the area extending from Aquebogue to Orient. The Corcoran Group is a licensed real estate broker located at 1936 Montauk Highway, Bridgehampton, NY

3 2Q2018 EAST END 3 Water Mill $5.9M Web# South Fork Second Quarter 2018 saw a slight 2% increase in reported sales versus Second Quarter Sales volume, however, increased strongly, rising 15% yearover-year. More large, high-end homes sold, driving sales volume up as well as average price, which increased 13%. Median price exhibited a more moderate increase of 4% as high-priced sales tend to skew this statistic less. Reported sales increased in seven submarkets, with the largest improvements in Southampton (24%), Water Mill (50%) and East Hampton Village (58%). Price statistics also improved in a majority of areas. Several saw massive increases in average price of over 50%: East Hampton, Bridgehampton/Sagaponack and Amagansett all had notable increases in sales over $5M, skewing their averages up. However, the opposite occurred in Southampton Village, with fewer highend sales causing average price to dip 38%. The steadiest market was East Quogue/Hampton Bays, where the number of sales, volume and average price were nearly unchanged. Median price, however, dropped 9% as the number of sales over $600k fell, but a deal over $5M kept the average price from changing. Sales 544 2% YEAR OVER YEAR Average Price $2.071M 13% YEAR OVER YEAR Volume $1.127B 15% YEAR OVER YEAR Median Price $1.031M 4% YEAR OVER YEAR

4 2Q2018 EAST END 4 The South Fork AMAGANSETT 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $47.96M $37.12M 29% AVERAGE $2.998M $1.954M 53% MEDIAN $2.025M $1.6M 27% MONTAUK 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $44.548M $46.987M -5% AVERAGE $1.937M $1.74M 11% MEDIAN $1.3M $1.1M 18% BRIDGEHAMPTON/SAGAPONACK 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $ M $59.728M 70% AVERAGE $4.411M $2.844M 55% MEDIAN $2.7M $2M 35% SAG HARBOR/NORTH HAVEN 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $89.022M $ M -20% AVERAGE $1.68M $1.993M -16% MEDIAN $995K $1.422M -30% EAST HAMPTON 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $ M $ M 48% AVERAGE $1.861M $1.15M 62% MEDIAN $975K $849K 15% QUOGUE VILLAGE/QUOGUE 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $49.654M $35.51M 40% AVERAGE $2.759M $2.089M 32% MEDIAN $1.588M $1.4M 13% EAST HAMPTON VILLAGE 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $141.17M $68.855M 105% AVERAGE $7.43M $5.738M 29% MEDIAN $7M $3.973M 76% SOUTHAMPTON 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $83.707M $71.532M 17% AVERAGE $1.372M $1.46M -6% MEDIAN $985K $992K -1% EAST QUOGUE/HAMPTON BAYS 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $55.956M $54.358M 3% AVERAGE $602K $591K 2% MEDIAN $470K $515K -9% SOUTHAMPTON VILLAGE 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $87.215M $157.92M -45% AVERAGE $3.354M $5.446M -38% MEDIAN $1.781M $2.8M -36%

5 2Q2018 EAST END 5 The South Fork WATER MILL 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $ M $ M 22% AVERAGE $3.945M $4.848M -19% MEDIAN $2.913M $3.725M -22% REMSENBURG/WESTHAMPTON 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $62.715M $56.013M 12% AVERAGE $1.28M $1.273M 1% MEDIAN $899K $819K 10% SHELTER ISLAND 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $14.724M $21.584M -32% AVERAGE $920K $938K -2% MEDIAN $850K $750K 13% East of the canal, the high-end was strong. Sales over $5M grew to 13% of the market this quarter, up from 8% last year. The market share of sales from $3M to $5M and $1M to $2M both shrank 2%. West of the canal, the higher-end was steady, with market share over $2M minimally changed. The $1M to $2M price category had a noticeable growth from 12% to 16% of the market. Market Share by Price Range SOUTH FORK EAST OF THE CANAL Market Share by Price Range SOUTH FORK WEST OF THE CANAL UNDER $500K $500K-$1M $1M-$2M $2M-$3M $3M-$5M $5M+ UNDER $500K $500K-$1M $1M-$2M $2M-$3M $3M-$5M $5M+ 100% 13% 8% 100% 4% 2% 3% 4% 4% 1% 80% 10% 10% 12% 9% 80% 16% 12% 60% 28% 30% 60% 38% 41% 40% 40% 20% 32% 32% 20% 38% 38% 0% 8% 9% 0% 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 Due to rounding, graphs may not equal 100%. Due to rounding, graphs may not equal 100%.

6 2Q2018 EAST END 6 Southold $4.75M Web# North Fork North Fork sales improved in Second Quarter 2018, with 11% more closings reported. Aquebogue/Jamesport was particularly strong, with reported sales up 60%, as was Mattituck/Laurel, where sales increased 29%. These gains offset drops in Southold and Greenport. There were fewer high-end sales over $1.5M on the North Fork, causing average price to drop 8%. In contrast, median price grew 16%, and was up in every submarket. A flurry of deals in the $600k to $800k range pulled the median higher. Just as in sales, Aquebogue/Jamesport was the best performing area for pricing, with average up 25% and median up 18%. Sales % YEAR OVER YEAR Average Price $721K -8% YEAR OVER YEAR Volume $ M 2% YEAR OVER YEAR Median Price $579K 16% YEAR OVER YEAR

7 2Q2018 EAST END 7 The North Fork AQUEBOGUE/JAMESPORT 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $18.038M $8.995M 101% AVERAGE $564K $450K 25% MEDIAN $511K $435K 18% EAST MARION/ORIENT 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $11.478M $12.529M -8% AVERAGE $883K $1.044M -15% MEDIAN $765K $759K 1% GREENPORT 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $7.917M $8.993M -12% AVERAGE $660K $600K 10% MEDIAN $527K $490K 8% SOUTHOLD 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $23.694M $28.55M -17% AVERAGE $718K $714K 1% MEDIAN $635K $544K 17% MATTITUCK/LAUREL 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $39.12M $39.101M 0% AVERAGE $798K $1.029M -22% MEDIAN $625K $537K 16% Market Share by Price Range UNDER $350K $350K-$500K $500K-$750K $750K-$1M $1M-$1.5M $1.5M+ 100% 80% 60% 40% 6% 8% 14% 32% 9% 8% 10% 22% 37% Mid-market homes on the North Fork were very strong this quarter. The market share of sales between $500K and $750K grew from 22% to 32% of the market. In turn, the $350K to $500K price category saw its market share drop 10%. Also improving was the $750K to $1M market, which rose to 14% of sales from 10% in Second Quarter The top of the North Fork market, sales $1.5M and above, had fewer reported transactions. 20% 27% 0% 12% 14% 2Q18 2Q17 Due to rounding, graphs may not equal 100%.

8 2Q2018 EAST END 8 The Residential Luxury Market The luxury market is defined as the top 10% of all residential sales made within the period being reported. As various factors redefine the high-end market in any given period, these numbers may exhibit more volatility than the market overall. It was a better quarter for luxury on the South Fork as compared to a year ago. Average price was up 17% and median price was up 18%. A notable pick-up in sales reported over $5M meant that the minimum price to be in top 10% this quarter was $4.9M, whereas last year the luxury threshold was $3.8M. On the North Fork, the luxury market did not fare as well. Average price decreased 31% and median price decreased 18%. Fewer deals over $2M this quarter drove these statistics lower. SOUTH FORK 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $ M $ M 19% AVERAGE $9.122M $7.818M 17% MEDIAN $7.075M $6M 18% NORTH FORK 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $26.01M $35.02M -26% AVERAGE $1.858M $2.694M -31% MEDIAN $1.544M $1.875M -18% Wainscott $16.750M Web# Southampton $11.5M Web#

9 2Q2018 EAST END 9 Land & Commercial Market OVERVIEW The land market is defined as the total sales of all vacant land on the East End regardless of zoning classifications. The commercial market encompasses sales of existing buildings classified for non-residential use only. Traditionally both Forks experience relatively few commercial transactions in any given quarter. SOUTH FORK (LAND) 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $97.654M $58.933M 66% AVERAGE $1.436M $1.016M 41% MEDIAN $775K $660K 17% THE LAND MARKET The market for vacant land rebounded versus last year. Reported closings rose 17% on the South Fork and 67% on the North Fork. The South Fork had a significant increase in average price of 41%, and a lower but still solid 17% increase in median price. More deals over $3M drove the price statistics higher. On the North Fork, price statistics declined significantly with average down 61% and median down 26%. Last year a few vacant land parcels over $1M were reported closed, skewing figures higher. THE COMMERCIAL MARKET The commercial market was improved in the East End. Sales were up, with the South Fork seeing 10% more transactions and the North Fork an impressive 300% more. South Fork average price more than doubled year-over year as it was skewed up by the sale of the Montauk Yacht Club. Median price, however, fell 14% versus Second Quarter 2017 as there were more commercial transactions reported under $1M. On the North Fork, there were very few sales last year, and none reported over $1.4M. This year half of reported sales were over that threshold, bringing average and median price significantly higher. NORTH FORK (LAND) 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $9.321M $14.209M -34% AVERAGE $266K $677K -61% MEDIAN $221K $300K -26% SOUTH FORK (COMMERCIAL) 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $96.444M $42M 130% AVERAGE $4.384M $2.1M 109% MEDIAN $1.298M $1.518M -14% NORTH FORK (COMMERCIAL) 2Q18 2Q17 %CHG (YR) SALES % VOLUME $31.762M $3.392M 836% AVERAGE $1.985M $848K 134% MEDIAN $1.459M $809K 80% INVENTORY INVENTORY Inventory is the total number of East End properties listed for sale at the end of a particular period. Second Quarter 2018 inventory was 5,767 listings, 4% below the last year s level. However, versus First Quarter 2018 inventory increased, which represented the first quarter-over-quarter increase since Third Quarter NUMBER OF UNITS