Commercial Space Transportation

Transcription

1 Commercial Space Transportation James R. (Russ) McMurry Principal Senior Counsel Space Exploration The Boeing Company AIAA CASE Track 3 12 September 2012 BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.

2 Boeing s Human Rated Space Legacy Mercury Apollo Command & Service Module Apollo Launch Space Shuttle Gemini Skylab Saturn V Lunar Rover Apollo-Soyuz Test Project Space Station Our Vision is to Enable a Broad Human Space Flight Market

3 Boeing Commercial Crew Overview Simple capsule design on proven rocket with a focused mission Safe and reliable Low operations cost Low development risk 3

4 Commercial Crew Transportation Operations Concept Launch Mission control Landing Pad operations Atlas V Pre-launch processing Manufacturing and test Recovery 4

5 CCDev Demonstrations Landing Bag Drop Tests VIDEO Uprighting Test Life Support Demonstration Crew Module Mockup 5

6 CCDev Demonstrations Heat Shield Fab VIDEO Pressure Vessel structural test Arc jet test Abort Engine Test Firing Integrated Automated Rendezvous & Docking Sim 6

7 Benefits of Commercial Crew Market We believe a commercial LEO market will ultimately develop, enabling new business opportunities for industry, lower costs for NASA, and a new venue for global access to space NASA funding for development of a commercial crew system will maintain U.S. leadership in HSF and hasten the emerging commercial LEO platform market Commercial market incubation will result Commercial LEO platform customers beyond NASA will launch (Bigelow) Human presence drives commerce Global utilization of LEO market Once commercial LEO platforms become operational, NASA will benefit from reduced crew transportation service costs (economies of scale) A commercial focus on LEO will enable NASA to expend the majority of its attention on Beyond LEO missions for deep space exploration NASA Will Benefit Directly From a Commercial LEO Market

8 Potential Commercial Customers BDS Network & Space Systems Space Exploration NASA Crew Transportation Orbital Technologies Copyright 2009 Copyright Boeing. All 2010 rights Boeing. reserved. All rights reserved. 8

9 Summary As pioneers of commercial aviation, Boeing is excited to be a part of pioneering a new commercial space venture Boeing can do in space what we ve done in commercial aviation We see no technical barriers to the design, development & build of a low-cost commercial crew system NASA funding provides the impetus to increase the potential for development of the commercial HSF market We Stand Ready to Support NASA in Their New Vision as the Provider of Commercial Crew Services to LEO 9/23/2012 9

10 Challenges for Commercial Space Liability Challenges No established Risk Management Regime as in traditional Launch Unknown Potential Plaintiffs New insurance market Regulatory Challenges NASA commercial program---nasa or FAA control? ITAR considerations---what must be considered a defense service? Balancing Safety and Innovation in early regulatory schemes Programmatic and Acquisition Challenges NASA commercial program---nasa or FAA control? ITAR considerations---what must be considered a defense service? FAR vs. SAA Number of viable Competitors Industry business case 9/23/

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12 NASA Liability Risk Allocation Status Shuttle Era Indemnification provided Defense nexus originated with early DoD missions and Vandenberg Launch Defense missions prohibited post Challenger Indemnification determination issued in perpetuity 15 June 2006 Current traditional NASA cost type programs (Space Launch System {SLS} and Multipurpose Crew Vehicle {MPCV}) Contact clauses enabling Contractors requests for indemnification granted under these clause for limited specific events (Ares 1X test) NASA concerned with defense nexus requirement Commercial Programs (Commercial Crew Development {CCiCap}) No NASA acceptance of third party liability risks Contractors left with commercial risk management protocols CSLA 12

13 NASA Risk Allocation Shift Impacts Moving Human Space Flight (HSF) from a Government to commercial model changes liability risk allocation Shuttle contractors enjoyed full Governmental indemnification and the Government Contractor Defense Commercial model subjects HSF contractors (designers, OEMs and operators) to liability exposure Risk Management for commercial HSF challenging: New risk mitigation protocols New industry; minimal regulation at present Insurance coverage and price uncertain; no claims history Grounds for legal action and legal venues uncertain Potentially enterprise threatening risk in event of catastrophic loss High net worth Plaintiffs abound 13

14 Commercial Crew Transportation Operational Risk Boost Crew Safety 3 rd Party Liability (staging debris) Docking Crew Safety Damage to Space Station ISS Crew Safety 3 rd Party Liability (Station/CST-100 de-orbit) Re-Entry Crew Safety 3 rd Party Liability (service module debris) Abort Crew Safety 3 rd Party Liability (service module debris) Integration & Test Integration/Transportation Issues Hazardous Operations System Test/Checkout Facility Damage Pre-Launch Landing Checkout (on-pad) Crew Safety Hazardous Operations (onpad) Recovery Operations 3 rd Party Liability Crew Ingress/Egress Facility Damage 3 rd Party Liability Copyright rd Boeing. Party All rights Liability reserved. 14

15 Commercial Crew Transportation Liability Risk Mitigation Road Map 15

16 Regulatory Challenges Regulatory Environment NASA only USG agency with expertise in human space flight safety (NASA owns HRR) Some uncertainy around CSLA regime extension into CY-13 FAA empowered in 2015 to regulate crew launch and re-entry Is that appropriate for Orbital Flight? Is that appropriate for Suborbital Flight? NASA/FAA role uncertainty increases risk Mitigated by recent MOU; working relationship Complexity: NASA owns expertise; FAA has authority No one has on-orbit regulatory authority FCC and communications protocols HIPPA ITAR ITAR compliance generally Passenger experience sufficient? Export of Space Vehicle viable? Unresolved Issues will Deter Market Entry

17 Acquisition and Programmatic Issues FAR vs. SAA Misnomer About level of oversight rather than legal authority Only one current customer for crew to LEO: NASA NASA ISS market size inadequate to support multiple suppliers Sole Source to Russians today Additional development extends lack of competition and NRE recoupment Waste of industry and Government funds for those not selected NASA can compete domestic vs. Russian transportation for competitive assessments Unknown revenue base from potential commercial users over which to spread investment International competition from government-subsidized systems can limit market capture Government solution to ISS would end program and divert BEO resources Unresolved Issues will Deter Market Entry

18 A Broad Spectrum of Potential Paths Forward 737 Airliner Commercial Development Boeing funds non-recurring (assumes cost risk) Over 200 customers provide input to design Boeing retains design authority FAA certifies compliance with well understood and tested certification requirements Navy P-8 Poseidon Cost-Plus Fixed Fee Development Navy funds non-recurring (assumes cost risk) Navy is only customer owns requirements Navy retains design authority Navy approves compliance with unique/first-use set of requirements NASA & Boeing share non-recurring (CCDev) NASA & commercial customer (Bigelow) provide input to design; NASA owns HRR Boeing retains design authority with NASA insight only NASA reviews and approves compliance with HRR (unique/first use requirements) Challenge: Finding a business model that bounds industry risk in bidding a fixed price development contract with NASA ownership of HRR and TBD level of insight

19 Opportunities for NASA to Ensure Market Entry Mitigate obstacles with SAA fixed price development contracts Verify that our commercial crew design architecture will satisfy NASA human rating requirements (HRR) prior to fixed price DDT&E bid Define RAA for determining and approving HRR between NASA and FAA Resolve concerns around financial, liability and regulatory risks so that industry can close a business case for this new market Provide appropriate liability relief for each risk category Eliminate Termination for Convenience clause without TL Fund the significant portion of DDT&E of commercial systems Invest in required infrastructure and maintain ownership of major assets Execute the appropriate level of NASA insight required for a commercialtype contract Need resolution of these issues 9/23/

20 Additional Business Case Issues/Concerns Emerging, unpredictable markets involve high risk TBD revenue base from potential commercial customers Inability to rely on commercial market to recoup up-front investment and start-up costs Future commercial market limited due to subsidized international competitors India, China, Russia Potential competition for internal NASA funding and external venture capital against a fully funded Deep Space capsule development program ISS is the only LEO platform requiring crew transportation services Business case will have to close on those mission requirements alone Even NASA market is not sufficient to recoup private investment Max NASA market entails 2-4 flights/year with multiple providers Resolution of new market liability and regulatory standards Expand CSLA indemnification to cover crew and in-orbit ops Need time for a private insurance regime to mature to cover industry risk

21 Integrated Defense Systems "We are embarked as pioneers upon a new science and industry in which our problems are so new and unusual that it behooves no one to dismiss any novel idea with the statement that 'It can't be done!' Bill Boeing BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY COMPETITION SENSITIVE 21