German South African Business Relation. 9 May 2018 Rechtsanwalt Frank Aletter, LL.M.

Transcription

1 German South African Business Relation 9 May 2018 Rechtsanwalt Frank Aletter, LL.M.

2 Content A. South Africa at a Glance B. Strong provinces C. Trade Relations D. The German Chamber Network

3 A. South Africa at a Glance

4 Economy overview GDP growth in % ( ) Comments 5,4 Slow growth due to political uncertainty Volatile currencey 3,2 3 3,3 Partial implementation of the National Development Plan is expected 2,2 2,3 1,6 1,3 0,6 1,3 1,5* Government has increased taxes and lowered public expenses Discussion about Expropriation without Compensation puts a strain on investment ,5 *2018 forecast Source: GTAI

5 South Africa global context Most important export countries for Germany outside Europe 2017 (in Billion Euro) USA VR China Turkey Japan Korean Republic Mexico UAE India Canada South Africa Australia Brasil Taiwan Hongkong Saudi-Arabia 111,53 86,22 21,46 19,53 17,47 12,91 11,09 10,69 9,68 9,53 9,44 8,46 7,68 6,87 6,59 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 Source: Destatis

6 South Africa African context South Africa s economy compared with other African countries (GDP share in 2017 in Subsahara-Africa) South Afrtica Nigeria Angola Kenya Ethopia Other countries Source: GTAI

7 South Africa in the region Trade: SADC Germany SADC Export to Germany, 2017 Trade: SADC Germany SADC Import from Germany, 2017 South Africa Botswana DR Kongo Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia South Africa South Africa Botswana DR Kongo Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia South Africa Tanzania Tanzania Zambia Zambia Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Source: DEstatis

8 Impact of the tourism sector on the South African economy GDP contribution of the toursim sector 1 of 23 employees work in the toursim sector* 2,9% *4,4% of employees Source: StatsSA

9 Impact of the tourism sector on the South African economy GVA of toursim is higher than mining More people work in the toursim industry than in the mining sector Industrty share: Contribution to GDP (GVA) Employees (in 1000) Agriculture 2% Services 118 Tourism 3% Mining 444 Services 4% Tourism 687 Construction 4% Agriculture 874 Private Services 6% Transport 910 Mining 8% Private household Transport 10% Construction Manufacturing 13% Maunfacturing Trade 15% Finance Public 18% Trade Finance 20% Society Soiurce: StatsSA

10 SWOT Analysis of South Africa Strengths Weaknesses Large sales market with almost 54 million inhabitants Relatively good infrastructure Broad industrial base that allows the entry into the African continent Stable political situation Skills shortage Electricity shortages and losses: problems for energy-intensive industries Lack of management skills High crime rate Opportunities Threats Large state infrastructure programs Rising demand for electricity provides opportunities for renewable energy High import demand especially for machines and plants Consuming growing middle class Rising energy prices Social imbalances and protests could undermine the long-term stability of the country Frequent and often wild strike action Growing conflicts over economic policy Source: GTaI

11 B. Strong provinces

12 Gautengs economy has approx. the same size as Mococco Provinces compared with countries with a similar GDP, 2016 Source: StatsSA

13 KwaZulu-Natal Composition of the province s demographics in % Comments 2,4 1 7,1 Black % White - 2.4% Coloured - 1.0% Size: km 2 Share of land area: 7.7% Share of national population: 19.6% Number of households: 2.83 million Gini coefficient: 0.61 [VALUE] Asian/ Indian - 7.1% Quelle: Statistics SA

14 KwaZulu-Natal Proportions of provincial GDP in % Comments Agriculture 1,3 Mining Manufacturing [VALUE] 14,3 Electricity, Gas & Water 5,5 Construction Trade 15,3 4,3 Transport 12,4 13,7 Finance Community, Social & Personal Services General Government Services 16,1 3,5 Contribution to national GDP: 16.0% Provincial GDP: bn ZAR GDP per head: R44,584 GDP growth rate: 0.8% Manufacturing is the largest contributor to provincial GDP Assessed taxpayers as a proportion of SA total: 14.1% Unemployment rate: 24% Quelle: Statistics SA

15 Western Cape Composition of the province s demographics in % Comments 49,7 0,6 [VALUE] Black % White % Coloured % Size: km 2 Share of land area: 10.6% Share of national population: 11.5% Number of households: 1.83 million Gini coefficient: 0.6 Asian/ Indian - 0.6% 16,5 Quelle: Statistics SA

16 Western Cape Proportions of provincial GDP in % Comments Agriculture Mining 0,2 13,7 Contribution to national GDP: 13.6% Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Construction Trade Transport Finance 6,1 22,9 10,2 [VALUE] 5,3 15,4 10 2,6 Provincial GDP: bn ZAR GDP per head: R66,937 GDP growth rate: 1.5% Finance is the largest contributor to provincial GDP Assessed taxpayers as a proportion of SA total: 15.8% Unemployment rate: 20.7% Community, Social & Personal Services General Government Services Quelle: Statistics SA

17 C. Trade Relations

18 South Africa bilateral relations Main export countries 2016, share in % 18.1% 49% 11.8% 6.7% China (VR) Germany USA India Saudi-Arabia Japan France Other countries 3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% Source: StatsSA

19 Trade between Germany and South Africa Trade: Germany South Africa Billions Euro Imports from South Africa to Germany 5,1 4,7 4,9 5,9 5,1 7,3 Exports to South Africa from Germany 8,8 8,5 8,3 9,6 7,5 9,5 Total 13,9 13,2 13,2 15,5 12,6 16,8 Balance 3,7 3,8 3,4 3,7 2,4 2,2 Germany is South Africa s Second most important exporter Third most important importer Ranking Trading Partners (2016): 28 Comment Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 82

20 Trade between Germany and Mozambique Trade: Germany Mozambique Million Euro Imports from Mozambique to Germany 124,9 153,6 120,7 150,2 136,2 237,5 Exports to Mozambique from Germany 63,5 91,7 92,4 120,7 55,6 56,4 Total 188,4 245,3 213,1 270,9 191,8 293,9 Balance 61,4 61,9 28,3 29,5 80,6 181,1 Comment Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 109 Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 138

21 Trade between Germany and Zambia Trade: Germany Zambia Million Euro Imports from Zambia to Germany 34,3 32,0 23,5 25,7 35,8 52,6 Exports to Zambia from Germany 89,0 153,3 78,7 58,0 55,1 62,3 Total 123,3 185,3 101,6 83,7 90,0 114,9 Balance -54,7-121,3-54,6-32,3-19,3-9,7 Comment Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 135 Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 85

22 Trade between Germany and Zimbabwe Trade: Germany Zimbabwe Million Euro Imports from Zimbabwe to Germany 49,2 58,6 55,5 40,8 62,3 59,2 Exports to Zimbabwe from Germany 57,3 37,8 31,4 45,1 27,2 28,2 Total 106,5 96,4 86,9 85,9 89,5 87,4 Balance -8,1 20,8 24,1-4,3 35,1 31,0 Comment Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 145 Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 159

23 German Foreign Direct Investment into South Africa German FDI (in Mio. EUR) Comments 6,558 6,082 5,668 5,81 5,969 5,281 5,336 4,993 4,697 4,043 4,063 3,875 3,604 3,694 3,489 3,108 3,038 3,178 2,476 2, All sectors Processing Trade Since 2009 German FDI into processing trade has been decreasing Re-investinstment is taking place Reasons: negative market development, Change in investment framework (amendment of B-BBEE scorecard, visa regulations, water and electricity supply, lack of skilled worker) Source: Deutsche Bundesbank

24 D. The German Chamber Network

25 Worldwide support with 130 offices in 90 countries Algeria Angola Argentina Australia Austria Azerbaijan Baltic States Belarus Belgium Bolivia Bosnia-Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Canada Central America Central Asia Chile China Columbia Costa Rica Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Finland France Ghana Greece Guatemala Honduras Hongkong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea Latvia Lithuania Luxemburg Macedonia Malaysia Mexiko Morocco Myanmar Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Nigeria Norway Oman Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russia Saudi-Arabia Serbia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Southern Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Tunisia Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Uruguay USA Venezuela Vietnam

26 The Chamber Network in Africa Accra Lagos 14 locations in 12 countries representing in total: Nairobi 93 % German Exports 88 % German Imports Johannesburg Kapstadt Lusaka Maputo Durban

27 The AHK Southern Africa serves 12 countries with 5 offices Johannesburg Head Office of the SA-German Chamber of Commerce Management s headquarters Competence Centres for Mineral Resources, and CSR & Training Cape Town Representation in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape Competence Centre: Sustainable Energies Durban Representation in KwaZulu Natal Main focus: industry and Durban port development Maputo, Mozambique First office established outside of South Africa Main focus: Market development, i.a. raw materials and infrastructure Lusaka, Zambia Second office established outside of South Africa Main focus: Market development, i.a. mining and mineral resources

28 Delegation Offices in Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Mr Ricardo Gerigk Website: Ghana Mr Maximilian Butek Website: Kenya Ms Maren Diale-Schellschmidt Website: Nigeria Mr Marc Lucassen Website:

29 The three pillars of the Chamber The three pillars of the Chamber Business Services Service provider for companies Service brand: DEinternational e.g. Market studies, events, workshops, etc. Trade Promotion Official representation of German industry and commerce Promoting the interests of German companies in southern Africa Promote, inform about the German economy Networking Member organisation Collective strength of members More than 600 companies are part of our network

30 Thank you for your attention!

31 Contact person Frank Aletter, LL.M. Deputy CEO Tel. +27 (0)