Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Tourist Volume in Tourist Attraction Based on Network Data

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1 Correlation Analsis and Prediction of Tourist Volume in Tourist Attraction Based on Network Data Kewei Lei* College of Leisure Management, Xi an Eurasia Universit, Xi an7006, Shaani, China Xiaohui Wang College of Leisure Management, Xi an Eurasia Universit, Xi an7006, Shaani, China Abstract With the rapid development of China s tourism industr, the number of tourists in some famous scenic spots is increasing graduall. Especiall, during some long vacations like the Ma Da Holida and National Da Holida, the number of tourists in a lot of scenic spots is overwhelming, far beond the carring capacit of scenic spots. Accuratel predicting the number of tourists in a short term is important for scenic spots to make timel management and take corresponding actions. For the traditional method of forecasting tourist, the data mainl relies on the well-structured statistical reports published b government. However, the collection and collation of statistical data are often lagging behind, and the scale of data can hardl meet the requirements of model forecasting, which greatl limits the application of traditional prediction methods. Taking Terracotta Warriors and Scenic Area as an eample, this paper uses the rich and timel network search data to investigate the correlation between network search data and tourist volume during National Da Holida, and predict the number of tourists in scenic spots. The results show that linear equation can better capture the relationship between user attention and actual number of. The comparative analsis of the number of das in advance indicates that more accurate results will be obtained when the tourists are forecasted with - das in advance of user attention data. This also confirms the precursor effect between users attention and the number of. Ke words:network data, Terracotta Warriors and Scenic Area, tourists, Correlation, Prediction.. INTRODUCTION The rise of Internet technolog makes the dissemination of tourism information no longer subject to time and space constraints. Man tourist attractions as well as tourism enterprises use the important platform, the Internet, to release tourism information, and the Internet platform is also graduall becoming an important source of information for the majorit of tourists. Before travelling, tourists often eperience a process of making the travelling decisions [Huang, 07;Song, 008]. With the popularit of the Internet and the development of smart phone technolog, the Internet has alread become an important travel aid and decisionmaking tool. Tourism activit is a comple social behavior subject to the influence of seasons, s leisure time and the destination popularit. People search the Internet for information about the travel destination before travel, which changes the online attention of travelling destination [Li, 07]. Thus, it can be inferred that there is a comple relationship between tourists travel activities and online attention. Attention to a scenic spot is a reflection of a scenic spot s capacit to receive tourists and the virtual flow of tourists. Appropriate kewords of network attention are selected to obtain the Baidu inde so as to measure the number of tourists to some etent [Yang, 0]. Xi an is a famous tourist cit and Terra-cotta Warriors and Scenic Area is located at.m in the east of Qin Shi Huang Mausoleum, Lin tong District, Xi an. It is a part of the tomb of Qin Shi Huang Mausoleum pits, and a large number of terracotta warriors and horses have been unearthed in three pits. At present, leaders of more than 00 countries have visited Qin Terracotta Warriors and Pit, which is also a golden name card of tourism in Xi an. In the contet of the current large-scale network ear, prediction of the number of scenic spot s tourist based on network searching data can timel monitor scenic spots. Therefore, based on the timeliness of network search data, this paper constructs the model of passenger traffic volume and tourist network attention degree of Terracotta Warriors and Scenic Area, and digs out the relationship between users' attention to tourism and actual tourism demand, decision-making, to promote the sustainable development of tourism is of great significance [Huang, 0;Liu, 0]. 7

2 . ANALYSIS OF THE SELECTION OF ONLINE ATTENTION INDEX OF TRAVELLING TO TERRA-COTTA WARRIOR AND HORSES SCENIC AREA.. Selection of Research Time Seasonal changes directl affect tourists perception and eperience of the tourist destination. People often choose to travel to the tourist destination in the best season, thus leading to that the volume of tourists to a region changes according to different seasons. In summer, choose to travel to cool places, such as Harbin; in winter, tend to travel to those cities with moist and warm climate such as Hainan; Xi an is hot in summer that it is renowned as a stove cit, but in spring and autumn, the weather is pleasant, so there will correspondingl be more tourists. Leisure time is inseparable from tourism. Citizens leisure time is mainl divided into three categories: namel, dail leisure time, rest das and legal holidas. Dail leisure time is short. Generall, have to deal with dail affairs and rest and are less likel to travel. Weekends and legal holidas (for instance Ma Da Holida and National Da Holida) are relativel longer, so usuall choose to travel during this time, which results in that the tourism online attention during this time usuall fluctuates. Since the weather is pleasant in Xi an during spring and autumn, have more free time during the Golden Week of National Da Holida. In addition, Xi an is famous for tourism both in China and abroad. Considering them, this paper chooses to stud the online attention of Terra-Cotta Warriors and site during the Golden Week of National Da Holida... Selection of Network Kewords In the information technolog era, the Internet records billions of pieces of network information. Based on webpage and news searches, Baidu establishes Baidu Inde Search Platform to provide massive free analsis service. The data reflects the attention of each keword during a certain period of time, so this paper chooses Baidu Inde as the tool to acquire network big data [Ma, 0]. Input a certain keword in Baidu inde search column, select the search time period and region and click Baidu search to get the trend of attention to this keword within certain time period and in corresponding region. Click the mouse through the trend line, which can show the dail search of the keword in the region. For the tourism activit, man researches on relationship between tourists volume and search engine data have been conducted in the past decade. The results indicate that the search kewords, for instance, the name of scenic spots, tourist routes, ticket prices and other tourist destinations (scenic spots), are suitable to capture the tourist volume [Wang, 0]. This paper takes the "Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism" and "Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket" as the kewords to search the user's attention of Terra-cotta warriors and horses scenic spot from 0 to 06. The sstem collected from October st to October 7th, the dail attention of users, on this basis, the user attention can be added to the attention of the user during the Golden Week.. ANALYSIS OF USER'S ATTENTION IN TERRA-COTTA WARRIORS AND HORSES SCENIC SPOT Figure shows the kewords "Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism" network users attention from 0 to 06. It can be seen from Fig. that the overall level of the user's attention of "Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism" is about 0, and the user's attention is ver small. The maimum peak appeared in October nd, or in October rd with a certain lag. The main reason is that the Terra-cotta warriors and horses is located in Xi'an cit Lin tong District, search "Xi'an tourism" will have a detailed introduction to the Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism. When tourists come to Xi'an, the usuall go Xi'an cit's tourist attractions, then simple rest, the go relativel far from Xi'an scenic sightseeing. Fig. is the keword "Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket" user attention from 0 to 06. It can be seen from Fig. that the keword, Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket, the user's attention on the overall level is much higher comparing with that of the keword Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism. The reason can be eplained as the Terra-cotta warriors and horses scenic area as a world-famous tourist attractions, its familiarit in the minds of tourists has no need to get through the keword "Terra-cotta warriors and horses'' tourism, tourists tend to pa more attentions on the Terra-cotta warriors and horses scenic spot ticket price. It can be speculated that the visibilit of high scenic spots, tourists are often more concerned about the scenic spots, and whether to travel to the scenic spots usuall do not hesitate. Therefore, user attention of the keword "(scenic) tourism" is smaller. In addition, when the Baidu inde search kewords Terra-cotta warriors and horses' tourism Raiders, Baidu inde does not create the user's attention of this keword, which also confirms the aforementioned speculations. 7

Figure. 0-06 "Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism" Baidu inde The user attention of the keword "Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket" in 06 is the minimum.

With the approaching of the Golden Week, the user's attention in September showed a gradual increase in the trend, accompanied b a small amplitude oscillation. Similar to Fig.

3 Figure "Terra-cotta warriors and horses tourism" Baidu inde The user attention of the keword "Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket" in 06 is the minimum. The overall level of user attention in 0 is the largest. The rest of the ear is middle. With the approaching of the Golden Week, the user's attention in September showed a gradual increase in the trend, accompanied b a small amplitude oscillation. Similar to Fig., the user's attention reached a peak in October nd, followed b a sharp decline. At the end of the Golden Week holida, the overall level of user attention is tends to stabilit. Figure "Terra-cotta warriors and horses ticket" Baidu inde. REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF ACTUAL TOURISTS AND USERS' ATTENTION The Emperor Qin Shihuang Museum of Terra-cotta warriors and horses on the official website data show that in 0 Golden Week seven das, Terra-cotta warriors and horses scenic tourists 0 and 00. During the Golden Week in 0 the number of tourists to 99 and 900. During the Golden Week in 0 the number of tourists 7 and 00. During the Golden Week in 0 the number of tourists to 6 and 700 ; During the Golden Week in 06 the number of tourists 68 and 00 passengers. In this paper, the authors take the user's attention of "Terra-cotta warriors and horses' tourism" as an eample. The variables,,,, and,are the Golden Week user attention of keword Terra-cotta warriors and horses' tourism from 0 to 06. First of all, using the following equation to calculate the average of five ears of user attention, () 76

4 Using Eq. (), the annual user attention is normalized. The equation is as follows, () Similarl, from 0 to 06, the Terra-cotta warriors and horses scenic area reception during the Golden Week tourists are normalized. Assuming that,,, and represent the actual number of from 0 to 06 Golden Week. Using Eq. () to calculate the average value of tourists in the five ears, () Average value in Eq. () is used for regressive treatment of the actual number of in three ears, and the equation is shown as follows: () Conduct regressive analsis of users attention and actual number of to Terror-Cotta Warriors and during National Da Holidas, and the regression equation is as shown below: k b () Where k and b are regressive coefficients. Eq. () is one-order linear equation, and for comparative research, this paper also uses two-order equation in Eq. (6) for regression a b c (6) where a, b and c are regressive coefficients. There is a certain precursor effect between the user attention and the actual tourist number, that is to sa, the tourists will search the information of the scenic area before traveling. Therefore, this paper studies the quantitative relationship between user attention and actual tourist number in different das in advance. Table in the 0 das in advance of the user attention, the so-called 0 das in advance of the kewords "Terracotta Warriors and " and "Terracotta Warrior tickets," a week of attention from the sum of October to October 7. Table, one week in advance of the week, the sum of user attention from September 0 to October 6. Table in the das in advance of the week, the sum of user attention from September 9 to October. Table in the das in advance of a week user attention and the sum is from September 8 to October. Table is users attention and actual number of to Terra-cotta Warriors and during the National Da Holida. Average users attention to the keword Terra-Cotta Warriors and tourism is 98, and average users attention to the keword Terra Cotta Warriors and is 79. These two average values and Eq. () are used in regressive treatment. Similarl, regressive treatment is conducted to Table, Table and Table. Table.Users Attention and Actual Visitors in Terra-Cotta Warriors and Scenic Spot during National Da Holidas (0 da in advance) /ten

5 Table.Users Attention and Actual Visitors in Terra-Cotta Warriors and Scenic Spot during National Da Holidas ( da in advance) /ten Table.Users Attention and Actual Visitors in Terra-Cotta Warriors and Scenic Spot during National Da Holidas ( das in advance) /ten Table.Users Attention and Actual Visitors in Terra-Cotta Warriors and Scenic Spot during National Da Holidas ( das in advance) /ten

6 Table and Table 6 are regressive results of actual number of tourists with the kewords and. It can be seen from Table and 6 that, when using linear equation for the user's attention and the actual amount of tourists for regression analsis, the use of keword "Terra Cotta Warrior" of the user attention and the actual return of less deviation. In addition, when the user concerned about the number of das in advance of - das, the qualit of the regression analsis is better. Therefore, for Baidu inde based on the forecast of tourists, the suggested number of das in advance is - das of user interest data for prediction. The predicted values obtained will be more accurate. When the second-order polnomial is used to regress the user's attention and the actual tourists, the relationship between the user's attention and the actual tourist number of the "Terra-Cotta Warrior Tour" will be upward. The keword Terra Cotta Warrior Tickets, the user attention and the relationship between the actual number of tourists, the curve of the opening direction up. As for the intrinsic nature of this phenomenon, we will carr out in-depth stud in future. Table.Regressive Analsis of Keword Users Attention and Actual Tourists during the Golden Week of National Da Holidas Das in k b sse a b c sse advance Table 6.Regressive Analsis of Keword Users Attention and Actual Tourists during the Golden Week of National Da Holidas Das in k b sse a b c sse advance CONCLUSIONS This paper analzes users attention to Xi an Terra-cotta Warriors and Scenic Area in 0-06 and makes regression analsis of the correlation between users attention and actual number of, and the conclusion is as follows: ()Before the Golden Week of the National Da Holida, users dail attention shows an overall rising trend with local fluctuations. The ultimate peak of users dail attention appears on October or October, and later on, users dail attention declines sharpl till the end of the Golden Week of National Da Holidas. Later on, users dail attention is relativel stable. ()For a scenic spot, users attention to the keword (scenic spot) ticket is a ver important message which is featured with strong coupling with the actual number of. ()The results of regression analsis show that the linear equation can capture the relationship between user attention and actual tourists. The comparative analsis of the number of das in advance indicates that more accurate results will be obtained when the tourists are forecasted with - das in advance of user attention data, which also confirms the presence of aura effect between the user attention and the number of. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 79

7 The authors acknowledge the Scientific research project of Shaani Provincial Department of Education: The application and forecast of domestic tourism market demand in Shaani Province under the background of big data (Grant: 7JK076); Xi'an Social Science Planning Project: Research on the spatial structure of tourism resources and market forecast in Xi'an (Grant: 06EA). REFERENCES Huang X K,Zhang L F,Ding Y S. (07) The baidu inde: Uses in predicting tourism flows A case stud of the Forbidden Cit, Tourism management, 8, pp Huang Xiankai, Zhang Lifeng, Ding Yusi (0) Stud on the relationship between Baidu inde and tourist attractions, Tourism Tribune, 8(), pp Li X, Pan B, Law R, Huang X K. (07) Forecasting tourism demand with composite search inde, Tourism management, 9, pp Liu Zhusheng, Qin Fanga, Ge Beng,et al. (0) Stud on the forecast of dail tourists in Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area, Tourism Science,6(), pp Ma Lijun, Sun Gennian, Huang Yunma, et al. (0) Temporal and spatial correlation analsis of urban domestic traffic and tourists' attention, Economic Geograph, (), pp Song H, Li G. (008) Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-a review of recent research, Tourism Management, 9(), pp.0-0. Wang Shoucheng, Guo Fenghua, Fu Xueqing, Li Renjie(0) Stud on the landscape attention of tourism destination based on spontaneous geographic information taking Jiuzhaigou as an eample, Tourism Tribune, 9(), pp.8-9. Yang X, Pan B, Evans J A, Lv B F (0) Forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data, Tourism management, 6, pp

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