Travel and Tourism in Ukraine: Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016

Transcription

1 Travel and Tourism in Ukraine: Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016 Reference code: TT0037MR_SP Published: July Timetric John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents 1 Introduction What is this Report About? Definitions Methodology Executive Summary Tourism Demand Factors Typical Annual Employee Holiday Entitlement by Type Total Population by Age Male Population by Age Female Population by Age Number of Households Mean Household Income Number of Trips by Season Number of Trips by Residents Average Length of Tourism Trips Tourism Flows Analysis of Tourism Flows Total Domestic Trips Domestic Trips by Purpose of Visit Number of business trips by domestic tourists Number of leisure trips by domestic tourists Number of other personal trips by domestic tourists Number of overnight stays on domestic trips Total International Arrivals Number of International Arrivals by Region of Origin International arrivals by country of origin Africa International arrivals by country of origin Asia-Pacific International arrivals by country of origin Europe International arrivals by country of origin Middle East International arrivals by country of origin North America International arrivals by country of origin South and Central America International arrivals by purpose of visit Inbound business tourist volume trend Inbound leisure tourist volume trend Inbound other tourist volume trend Total International Departures Number of international departures by destination International departures to Africa This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS International departures to Europe International departures to North America International departures by purpose of visit Outbound business tourist volume trend Outbound leisure tourist volume trend Outbound other tourist volume trend Number of overnight stays on international trips Appendix Contact Us About Timetric Disclaimer This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures Figure 1: Ukraine Typical Holiday Entitlement of Employees per Annum, Figure 2: Ukraine Total Population by Age (%), Figure 3: Ukraine Total Population by Age (%), Figure 4: Ukraine Male Population by Age (%), Figure 5: Ukraine Male Population by Age (%), Figure 6: Ukraine Female Population by Age (%), Figure 7: Ukraine Female Population by Age (%), Figure 8: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), Figure 9: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), Figure 10: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), Figure 11: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), Figure 12: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (%), Figure 13: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (%), Figure 14: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Figure 15: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Figure 16: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Figure 17: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Figure 18: Ukraine Total Domestic Trips (Million), Figure 19: Ukraine Total Domestic Trips (Million), Figure 20: Ukraine Domestic Trips by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 21: Ukraine Domestic Trips by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 22: Ukraine Domestic Business Trips (Million), Figure 23: Ukraine Domestic Business Trips (Million), Figure 24: Ukraine Domestic Leisure Trips (Million), Figure 25: Ukraine Domestic Leisure Trips (Million), Figure 26: Ukraine Other Personal Domestic Tourist Trips (Million), Figure 27: Ukraine Other Personal Domestic Tourist Trips (Million), Figure 28: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays on Domestic Trips (Million), Figure 29: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays on Domestic Trips (Million), Figure 30: Ukraine Total International Arrivals (Million), Figure 31: Ukraine Total International Arrivals (Million), Figure 32: Ukraine Number of International Arrivals by Region of Origin (%), 2011 and Figure 33: Ukraine International Arrivals by Leading Five Countries of Origin Africa (%), Figure 34: Ukraine International Arrivals by Leading Five Countries of Origin Asia-Pacific (%), Figure 35: Ukraine International Arrivals by Leading Five Countries of Origin Europe (%), Figure 36: Ukraine International Arrivals by Leading Four Countries of Origin Middle East (%), Figure 37: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin North America (%), Figure 38: Ukraine International Arrivals by Leading Five Countries of Origin South and Central America (%), Figure 39: Ukraine International Arrivals by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 40: Ukraine International Arrivals by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 41: Ukraine Inbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 42: Ukraine Inbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 43: Ukraine Inbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 44: Ukraine Inbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 45: Ukraine Inbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 46: Ukraine Inbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 47: Ukraine Total International Departures (Million), Figure 48: Ukraine Total International Departures (Million), Figure 49: Ukraine Number of International Departures by Destination (%), Figure 50: Ukraine International Departures Africa (%), Figure 51: Ukraine International Departures to Leading Five European Countries (%), Figure 52: Ukraine International Departures North America (%), Figure 53: Ukraine International Departures by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 54: Ukraine International Departures by Purpose of Visit (%), Figure 55: Ukraine Outbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 56: Ukraine Outbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 57: Ukraine Outbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 58: Ukraine Outbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 59: Ukraine Outbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 60: Ukraine Outbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Figure 61: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays (Million), Figure 62: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays (Million), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 4

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables Table 1: Travel and Tourism Industry Definitions... 6 Table 2: Ukraine Typical Holiday Entitlement of Employees per Annum, Table 3: Ukraine Total Population by Age (Million), Table 4: Ukraine Total Population by Age (Million), Table 5: Ukraine Male Population by Age (Million), Table 6: Ukraine Male Population by Age (Million), Table 7: Ukraine Female Population by Age (Million), Table 8: Ukraine Female Population by Age (Million), Table 9: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), Table 10: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), Table 11: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), Table 12: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), Table 13: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (Million), Table 14: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (Million), Table 15: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Table 16: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Table 17: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Table 18: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Table 19: Ukraine Total Domestic Trips (Million), Table 20: Ukraine Total Domestic Trips (Million), Table 21: Ukraine Domestic Trips by Purpose of Visit (Million), Table 22: Ukraine Domestic Trips by Purpose of Visit (Million), Table 23: Ukraine Domestic Business Trips (Million), Table 24: Ukraine Domestic Business Trips (Million), Table 25: Ukraine Domestic Leisure Trips (Million), Table 26: Ukraine Domestic Leisure Trips (Million), Table 27: Ukraine Other Personal Domestic Tourist Trips (Million), Table 28: Ukraine Other Personal Domestic Tourist Trips (Million), Table 29: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays on Domestic Trips (Million), Table 30: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays on Domestic Trips (Million), Table 31: Ukraine Total International Arrivals (Million), Table 32: Ukraine Total International Arrivals (Million), Table 33: Ukraine Number of International Arrivals by Region of Origin (Thousand), Table 34: Ukraine Number of International Arrivals by Region of Origin (Thousand), Table 35: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin Africa (Thousand), Table 36: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin Asia-Pacific (Thousand), Table 37: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin Europe (Thousand), Table 38: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin Middle East (Thousand), Table 39: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin North America (Thousand), Table 40: Ukraine International Arrivals by Country of Origin South and Central America (Thousand), Table 41: Ukraine International Arrivals by Purpose of Visit (Thousand), Table 42: Ukraine International Arrivals by Purpose of Visit (Thousand), Table 43: Ukraine Inbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 44: Ukraine Inbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 45: Ukraine Inbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Table 46: Ukraine Inbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Table 47: Ukraine Inbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 48: Ukraine Inbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 49: Ukraine Total International Departures (Million), Table 50: Ukraine Total International Departures (Million), Table 51: Ukraine Number of International Departures by Destination (Thousand), Table 52: Ukraine Number of International Departures by Destination (Thousand), Table 53: Ukraine International Departures Africa (Thousand), Table 54: Ukraine International Departures Europe (Thousand), Table 55: Ukraine International Departures North America (Thousand), Table 56: Ukraine International Departures by Purpose of Visit (Million), Table 57: Ukraine International Departures by Purpose of Visit (Million), Table 58: Ukraine Outbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 59: Ukraine Outbound Business Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 60: Ukraine Outbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Table 61: Ukraine Outbound Leisure Tourist Volume (Million), Table 62: Ukraine Outbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 63: Ukraine Outbound Other Tourist Volume (Thousand), Table 64: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays (Million), Table 65: Ukraine Number of Overnight Stays (Million), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 5

6 INTRODUCTION 1 Introduction 1.1 What is this Report About? This report is the result of extensive research on travel and tourism in Ukraine, covering the demand factors that influence tourism as well as analysis of the tourism flows within the country. It provides insights on the market size and forecast for travel and tourism in Ukraine. 1.2 Definitions For the purposes of this report, the following timeframes apply: Review period: Forecast period: Base Year: 2011 Note: the CAGRs calculated for the forecast period include the base year of All values in tables, with the exception of compound annual growth rates (CAGRs), are displayed to one decimal place, although smaller numbers may be displayed to two decimal places for clarity. Growth rates may, as a result, appear inconsistent with absolute values due to this rounding method. The key market categories featured in the report are defined below: Table 1: Travel and Tourism Industry Definitions Term Tourism demand factors Annual employee holiday entitlement Domestic trip International trip Trips taken by season Number of trips by residents Average length of trip Tourism flow factors Number of overnight stays International arrivals Leisure trips Definition Factors which influence the time and money spent on tourism. Typical tourism demand factors include the amount of holiday leave available to the average employee in the country, and mean household income. The number of days the average resident of a country will accrue annually through entitled holidays, including annual leave and public holidays. Public holidays are statutory holidays to which a country s residents are entitled. A trip taken to a destination within the traveler s country of residence. A trip taken to a destination outside the traveler s country of residence. The number of trips undertaken by the residents of a country (both domestic and international), segmented by four quarters: January March, April June, July September and October December. The number of trips undertaken by the residents of a country, segmented by domestic and international trips. The average number of nights spent by the residents of a country, segmented by domestic and international trips. Factors which influence the flow of tourists from one location to another. The total number of nights spent by the residents of a country on all tourism trips during a given year. The number of foreign nationals entering a country. For example, a person from Canada who visits France would be an international arrival to France. Trips for holidaying, recreation, or visits to friends and relatives This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 6

7 INTRODUCTION Table 1: Travel and Tourism Industry Definitions Term Business trips Other trips International departures Definition Trips involving business as the primary purpose. It includes trips for meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (MICE) purposes, events and conferences. Trips for purposes other than leisure or business, such as education, sports or pilgrimage. The total number of citizens leaving their home country and arriving in other countries. This will be higher than the total number of citizens leaving their home country, as a traveler might travel in more than one country after leaving their home country. This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 7

8 INTRODUCTION 1.3 Methodology All travel and tourism reports are created by following a comprehensive, four-stage methodology. This includes market study, research, analysis and quality control. 1) Market Study A. Standardization Definitions are specified using recognized industry classifications. The same definition is used for every country. Annual average currency exchange rates are used for the latest completed year. These are then applied across both the historical and forecast data to remove exchange rate fluctuations. B. Internal audit Review of in-house databases to gather existing data: Historic market databases and reports Company database C. Trend monitoring Review of the latest travel and tourism companies and industry trends 2) Research A. Sources Collection of the latest market-specific data from a wide variety of industry sources: Government statistics Industry associations Company filings International organizations Travel and tourism agencies B. Expert opinion Collation of opinion taken from leading travel and tourism industry experts Analysis of third-party opinion and forecasts: Broker reports Media Official government sources C. Data consolidation and verification Consolidation of data and opinion to create historical datasets Creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and geographies This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 8

9 INTRODUCTION 3) Analysis A. Market forecasts Feeding forecast data into market models: Macroeconomic indicators Industry-specific drivers Analysis of travel and tourism industry database to identify trends: Latest travel and tourism trends Key drivers of the travel and tourism industry B. Report Writing 4) Quality Control A. Templates Analysis of market data Discussion of company and industry trends and issues Review of financial deals and travel and tourism trends Detailed process manuals Standardized report templates and accompanying style guides Complex forecasting tool used to ensure forecast methodologies are consistently applied Quality control checklists B. Quality Control process Peer review Senior-level QC Random spot checks on data integrity Benchmark checks across databases Market data cross-checked for consistency with accumulated data from: Company filings Government sources This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 9

10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 Executive Summary Ukraine welcomed over 21.9 million tourists in 2011, and Crimea and Kiev remain major tourist destinations in the country, attracting about 60% of tourists. Ukraine ranked 12th in the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer in terms of international tourist arrivals by country of destination in Domestic and outbound trips decreased from 19.5 million in 2007 to 18.6 in 2011, registering a CAGR of -1.18%. However, as Ukraine co-hosted the 2012 UEFA European football championship with Poland, the government is keen to use this opportunity to develop the country s tourism sector. The Ukrainian government s initiatives to promote the tourism industry in the country are also expected to drive the sector, both in terms of volume and value. This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 10

11 UKRAINE TOURISM DEMAND FACTORS 3 Tourism Demand Factors The Ukrainian government recognizes XX public holidays: New Year's Day, Good Friday, International Women s Day, Easter, Labour Day, Victory Day, Orthodox Pentecost, Independence Day, Constitution Day and Christmas Day. Employees in the country are typically entitled to XX paid holidays. Generally, both domestic and inbound travel volumes increased during the second and third quarters of the year, especially during the summer season when most residents take a break to visit relatives and friends. Visitors tend to prefer outdoor activities during this season. Crimea, the Carpathian mountains, the Black Sea coast, Odessa and Yalta are the most preferred destinations, particularly for domestic visitors. The third quarter is the peak season for tourist visits in Ukraine, accounting for about XX% of total visits in a year. A total of X.X million tourist visits, which include both domestic and inbound tourists, were recorded in This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 11

12 3.1 Typical Annual Employee Holiday Entitlement by Type During the review period, Ukrainian employees were typically entitled to a total of XX holidays per annum, of which XX days were paid and XX were public holidays. Table 2: Ukraine Typical Holiday Entitlement of Employees per Annum, Holiday Entitlement of Employees Paid holidays Public holidays Figure 1: Ukraine Typical Holiday Entitlement of Employees per Annum, This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 12

13 3.2 Total Population by Age During the review period, Ukraine s total population decreased from XX.X million in 2007 to XX.X million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX%. The years age group accounted for the largest share, with XX.X% of the total population in 2011, followed by the 65+ years age group with XX.X%, and the years age group with XX.X%. Table 3: Ukraine Total Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 2: Ukraine Total Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 13

14 Over the forecast period, Ukraine s total population is expected to decrease from XX.X million in 2011 to XX.X million in 2016, with a projected CAGR of X.XX%. In 2016, the 65+ years age group is expected to account for the largest share, with XX.X% of the total population, followed by the years and years age groups, each with XX.X% shares. Table 4: Ukraine Total Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 3: Ukraine Total Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 14

15 3.3 Male Population by Age During the review period, Ukraine s male population decreased from XX.XX million in 2007 to XX.XX million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX%. The years age group accounted for the largest share, with XX.X% of the total in 2011, followed by the 0 14 years age group with XX.X%. Table 5: Ukraine Male Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 4: Ukraine Male Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 15

16 The total Ukrainian male population is expected to decrease marginally from XX.XX million in 2011 to XX.XX million in 2016, recording a projected CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period. In 2016, the years age group is expected to continue to account for the largest share, with XX.X%, followed by the years age group with XX.X% and the 0 14 years age group with XX.X%. Table 6: Ukraine Male Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 5: Ukraine Male Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 16

17 3.4 Female Population by Age During the review period, Ukraine s total female population decreased from XX.XX million in 2007 to XX.XX million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX%. The 65+ years age group accounted for the highest proportion of this total in 2011, with a XX.X% share, followed by the age group with XX.X%. Table 7: Ukraine Female Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 6: Ukraine Female Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 17

18 Ukraine s total female population is expected to decrease from XX.XX million in 2011 to XX.XX million in 2016, with a projected forecast-period CAGR of X.XX%. The 65+ years age group is expected to account for the highest share of this group, with a XX.X% share, followed by the years age group with XX.X%. Table 8: Ukraine Female Population by Age (Million), Age CAGR Total and US Census Bureaus Figure 7: Ukraine Female Population by Age (%), and US Census Bureaus This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 18

19 3.5 Number of Households During the review period, the number of Ukrainian households rose in line with the country s population growth, from XX.X million in 2007 to XX.X million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX%. Table 9: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), CAGR Number of households and State Statistics Service of Ukraine Figure 8: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), and State Statistics Service of Ukraine This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 19

20 The total number of Ukrainian households is expected to record a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period, to reach XX.X million households in Table 10: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), CAGR Number of households Figure 9: Ukraine Number of Households (Million), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 20

21 3.6 Mean Household Income Ukraine s mean household income decreased from US$XX in 2007 to US$XX in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. Table 11: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), CAGR Mean household income Figure 10: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 21

22 Over the forecast period, Ukraine s mean household income is expected to increase from US$XX in 2011 to US$XX in 2016, and record a projected CAGR of X.XX%. Table 12: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), CAGR Number of households Figure 11: Ukraine Mean Household Income (US$), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 22

23 3.7 Number of Trips by Season During the review period, the total number of domestic and international trips by Ukrainian residents was at its highest level during the July September season, which accounted for XX.X% of Ukraine s overall domestic and international trips in It was followed by the April June season, which accounted for a XX.X% share after recording a CAGR of X.XX%. The January March season registered the lowest CAGR for domestic and outbound trips of X.XX% during the review period. Table 13: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (Million), Season CAGR January March April June July September October December Total Figure 12: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (%), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 23

24 The July September season is expected to account for the highest share, with XX.X% in 2016, and record a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period. The April June season is expected to account for the second-largest share with XX.X%, while the January March season is expected to account for XX.X%. Table 14: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (Million), Season CAGR January March April June July September October December Total Figure 13: Ukraine Number of Trips by Season (%), This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 24

25 3.8 Number of Trips by Residents During the review period, the number of domestic trips by Ukrainian residents decreased from XX.X million in 2007 to XX.X million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX%. The total number of international trips by Ukrainian residents increased marginally from XX.X million in 2007 to XX.X million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. Table 15: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Type of Trip CAGR Domestic trips International trips Total and State Statistics Service of Ukraine Figure 14: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), and State Statistics Service of Ukraine This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 25

26 The number of domestic trips by Ukrainian residents is expected to increase marginally from X.X million in 2011 to X.X million in 2016, recording a projected forecast-period CAGR of X.XX%. The number of international departures by Ukrainian residents is expected to increase from XX.X million in 2011 to XX.X million in 2016, with a projected forecast-period CAGR of X.XX%. This growth is expected to be primarily driven by Ukraine s stable economic performance, increasing employment and consumer confidence levels, and improving access to travel services. Table 16: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), Type of Trip CAGR Domestic trips International trips Total and State Statistics Service of Ukraine Figure 15: Ukraine Number of Trips by Residents (Million), and State Statistics Service of Ukraine This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 26

27 3.9 Average Length of Tourism Trips Average length of trip is defined as the average number of nights spent on a particular visit by a tourist. For domestic Ukrainian travelers, this number marginally increased from X.X nights in 2007 to X.X nights in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. The average length of trip for outbound travel rose from X.X nights in 2007 to X.X nights in 2011, representing a review-period CAGR of X.XX%. Table 17: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Type of Trip CAGR Domestic trips International trips Figure 16: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 27

28 Over the forecast period, the average length of trip for domestic Ukrainian tourists is expected to increase from X.X nights in 2011 to X.X nights in 2016, with a projected CAGR of X.XX%. The average length of trip for domestic Ukrainian tourists is anticipated to reach X.X nights in 2013, X.X nights in 2014 and X.X nights in The average length of outbound trips is expected to increase from X.X nights in 2011 to XX nights in 2016, recording a projected forecast-period CAGR of X.XX%. Table 18: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, Type of Trip CAGR Domestic trips International trips Figure 17: Ukraine Average Length of Tourism Trip, This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied Page 28