CRETE PROPERTY MARKET. 2 nd Semester 2015

Transcription

1 1 CRETE PROPERTY MARKET 2 nd Semester 2015

2 2 Table of Contents 1. Economic Overview Office Market Residential Market Retail Market Logistics & Industrial Market Tourism... 20

3 3 1. Economic Overview 2015 was crucial for Greek economy due to the political uncertainty, the introduction of the emergency bank holiday and capital controls and the slow progress of negotiations with its international creditors. However, according to the winter economic forecast of the European Commission, Greek economy proved quite resilient due to the successful recapitalization of banks, the steady implementation of structural reforms under the new ESM programme, the progress with privatization and the higher than expected private consumption. As a result, recession in 2015 now appears to have been less severe than expected based on the autumn economic forecast. According to the above-mentioned economic forecast, private consumption was higher than expected, since households preferred to spend their bank deposits for fear of a potential haircut. However, add-on tax burden for employees, retirees, freelances and businesses is expected to weigh on disposable income and private consumption during the H1 of The tourism sector showed remarkable progress during 2015 and 2016 is expected to be a new record year, while imports are projected to continue declining faster than exports, contributing positively to growth. Business confidence, reflected in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and the Purchasing Managers Index, has also recovered relatively quickly from the sharp falls in July and August,, while economic sentiment stabilized in October and improved further in December. Now, Greek economy is expected to start recovering in the H2 of 2016 under specific circumstances however, according to the predictions of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Commission and the Bank of Greece; indeed, growth is totally subject to the successful implementation of reforms imposed by the bailout program. The Bank of Greece also predicts that economic activity could recover only subject to political stability, the banking NPL crisis being resolved, reforms in the market of goods and services being rapidly implemented, the labour market gradually recovering, the primary surplus remaining stable and actions being taken in order to increase the competiveness of the public sector. Based on the latest data published by the Hellenic Statistical Authority on February 2016, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during Q3 of 2015 slipped by 1.4% relative to Q2 of the same year and by 1.9% relative to Q3 of 2014, while during Q4 of 2015 it slipped by 0.6% relative to Q3 of the same year and by 1.9% relative to Q4 of Output is expected to slow down even further in 2016, as uncertainty related to the reform program and deteriorating liquidity conditions have undermined business confidence and investment; on the upside, GDP growth is anticipated to pick up substantially in 2017.

4 4 More specifically, based on the winter economic forecast of the European Commission, Greek economy grew by 0.0% in 2015 relative to the spring forecast of 0.5%, while the headline balance (as % of GDP) in 2016 and 2017 is forecast to remain negative at the level of -3.4% and -2.1% respectively, relative to the spring forecast of -2.1% and -2.2% respectively. GREEK ECONOMY EC s WINTER FORECAST ECONOMIC INDICES GDP growth (%, yoy) 0,7 0,0-0,7 2,7 Inflation (%, yoy) -1,4-1,1 0,5 0,8 Unemployment (%) 26,5 25,1 24,0 22,8 General Government Balance (% of GDP) -3,6-7,6-3,4-2,1 Gross Debt (% of GDP) 178,6 179,0 185,0 181,8 Source: ec.europa.eu GREEK ECONOMY OECD s FORECAST ECONOMIC INDICES GDP growth (%, yoy) 0,7-1,4-1,2 2,1 Inflation (%, yoy) -2,8-0,9 0,7 0,5 Unemployment (%) 26,5 25,2 24,8 23,4 General Government Balance (% of GDP) -3,6-4,3-7,7-1,5 Gross Debt (% of GDP) 181,3 190,0 200,0 197,4 Source:

5 5 2. Office Market Office market in Crete remained almost stable during H2 of 2015, while relative to 2014, market and rental values were decreased up to 5-10%. Despite the fact that asking prices are nowadays at quite low levels, asking prices are still negotiable and can be decreased up to 10-15%. Prime yields have seen a slight compression during H2 of 2015, since the effects of the capital controls are not as severe as originally predicted and investors have been actively looking for opportunities. In Chania, rental values around the Court Square are higher relatively to the city center, due to the privileged location of the square, which is close to the building of the Regional Union of Chania and the Court House, while the higher market values can be found at the city center (Skalidi & Giannari Streets, 1866 Square). Trianon Center in Court Area, Chania In Heraklion, the vast majority of office spaces are congregated around the city center (Zografou St, Daidalou St, Dimokratias St, Dikaiosinis St, 25 th August St, Evans St, Kalokairinou St, Averof St, Liontaria Square), where freelances and businesses are highly interested due to the proximity to public services. On the other hand, there is no interest for offices spaces outside the city center and in low commercial streets. In Rethymnon, the main office market is around the CBD, the Old City and Iroon Polytechniou Square, close to the main retail market and public services buildings, while relatively new office spaces can be found at the main streets that lead to the CBD, i.e. Igoumenou Gavriil Avenue (west entrance) and Portaliou Avenue (east entrance). Finally, in Lasithi, due to the small size of the cities of Agios Nikolaos, Ierapetra and Sitia, office spaces are congregated only in the center of the cities.

6 6 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

7 7 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

8 8 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd * Leases and prices depend on the age, the condition and the location of the buildings.

9 9 3. Residential Market After the announcement of the national elections in January 2015, there was an increase in the demand for small apartments mainly, since many people decided to withdraw their deposits and invest them in old and economical apartments. The recent activity in the real estate market showed that residences turned into a safe investment for many people with anxiety and economic insecurity. However, this small activity did not manage to reverse the negative climate in real estate market and was sharply interrupted by the introduction of capital controls, while the main reasons that the market hasn t picked up yet are the lack of new bank loans and no recovery of the mortgage market. The residential market is still a deep sleeper with minimum transactions. During 2015, prices continued decreasing slightly in most areas, with only a few prime areas showing signs of stability. There was a pickup in rental activity with high demand for medium size and good quality homes for rent, that mainly arise from people that try to take advantage of the low prices. It is worth mentioning that asking prices have decreased up to 5% in comparison with 2014, while negotiations usually result in a price cut over 10-15%. As for the holiday residence sector, many investment opportunities can be found, due to the significant price decreases during the past years. Almost 5,000 holiday residences in Crete are for sale, a number that remained almost stable during the last five years, since construction activity has stopped and investing interest still remains at low levels. At the same time, market values have decreased up to 40% and sometimes even more relative to the period before crisis. In general, it is believed that residential market has bottomed out during H2 of 2015 and has the potential to enter into a recovery path as long as the economy stabilizes, helping to reinforce the recovery of the economy as a whole from In Chania, around CBD, the vast majority of residences are at least year old and the price range is from /sqm, depending on the exact location, age and level of maintenance, while new structures prices vary from /sqm. The prices regarding new conventional structures in popular residential areas near the CBD vary from /sqm in Chalepa, from /sqm in Lentariana & Aberia and from /sqm in Nea Chora. As for rental prices, they remained almost stable relative to In Heraklion, around CBD, the vast majority of residences are at least 25 years old, whose price range is from /sqm, depending on the level of maintenance and the parking availability. The price range for new residences in popular areas near the

10 10 CBD, such as Analispi, Mastampas and Therissos, is from /sqm. The same price range stands also in the suburb of Agios Ioannis. Regarding the rest suburbs (Deilina, Koroni Magara, Mesampelies, Pateles, Poros, Katsampas and Mpenntevi), the price range is from /sqm. As for rental prices, they remained almost stable relative to 2014 and vary from 4 6 /sqm, with the upper levels representing residences in the CBD or popular suburbs, such as Agios Ioannis. In Rethymnon, the vast majority of residences in the Old City are old structures whose price range is from /sqm, mainly depending on the level of maintenance. The price range for new conventional residences in areas near CBD, such as Kallithea, Mastampas and Koumpes, is from /sqm, depending on the characteristics of the property, such as location, floor level, view and size. As for rental prices, they remained almost stable relative to H and 2014, with a reduction of almost 10% since New Apartment Complexes in Heraklion and Rethymno Finally, in Lasithi, the highest market values can be found at the coastal zone as well as the new suburbs of Agios Nikolaos, Ierapetra and Sitia, due to the most recent structures that can be found there, while market values at the old sections of the cities are slightly smaller. Rental prices remained almost stable relative to 2014.

11 11 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

12 12 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

13 13 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

14 14 4. Retail Market The most severely hit of the real estate market due to the economic crisis, is the retail sector. During H2 of 2015, there was some increasing activity, with the prime markets showing strong interest from retailers; as a result, prices have been stabilized, vacancy has dropped and absorption has increased. Prime yields have seen a slight compression during 2015, since the effects of the capital controls are not as severe as firstly predicted and investors have been actively looking for opportunities. In most cases, market values are equal to forced liquidation values, due to the high levels of supply and the urgency of owners to redeem their assets. Negotiations continue to be very intense and usually result in a price cut up to 15-20% in most cases. Another main characteristic of the retail market is the ever larger price gap between commercial and non-commercial roads, due to the higher demand for retail stores in prime markets. During H2 of 2015, rental renegotiations have been depleted, while many local retailers have moved to nearby properties, perhaps in better location and surely with comparably better rental price. This trend was also mentioned for 2014 and still happens, since business owners have the opportunity to decrease their fixed expenditure and move simultaneously either to better shopping streets or to more spacious retail properties. According to our recent research of the retail market in Crete, there are some main streets around CBD and towards the suburbs of the cities that used to be of high commercial importance, but due to the extended economic recession, we can nowadays typify them as streets with steady or low commercial interest. This happened because many businesses have seized their operation and many retail properties have been empty for a long period. Despite the historical low prices in the major retail streets, only a few big retail brands took advantage during The Swedish multinational retail-clothing company H&M opened its first store in Chania during March. It is a three-storey store with an area of approximately sqm, which stands at Tzanakaki Street, one of the most commercial roads in Chania. Also, the company plans to open during 2016 a store in Heraklion and has already rent a neoclassical building at August 25 th Street. In Chania, the most commercial area is the Old Port, where rental values vary from /sqm and from /sqm at Koum Kapi, while the most commercial roads are Chalidon, Chatzimichali Giannari and Skalidi Streets (main area of retail market), where rental values vary from /sqm. The new H&M store at Tzanakaki Street and the pedestrianisation of Potie area have led to higher rental values and increased absorption.

15 15 In Heraklion, there is a high interest for retail stores within the old walls and especially the CBD. The most commercial areas are Daidalou Street, 1821 Street and Liontaria Square, where rental values vary from /sqm. Shopping Center Olea in Platanias Shopping Center Talos Plaza in Heraklion In Rethymnon, within the Old Town, rental values vary from /sqm in Arkadiou Street ( prices at the north part) and from /sqm in secondary streets (Gerakari, Ethnikis Antistaseos), while in the coastal zone, values vary from /sqm at El. Benizelou Street and from /sqm in Sof. Benizelou Street. Finally, in Lasithi (Agios Nikolaos, Ierapetra and Sitia), commercial activity is found only in the cities center and the coastal zones. The relatively small offer of retail stores has led to very high market and rental values in some cases.

16 16 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

17 17 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

18 18 Source: Danos Melakis Ltd

19 19 5. Logistics & Industrial Market In Crete, no interest is observed in logistics and industrial market; therefore market has remained stable during H Large storage units can be mainly found in Heraklion and Chania, due to the presence of industrial parks, airports and large commercial ports in the two cities. Rental values vary from 2-4 /sqm in Heraklion and from /sqm in Chania. As for the regional units of Rethymnon and Lasithi, there is no formed real estate market in this sector, since the few large storage units are constructed upon request and based on the customer s needs.

20 20 6. Tourism Tourism is one of the few sectors of the Greek national economy that is competitive at a global level. Despite the lingering economic challenges and the slow down due to the major developments, tourism sector showed remarkable strength and 2015 was a record year. The unique geographical characteristics, in combination with the highly developed and still fast developing transportation infrastructure, the development and modernization of more specific tourist facilities, are expected to contribute to the development of Greece as a major tourist destination in Europe and as an international transportation hub of European proportions. According to the recent data published by the Association of Greek Tourist Enterprises (SETE), 2015 closed with 26 million tourist arrivals (the forecast for 2016 is 28 million) and 14.5 billion euros tourist receipts (24.5 million and 14.3 billion respectively in 2014). The increase is due to the larger number of German tourists that visited Greece and especially Crete, since the big German tour operators increased their special offers and TUI provided 10% more air seats for Greece relative to Large increase showed also the Polish tourists, since from 600,000 in 2014, they reached the number of 900,000 in 2015, while the prediction for 2016 is 1.5 million. A large boost to the Greek tourism can give the recent developments in Turkey (terrorist attacks, Russian embargo) and Egypt. According to international press agency Reuters, TUI has almost 40% less bookings for Turkey relative to 2015, with the biggest percentage concerning Russian tourists (3.9 million in 2015) that already search for new destinations in the Mediterranean. In order to attract as many Russian tourists as possible, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already driven the necessary legislative adjustments concerning the issuing of visas. Airports - Arrivals Based on the data given so far, during 2016, a large number of tourists are expected to arrive at the airports of Heraklion and Chania, giving a boost to the tourist sector in Crete. Also, the new terminal building of Sitia s municipal airport is expected to upgrade the city s role as an entrance gate to East Crete. However, high concern and big reactions from the local authorities has raised the agreement for the 40-year concession to Fraport- Copelouzos Consortium of 14 regional airports, with Chania airport being amongst them. In 2015, after 30 years and namely at the end of April, a British Airways flight landed at the airport of Heraklion after taking off from Gatwick airport in London. The airline had four flights to Heraklion per week during the touristic period and an extra flight during

21 21 July and August. Furthermore, the German airline Lufthansa has begun after 20 years its flights from Munich to Heraklion. Finally, the low-cost airline Ryanair has significantly increased the number of domestic and international flights to Chania, the airline TUIfly has added three new flights from Stuttgart, Dusseldorf and Hannover to Chania and one from Vienna to Heraklion, while the Swedish airline Finnair has added to its weekly program two flights from Helsinki to Heraklion and six flights from Helsinki to Chania. Based on the recent data given by the Association of Greek Tourist Enterprises (SETE), international arrivals between January and November 2015 numbered 2,559,805 at the airport of Heraklion (-1.4% relative to 2014) and 940,910 at the airport of Chania (+0.7% relative to 2014), while there is an increase of +5.7% relative to 2014 for Greek airports as a whole. The slight increase regarding Chania airport is due to the significant increase of the arrivals from Athens and Thessaloniki, while internationals arrivals remained at the record levels of last year. According to OAG Schedules Analyser, during August 2015, Chania airport was at the 1 st place and Heraklion airport at the 7 th place in whole Europe, in respect of the airports with the highest increase in the number of flight arrivals relative to August The constantly increasing number of flights landing at Chania has made the completion of the airport s expansion even more imperative, a project that was initially planned to be delivered by the end of Ports - Arrivals Greece is the 3 rd most popular European tourist destination in terms of cruise, following Spain and Italy. Based on the data given by the Hellenic Ports Association, during 2015, 4,281 cruise ships dropped anchor at Greek ports relative to 3,826 in 2014 (+12%), while the number of passengers remained at the same levels with 2014 (almost 5 million). A positive balance is also expected for 2016, despite the significant problems in the area of Eastern Mediterranean because of the armed conflicts, the terrorist attacks and the large migrant crisis. Based on the official arrival schedules, in 2016, less cruise ships (4,044) will drop anchor at Greek ports, but carrying more passengers (5.2 million). As for Heraklion port, in 2015, cruise ship arrivals increased by 6% relative to 2014, despite the competition from other countries in the region, as well as the decision of some important cruise operators to withdraw from the Mediterranean Sea, due to geopolitical developments. Based on the official data given by Heraklion Port Authority, 170 cruise ships with 219,805 passengers visited Heraklion port (160 and 242,951 respectively in 2014), with October being the peak month. The significant increase of cruise arrivals has lead to the decision of constructing a cruise terminal at the national airport of Heraklion.

22 22 New Cruise Terminal in Kazantzakis Airport, Heraklion As for Souda Port, in 2015, cruise tourist arrivals almost tripled relative to 2014, as a result of the local authorities intense efforts to attract more luxurious cruise ships with passengers of a higher level of income. It is worth mentioning that some of the leading cruise companies worldwide, such as MSC Cruises, Crystal Cruises, Costa Cruises, Princess Cruises and Aida Cruises, decided to include Souda Port in their calendars for the first time in Cruise arrivals reached the number of 59, with 96,612 passengers, while October was the peak month with 16 arrivals. The scheduled cruise arrivals for 2016 reach the number of 76 so far, while 20 more are expected. Investments There is strong interest from private equity funds and investors and international firms along with world calibre operators to expand in the Greek market, enhance infrastructure and attract more tourists, mainly of a higher level of income. There is strong demand for large and medium size hotels, large land plots by the sea and small private islands. As for Crete, there is strong interest for large seaside plots mainly in Eastern Crete, as well as for small boutique hotels in the Venetian Port of Chania. The ITANOS GAIA investment of 250 mn by the British company Loyalward Ltd, affiliate of Minoan Group Plc, intends to develop a large seaside plot in Cavo Sidero, Lasithi. Based on the initial concept of the project, the hotel complex which will consist of five hotels with beds, a golf court and other sport facilities, will be mainly intended for luxury tourists. The hotel complex was expected to operate in 2017, creating approximately job vacancies and arising noticeably the touristic profile of Crete; however, the investment has not started yet due to the big reactions from the locals.

23 23 In addition, DCI s (Dolphin Capital Investors) investment portfolio includes three major projects in Sitia, Plaka and Triopetra. DCI has already reached an agreement for the construction at Sitia, eastern Crete, of a Waldorf Astoria hotel, which constitutes the highest quality hotel chain of the group of Hilton Hotels and Resorts. The complex will be situated on a land plot of 280 hectares with 2.5km of seafront and consists of over 80,000m2 of buildable residential units, a 200 room luxury hotel, a convention centre, an 18-hole golf course and clubhouse, a 32 berth marina, a beach & country club and other leisure facilities. The Plaka Bay Resort in Lasithi will be developed on a land plot of 440 hectares with 7km of seafront and consists of a residential development of over 100,000m2 buildable area, one or more five-star hotels, other supporting recreational facilities and potentially an 18-hole golf course. Finally, the Triopetra project in south Rethymno will be developed on a seafront plot of more than 11 hectares and will consist of a 63 room luxury hotel with 2,500m2 public areas and a 600m2 spa and fitness club, as well as 82 residential units with a total 8,870m2 buildable area. Sitia Bay Golf Resort, Sitia, Lasithi In the middle of 2015, a large investment was made by Marriott International in the area of Elounda, since the award-winning five-star hotel Domes of Elounda of Ledra Hotels & Villas, was numbered among the catalogue of Autograph Collection Hotels. The hotel has 78 luxurious suites, 40 villas and 28 newly built Domes Luxury Residences with a large private swimming pool. Also, the international chain Carlson Rezidor Group has signed a franchise contract with the owner company of the hotel Minos Imperial Luxury Beach Resort and Spa in the region of Milatos, Lasithi. The hotel will be renamed into Radisson Blue Beach Resort in 2016.

24 24 In H2 of 2015, the renovation of The Crete Golf Club in Hersonissos, Heraklion, was completed. It is an 8 mn euros investment that aims to turn Crete to an international golf destination. Apart from the unique Mediterranean environment, the development provides a reconstructed 18-hole golf course of high specifications, a renovated Club House, cafébar, a fully equipped golf shop and training facilities. Karatzis group intends to built a new five-star hotel with 240 beds in Hersonissos, Heraklion, an investment that has already been under the provisions of the Investment Law with a total amount of million euros and a financing rate of 30%. At the same time, Stella Polaris Creta, an affiliate of the Karatzis group, plans to build a new five star hotel with 597 beds in the area of Agios Ioannis, Ierapetra, an investment for which the building license has already been issued. The Greek group Vita Hotels completed in May 2015 the purchase of a hotel in the region of Heraklion, reaching the total number of five in Crete. Moreover, the group leased for the next fifteen years the four-star hotel Elounda Aqua Sol and plans to expand and upgrade it to a five star hotel during 2016 and also rename it to Elounda Breeze Resort. As for the rest of the hotels managed by the group, Karolina Mare was totally refurbished and upgraded from three to four-star hotel, Sun Beach will be upgraded from two to five-star hotel in 2016, while a new water park will be added at the four-star hotel Zorbas Village. Karolina Mare, Malia, Heraklion The American colossus Diamond Resorts International, that has already leased 4 hotels in Heraklion (Village Holiday Club & Village Heights Golf Resort) and Rethymno (Grand Leoniki & Leoniki Residence), invested during 2015 together with the owner company around 3 mn euros in order to update the two hotels in Rethymno.

25 25 Vantarakis group, owner of the hotels Mythos Palace and Eliros Mare in the area of Georgioupolis, Chania, will start operating its new five-star hotel Anemos Luxury Grand Resort with 320 rooms. The investment is over 35 mn euros and has already been under the provisions of the Investment Law. Vantaris Hotels, owner of 3hotels in Georgioupolis, is planning the construction of two five-star hotels in Rethymnon (with over 1,000 beds) and Georgioupolis. The investments are of 30 mn euros and 20 mn euros respectively. Papadakis group, owner of the five-star hotel Pilot Beach Resort in Georgioupolis, is planning a new five-star unit next to the existing one. Mathioulakis group, that operates the five-star hotel Minoa Palace Resort & Spa in the area of Platanias, Chania, has put on hold the construction of a five star hotel with 690 beds in Skoutelonas, Kolympari. The investment of more than 40 mn euros has already been under the provisions of the Investment Law. Minoa Palace Resort & Spa Finally, HotelBrain has undertaken the management and operation of the five-star hotel Cretan Pearl Resort & Spa in Stavros, Chania, 4hoteliers is negotiating for Cypriot investors the construction of 2 new five-stars units in Pyrgos Psilonerou and Kolympari, Chania, while a hotel group that do business in Chalkidiki, has recently bought a large seaside plot in Kissamos, Chania, in order to develop a luxurious five-star hotel complex.

26 26 GREECE Athens 15 Vouliagmenis Ave., Τel.: Fax: office@danos.gr Thessaloniki 4 Ionos Dragoumi Str., Τel.: Fax: info.thes@danos.gr Crete - Chania 3 Iroon Polytechniou Str., Τel.: Fax: info.crete@danos-melakis.gr Crete - Heraklion 7 Doukos Beaufort Str., Tel.: Fax: info.crete@danos-melakis.gr CYPRUS Nicosia 35 I. Hatziiosif Ave., 2027 Strovolos Τel.: Fax: sales@danos.com.cy Limassol 69 Gladstonos Str., 3040 Acropolis Centre, Shop 10 Τel.: Fax: limassoldanos@danos.com.cy SERBIA Belgrade 3 Spanskih Βoraca Str , New Belgrade Tel.: Fax: office@danos.rs

27 27 DISCLAIMER This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, view and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by DANOS or BNP PARIBAS RE for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report this material does not necessarily represent the view of DANOS or BNP PARIBAS RE in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to DANOS Research.