US Holiday 2015 FORECAST: Things Are Looking Up for the Holidays

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US Holiday 2015 FORECAST: Things Are Looking Up for the Holidays FBICestimatesthatholidayspendingintheUSwill increaseby3 4thisyear,to$626 $633billion.

1 US Holiday 2015 FORECAST: Things Are Looking Up for the Holidays FBICestimatesthatholidayspendingintheUSwill increaseby3 4thisyear,to$626 $633billion. EDcommerceiscontinuingtorelentlesslygainshare, growing14.1yoyandaccountingfor7.2ofusretail inthesecondquarterof2015.mobilerepresented16 ofedcommercesalesinthesameperiod. TheweatherinDecemberisexpectedtobeslightly colderanddrierthanlastyear,whichshouldbe positiveforretailsalesingeneralandforwinteritems inparticular. ThisisthefirstholidayseasoninwhichtheApple Watchwillbeavailable,anditisnowbeingmarketedin abroadergroupofoutlets;updatedversionsoffitness bandsandothersmartwatchesarealsoavailable. Theconfigurationofthecalendarispositivethisyear forretail,withchristmasfallingonafridayandone moreshoppingdayintheholidayseasonthanin2014. DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre US: HK: C N: DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 1

2 US Holiday 2015 FORECAST: Things Are Looking Up for the Holidays FBIC estimates that total holiday (i.e., November and December) retail' sales' in' 2015' will' increase' by' 3 4,$to$$626 $633$billion,$ based& on& the& NRF s& revised& 2014& sales& figure& of& $608& billion 1." Although( the( growth( rate( may( be( slightly( lower( than( the$ 4$ recorded& in& 2014,& it& is& still& within& the& range& of& holiday& spending& growth'rates'recorded'each'year'since'2012. Figure'1.'Holiday'Retail'Sales'and'Annual'Growth'Rate HolidayRetailSales(USDBil.) $680 $640 $600 $560 $520 $ $529 HolidayRetailSales $ $569 $ GrowthRate $ $626 $ GrowthRate $ E 0 Source:(NRF/FBIC(Global(Retail(&(Technology SLOWING(RETAIL(SALES(GROWTH(APPEARS&TO&HAVE&REBOUNDED& IN#THE#LAST#TWO#MONTHS The$figure$below$shows$the$growth$rate$of$total$retail$sales$plotted$ alongside* combined* grocery* and* supermarket* sales.* Retail* sales* generally(decelerated,(but(maintained(positive(growth(from(august( 2014 April& 2015.& The& rate& turned& slightly& negative& in& May,& but& recovered'in'june'and'july. Grocery' and' supermarket' sales' were' volatile' during' the' period' when retail sales turned negative, yet were up 3.2 for the 12 months' through' July,' outpacing' the' 2.5' growth" in" total" retail" sales. 1 Atthetimeofthisreport spublishing,thenrfreleasedits2015holidayforecast,callingfor3.7growthinholidaysalesto $630.5billion.HolidayspendingwasalsoestimatedtheNRFat19oftotalannualretailsalesof$3.2trillion.TheNRFalso forecasteda6 8increaseinonlinesalestoapproximately$105billion. DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 2

3 Figure'2.'US'Total'Retail'Sales'and'Grocery'and'Supermarket'Sales'Growth' YoY# (2) AugV14 SepV14 OctV14 RetailSales NovV14 DecV14 JanV15 Source:(US(Census(Bureau The$ NRF$ predicted$ that$ US$ consumers$ would$ be$ less$ willing$ to$ spend& on& backvtovschool& items& and& Halloween& items& this& year.& In& July,&the&NRF&forecasted&that&combined&K 12#and#college#backVtoV school&spending&would&decline&by&9.2,&to&$68&billion&this&year.&in& September,) the) NRF) forecasted) that) Halloween) spending) would) decline' by' 6.8,' to' $6.9' billion. Still,& each" of" these" figures" represents'just'1'of'estimated'total'holiday'spending. FebV15 GroceryandSupermarketSales MarV15 AprV15 MayV15 Recovery Decelera[on JunV15 JulV15 EDCOMMERCEAND$MDCOMMERCESTILLPOWERINGAHEAD EVcommerce&continues&to&maintain&a&healthy&growth&rate.&It&did&not& experience(the(same(slowdown(as(retail(sales(did(in(the(first(halfof# 2015,&growing&14.1&YoY&in&the&second&quarter. Figure'3.'US'Retail'EDCommerce'Sales'Growth:'YoY'' Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Seasonally)adjusted Source:(US(Census(Bureau DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 3

4 Figure'4.'Estimated'Quarterly'US'Retail'EDCommerce'Sales'as'a' Percentage)of)Total)Quarterly)Retail)Sales 8 Adjusted NonVadjusted Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 Source:(US(Census(Bureau( 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 MOBILECONTINUES)TO)GAIN)SHARE)WITHIN)EDCOMMERCE Mobile'commerce'continues'to'gain'share'within'the'eVcommerce& category.* Mobile* accounted* for* 16* of* digital* commerce* in* the* second'quarter'of'2015,'nearly'twice'its'share&two&years&ago.&the& graph&below&(which&features&an&adjusted&scale)&shows&the&share&of& mobile'commerce'to'total'evcommerce&since&2013. Figure'5.'MDCommerce s)share)of)edcommerce Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Desktop Mobile Source:(comScore DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 4

HOT$HOLIDAY$TECHGIFTABLES Tech gadgets have infiltrated our lives, even for those of

become&a&common&theme&of&holiday&gift&giving.

The$most$significant(new(tech(product(this(year(is(the(Apple(Watch,(

Buy# and# Target# (as# of# October# 26).

Force&Touch$physical$feedback$technology.

screen remote,'voice'control'and'an'online'program'guide is#expected#to# ship before

Chromecastand$Amazon$Fire$TV$are$available$as$well.

launched on October 6; smartwatches and fitness

and$audio$gear$such$as$headphones)and)external)speakers.

5 HOT$HOLIDAY$TECHGIFTABLES Tech gadgets have infiltrated our lives, even for those of us with nonvtechie& leanings& or& careers,& so& these& types& of& gadgets& have& become&a&common&theme&of&holiday&gift&giving.&below,&we&look&at& categories*that*we*believe*will*stand*out*this*holiday*season. The$most$significant(new(tech(product(this(year(is(the(Apple(Watch,( whichwaslaunchedonjune26andisnowavailablemorebroadly at# retailers# such# as# Best# Buy# and# Target# (as# of# October# 26).# The# iphone' 6s' is' a' speedier' iphone' 6' with' a' better' camera' and' the' Force&Touch$physical$feedback$technology.$Also$on$the$Apple$front,$ the$ fourthvgeneration) Apple) TV which features a touch screen remote,'voice'control'and'an'online'program'guide is#expected#to# ship before the holidays, and updated versions of the Google Chromecastand$Amazon$Fire$TV$are$available$as$well. Other& hot& products& include& Microsoft s& new& Surface& Pro& 4& tablet,& which was launched on October 6; smartwatches and fitness bands,'many'of'which'are'now'in'their'second'generation;'drones;' and$audio$gear$such$as$headphones)and)external)speakers.)many) new,cleverlydesignedexternalbatteriesshouldalsobebigsellers thisholidayseason. Smartwatches Fitness Bands iphone 6s Streaming Players Drones Headphones Bluetooth Speakers Microsoft Surface Pro 4 External Power Sources DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 5

HOT$HOLIDAY$TOYS FBICisalsotrackingthehottoysthisholidayseason,alongwith their&pricing&(which&we&will&cover&in&a&separate&report).

FisherVPrice Dimensions Starter Pack LEGO Doc McStuffins Pet Vet Checkup Center JustPlay Frozen Sing- a- Long Elsa Doll Disney Go

Smartwatch VTech& MeccaNoid G15 Meccano Paw Patrol Paw Patroller Paw$Patrol Series 3 Scoops Ice Cream Truck Playset Shopkins

0 Edition Disney Starlily, My Magical Unicorn FurReal(Friends Ultimate Garage Hot$Wheels Voice Command Heli Vehicle SkyRover

The$configuration$of$the$calendar(is(positive(for(2015,(since(there(is( an#extra#day#between#thanksgiving#and#christmas#this#year.

thenumberofdaysbetweenthanksgivingandchristmas ranges'from'26'(as#in#2013)#to#32#(as#in#2012).

1990s) and) has) since) become&an&international&shopping&event.

6 HOT$HOLIDAY$TOYS FBICisalsotrackingthehottoysthisholidayseason,alongwith their&pricing&(which&we&will&cover&in&a&separate&report).&below,&we& listwhatareprojected(asofthetimeofthiswriting)tobethe$hot$ toysthisseason,sortedbybrand. Figure'6.'Hot'Toys'for'Holiday'2015 Toy Name Brand Avengers: XPV Marvel- RC Hulk Smash Toy Vehicle XPV Barbie Dreamhouse Mattel Bladebuilders Jedi Master Lightsaber StarWars Bright Bears Smart Touch Play Space FisherVPrice Bright Beats Dance & Move BeatBo FisherVPrice Dimensions Starter Pack LEGO Doc McStuffins Pet Vet Checkup Center JustPlay Frozen Sing- a- Long Elsa Doll Disney Go Go Smart Wheels Ultimate RC Speedway VTech& Happy Dance Snoopy Plush Peanuts Imaginext Ultra T- Rex FisherVPrice Kidizoom Smartwatch VTech& MeccaNoid G15 Meccano Paw Patrol Paw Patroller Paw$Patrol Series 3 Scoops Ice Cream Truck Playset Shopkins Sesame Street Play All Day Elmo Playskool Star Wars Infinity 3.0 Edition Disney Starlily, My Magical Unicorn FurReal(Friends Ultimate Garage Hot$Wheels Voice Command Heli Vehicle SkyRover Source:(FBIC(Global(Research(&(Tech/Retailers (websites A"MORE"FAVORABLE"HOLIDAY"CALENDARTHISYEAR The$configuration$of$the$calendar(is(positive(for(2015,(since(there(is( an#extra#day#between#thanksgiving#and#christmas#this#year.#there# are$ 29$ days$ between$ the$ holidays$ this$ year,$ compared$ to$ 28$ days$ lastyear.thenumberofdaysbetweenthanksgivingandchristmas ranges'from'26'(as#in#2013)#to#32#(as#in#2012). First& up& is& Singles & Day& (on& 11/11,& with& the& ones& representing& singles),) which) originated) in) China) in) the) 1990s) and) has) since) become&an&international&shopping&event. As# always,# Thanksgiving# falls# on# a# Thursday# (November# 26# this$ year),'black'friday'the'day'after'(november'27)'and'cyber'monday' the$monday$after$that$(november$30).$last$year,$cyber$monday$fell$ on#december#1. DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 6

7 DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. Giving&Tuesday,&now&in&its&fourth&year,&falls&on&the&day&after&Cyber& Monday,(on(December(1(this(year,(and"it"is#a#global#day#of#giving# employingsocial'media'and'collaboration. Green Monday was coined by retailers to represent the best shopping(day(in(december,(or(the(monday(at(least(10(days(before( Christmas,*falling*on*December*7*this*year.* The$Saturday$before&Christmas&is&called&Super&Saturday&and&will&fall& on#december#19#this#year.#christmas#will#be#on#a#friday#this#year,# leaving( the( next( day,( a( Saturday,( free( for( returns( and( afterv Christmas) sales. The$ day$ is$ considered$ super$ since$ many$ retailers$ generate#the#majority#of#their#holiday#sales#on#that#day. This year, Chanukah runs from Monday, December 7, through Monday,(December(14.(The(holiday(will(add(to(the(shopping(frenzy( that$will$start$after$thanksgiving$and$end$at$christmas. Super&Saturday&is&the&lastSaturdaybeforeChristmas,markingthe lastfullweekendforlastvminute'shoppers. HOLIDAY2015 November2015 December2015 Wk Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Wk Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su HOLIDAY2014 November2014 December2014 Wk Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Wk Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Thanksgiving BlackFriday GreenMonday SuperSat. CyberMonday Christmas Chanukah(Sundowntosundown) Singles Day GivingTuesday 7

HOLIDAY(WEATHERFORECAST:*COLDER,*WITH*MORE* PRECIPITATION*IN*SOME*REGIONS WeatherVforecasting, firm, Planalytics, projects, that, temperatures, thisdecemberwillbe2loweronaveragethanlastdecember s.

Although(Planalytics(expects(4(less(rainfall(than(last(December which should benefit retail traffic higher& snowfall& in& the& MidV South&and&Southwest&regions&could&drive&needVbased&purchases)of)

'December'2015'PrecipitationForecast:* 4#Less#than#Last#Year Looking' back' to' last' year,' December' 2014' was' the' warmest' December'since'2012'and'the'wettest'since'2009.

8 HOLIDAY(WEATHERFORECAST:*COLDER,*WITH*MORE* PRECIPITATION*IN*SOME*REGIONS WeatherVforecasting, firm, Planalytics, projects, that, temperatures, thisdecemberwillbe2loweronaveragethanlastdecember s. The$ colder' temperatures' should' drive' demand' for' winter' apparel' and$consumables. Although(Planalytics(expects(4(less(rainfall(than(last(December which should benefit retail traffic higher& snowfall& in& the& MidV South&and&Southwest&regions&could&drive&needVbased&purchases)of) winter'items. Figure'7.'December'2015'TemperatureForecast:* 2#Colder#than#Last#Year Figure'8.'December'2015'PrecipitationForecast:* 4#Less#than#Last#Year Looking' back' to' last' year,' December' 2014' was' the' warmest' December'since'2012'and'the'wettest'since'2009.'The'Black'Friday' weekend&was&warmer&than&the&year&before,&however&temperatures& were$still$below$normal.$precipitation$was$higher$than$in$december$ of#2013,#yet#still#below#normal#levels. CONCLUSION FBICexpects' annual' US' holiday' spending' to' increase' by' 3 4#in# 2015,& to& $626 $633$ billion,$ despite$ there$ having$ been$ some$ volatility(in(spending(in(the(late(spring.(that(volatility(was(followed( by# a# solid# rebound# in# June# and# July.# Within# retail,# spending# on# grocery&and&at&supermarkets&has&remained&solid,&also&despite&some& volatility.)the)evcommerce&channel&has&continued&to&account&for&an& increasing)share)of)us)retail)sales,)gaining)through)the)spring)and) summer.'within'evcommerce,'the'share'of'transactions'completed on#mobile#devices#has#continued#its#steady#increase#as#well. DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COMUS: HK: CN: Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. 8

9 9 DEBORAHWEINSWIG,EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR HEADOFGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY Copyright 2015TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved. DeborahWeinswig,CPA ExecutiveDirector HeadofGlobalRetail&Technology FungBusinessIntelligenceCentre NewYork: HongKong: FilippoBattaini MarieDriscoll,CFA JohnHarmon,CFA AragornHo JohnMercer ShoshanaPollack KirilPopov JingWang StevenWinnick HONGKONG: 10thFloor,LiFungTower 888CheungShaWanRoad,Kowloon HongKong Tel: LONDON: 242V246MaryleboneRoad London,NW16JQ UnitedKingdom Tel:44(0) NEW$YORK: 1359Broadway,9 th Floor NewYork,NY10018 Tel: FBICGROUP.COM

Going Places? These#high+footfall#locations#are#also#being#used#by#UK#retailers#to#offer# collection#points#for#online#purchases.!

Going Places? These#high+footfall#locations#are#also#being#used#by#UK#retailers#to#offer# collection#points#for#online#purchases.! Going Places? Transit Retail UK & Worldwide UK retailers++from grocers to clothing stores to gift shops++are increasinglyofferinggreaterconveniencewithstoresatrailwaystations, airportsandpetrol/gasstations.