INVITATION LETTER CATCHING UP AND CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING TRENDS: HOW TO FIX UP THE MAIN FRACTURES OF THE SYSTEM

Transcription

1 KOPAONIK BUSINESS FORUM 2016 CATCHING UP AND CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING TRENDS in partnership with Master Card Kopaonik Convention Centre March 8-10, 2016 INVITATION LETTER On behalf of the Serbian Association of Economists and the Serbian Association of Corporate Directors we are pleased to invite you to the 23 rd Kopaonik Business Forum Traditionally, the Forum is organized under the patronage of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Serbia. Every year the Forum gathers more than 600 participants, including respectable scholars, government representatives, diplomatic officials, business practitioners, and media. The Forum will be held on March 8-10, 2016 at Kopaonik Convention Centre under the title: CATCHING UP AND CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING TRENDS: HOW TO FIX UP THE MAIN FRACTURES OF THE SYSTEM The Program Committee has foreseen debate on the following three thematic clusters: March 8, 2016: Economic Consequences of the New Normality: Problems, Causes and Solutions March 9, 2016: Reform Agenda Update: State Reform and Public Sector Restructuring March 10, 2016: Further Steps in the Reform Agenda Between our two forums, things have radically changed in Serbia and its environment as well. In Serbia, fiscal consolidation is still in process. It is a headline. Fiscal imbalances always jeopardize the growth prospects. Inflation is under control (CPI y/y = 1.5%) and recently the World Bank has announced a significant improvement in business climate (9 places improvement in rank in Doing Business list). Public debt (75% of GDP) is critical vulnerability indicator. Other macroeconomic indicators are not good enough, primarily unemployment (19% ILO rate), particularly youth unemployment rate (>50%), investment ratio (2.5% of GDP), share of industrial production in output (22% of GDP), and growth rate (1.5%). Trends are good but performance improvement is not good enough. Without deepening, expanding and accelerating reforms in state sector and institutional setting, current achievements in fiscal sector will not be sustainable. Multi-pronged structural reforms are absolute must not only for sustainability of macro management achievements, but also for catching up with the EU. Discontinuity or dominance of frequent, radical and inter-related changes in modern world is evident. In the EU, the new normality entails quantitative easing in monetary policy and social unrest due to refugee influx and terrorism. Both factors challenge the economy, social cohesion and political stability. Money printing of such magnitude has never been done before. Emerging new bubbles in the financial sector and related sectors (real estate and fast-growing sectors out of real economy) is a real threat. Financialisation of the economy and growing concentration of wealth hamper investment and job creation and redirect economy from creation to redistribution of wealth. It is hidden fracture of the system because an expansionary monetary policy without investments in real economy may trigger inflation and make spillover effect from the Eurozone to the connected economies. Finally yet importantly, the great migration of people and terrorism are deepening the crisis of political legitimacy. Terrorism not only agonize politicians in every corner of Europe, but also decrease economic expectations and growth prospects. Unfortunately, the new normality has further deepened old fractures in relations between nations, especially in sensitive regions of Europe like the Western Balkans. Concerning technology development, there are two roadmaps, exogenous (strategically important areas like energy, food, infrastructure, health care and military) and endogenous (consumer and investment goods). The main constraint for exogenous technological development is sustainability. New tenets are decoupling well-being from resource consumption, providing full employment, and protecting the environment. Circular economy and inclusive growth are results of new vision. Endogenous technological development is typical in technologically intensive fields from commercial sectors like ICT, new and nano materials, bio technology, pharmacy, robotics, etc. Disruptive innovation and its deflationary character are the main characteristics of that path of development. Technological breakthroughs from ICT, such as cloud computing, application-centric computing, internet of things as well as disruptive innovations from high tech sectors like additive manufacturing are followed by cost-cutting business models (e-commerce, bitcoin, software transaction supply chain, etc.), and usually working as neutron bomb for labor force, particularly, in mature industries like banking, insurance, trade, manufacturing, etc., challenging social cohesion. In conceptual platform we are at the end of what has been known as neoliberal capitalism and associated long-running era of high growth and expectations. Regulated capitalism is new normality. It leads to a question. Is it possible to move from current economic model to a better one without a collapse? Fear of fear itself and greater risk aversion in regulated capitalism are new phenomena. They inhibit the growth of tradable sectors in developed economies. Another challenges are disruptive innovations and deflationary character of technological breakthroughs. In commodities and low-end products, threats are coming from agile low-cost competitors from emerging economies. Due to hyper competition, for mature industries from developed world reaching the poorest consumers, including the home market, is almost impossible. If we add to the above-mentioned trends the absence of demographic dividend due to diminishing birth rate and population ageing, we can conclude that keeping pace with technological progress, establishing circular economy and, in the same time, achieving sustainable competitive advantage, full employment and 1

2 balanced budget are not easy targets for policy makers. Different views about distribution and control of power open the ultimate challenge, geopolitical crisis. Due to non-economic events like wars, sanctions and restrictions, trade and financial flows are not as global as they once were. As a consequence, there is a certain shift in mindset from ready to be global to ready to be local. A deglobalization as reaction on the geopolitical crisis combined with growing awareness of the necessity for universal environmental control is the main contradiction of the modern world s (dis)order. In new realty every national economy, large or small, developed or developing, is looking for the new vision of growth. But, again, to survive and prosper, every economy needs to keep growing. Growth, sustainable and inclusive, should not be questioned at all. But achieving the growth in time of radical changes for the country like Serbia with delay in economic development is a moving target. Despite recently imposed fiscal discipline, Serbian economy is fraught with hidden fractures fueling insolvency. Also, economy does not have reserves to cope with emerging risks factors in rapidly changing world. The economy is heavily burdened with the legacy of large state sector (public utilities and business controversial group of commercial state-owned enterprises in restructuring). Public administration is large and inefficient. The share of public sector in GDP exceeds comparable level in the EU. Growing public debt and tacit liabilities (state-guaranteed loans to public sector) fuel insolvency. Economically inspired migration combined with refugee influx jeopardize the sustainability of rural areas, particularly near the country borders, and increasing security costs. With a difficult external environment and a burden of negative consequences of inadequate macroeconomic fundamentals, in the following period Serbia could expect, at best, a moderate economic recovery. The IMF forecasts are 1.5% for 2016 and 2.0% for To achieve income convergence with the EU, it means attaining compound average growth rate of 6% until Is this feasible? Maybe yes, maybe not. If the answer is yes, it requires some preconditions. In the time of radical structural changes just sitting back and doing nothing is the greatest mistake especially for small and impotent economy with the delay in economic development. To make the impossible possible, Serbia needs brilliant statesmen with the clear vision for new geopolitical positioning of the country and pro-reform mindset as well as skilled technocrats to execute multi-pronged structural reforms to redirect and accelerate the growth and, by doing this, to reignite income convergence with the EU. Shortly, country needs strategic leadership. If you don t have a strategic leadership, you are probably a part of someone else s strategy. What is the main manifestation of strategic leadership in Serbia concerning the new global normality? First of all, strategists must address geopolitical risks to economic development instead of covering them up. They need to equip themselves with a broader perspective, expanded outlook and the will to settle open issues. Serbia must find sustainable balance between its own interests and those of the EU and other global players, on which it depends in numerous regards and towards which it is approaching. In order to do that, the leaders must confront major dilemmas and painful choices and act consistently. Buying the time and being stuck in the middle might be dangerous geopolitical fault lines. Populism has never led to sustainable economic development and political stability. From economics perspective, the imperative is achieving compatibility in institutional setting with the EU. In case of achieving that tenet, the rhythm of geopolitical positioning would be less significant. Internally, Serbia must reorient itself toward relevant people like entrepreneurs, unemployed, in most cases, educated youngsters, and technocrats. To this end, Serbia must outdo itself. Land-locked country should not be mindset-blocked. Mindset is important, but mindsetting is critical. In new economic policy, the major challenge is to reconcile fiscal stability and growth. Fiscal consolidation is in progress, inflation is under control and growth rate is in positive territory. But without strengthening reforms, these achievements are not sustainable. Serbia must continue with the policy of hard budget constraint, downsize public administration while reducing state footprint, tackle the legacy of burdensome public sector, escape fiscal inflation through transfer of funds released from rightsizing of public sector into investments, energize reforms inspired by a full compatibility of institutional setting with the EU, and start with industrialization based on new industrial policies. Debt servicing and balanced budget require tradable sectors expansion. The EU-like institutional setting, small but efficient state, business-friendly mindset of politicians, dual system of education, science focused on tradable sectors and sustainable health care are prerequisites for intelligent investments in private and state sectors. In the hope that you will be able to adjust your schedule and make a valuable contribution to resolving the foregoing issues, we would like to invite you to take part in this interactive event, which aspires to be a true festivity for economists and business practitioners as well as a source of viable ideas for policy makers. Some observers assume that Forum will not allow for much more than an annual update and marching orders from the top. Our thought is that in every action or inaction, there are hidden values. These values always express themselves somehow. Moreover, ideas flow across the forum s events, forming the Kopaonik Consensus and laying the groundwork for genuine collaboration afterwards. Just the same, we will take stock of the commitments from the last year s Forum and pave the way to the next one. As organizers of the Forum, we really seek to cultivate a network of relevant people and, by doing so, to create the structure of interactions in which there is a lot of discussion, debate, dialogue, and knowledge sharing. We seek to establish ourselves as a true force for new ideas in Serbia. Again, the choice is up to you! 2

3 Aleksandar Vlahovic President Serbian Economists Association Prof. Dragan Djuric President Serbian Association of Corporate Directors CONFERENCE AGENDA March 7, 2016 REGISTRATION AND WELCOME 12:00-20:00 Registration 20:30-21:30 МК Group Welcome Party March 8, 2016 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE NEW NORMALITY: PROBLEMS, CAUSES AND SOLUTIONS 09:15-09:45 Opening Addresses: VLAHOVIC Aleksandar, President, Association of Serbian Economists 09:45-11:15 Plenary Session 1: Strategic Audit of Serbia s Position and Recovery Prospects Keynote Speakers: VUCIC Aleksandar, Prime Minister, Government of the Republic of Serbia TABAKOVIC Jorgovanka, Governor, National Bank of Serbia VUJOVIC Dusan, Minister of Finance, Government of the Republic of Serbia DJURICIN Dragan, Forum Chairman 11:15-12:00 One MasterCard Special Event Keynote Speaker 12:00-12:30 Coffee break 12:30-13:45 Panel 1: Macro, Fiscal and Structural Reform Agenda LABUS Miroljub, Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Belgrade JURCIC Ljubo, President, Croatian Association of Economists KIM Daehaeng, Resident Representative for Serbia, IMF SAVIC Nebojsa, President of the Council of the Governor, NBS/Professor, FEFA SOSKIC Dejan, Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade VUCKOVIC Vladimir, Member, Fiscal Council of the Republic of Serbia 13:45-15:00 Panel 2: Demand and Asset Quality in Financial Sector: Wait and See or the New Agility DJURIC Draginja, President of the Executive Board, Banca Intesa CARIC Slavko, President of the Executive Board, Erste Bank CESARIO Klaudio, President of the Executive Board, UniCredit Bank GALIC Jelena, President of the Executive Board, AIK Bank JEVTIC Djordje, Director, Administration for Supervision of Financial Institutions, NBS PITIC Goran, President of the Board, Societe Generale Serbia/Professor, FEFA VATHIS Marinos, President of the Executive Board, Vojvodjanska Bank 13:45-15:00 Panel 3: Regional Cooperation and Competitiveness Improvement CADEZ Marko, President, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia Introductory speaker: SVILANOVIĆ Goran, Secretary General, Council for Regional Cooperation 3

4 15:00-17:45 Networking BOJIC Bruno, President, Foreign Trade Chamber of Bosnia and Herzegovina BURILOVIC Luka, President, Croatian Chamber of Commerce JAKA Nikolin, President, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Albania MIJUSKOVIC Velimir, President, Chamber of Economy of Montenegro MIKEREVIC Dragan, Professor, Faculty of Economy, Banja Luka 17:45-18:15 Special guest: CUBE Risk Management Solutions Old Habits or New Business Style 18:15-19:00 Price Waterhouse Coopers Global CEO Survey results after Davos now on Kopaonik: Find out what s on the mind of CEOs in Serbia as they took part in the Global Survey for the first time 19:00-20:00 Panel 4: Shadow economy MILETIC Ivan, Philip Morris SEE TUREMKA Artur, Country Manager for Balkan Region, MasterCard DANIČIĆ Siniša, CEO, Strauss Adriatic JTI representative MINISTRY OF JUSTICE representative OZEGOVIC Zeljko, State Secretary, Ministry of State Administration and Local Self-Government 20:00-21:15 Panel 5: Key Issues Update in Insurance Industry RISTANOVIC Snezana, CEO, Raiffeisen Future ANDJELIC Djordje, General Manager, Insurance Supervision Department, NBS BLAGOJEVIC Zoran, Member of the Executive Board, Wiener Städtische Insurance BUKUMIRIC Gordana, Executive Director, UNIQA Insurance FILIPOVIC Dragan, President of the Board and CEO, Generali Insurance Serbia JOVANOVIC Dusko, Secretary General, Association of Serbian Insurers PETROVIC Mirko, CEO, Dunav Insurance 20:00-21:15 Panel 6: Foreign Investors Expectations Regarding Economic Reforms TSOMOKOS Symeon, President, Business Council Greece-Serbia BODE Ernst, Senior Vice President South Eastern Europe, Messer Group/Executive Director, Messer Tehnogas CUPIC Vladimir, CEO, Representative Office Atlantic Group Serbia EICHLINGER Udo, CEO, Simens Serbia KARAMANOLIS Filippos, President of the Executive Board, Eurobank KYRITSIS John, CEO, Delhaize Serbia MARCHEGIANI Giorgio, CEO, DDOR Novi Sad 21:15-22:30 Panel 7: New Geopolitical Realities and Spillover on the Economy VUJACIC Ivan, Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade CEPURIN Aleksandar, Russian Ambassador to Serbia DAVENPORT Michael, Head of the European Union Delegation in Serbia DITTMANN Axel, German Ambassador to Serbia EIGNER Johannes, Austrian Ambassador to Serbia MANCHANG Lee, Chinese Ambassador to Serbia MANZO Giuseppe, Italian Ambassador to Serbia SCOTT Kyle, U.S. Ambassador to Serbia 4

5 23:00-01:00 Ernst & Young Midnight Party March 9, 2016 REFORM AGENDA UPDATE: STATE REFORM AND PUBLIC SECTOR RESTRUCTURING 09:00-09:45 Plenary Session 2: Infrastructure Development and SOEs Restructuring Keynote Speakers: 09:45-10:00 Coffee Break MIHAJLOVIC Zorana, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure, Government of the Republic of Serbia SERTIC Zeljko, Minister of Economy, Government of the Republic of Serbia PETROVIĆ Pavle, President, Fiscal Council Republic of Serbia 10:00-11:15 Panel 8: Restructuring of State-Owned Enterprises: Success Stories and Dilemmas RADONJIC PETROVIC Dragijana, Vice President, Serbian Association of Economists ALEKSIĆ PREDRAG, CEO, Srbijašume BOSNJAKOVIC Srdjan, Deputy CEO, NIS Gasprom Neft KONDIC Dane, CEO, Air Serbia OBRADOVIC Aleksandar, CEO, Elektroprivreda Srbije SERTIC Zeljko, Minister of Economy, Government of the Republic of Serbia VERHEIJEN Tony, Country Manager for Serbia, Europe and Central Asia, World Bank 10:00-11:15 Panel 9: Unlocking Opportunities for Infrastructure Development and Tradable Sectors Expansion SPASOJEVIC Toplica, President, ITM Group BERG Daniel, EBRD Director for Serbia LIANG Gao, CEO, CRBC Montenegro MICIC Vasilije, President of the Managing Board, Putevi Uzice MIHAJLOVIC Zorana, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure, Government of the Republic of Serbia MILOVANOVIC Vladimir, CEO, Energoprojekt Holding 11:15-12:15 Panel 10: Cashless Society Master Card Representative Panelist: STANIC Dragana, National Bank of Serbia MIJAILOVIC Nenad, State Secretary, Ministry of Finance 12:15-13:30 Panel 11: Staying Ahead of Technology Shifts (ICT and Tech Sector Innovations) VUJOVIC Branislav, Chairman, New Frontier Group CULIBRK Predrag, CEO, Telekom Serbia DJURKOVIC Milos, CEO, HP Serbia FREDHEIM Ove, CEO, Telenor Serbia RADOVIC Suzana, Territory Business Manager for Serbia and Montenegro, Cisco Serbia 5

6 SAMARDZIC Drago, CEO, Coming TURK Dejan, CEO, Vip mobile 12:15-13:30 Panel 12: Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Do We Really Perceive Them as Engines of Growth RAKIC Ivan, Partner, Ernst&Young JANKOVIC Bozo, CEO and Owner, Enterijer Jankovic LITVINJENKO Mila, CEO and Owner, Aura Cosmetics OBRADOVIC JOVANOVIC Katarina, Deputy Minister of Economy, Government of the Republic of Serbia POPOVIC PANTIC Sanja, President, Association of Business Women in Serbia TOLMACEVA DINGARAC Svetlana, President of the Executive Board, Procredit Bank 13:30-14:45 Panel 13: Industrial Policy in Trade and Tourism: Sectoral and Regional Perspective PETKOVIC Goran, Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade KOVAC Vesna, State Secretary, Ministry of Trade, Tourism and Telecommunication, Government of the Republic of Serbia KOVACEVIC Goran, CEO, Gomex PEJANOVIC Stanka, CEO, Gorenje Srbija SENICIC Aleksandar, CEO, YUTA STANOJEVIC Dejan, CEO, Special Hospital Merkur Vrnjacka Banja VASIC Zivorad, CEO, Crown Plaza 13:30-14:45 Panel 14: Agribusiness: Routes of the Problems and Solutions VITOSEVIC Sasa, General Manager, Global Seed GOLUBOVIC Danilo, State Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection, Government of the Republic of Serbia KIS Miroslav, President, Association of Agriculture MATIJEVIC Petar, Owner, Meat Industry Matijevic PULJIC Ljerka, Member of the Supervisory Board, Agrokor VUJACIC Nikola, Operations Officer, Victoria Group ZIVKOV Goran, Founder & Program Director, SEEDEV 14:45-15:15 Special presentation: Srbijasume 15:15-18:00 Networking 18:00-18:30 Special event: BelHospice Projects 18:30-19:00 Special event: Aleksandar Djordjevic Uniqa 19:00-20:00 Panel 15: UAE Investments in Serbia VLAHOVIĆ Aleksandar, President, Association of Serbian Economists UAE PUBLIC representative ETIHAD AIRWAYS representative EAGLE HILLS representative AL DAHRA RUDNAP representative MIRABANK representative ZOBNATICA representative 20:00-21:15 Panel 16: Science, Education: A Road to Knowledge-Based Economy KISIC Svetlana, Chairman of the Board, Junior Achievement Serbia 6

7 Special guest: KOSTIC Vladimir, President, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts BUDEC Darko, CEO, BUCK DRECUN Aleksandra, President, Harvard Club of Serbia POPOVIC Dragan, CEO, Schneider Electric DMS NS TRBOVIC Ana, Professor, FEFA VERBIC Srdjan, Minister of Education, Science and Technological Development, Government of the Republic of Serbia 20:00-21:15 Panel 17: Prospects for Local Development and Business Environment Overview ATANASIJEVIC Jasna, Director, Secretariat for Public Policy, Government of the Republic of Serbia ATANASIJEVIC Vladan, Chairman, NALED/ Director, ASSECO BOSNJAK Ivan, State Secretary, Ministry of Public Administration and Local Self-Government, Government of the Republic of Serbia MALI Sinisa, Mayor, City of Belgrade NEDIMOVIC Branislav, Mayor, Sremska Mitrovica ZELIC Nikola, Partner, Factis 21:15-22:30 Panel 18: Sustainable Competitive Advantage and How to Achieve It: Regional Success Stories KOSTIC Miodrag, Chairman, MK Group GRUJIC Branislav, Chairman, PSP-FARMAN JOVANOVIC Andrej, Director, Moji brendovi OKUKA Miroslav, Managing Director, Tarkett TEDESCHI Emil, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlantic Group TODORIC Ante, Executive Vice President, Agrokor VUKADINOVIC Dragoljub, President, Metalac Group 23:00-01:00 Mira Bank Midnight Party March 10, 2016 FURTHER STEPS IN THE REFORM AGENDA 09:30-10:30 Plenary Session 3: The Future of Energy Sector and Health Care Begins with Their Redefining 10:30-11:00 Coffee Break Keynote Speakers: ANTIC Aleksandar, Minister of Mining and Energy, Government of the Republic of Serbia LONCAR Zlatibor, Minister of Health, Government of the Republic of Serbia UDOVICIC Vanja, Minister of Youth and Sports, Government of the Republic of Serbia BJORNBERG Arne, Chairman, Health Consumer Powerhouse, Sweden 11:00-12:30 Panel 19: Health Care in Serbia from Pharmaceutical Companies Perspective LONCAR Dragan, Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade GAJOVIC SHRESTHA Milena, CEO, Medigroup GOVEDARICA Ana, General Manager, Roche Serbia KNEZEVIC Jasmina, CEO, Bel Medic LONCAR Zlatibor, Minister of Health, Government of the Republic of Serbia SEELIGER Ronald, CEO, Hemofarm 11:00-12:30 Panel 20: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Sources TANIC Gordan, Head of Department of Economic and Finance Affairs, Energy Agency of the Republic of Serbia 7

8 ANTIC Aleksandar, Minister of Mining and Energy, Government of the Republic of Serbia NOVAKOVIC Goran, Partner, NIS Energowind PETROVIC Nikola, General Manager, Elektromreza Srbije GIOVANNETTI Tiziano, Director, MK Fintel Wind 12:30-13:00 Kopaonik Consensus 2016 Closing Remarks Note: The names of panelists in the program are listed in alphabetical order 8