EVIDENCE OF DAVID ALEX CAMPBELL BAMFORD. Dated: 14 January 2015

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1 BEFORE THE SOUTHLAND DISTRICT COUNCIL & THE SOUTHLAND REGIONAL COUNCIL IN THE MATTER OF: the Resource Management Act 1991 AND IN THE MATTER OF: a resource consent application by the Southland District Council to construct a cycle trail from Mt Nicholas Road bridge over the Oreti River to map reference NZMS 260 D43: EVIDENCE OF DAVID ALEX CAMPBELL BAMFORD Dated: 14 January 2015 Instructing Solicitors for Southland District Council: Scholefield Cockroft Lloyd PO Box 166 Invercargill 9840 Tel: Counsel for Southland District Council: Clare Lenihan 102 Jed Street Invercargill 9810 Tel: (03)

2 QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE 1. My full name is David Alex Campbell Bamford. I reside in Wellington and have done so for most of my life. 2. I hold a Bachelor of Science and Geography degree from Victoria University and a Diploma of Parks and Recreation Management from Lincoln College, now Lincoln University. I am a member of the New Zealand Tourism Industry Association and various recreation clubs. I am a founding Director of TRC Tourism in Wellington, and have been in private practice as a tourism and recreation consultant since From 1976 to 1981, I was employed by the former Department of Lands and Survey as a National Park ranger in various New Zealand national parks. I was based at Franz Josef Glacier in South Westland between 1976 and 1979 and at Tongariro National Park from 1979 to From 1981 to 1986, I was in a senior management position in the Head Office of the National Parks and Reserves Service. My experience in the national parks service focused on recreation and resource management, recreation planning, recreation policy and implementation throughout all New Zealand s national parks and marine protected areas. 5. From 1986, I was actively involved as a manager and director in a New Zealand-based consultancy firm Tourism Resource Consultants, now TRC Tourism, which provides recreation, parks and tourism services, both in New Zealand and internationally. I sold my ownership of TRC Tourism in 2013 and now work as a consultant. 6. The focus of TRC Tourism s work includes: strategies, policy development and business advice. 7. I have provided expert advice in projects such as this one, the Mohaka Planning Tribunal in 1991, the Kawerau National Water Conservation hearing in 1992, the Clifford Bay Ferry Terminal Resource Consent hearing in 1997, the Transpower applications for resource consent to construct transmission towers through parts of the Waikato, and Meridian Energy s successful application to develop a wind farm near Makara, Wellington and to Porters Ski Area Plan change application. 8. I have worked extensively throughout New Zealand, Asia and the Pacific over the last 25 years. I am regularly involved with recreation, tourism and development issues throughout New Zealand, Australia, Asia and the Pacific. 9. I have had over 25 years experience as an advisor in the assessment and development of many new tourism products and attractions. These products and attractions include Kaikoura Whalewatching, several eco-tourism lodges and the NZ Cycle Trail project including business plans for several cycle trails. 10. I have been involved, over the last 25 years, in senior positions on a wide range of recreational and tourism committees and associations, including: Chair of the New Zealand Mountain Safety Council; the New Zealand Alpine Club, of which I am a previous President; the Pacific Environmental Development Fund; the New Zealand Walkways Committee; the New Zealand Sub-Antarctica Islands Committee; the National Parks Centennial Committee; and the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Recreation Council. I am past president of the Tongariro Natural History Society (Project Tongariro) that promotes and 2 Page

3 supports the values of Tongariro National Park. 11. I am active in a range of outdoor activities, such as mountaineering, skiing, mountain biking, tramping, yachting, windsurfing and fly-fishing. 12. I am familiar with the resource consent application by the Southland District Council to construct a cycle trail from Mt Nicholas Road bridge over the Oreti River to map reference NZMS 260 D43: to which these proceedings relate. 13. I have read the Code of Conduct for expert witnesses contained in the Environment Court Consolidate Practice Note updated March 2011 and I agree to comply with it. My qualifications as an expert are set out above. I confirm that this evidence is written within my area of expertise, except where I state that I am relying on the evidence of another person. 14. I have not omitted to consider material facts known to me that might alter or detract from the opinions expressed. SCOPE OF EVIDENCE 15. I was asked by the Southland District Council to assess the proposed Around the Mountains Cycle Trail (ATMCT) route (please refer to the map in the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, figure 7, page 29), and the potential market demand for the ATMCT two proposed trail options. 16. In preparing my evidence, I worked closely with David Stimpson of Stimpson & Co, who undertook an independent assessment of economic impacts of the ATMCT route options. 17. In preparing my evidence, I have drawn heavily on my report the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014) (appendix 1). 18. I have read the draft evidence from Southland District Council s economic advisor for this hearing, David Stimpson. 19. My evidence will deal with the market projections for the ATMCT s two possible trail options. 20. I also address the relevant concerns of submitters to the second stage of the ATMCT resource consent application, and respond to Mr Roy s Southland District Council s report on the ATMCT. THE RESOURCE CONSENT PROPOSED BY THE SOUTHLAND DISTRICT COUNCIL 21. Please refer to the resource consent for the ATMCT sector for the Upper Oreti Valley by the Southland District Council. STUDY APPROACH 22. For this assessment of market demand for the ATMCT, the following methods were used: An analysis of the future visitor arrivals to New Zealand and Southland. 3 Page

4 An analysis of current tourism and cycle markets to New Zealand and Southland and potential trends. Market trend data from a selection of NZ Cycle Trails both multi-day cyclist and single-day use cyclists. I reviewed Tourism Resource Consultant s report The New Zealand Cycleway Market Research, September 2009 (191 pages). This report provides key research for the NZ Cycle Trail Project. I was one of the report s authors. I also reviewed the NZ Cycle Trail Design Guidelines, from Benchmarking the 5 NZ Cycle Trail feasibility studies that Tourism Resource Consultants undertook in 2010/11, with the actual market numbers in A comparative analysis of current and past use of the Otago Central Rail Trail and the key influences on these markets. A review of the Hump Ridge Track in Southland and the subsequent decline in market numbers. An analysis of what effect the available business support services, or lack of them, make on cycleways. These services include cafes, accommodation, transport, bike shops and guiding services. A review of the Around the Mountains Cycle Trail, Feasibility Study and Business Case Development Report, December A field assessment of the two ATMCT trail options (Upper Oreti Valley and Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River route) in June Collaboration with David Stimpson of Stimpson & Co., who undertook an independent assessment of economic impacts of the ATMCT route options (June 2014). A review of the public submissions for the second stage of the ATMCT. A review of the Southland District Council staff reports for the ATMCT resource consent application. Preparation of my evidence. THE AROUND THE MOUNTAINS CYCLE TRAIL 23. The ATMCT is 200kms long and goes from Walter Peak Station on Lake Wakitipu to Kingston via the Von Valley, the lower Oreti Valley, to the Lumsden Highway and then to Kingston. The route, with the exception of the Upper Oreti Valley section, was consented in There are now two options for the un-consented section. These are a new aligned trail in the Upper Oreti Valley of 28km of trail and a route of about 36km besides the Mavora River (see the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 10/11, section 2.3). 25. The potential use by cyclists for each of these two sections has been assessed and projected usage estimated. THE NEW ZEALAND TOURISM MARKET In the year ending 2012, domestic tourism in New Zealand accounted for 31.1 million day trips, 16.6 million overnight trips and a total of 49.8 million nights stayed. Compared to the previous year (2011), these numbers declined by 4%, 6% and 3% respectively. 1 Key data detailed in the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 12 onwards 4 Page

5 The main purpose of visit for domestic visitors is a holiday, followed by visiting friends and relatives. The average spend per day trip is NZ$118, the average spend per overnight trip is NZ$372 and the average spend per night is NZ$ In , there were 2,752,257 international visitors, an annual increase of 5%. 28. In 2012, the economic contribution to the NZ economy from domestic tourism was NZ$14.2 billion, and from international tourism NZ$9.8 million. 29. Queenstown continues to be a key NZ tourism destination with nearly 1.9 million international guest nights, and 966,546 domestic guest nights in These numbers grew by over 10% for the international visitors and over 5% for domestic in New Zealand tourism continues to grow 2 with international and domestic tourism growing at 5% internationally and 3% domestically. 31. International tourism expenditure increased by 7.4% last year 3. NZ CYCLING MARKET 32. There is little recent detailed cycle use data for New Zealand. 33. The latest (2007/08) SPARC survey estimates that over 22% of the NZ adult population participated in cycling. 34. In 2009, the NZ Cycle Trail Project Nga Haeranga was developed. This project encompasses 22 great rides ( and is based on the Otago Central Rail Trail. 35. The ATMCT is one of NZ s Cycle Trail - Nga Haeranga s 22 trails. 36. An initial assessment of use of four of these trails over the summer indicates that the Motu trail received 2,740 users, the Mountains to Sea trail received 7,876 users, the Queenstown Trail received 99,566 users and the Hauraki Trail received 21,173 users (see the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 20). 37. The well-established Otago Central Rail Trail received an estimated 12,000 multi-day users, and over 48,000 day users in 2012 (see the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 20). 38. In a 2011 survey, the Otago Central Rail Trail has been estimated to bring NZ$12.2 million into the local economy in 2011, up NZ$5 million from The survey also indicated that the Otago Central Rail Trail generated 121 full time equivalent jobs. The per person expenditure increased to NZ$582 a person. (see the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 27) 2 N.Z Tourism Satellite Accounts from Statistics NZ, August ibid 5 Page

6 THE TWO ALTERNATIVE TRAIL ROUTES 39. There are two main options proposed by the Southland District Council for completing the final ATMCT route. They are: a route in the Upper Oreti Valley and the alternative, a route besides the Mavora Lakes Road and the Mararoa River. THE UPPER ORETI VALLEY ROUTE 40. The proposed Upper Oreti Valley section passes through the Eyre Mountains Conservation Park on an unformed legal road. Whilst 4-wheel drive vehicles can access the full length of the proposed Upper Oreti Valley section of the cycleway, there is currently no road access. The area is predominantly used by guided fishers who access the river from the Oreti Bridge on the Mt. Nicholas Road, or from the Three Kings Car Park off the Centre Hill Road. 41. From the Oreti Road end, the proposed cycle trail follows the western side of the valley until it crosses the river about 10kms below the Mt Nicholas Road car park near the Upper Oreti Bridge. Except for the trail crossing the Oreti River by bridge at this 10km point, the trail only comes in close contact with the environs of the Oreti River 6 times, including the car park by the Oreti River Bridge on the Mount Nicholas Road on an unformed legal road, and the cycle trail bridge crossing the Oreti River. From this point the cycle trail runs parallel to Landcorp Farming, Centre Hill Block The Upper Oreti Valley section of the ATMCT is arguably the most scenic section of the ATMCT. It has high Alpine scenic value. THE MAVORA LAKES ROAD ROUTE 43. The route besides the Mavora Lakes Road and the Mararoa River (detailed in the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, section 2.3) is about 33kms in length (the Centre Hill Road to the Oreti Bridge at the Mt. Nicholas Road to the Oreti river access road). This route is about 5kms longer than the Upper Oreti Valley trail. 44. The option includes 14.5kms of proposed trail that is next to the Centre Hill Road and then the Mavora Lakes Road until it leaves the Mavora Lakes Road and follows the Mararoa River. 45. This upper section to near the road turn-off to the Mavora Lakes is surrounded by the Snowden Forest Park. 46. It is noted that Fish & Game NZ have proposed an alternative trail in the lower section (14.5kms) that would be away from the Mavora Lakes Road. This option was not part of our assessment. OBSERVATIONS ON THE TWO ROUTE OPTIONS 47. In assessing the potential market demand for either trail option described 4 Author s observations June Page

7 above, the following observations and assumptions are made. About 4,000 recreationalists camp during the summer at Mavora Lakes recreational area. These campers plus the day visitors, with a few exceptions, use the Centre Hill Road Mavora Lakes Road to access the Mavora Lakes recreational area. The cycle users of the proposed route besides the Mavora Lakes Road and the Mararoa River would be passed by at least 3,500 5 vehicles over the summer period 6. This is the same time as the potential high use period of the ATMCT. For cyclists of any volume to use either the Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River option or the Upper Oreti Valley option, accommodation in the vicinity of the Mt. Nicholas Road and Oreti River Bridge is essential. This accommodation needs to have a minimum of beds, linen and meals, but preferably a similar (2-4 star) standard that is found on the first two days of the ATMCT or on the Otago Central Rail Trail. Without accommodation in place in the vicinity of the Upper Oreti Valley, the ATMCT will, most likely, not succeed in getting strong visitation. This accommodation issue is potentially a tipping point for the success of the ATMCT. Without accommodation investment (potentially NZ$3-5 million), the market demand for the trail will struggle to become viable. There is considerable evidence from the NZ Cycle Trails research that cyclists avoid cycle trails in New Zealand that include road sections with moderate vehicle use (e.g. over 20 cars a day) and dust/hazard issues. Examples include: the Mountains to Sea cycle trail (Raetihi to the Mangapura, and the road from Pipiriki to Wanganui) and the Te Ara Ahi Trail near Rotorua. Using the proposed section of roads from the Centre Hill Road and the Mavora Lakes Road to the proposed turn-off in to the river section would not be the high quality cycle experience for the tourism market that the ATMCT is aiming for. Where walking/cycling trails are poorly conceived and built (e.g. the Hump Ridge Track, see the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, p ), visitor use can be seriously affected. Day use of the ATMCT could potentially be very high. Day use by cyclists and walkers on other quality, short (1-4 hour) sections of other NZ cycleways (e.g. Queenstown Trails, Lake Taupo Trails and the Otago Central Rail Trail) is popular. The ATMCT could provide 3-4 excellent short day trips either for cyclists or walkers. These include: o Mavora Lakes Saddle to Mt Nicholas Station o Upper Oreti Bridge down the Oreti Valley through the Eyre Mountains Conservative Park to Centre Hill area o Kingston to Athol o Athol to Five Rivers o Fiver Rivers to Lumsden 5 DOC estimates Queenstown Greg Lind Summer period being Christmas to February 8 to 10 weeks 7 Page

8 There is the potential for sports or adventure events to be created on the ATMCT, for example fun runs, cycle events. The estimates for use of the proposed ATMCT assume that the excellent construction standards that have been applied to the first sections of the ATMCT from Kingston to Mossburn and beyond will be applied for either the Upper Oreti Valley section or the Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River section. For the estimates of cycling and walking use of the ATMCT to be realized, it will be essential that tourism continues to grow, and facilities and services such as transport, accommodation, cafes and bike support and marketing are in place to support the ATMCT. Estimating visitor use of proposed tourism attractions is challenging. Examples of these difficulties include estimating visitor use of museums (e.g. Napier Museum). The following estimates are on the conservative side. ESTIMATES FOR FUTURE ATMCT USE 48. Based on my potential demand analysis of ATMCT use and the current construction design standards of the ATMCT, estimates for future use of the trail are outlined in Table 1 below. Table 1 shows both pessimistic (low) and realistic (high) range estimates of annual cycle trail usage for both route options by year five. The data is segmented into single-day and multi-day trips and domestic and international users. The Upper Oreti Valley Route is estimated to achieve 7,000 12,000 multi-day cyclists. The lesser standard of route besides the Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River is estimated to reduce multi-day cyclists by approximately 40% to 4,000-7,000 multi-day cyclists. Table 1 Annual cycle trips projection for year 5 7 Revised Upper Oreti Valley route Mavora Lakes Road- Mararoa River route Pessimistic Realistic Pessimistic Realistic Cycling Multi-day trip Domestic 5,250 9,000 3,000 5,125 International 1,750 3,000 1,000 1,875 Total cycle multi day trips 7,000 12,000 4,000 7,000 Cycling- Day trip Domestic 17,500 35,000 20,000 30,000 International 12,500 15,000 10,000 10,000 Total cycle day trips 30,000 50,000 30,000 40,000 TOTAL multi-day and day trips 37,000 62,000 34,000 47, In summary, I estimate that there will realistically be 62,000 cyclists/walkers on the Upper Oreti Valley route by year 5, and realistically 47,000 cyclists/walkers on the Mavora Lakes Road route by year 5. This could consist of 12,000 multi-day users and another 50,000 day users spread over several sections of the Upper Oreti Valley route from Mt Nicholas to Kingston. 7 Adapted from the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, page 31, table 10 8 Page

9 50. Table 2 below shows expected multi-day cycle trips would consist of four (40%), five (50%) or six (10%) day trips. It is further assumed that an additional day is spent in the Southland/Otago region both before and after the cycle trip itself. Multi-day trips are therefore assumed to incur around a one-week total stay in the region. 51. Total annual multi-day cyclist/walkers days staying in the region, including these extra days, by year five are estimated by David Stimpson, based on TRC Tourism estimates, to range from 46,900 to 80,400 visitors for the Upper Oreti Valley and 26,800 to 46,900 visitors for the Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River route. The total multi-day and day-trip person days are estimated to range from 76, ,000 visitors for the Upper Oreti Valley and 56,800 to 86,900 visitors for the Mavora Lakes Road and Mararoa River route. Table 2 Multi-day cycle trip person days projection for year 5 Total trip days Pre & post ride days: 2 Revised Upper Oreti Valley route Mavora Lakes Road Mararoa River route Ride length options: Pessimistic Realistic Pessimistic Realistic 4, 5 & 6 days Total trip days 6 40% 40% 40% 40% 7 50% 50% 50% 50% 8 10% 10% 10% 10% Cycling - Multi-day person days, year 5 Domestic 35,175 60,300 20,100 34,338 International 11,725 20,100 6,700 12,563 Total cycle multi-day trips 46,900 80,400 26,800 46,900 Cycling day-trip person 30,000 50,000 30,000 40,000 days, year 5 TOTAL day-trip and multday trip person days, year 5 76, ,000 56,800 86,900 Source: Stimpson and Co, Assessment of economic impacts of Around the Mountains Cycle Trail route options, draft version, 25 June 2014, with adaptions RESPONSE TO SUBMISSIONS 52. I have read over 20 detailed submissions and the Southland District Council s summary of submissions. I respond below to the concerns by specific submitters. I do note that many submitters support the view that the Upper Oreti Valley is a better cycle route. ESTIMATES FOR POTENTIAL USE OF THE ATMCT 53. Several submitters have disputed my estimates for the cycle use of the two proposed ATMCT sections. These being the Upper Oreti Valley route and the Mavora Lakes Road Mararoa River route. These submitters include Dean Bell (81), Robert & Jana Bowler (101), Frank Yardley (51), Fish & Game (102), Dr Martin Lourey (89), Alan Petries submission on behalf of the Wyndham Angling Club (27), Nathaniel Wilcox (11), Ian Cole (84), NZ Federation of Freshwater Anglers (99), Anthony Stevens (110), Silvio Caldelari (115), Lawton Weber (132) and Lisa Weber (153). I address several submissions below individually as these specifically highlight concern by submitters on my ATMCT report. 54. There has been confusion by some people as to my estimate of cyclists, 9 Page

10 cyclist days and cycle trips. As set out in Table 1 above, the realistic projected numbers of annual cycle trips is 62,000. These 62,000 are made up of 12,000 multi-day cyclists and 50,000 day cyclists/walkers. These are the projected numbers that should be used for the ATMCT. The estimate in Table 2 above is for total days ( person days ) staying in the area for the cycle trip, and this is used by Stimpson for calculating expenditure by trail users. For purposes of calculating economic impacts, it is important to distinguish between trips and person days. A trip is a visit to the area and differs from person days, which is the total of days the person is cycling on the ATMCT. These estimates (Table 2) include all multi-day riders, plus an additional two days pre and post ride, in the region. As a result of this, the projected estimates for cycling/walking days is from 46,900 multi-day users person days to 80,400 multi-day user person days in the region. This is in addition to the 30,000-50,000 person days arising from day users of the trail. These figures are different from the Around the Mountains Cycle Trail, Feasibility Study and Business Case Development Report, December 2009 that predicts 29,500 multi-day and day users. That report (p61) notes that there would be 14,000 multi-day cyclists, 14,000 day cyclists and 1,500 guided cyclists by year The TRC Tourism report of 2014 projects a lower realistic estimate for multiday use - 12,000 multi-day users instead of 15,500 multi-day users forecasted in the 2009 feasibility study. The TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014 projects a significantly higher use of the trail options by day cyclists and walkers of up to 50,000 day users for the Upper Oreti Valley option. This use would be spread over the several sections from Mt Nicholas Station to Kingston. This estimate is for all of the trail and not just the Upper Oreti Bridge to the Centre Hill area section. These day use estimates reflect the considerable growth of day users on other NZ Cycle trails over the last 5 years. For example, the 48,000 annual day users of the Otago Central Rail Trail noted on page 26 of the TRC Tourism report, and the 99,000 annual users of the Queenstown trails noted on page 18 of the same report are indicative of growing demand by day users. This demand by cyclists for day trips will likely be reflected in day use of sections of the ATMCT. 56. Southland Fish & Game raise the idea that it is unclear whether the cycling market is large enough to sustain the numbers of projected users, particularly in light of the number of accessible cycle trails in the Otago region directly competing for customers, including: Alps to Ocean Cycleway (North Otago), the Queenstown Trail (Central Otago), Clutha Gold Trail (Central Otago) and Otago Central Rail Trail. I do believe that New Zealand, including the South Island, is in serious danger of having an oversupply of multi day cycle trails. It is not just an oversupply of cycle trails, but trails that are not fitting with market expectations. Some sections of the Alps to Ocean, the Mountains to Sea (Central North Island) and the Te Ara Ahi (Rotorua) trails have sections that are not appealing to the tourism cycling market. The oversupply of trails will soften the market for some already established trails. An example is the flattening use on the Otago Central Rail Trail. For the ATMCT to be successful, all of the attributes of a successful trail will need to be in place, including: trail standards; majestic scenery and support services including accommodation, transport, cafes, interpretation/ 10 Page

11 information on the trail; excellent marketing; continued market demand and community support. I do believe that the ATMCT via the Upper Oreti Valley route has the potential to be successful. 57. I will now address specific concerns raised by submitters. TOTAL MARKET DEMAND 58. Bell, on page 2, 2 nd paragraph of his evidence, comments for the applicant to project 60,000 cyclists annually is simply a figure grasped from fresh air. Frank Yardley submits on page 2, paragraph 3 of his submission that there are heroic assumptions not validated by any clear evidence that the Oreti route would hugely inflate the visitor numbers and hereby the benefits to the local economy. As I noted in my report, the TRC Tourism ATMCT Potential Market Demand report, June 2014, and noted above in paragraphs 48-50, the projected numbers are a 5 year projection once the trail is established, and are a combination of overnight full trail rides, and day users. I stand by these demand estimates. RELATIVE DEMAND FOR THE UPPER ORETI VALLEY AND THE MAVORA LAKES ROAD MARAROA RIVER ROUTES 59. Dr Martin Lourey on page 6 of his evidence (point 5.8, line 35) comments that the proposed reduction of cyclists on the Mavora route (estimated at 40%) is arbitrary. These numbers are not grasped from fresh air but constructed after a careful analysis of a wide variety of data, benchmarking and a thorough understanding of the market demand and estimates for New Zealand cycle trails. For estimating market demand for the ATMCT, I used the following methodology: Assessed the ATMCT and its qualities, e.g. length, grade, landscape and proposed governance and maintenance as at June Researched the level of use of similar trails, e.g. Otago Central Rail Trail, the Queenstown Trails and the NZ Cycle Trails. Assessed national and international cycling trend data. Reviewed the accuracy and sources of the data. Reviewed the potential supply of new trails or competing products. Assessed the support services available or required for the ATMCT, e.g. transport, car parking, accommodation, cafes, bike services. Assessed environmental factors, e.g. weather conditions and seasonality factors. Assessed pricing factors, e.g. costs to reach the ATMCT. Analysed all the above factors and prepared pessimistic and realistic projections. These projections were then peer reviewed and finalized. I have used a similar approach over the last twenty-five years for estimating market demand for many New Zealand tourism products, including demand predictions for Zealandia and many adventure tourism businesses including five of the NZ Cycle Trails. 11 Page

12 Robert & Jana Bowler in their submission, page 3, line 13/14 comment The idea that the usage would be 40% less if re-routed to the Mavora instead of down the Oreti is blatantly incorrect. And whilst the Fish & Game submission does not query the accuracy of the total demand figures for the ATMCT Oreti option, they do query on page 18, 5.21 onwards first paragraph The modelled economic differences between the Upper Oreti Valley and Upper Mararoa Valley routes appear solely attributable to the assumed 42% - 43% reduction of usage for the Upper Mararoa Valley route for multi day cyclists. Further it is not clear from these numbers if usage has been determined. 60. And Fish & Game comments on page 31, point 1 that The applicant assumes that a small perturbation to cyclists amenity, principally to multi-day cyclist amenity, will have a significant impact on usage, principally due to 14km of rural road riding and associated dust issues. This assumption is: a) Questionable in the light of the fact that significant portions of the consented ATMCR share the same flaw, i.e. they require: i. Riding on a gravelled rural road, namely the Mt Nicholas Road from Walter Peak Station to the upper Oreti River which requires a climb out of the Von valley; and ii. Riding on a formed cycle trail in very close proximity to major roads with associated traffic usage, including the Lumsden to Mossburn Highway from Mossburn to Lumsden and the Lumsden to Kingston Highway for significant sections from Lumsden to Kingston. b) Inconsistent with the statement in its economic assessment that Owners of the TSS Earnslaw note that last year (2013) around 1,000 cyclists used the TSS Earnslaw to access Mount Nicholas and then ride to Te Anau via the Mavora Lakes. Similarly, the original consent application by the applicant noted the significant number of international cyclists (1,000) riding from Walter Peak Station on the Mt Nicholas Road to Lake Mavora and onto Te Anau/ Southland. Presumably, such cyclists, 1,000 per year, are riding onto Te Anau via the Mt Nicholas, Mavora Lakes and Centre Hill Roads given the absence of alternative cycle routes in the area, which suggest that riding on a rural road does not pose the impediment suggested by the applicant. 61. In response to submissions discussed above (point 60), I note that the Mt Nicholas Road to the Upper Oreti River is a gravel road. However, this road has very limited vehicle use between Mavora Lakes and Lake Wakitipu. This traffic is confined to mainly farm and station vehicles, and is estimated at 6-10 vehicles a day over the year Fish & Game s comment in point 61 above that ATMCT cyclists are riding on a formed trail in close proximity to major roads near Lumsden is correct. However, the major difference is that the Mossburn to Lumsden road is tar sealed and the trail is set back from the highway. 63. The Fish & Game comment (point 60) regarding around 1,000 cyclists a year cycling from Mount Nicholas to Te Anau that is inconsistent with my prediction that some ATMCT cyclists will not wish to use the Mavora Lakes Road route if 8 Source: Mike Barnett after discussions with the managers of Walter Peak and Mount Nicholas Stations, Page

13 much of the trail is next to the road, is incorrect. The current cyclists who are using this section from Otago to Southland - are long distance, multi-day, independent and self supported cyclists who expect and are used to these road conditions. They are a very different cycle market than the potential ATMCT cyclists. 64. Fish & Game also assume (page 12, 5.12, point 2) that there will be 62,000 cyclists riding through the Upper Oreti Valley within 5 years. My report does not say this. It details a possible 12,000 multi-day users, and up to 50,000 day users spread over several sections. Above in paragraph 47, point 7, I noted: Day use of the ATMCT could potentially be very high. Day use by cyclists and walkers on other quality, short (1-4 hour) sections of other NZ cycleways (e.g. Queenstown Trails, Lake Taupo Trails and the Otago Central Rail Trail) is popular. The ATMCT could provide 4-5 excellent short day trips either for cyclists or walkers. These include: Mavora Lakes Saddle to Mt Nicholas Station Upper Oreti Bridge down the Oreti Valley through the Eyre Mountains Conservative Park to Centre Hill area Kingston to Athol Athol to Five Rivers Fiver Rivers to Lumsden 65. The lack of a breakdown of use of the Upper ATMCT on a daily, weekly, monthly basis is raised by Fish & Game (15.15). I estimate that the main use will be in summer with high season being January, February, March and possibly early April. If there were 12,000 annual multi-day cyclists plus 4,000 day users, this would result in 16,000 total users of the Upper Oreti section (from the Mt Nicholas Road Oreti River car park). Therefore over 200 days, this could average 80 cyclists a day, not 250 bikes/cyclists as noted in the Fish & Game submission (point 5.15). It is possible that on peak days, usage could double the average daily use. That is up to 160 cyclists a day. Peak periods are likely to be at Christmas, in early February and at Easter each year. CAR PARKING AND TRANSPORTATION OF CYCLISTS TO THE UPER ORETI VALLEY 66. Fish & Game s submission (5.15 & 5.16) expresses the view that there will be insufficient car parking at the Mt Nicholson road entrance to the Upper Oreti Valley cycle way. They assume that there will be 50,000 day cyclists. This assumption is incorrect. As I mentioned above in point 48, the 50,000 day users by year 5 are for the full length of the ATMCT via the Upper Oreti Valley route, not the Upper Oreti bridge to the Centre Hill area. 67. As the ATMCT becomes established and service providers and facilities including accommodation and transporters become established, cycling trends will become clear. This will then form the basis of the need for more car parking. 68. It is very likely that, as is the case on many other NZ cycle trails including the Otago Central Rail Trail, the Timber Trail and the Great Lake Taupo Trail, day cyclists will leave their vehicles at an agreed central location e.g. 13 Page

14 Queenstown, or Mossburn, and be dropped off and picked up for a section of the ATMCT. Usually, cycle transporters carry up to 12 persons and their bikes. This then influences the size of car parks. The transporters will only be on site at the drop off area for up to half an hour. For the pick ups, the waiting time at the car park could be longer. ANGLER CYCLIST ENCOUNTER RATES 69. Fish & Game submit in 5.12 that the rates of anglers encountering cyclists are not addressed. This is correct. With the proposed Upper Oreti cycle route parallel to the river, it only crosses it once and comes into close contact (50m metres) 6 times. This includes the Oreti River Bridge on the Mt Nicholas Road. This means that there will be few encounters over this 28-kilometre section. The bridge crossing the Oreti River is the most likely location where fishers meet cyclists. 70. The development of a cyclist code of practice for meeting fishers and the etiquette required would be desirable. Fishers have established etiquette and developing a fishers and cycling etiquette to educate cyclists and other recreationalists would be straightforward (e.g. not swimming in the river near fishers, allowing up to 20 metres if walking past a fisher, avoid being on the river banks directly above or below the angler). I note that the 42A report recommends a similar code of practice UNSEALED ROADS AND DUST 71. Dr Martin Lourey (89) has submitted that the impact of dust on roads for cyclists is not known. There is no detailed relevant research on the impact of unsealed roads, or dust on cycle trails that use unsealed roads, or are next to main highways to my knowledge There is evidence that cycle use of cycle trails using road sections that have moderate vehicle use over 20 cars a day- is considerably lower for these sections than the trail sections not on roads. Examples of this include the Mountains to Sea Cycle Trail which receives over 3,000 users on the Mangapura to Bridge to Nowhere section, but on the road sections before and after (Raetihi to Mangapura and Pipiriki to Wanganui) the cycle use is less than 500 cyclists a year. 9 RESPONSE TO THE HIGH LEVEL PEER REVIEW (VISITOR SOLUTIONS) OF THE TRC TOURISM MARKET DEMAND STUDY FOR THE ATMCT 72. Projected day use numbers The reviewer believes (p13, point 1) that the overall numbers of cyclists using the Upper Mararoa or Oreti trail sections will be considerably lower than the levels indicated in the reviewed reports. 73. In my June 2014 ATMCT report, I estimate that realistic projections of numbers for annual cycle trips by year 5 are 62,000 trips. These 62,000 cycle trips are made up of 12,000 multi-day cyclists and 50,000 day cyclists/walkers for the proposed ATMCT, when using the Upper Oreti Valley. The number of 50,000 day users is made up of those using various sections, e.g.: Mavora Lakes Saddle to Mt Nicholas Station 9 Author s research 14 Page

15 Upper Oreti Bridge down the Oreti Valley through the Eyre Mountains Conservative Park to Centre Hill area Kingston to Athol Athol to Five Rivers Fiver Rivers to Lumsden This is also covered earlier in my evidence (point 64). 74. The reviewer comments (page 7) that day use of various sections from the Walter Peak/Mt Nicholas end of the ATMCT would be highly unlikely. I disagree it is highly possible that a transport provider is established near the Walter Peak/Mt Nicholas Stations and provides a daily bike shuttle service for day users of the Upper Oreti Valley section. This is commercially realistic proposition for the summer period. The transport providers for the Tongariro Alpine Crossing in the Central North Island assist in transporting up to 70,000 day walkers a year from surrounding towns/villages (Taupo, the main hub is about an hour away). 75. The reviewer doubts my estimate of 48,000 day users of the Otago Central Rail Trail. There is significant data and knowledge to indicate this is a conservative figure. This is based on: The Otago Central Rail Trail having 3-4 popular short rides (the reviewer mentions this): o Clyde to Alexandra o Alexandra to Chatto Creek o Lauder to Oturehua (Poolburn Gorge) o Kokanga to Hyde 76. Accurate data from Otago Central Rail Trail DOC counters 2009/10 (P.26, TRC Tourism Report) indicate that the popular Lauder to Oturehua (Poolburn Gorge) section had 12,000 day users in addition to the 12,000 whole trail users. Use of the 3 other popular sections 10 and other less used sections, would make up 48,000 day users. 77. According to Tamsyn Parker 11, estimates for day use of the Otago Central Rail Trail is up to 80,000 further (mostly local) users of part sections. 78. Mr Mike Barnett 12, previous owner of Trail Journeys, a major cycle provider, estimates day use being 4-6 times the whole journey use (48-72,000 day users). 79. My 48,000 annual day use figure for the Otago Central Rail Trail is a good basis for a comparative assessment for the ATMCT. 80. Multi-day cyclist displacement (P10) The reviewer talks about displacement of cyclists from one trail option to another. The issue is not displacement it is the attractiveness of one option compared to the other. 81. I assessed the Mararoa option as described by the Southland District Council. 10 Personal communications with Geoff Gabites, General Manager Adventure South, Dec Parker, Tamsyn (23 March 2009), Why Key s national bike track could be paved with gold, The New Zealand Herald 12 Personal communications Mike Barnett, Dec Page

16 I have not assessed variations on the Mararoa option including re-routing. 82. I have looked at the Upper Oreti valley option and consider this option to be the far superior route. It is the potential jewel in the crown for the ATMCT. This assessment is based on 30 years of professional experience in this same discipline. I am comfortable with my estimates. 83. It is possible that the multi-day use of the ATMCT via the Mararoa option could be as high as 8,000 multi day users, or a lot lower. A key factor, is the development, presumably by the private sector, of appropriate 2-3 star accommodation in the Upper Oreti Bridge area. RESPONSE TO MR ROY s THE SOUTHLAND DISTRICT COUNCIL S PLANNING REPORT TO THE JOINT HEARING COMMISSIONER, MR DENIS NUGENT 84. Mr Roy asks (on page 44) for clarification of the number of predicted day users per annum for the Upper Oreti portion of the trail as opposed to day users on the whole trail if the Upper Oreti route is constructed. 85. I have addressed this estimate in paragraph 65 above and believe that 4,000 day users a year of the Upper Oreti section, by year 5 of construction, is realistic. This would result in potential peak usage in one day of up to 160 cyclists of this section. 86. I also believe that if the Mavora River route option was used, the attractiveness of the whole ATMCT would decline and this would affect the potential use of all of the ATMCT. MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF CYCLISTS ON FISHERS IN THE UPPER ORETI VALLEY 87. Given that there is most likely to be opportunities for cyclists to encounter fishers on or in the Upper Oreti River, developing a code of practice for recreationalists in the Upper Oreti Valley would be desirable. This could be achieved by establishing an ATMCT Recreational Liaison Group. This group could consist of representatives from: the NZ Fish & Game Council, NZ Cycleway Trail, the Southland District Council and the Federated Mountain Clubs of NZ. They could meet prior to trail construction and then 6-monthly. The ATMCT Recreational Liaison Group could seek to develop and distribute an agreed code of practice, and to seek solutions to any user issues. 88. The applicant could provide relevant recreational information on river access, fisher s preference for minimizing cyclists impact on the fishing amenity values and land access. CONCLUSIONS 89. I believe that there is the potential for the ATMCT to be a very successful New Zealand multi day tourism product. 90. I believe that the ATMCT development to date is of an excellent standard, and is at the best practice for the NZ Cycle trail project. The trail so far is highly appropriate for the targeted markets noted in the original business plan of Page

17 91. I believe that the ATMCT using the Upper Oreti Valley route with the appropriate transport support services, accommodation and cafes and restaurants in place can receive up to 50,000 multi-day cyclists per year. 92. I believe that the ATMCT could receive up to an additional 50,000 day cyclists a year, by year 5. These cyclists would use a section of the ATMCT for cycling a few hours. There will be several options including, but not exclusive to: Mt Nicholas Station to Upper Oreti River bridge (50 km) Upper Oreti Bridge down the Oreti Valley to Centre Hill carpark (38km) Lumsden to Five Rivers (18km) Five Rivers to Athol (16km) Athol to Kingston (31km) 93. I believe that the use of these day rides or walks will be strongly influenced by the supporting services, such as bike transporters and cafes. It is likely that the sections between Lumsden and Kingston will initially be the most popular due to their location near the Queenstown-Invercargill highway. 94. I believe that a reasonable estimate for use of the trail from the Upper Oreti Bridge down the Oreti Valley to the Centre Hill car park is around 12,000 multi-day cyclists and 4,000 day cyclists a year, by year 5. I do believe that this section has the potential to be popular with day riders. This section is the Jewel in the Crown of the ATMCT. It encapsulates riding in a remote beautiful mountain area. 95. I believe that for the ATMCT to be successful the preferred route is via the Upper Oreti Valley. 96. The Mavora Lakes Road Mararoa River option, that includes a 14.5 kilometre section alongside the public road, would not be as appealing at the Upper Oreti Valley route option. The proposed trail is next to and parallel to a busy dusty road for 14.5km. This option is not appealing to the cycling tourism markets that are seeking trails that have excellent trail conditions, including few cars and no dust. Consequently, I estimate that if the Mavora Lakes Road Mararoa River option is used, the use of the ATMCT would be significantly lower than the preferred route in the Upper Oreti Valley. Multiday cycling numbers could be reduced by up to a half. 97. I estimate the potential use of the ATMCT via the Mavora Lakes Road option at 7,000 multi-day cyclists a year, compared to 12,000 multi-day cyclists via the Upper Oreti Valley. 98. For either route option, the development of 2-3 star cyclist accommodation in the Upper Oreti Valley Upper Von Valley, along with good marketing, transport, cafes and support services, will be essential for creating viable cycling numbers for the ATMCT to be successful. Dave Bamford 17 Page