Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector. Bruno Luis de Carvalho da Costa* and Fabiene Cristina de Carvalho da Costa

Transcription

1 80 Int. J. Aviation Management, Vol. 2, Nos. 1/2, 2013 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector Bruno Luis de Carvalho da Costa* and Fabiene Cristina de Carvalho da Costa Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos, 149, Bloco B, sala 101 Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro RJ, , Brazil *Corresponding author Abstract: Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympic Games in 2016 within the context of sustainable games, already established by the Summer Olympic Games in London, Thus, it is necessary further studies on the environmental impacts of the sectors related to these events. One of the main sectors is transport. The transportation sector is the biggest consumer of liquid fuels, with more than 50% of world consumption and it uses almost 20% of the world s total delivered energy. Given the continental dimensions of Brazil, much of the transportation will be through civil aviation. Thus, this study aims to account for current emissions of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) of the top airlines operating in the Brazilian domestic and international markets to create a characterisation factor of the sector in order to propose mitigation actions of these emissions. It will be used the methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, using the following data: number and type of aircraft, length and number of flight stage. Keywords: CO 2 emissions; air transportation sector; environment; Brazil. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: de Carvalho da Costa, B.L. and de Carvalho da Costa, F.C. (2013) Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector, Int. J. Aviation Management, Vol. 2, Nos. 1/2, pp Biographical notes: Bruno Luis de Carvalho da Costa is an Architect/Urban Designer and MSc in Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He is the owner of Métopa Architecture and Planning, he develops architectural and urban designs guided by the concepts of sustainable development. His main research interest lies in the field of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions by the Transportation and the construction sectors. Fabiene Cristina de Carvalho da Costa is a Civil Engineer and MSc in Transport Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. She is currently working at an airport operator in Brazil. Her main research interest lies in the fields of public transportation and air transportation. Copyright 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

2 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector 81 This paper is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector presented at the 2011 Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) Conference, Sydney, Australia, 29 June 2011 to 2 July Introduction Internal combustion engines powered by petroleum fuels, which represents 95% of the 83 EJ of total transport energy used in 2004, mainly drive transportation activity. It has been increasing around the world especially in many areas of the developing countries. Therefore the growth in petroleum use is closely related to the growth in transportation activity (IPCC, 2007). Transport energy accounted for 26% of total world energy use in In developing countries, transport energy use is rising faster than in developed countries, between 3 and 5% per year and it will probably grow from 31% (in 2002) to 43% of world total transport energy use by 2025 (IPCC, 2007). In general, transport activity is expected to grow substantially over the next decades, especially because in the developing world, as incomes grow and the value of travellers time increases, travellers are expected to choose faster modes of transport, shifting from non-motorised to automotive, to air and high-speed rail (IPCC, 2007). Generally, increasing speed has led to greater energy intensity and higher greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), like CO 2. In Brazil, the demand for air travel in the domestic market grew by 16.43% in January 2011, compared with the same month in the previous year while in January 2010, it grew 31.6% over January Besides, the upcoming world events like the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympic Games in 2016 will direct more international flights to Brazil and also stimulate domestic growth, since many cities are not capable, in terms of capacity and quality, of accommodating in their hotels all the visitors who may wish to attend particularly well-subscribed matches (FIFA, 2007). Brazil is now publishing laws determining maximum GHG emissions for some sectors or forcing mitigation actions from great emitters. The transportation sector in Brazil accounts for more than 30% of the energy use in Brazil (EPE, 2010), and, therefore, it is a great emitter. The increase in GHG emissions has led to the (now evident from observations) increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 2007). Many actions have been taken to stop the increase of these gases (especially from CO 2 ), like carbon dioxide capture and storage, efficiency improvement in industrial facilities, among others. Many companies have established sustainable agendas and countries have published laws determining maximum GHG emissions and forcing mitigation actions. In Brazil, the upcoming world events are being used to establish mitigation actions from GHG emissions. However, it is first necessary to quantify these emissions. Thus, the main objective of this article is to estimate CO 2 emissions of the Brazilian civil air transportation sector in 2009, using well-established methodology, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2006).

3 82 B.L. de Carvalho da Costa and F.C. de Carvalho da Costar 2 Brazil s air transportation sector Table 1 summarises the main indicators of the civil air transportation sector in Brazil, in The domestic sector accounts for more than 95% of all flight stages (number of take-offs), with an average stage distance of 792 km. Table 1 Main indicators of the civil air transportation sector in Brazil, for the year 2009 Domestic % International % Total Aircraft hours (h) 1,134, , ,319,769.8 Aircraft kilometres performed (km) Speed flown (km/h) ,238.7 Seat-kilometres available 86, , ,690.0 Passenger-kilometres performed 58, , ,281.9 Passenger load factor (%) Revenue passenger kilometres 56, , ,384.9 Tonne-kilometres available 8, , ,546.6 Revenue tonne kilometres 4, , ,615.0 Freight tonne kilometres Flight stages 733, , ,485 stage distance (km) , ,349.2 Source: ANAC (2009) Twenty-one main companies composed the air transportation sector in 2009 (ANAC, 2009). Six of them (Avianca, Azul, Trip, Webjet, Gol and TAM) accounted for more than 98% of all passengers transported (as shown in Figure 1) and only Gol and TAM operated internationally in Figure 1 Number of passengers carried in 2009 of top six airlines in terms of passengers and of the 15 remaining main companies 15 other Avianca Azul Trip Webjet Gol TAM % of total passengers carried Millions of passengers carried Source: ANAC (2009), modified by the authors

4 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector 83 3 Methodology The 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories provides advice on estimation methods at three levels of detail, from tier 1 (the default method) to tier 3 (the most detailed method) to estimate CO 2 emissions. We have used a tier 3 method to estimate CO 2 emissions from air travel in Brazil, which does not use a default emission factor, but specific data from airlines/countries and a series of mathematical equations. This way it is possible to estimate, for example, emissions generated by European airlines and ensure that comparisons with emissions generated by Brazilian airlines will be made using the same basis of calculation. The tier 3 methodology from IPCC (2006) is based on actual flight movement data (origin and destination data). Hence this methodology is bottom-up, flight-based, rather than top-down, based on the fuel consumed. The method takes into account cruise emissions for different flight distances. Details on the origin (departure) and destination (arrival) airports and aircraft type are needed to use this approach, for both domestic and international flights. Inventories are modelled using average fuel consumption and emissions data for the flight stage (landing and take-off phase -LTO- and various cruise phase lengths), for an array of representative aircraft categories. The data used here recognises that the amount of emissions generated varies between phases of flight and that it is related to flight distance, while recognising that fuel burn can be comparably higher on relatively short distances than on longer routes. This is because aircraft use a higher amount of fuel per distance for the LTO cycle compared to the cruise phase. EMEP/EEA Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook 2009 (EEA) provides a spreadsheet that contains fuel consumptions data for various distances and aircrafts models. It is based on simulation of LTO and cruise emission factors made by MEET (1997) and ANCAT (1998) on the original data provided by ICAO Engine Exhaust Emissions Data Bank (ICAO, 2004) and has been the source of fuel consumption by aircraft on this article. Since the fuel consumption is directly related to the number of flight stages and distance flown by aircraft model and airline in the domestic and international market, we have also used data provided by the National Agency of Civil Aviation ANAC (2009) on these figures for the year 2009, as shown in Tables 2, 3 and 4. In this method we have the fuel consumption specified in kilograms while we need it in TJ in order to convert to tonnes of carbon (using the lower heating value and a fuel specific emission factor). Later the result is converted to gigagrams of CO 2, multiplying by 10-3 and by the ratio between the CO 2 mass and carbon mass (44/12).

5 84 B.L. de Carvalho da Costa and F.C. de Carvalho da Costar Table 2 Data of the domestic air traffic for the main airlines, in 2009 speed (km/h) Available seat kilometres Passengerkilometres transported Use (%) Flight stages (number of take-offs) stage distance (km) Avianca ,009 1, , Azul ,768 2, , Gol ,200 24, , TAM ,640 26, , Trip , , Webjet ,741 2, , Industry ,463 58, , Note: 1 Ratio between number of flight stages of an airline domestically and total flight stages of this airline. Source: ANAC (2009), modified by the authors Table 3 Data of the international air traffic for the main airlines, in 2009 speed (km/h) Available seat kilometres Passengerkilometres transported Use (%) Flight stages (number of take-offs) stage distance (km) Avianca Azul Gol ,145 2, ,721 1, TAM ,061 18, ,215 5, Trip Webjet Industry ,227 20, ,861 3, Note: 2 Ratio between number of flight stages of an airline internationally and total flight stages of this airline. Source: ANAC (2009), modified by the authors Table 4 Data of the domestic and international air traffic for the main airlines, in 2009 speed (km/h) Available seat kilometres Passengerkilometres transported Use (%) Flight stages (number of take-offs) stage distance (km) Avianca ,009 1, , Azul ,768 2, , Gol ,346 26, , TAM ,700 44, ,849 1, Trip , , Webjet ,741 2, , Industry ,690 78, , Note: 3 Ratio between total number of flight stages of an airline and total flight stages of the air sector. Source: ANAC (2009), modified by the authors % 1 % 2 % 3

6 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector 85 Since the data provided by ANAC (2009) does not specify which aircrafts travelled internationally, we have made an assumption, based on a relation between the quantity of flight stages (number of take-offs) per airline in the international market and the total quantity of flight stages per airline, so we could estimate the number of aircrafts operating internationally [equation (1)] and domestically [equation (2)]. QA int. FS airline,int. FS airline TQA airline ( ) QA = FS / FS TQA (1) int. airline,int. airline airline quantity of aircrafts operating internationally per airline quantity of flight stages (number of take-offs) per airline in the international market total quantity of flight stages per airline; total quantity of aircrafts per airline. QAdom. = TQAairline QAint. (2) QA dom. quantity of aircrafts operating nationally per airline TQA airline total quantity of aircrafts per airline QA int. quantity of aircrafts operating internationally per airline. For the number of flight stages per aircraft model per market (domestic or international) we have also made an assumption, based on a relation between aircraft quantity per model per market per airline and total aircraft quantity per airline per market, according to equation (3). ( ) FS = QA / TQA FS (3) aircraft,market model,market aircrafts market FS aircraft,market number of flight stages (number of take-offs) per aircraft model per market (domestic or international) QA model,market aircraft quantity per model per market TQA aircrafts,market total aircraft quantity per airline per market FS market total number of flight stages (number of take-offs) per airline per market. The CO 2 emissions per aircraft model are calculated using equation (4) for aircraft in the domestic and international sectors. Emissions CO2,aircraft = (FC LHV) ( ) (44 / 12) 9 3 (4)

7 86 B.L. de Carvalho da Costa and F.C. de Carvalho da Costar Emissions CO2 emissions of CO 2 per aircraft model (Gg CO 2 ) FC amount of fuel combusted (kg) LHV lower heating value (10,400 kcal/kg) conversion factor, from kcal to TJ (factor) 19.5 carbon content (tc/tj) 10 3 conversion factor, from tc to GgC (factor) 0.99 carbon oxidation factor (factor) 44/12 conversion factor from carbon to CO 2 (factor). For total CO 2 emissions per airline, we have used equation (5). Emissions = Emissions (5) Total,CO2 CO2,aircraft Emissions CO2 emissions of CO 2 per airline (Gg CO 2 ) Emissions CO2 emissions of CO 2 per aircraft model (Gg CO 2 ). To estimate CO 2 emissions per passenger in (kg/passenger), we have used equation (6). 6 Emissions CO2,passanger = (Emissions CO2 / AS total ) 10 [1 (1 OR / 100)] + (6) Emissions CO2,passenger emissions of CO 2 per passenger per aircraft model (kg CO 2 /passanger) Emissions CO2 emissions of CO 2 per airline (Gg CO 2 ) AS total total available seats per aircraft model 10 6 conversion factor, from gigagrams to kilograms (factor) OR occupancy rate of flight stages per airline per market. A summary of the data obtained and used for calculating CO 2 emissions is shown in Table 5.

8 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector 87 Table 5 Summary of the data obtained and used for calculating CO 2 emissions Aircraft model Aircraft quantity Operation % 1 Flight stages (number of take-offs) km flown per stage Fuel consump. (t/stage) Total CO 2 (GgCO 2 ) Avianca EMB Domestic , F Domestic , Azul EMB Domestic , EMB 95 5 Domestic , Gol Domestic , Domestic , Domestic , , International ,454 1, International ,268 1, TAM A Domestic , A Domestic , , Domestic , A Domestic , A Domestic , A International ,738 5, A International ,492 5, International ,984 5, , Trip EMB120ER 1 Domestic , ATR Domestic , ATR Domestic , ATR Domestic , ATR Domestic , ATR72-6 Domestic , A ERJ Domestic , Webjet Domestic , Note: 1 Ratio between the number of aircrafts of a specific aircraft model and the total quantity of aircrafts in a market Figure 2 shows the CO 2 emissions per passenger kilometre (PK) according to the market it serves (domestic or international).

9 88 B.L. de Carvalho da Costa and F.C. de Carvalho da Costar Figure 2 CO 2 emissions per passenger kilometre (PK) according to the market it serves Webjet Trip TAM Gol Azul Avianca Domestic gco2/pk International gco2/pk 4 Results and conclusions In order to carry 61,880,750 passengers, the top six airlines of the Brazilian civil aviation sector have emitted 9, Gg of CO 2, with an average of g of CO 2 per passenger kilometre carried, as shown in Table 6. For comparison purposes, Table 7 shows total CO 2 emissions and passenger carried by the top six airlines companies in Europe. The data from CO 2 emissions was obtained from RDC (2009), which used a different methodology, a top-down method from IPCC (2006). Table 6 Airline Summary of data obtained for the top six airlines of the Brazilian civil aviation sector Passengers carried Passenger kilometre (mill PK) Total CO 2 emissions (GgCO 2 ) g CO 2 / PK Avianca , Azul , Gol ,315 3, TAM ,430 5, Trip Webjet , Total top six ,668 9,

10 Emissions of greenhouse gases: Brazilian air transportation sector 89 Table 7 Summary of the data of top six airlines in Europe Airline Air France/KLM Passengers carried Passenger kilometre (mill PK) Total CO 2 emissions (GgCO 2 ) g CO 2 / PK ,744 26, British Airways ,371 18, easyjet ,566 7, Iberia ,612 8, Lufthansa ,511 19, Ryanair ,090 9, Total Top ,894 90, Source: RDC (2009) and airlines annual reports, modified by the authors Figure 3 shows total emissions of the top six Brazilian airlines (domestic and international markets). Figure 3 CO 2 emissions of top six Brazilian airlines from domestic and international markets 2,738GgCO 2 29% 6,737GgCO 2 71% Domestic International Even though Brazil is twice the size of European Union, the average emission factor per passenger kilometre is similar to the top six European airlines, although Brazil s load factor is lower than the European. Nevertheless there are many options to reduce these emissions. According to IPCC (2007) the reduction of emissions can be achieved, mainly, by promoting the fuel efficiency of civil aviation. A variety of means such as technology, operation and management of air traffic can improve it. Technology developments might offer a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency over 1997 levels by 2015 and the introduction of biofuels could reduce some of aviation s carbon emissions. Aircraft operations can be optimised for energy use by minimising taxing time, flying at optimal cruise altitudes, flying minimum-distance great-circle routes, and minimising holding and stacking around airports. The GHG-reduction potential of such strategies has been estimated at 6 12% (IPCC, 2007). Alternatively, Brazil can promote a compulsory reforestation programme to mitigate transport emissions. The continental dimensions of Brazil, and its biggest CO 2 emitter deforestation of native forest are a great opportunity to slow down climate change and promote greener transportation.

11 90 B.L. de Carvalho da Costa and F.C. de Carvalho da Costar References ANAC (2009) Yearbook of Air Transport: Statistics and Economic Data (in Portuguese: Anuário do Transporte Aéreo: Dados Estatísticos e Econômicos), Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil, 2nd ed., Brazil. ANCAT (1998) ANCAT/EC2 Global Aircraft Emission Inventories for 1991/1992 and 2015, Report by the ECAC/ANCAT and EC working group, in R. Gardner (Ed.), ISBN , EEA (2009) EMEP/EEA Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook 2009, European Environmental Agency, Technical report No 9/2009, Denmark. EPE (2010) Brazilian Energy Balance 2010: Year 2009, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. FIFA (2007) Inspection Report for the 2014 FIFA World Cup, Fédération Internationale de Football Association, Zurich, Switzerland. ICAO (2004) Engine Exhaust Emissions Data Bank, 1st ed. 1995, ICAO, Doc AN/943, updated in IPCC (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, in H.S. Eggleston, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara and K. Tanabe (Eds.): The National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave and L.A. Meyer (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 851pp. MEET (1997) Methodologies for Estimating Emissions from Air Traffic, Manfred T. Kalivoda and Monika Kudrna, MEET Deliverable No 18. RDC (2009) EU Aviation Emissions Report, RDC Aviation Ltd. Nottingham, UK.