Planning and Managing Demand for the Shooting Sports Industry in 2017 December 8, 2016 Presented by: Christopher DiCenso George Harris Growth Strategy Partners LLC
Today s Goals & Agenda Goal: Provide you with insights and tools to improve your sales and supply chain planning process Motivate you to take action Agenda: Define Current Situation Discuss Future Review Sales & Supply Chain Tools and Techniques Summarize 1
Your Presenters and Panelists Christopher DiCenso Managing Partner Growth Strategy Partners CDiCenso@GrowthStrategyPartners.com George Harris Director Growth Strategy Partners GeorgeIFC@aol.com Jim Curcuruto Director National Shooting Sports Foundation John MacLellan VP Sales and Marketing Mossberg Mike Halleron VP Business Development Chattanooga Shooting Supplies Renae Waltemath Director of Sales Hornady Manufacturing
Growth Strategy Partners A management consulting firm accelerating the revenue, profit and organizational growth of shooting industry companies by applying our research driven 7 Keys to Growth Research Tools Consultants Effective Growth Planning Right Seats with Right People Advanced Customer Management Robust Processes Differentiated Products and Services Strong Core Values Ability to Execute 3
The Current Situation How would you describe the current situation? Overall Demand Inventory Cash flow Politics Manufacturer Distributor Dealer Big Box 4
Our Estimates for the Future What do you think demand will look like in 2017 and beyond and why? Overall Category Geography Buyer segment Big box vs retailer 5
NSSF-Adjusted NICS YOY * Projected through Dec. 6
NSSF-Adjusted NICS Last 5 Years by Month 7
NSSF-Adjusted NICS Observations NSSF Adjusted NICS Year over Year: 2012 13,780,000 up 28% over 2011 2013 14,796,000 up 7% over 2012 2014 13,090,000 down 12% from 2013 2015 14,244,000 up 9% over 2014 2016~15,800,000 up 11% over 2015 5 year average up 14.6% Other indicators to consider. Excise tax collections Firearm production + import/export data Hunting license sales 8
Sales and Operations Planning Product/ Brand Plan Demand Forecast S&OP Marketing Plan Sales Plan Demand Management Demand Planning Supply Planning Production Resources Inventory Distribution Production Plan Facilities Planning Investment Targets Transportation Master Scheduling Detailed Planning and Scheduling Labor Planning Machine Planning Channel Distribution Shipment Plan Warehousing Labor and Equipment Source: APICS 9
Panel Q s: Building Your Sales Plan Describe how you build your sales plan? Where/how do you start? What timeframes do you plan in? (year, quarters, months, weeks?) What 3 things most influence your sales plan/demand? Do you specifically define or document your assumptions? In how much detail do you plan? (SKU, customer, geography, etc.? Is the sales plan built based on what you believe demand will be or what you want to sell? How often do you formally ask your customers on what they believe demand will be? 10
How Good Are Your Assumptions? 11
Tools: Documenting Your Assumptions Demand Overall demand will be equal to 20XX Personal protection firearms will continue to generate strong demand Target and competitive shooting firearms will remain strong Female shooters will enter the sport faster than male shooters Inventory Inventory availability will remain a challenge through June 2017 Ammo will become more available in Q2 Cash flow will remain tight Political / Regulatory Trump administration will not create laws driving spikes in demand No impactful regulations restricting or improving firearm ownership and LTC Other. 12
Tools: Product Category Analysis 13
Tools: Sales by Customer by Category Customer 1 Customer 2 Customer 3 Customer 4 Customer 5 Handguns Rifles Shotguns Other 14
Tools: Customer YOY Demand Customer 1 Customer 2 Customer 3 Customer 4 Customer 5 2015 2016 15
Tools: Sample Forecast Dollars January February March April May June June Customer Category Subcategory SKU Customer 1 Rifles Bolt action 12345 $ 34,080 $ 138,365 $ 163,212 $ 187,572 $ 182,700 $ 203,000 $ 223,300 Customer 1 Rifles Semi auto 12345 $ 16,200 $ 65,772 $ 57,246 $ 74,298 $ 64,960 $ 64,960 $ 73,080 Customer 1 Rifles Lever action 12345 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 43,950 $ 43,950 $ 23,440 Customer 1 Rifles Used 12345 $ 150 $ 479 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Customer 1 Handguns Semi auto 12345 $ 6,636 $ 22,562 $ 17,775 $ 27,581 $ 22,100 $ 25,500 $ 23,800 Customer 1 Handguns Revolver 12345 $ 861 $ 3,125 $ 4,153 $ 4,312 $ 5,445 $ 9,075 $ 10,890 Customer 1 Handguns Single action 12345 $ 9,888 $ 33,619 $ 33,810 $ 122 $ 3,400 $ 272 $ 170 Customer 1 Handguns Used 12345 $ 972 $ 2,615 $ 4,229 $ 7,263 $ 2,690 $ - $ 2,690 Customer 1 Shotguns Semi auto 12345 $ 1,212 $ 4,121 $ 4,406 $ 3,998 $ 3,740 $ 4,420 $ 4,760 Customer 1 Shotguns O/U, SBS 12345 $ - $ - $ - $ 329 $ 396 $ 495 $ 594 Customer 1 Shotguns Used 12345 $ 150 $ 479 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Units Customer 1 Rifles Bolt action 12345 76 307 363 417 406 451 496 Customer 1 Rifles Semi auto 12345 32 132 114 149 130 130 146 Customer 1 Rifles Lever action 12345 0 0 0 0 176 176 94 Customer 1 Rifles Used 12345 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 Customer 1 Handguns Semi auto 12345 24 82 65 100 80 93 87 Customer 1 Handguns Revolver 12345 3 11 15 16 20 33 40 Customer 1 Handguns Single action 12345 36 122 123 0 12 1 1 Customer 1 Handguns Used 12345 4 10 15 26 10 0 10 Customer 1 Shotguns Semi auto 12345 2 8 9 8 7 9 10 Customer 1 Shotguns O/U, SBS 12345 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Customer 1 Shotguns Used 12345 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 16
Sales Plan Impact on Operations Are specific goals linked to the plan and how? How is the sales plan used to guide and manage operations? Marketing Manufacturing Purchasing Cash flow Inventory management 17
Panel Q s: Reviewing the Plan How often do you review your plan and at what level of detail? How much does it need to be off plan before you revise it (overall or at any level)? 18
Metrics What Should You Watch? External NICS reports Firearms Manufacturing & Export report Firearms and Ammunition Excise Tax report Public company results Internal Inventory turns or weeks on hand Ratio of order inflows to outflows Backlog $ Web traffic Prices Sales forecast accuracy! 19
Summary Long term growth of the industry should be positive Become more sophisticated in planning demand Sales and operations planning = increased profitability He Who Executes The Best Wins 20
Your Next Steps 1. Commit 2. Evaluate your sales and supply chain processes 3. Identify quick impact changes 4. Implement!! The worst thing you can do is nothing! 21
Thank You! Christopher DiCenso 781.837.3276 CDiCenso@GrowthStrategyPartners.com George Harris 603.642.7291 George@IFCLLC.us www.nasgw.org Growth Strategy Partners LLC 22