Weekly Chartering Report Thursday, 3 ch 211 Braemar Seascope ket Indicator Wet 2--11 Avg Avg YTD 21 Avg TC E ( U S $ / D a y ) TC E ( U S $ / D a y ) TC E ( U S $ / D a y ) TC E ( U S $ / D a y ) 26, NHC PG/EAST TD3 18, 24, 17,5 4,5 13, NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 26,5 13,5 1,5 24, 8, NHC UK/CONT TD7 43, 15,5 1,5 19, 55, CLN PG/JAPAN TC5 3, 3,5 5, 9,5 37, CLN CONT/USAC TC2 19, 11, 1,5 12, 38, CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 5,5 4,5 6,5 8,5 Dry 2--11 Avg Avg YTD 21 Avg BDI 1,281 1,41 1,29 2,758 BCI 1,337 1,626 1,492 3,48 BPI 1,858 1,732 1,79 3,115 BSI 1,435 1,361 1,289 1,365 Container 28--11 Avg Avg YTD 21 Avg B O X i 96.37 91.7 85.18 63.83 Financial 2--11 Avg Avg YTD 21 Avg BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 115.71 15.52 11.17 79.49 IFO 38 ROTT US$/mt 611.5 569.73 542.42 449.24 YEN/US$ 81.82 82.54 82.59 87.7 WON/US$ 1,124 1,118 1,117 1,155. US$/EURO 1.39 1.37 1.35 1.33 US$/STERLING 1.63 1.62 1.6 1.55 GOLD /USUS$ 1,437 1,381 1,37 1,224. All details given in good faith but without guarantee Tanker Chartering +44 ()2 7535 2626 Dry Cargo Chartering +44 ()2 7535 2666 Container Chartering +44 ()2 7535 2867
Crude Chartering 3/3/211 VLCC As the week has progressed, charterers in the Arabian Gulf have targeted owners willing to fix at below ws6. for Eastern discharge, and it seems that fewer and fewer owners have been willing to accept these levels. The tonnage list is now showing a particular shortage of vessels. However, the oil company relets have mostly been cleared out, leaving independent owners pushing for improved rates. The Libya situation caused the oil price to remain strong and subsequently fuel oil has also been at very high levels. The quicker this situation remedies itself and stability returns to the Middle East, the quicker oil prices will stabilise and soften. There has been a steady stream of cargoes this week, which has allowed owners to gain confidence, and this is one of the reasons rates have recovered slightly to above ws6. today. Meanwhile, for charterers looking for Western discharge, rates have also increased slightly, although the lack of availability of these cargoes means competition is quite strong. W Africa has been very positively affected overnight by a sudden jump in suezmax rates. This ws2-3 point increase over the week has meant that VLCCs which started the week at ws57.5 have ended today on subjects at ws8. for W Africa/US Gulf. The lack of availability of VLCCs in the Atlantic has meant that charterers have no alternative to suezmax tonnage other than a very limited collection of owners, who know they're in the driving seat when it comes to freight rates. IOC have once again been busy from W Africa, and the increasing market has meant their freight bill has increased to roughly US$4.5m for WC India and US$4.8m for EC India for a cargo loading before the end of ch. The fuel arbitrage seems to have died from the Continent, mostly due to the owners' overly strong freight ideas, wanting in excess of US$4.5m. The 3 day availability of VLCCs arriving at Fujairah shows 62 double hulls and nine single hulls, compared to 72 double hull and 1 single hull vessels last week. So far, the month of ch has produced a total of 58 spot fixtures, completing the first decade and about halfway through the second decade. We expect demand to remain at about 11 cargoes for the month, so plenty of cargoes to come and rates drifting up: there are some slightly positive signs for owners. The freight rate for 28,mt PG/US Gulf is ws42.5, up ws2.5 points from last week. With bunkers at US$641/tonne, down US$29/tonne from last week, owners earnings are: Double Hull TCE: US$3,8/day (US$-2,65/day last week) The freight rate for 27,mt PG/S Korea is ws62.5, up ws5. points from last week, making owners earnings of: Double Hull TCE: US$25,/day (US$15,3/day last week) Route Size Load Discharge Today s Assessment Last Week s Average TD1 28, Ras Tanura LOOP ws45. ws4.5 TD2 265, Ras Tanura Singapore ws65. ws59.5 TD3 265, Ras Tanura Chiba ws65. ws59.5 TD4 26, Bonny LOOP ws8. ws66. TD15 26, West Africa China ws7.5 ws62.5 VLCC PG Weekly Spot Fixtures by Volume Intended Discharge (23rd - 2nd 211) India 19% Korea-Japan 12% VLCC PG Monthly Spot Fixtures by Volume Final Destination ( 21) West 15% USA 8% Spore-Indo 19% Med/Reds 4% Short East 23% Long East 62% China 38% Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 2
Crude Chartering 3/3/211 Suezmax This was the week that everyone had expected last week to be in West Africa. The uncertainty in Libya certainly encouraged owners to push rates up, and there were good levels of activity from which they could realise these gains. Last week finished with a slight rise to ws86.25 for a UK Cont/Med run, and owners hoped to take the momentum into this week. Although at the beginning of this week rates for US Gulf dropped back down to ws8., they very quickly jumped back up to ws87.5 for UK Cont/Med. In the middle part of the week, levels of activity ramped up considerably, and the rates moved through ws9. all the way up to ws99.5 for a US Gulf run. There was then a brief pause as charterers took stock of the situation, but with fresh enquiry continuing to enter the market, rates moved up to ws11. by the end of the week. There have been around 2 fixtures done from W Africa this week, and this coincided with increased demand for tonnage in the Americas. Add into this mix a strong Med market and high bunker prices, it all combines to make a very strong market. Currently, there are only a couple of cargoes remaining from West Africa, but the market expects to see plenty more in the 25-31 ch window. The rates appear to have stalled at the current levels, although this is due mainly to the lack of fresh enquiry. The owners should try and seize upon last decade cargoes and try and push the rates further, although any lengthy period of quiet will help take some of the steam out of the market. In the Med/Black Sea market, rates took an immediate jump to ws97.5 off mid-month dates. This jump may have been bigger than the market expected, but again uncertainty in Libya and the bunker prices combined with a tightening list to drive the rates higher. This led to a number of charterers coming in with Black Sea-UK Cont/Med cargoes all at the same time, as charterers looked to cover open positions. Consequently, we saw these rates jump to ws112.5 and on to ws117.5. The Turkish straits delays have been consistent for a couple of months now, and remain fairly predictable. Med/trans-Atlantic cargoes followed closely behind W Africa, rising at a comparable speed. There are lots of rumours of mid-month Med cargoes, which will not help calm the market down. Charterers are starting to stretch out well into the last decade out of the Black Sea. The market looks like the strength will continue in the near future. While ships continue to load in Libya, the situation there is only adding to the uncertainty in the market. While the suezmax market in the West was showing good levels of volatility, the East market was the polar opposite. The VLCC market stayed pretty level all week, and so did not have any great impact on the suezmaxes. There have been no Indian cargoes to speak of this week and only a couple of PG/East cargoes. Rates have remained pretty predictable at the mid-ws8's, with one fixture done at ws86.5 and one done at ws88.. The tonnage list remains a mix of good quality ships and lower quality ships, which always results in some uncertainty regarding the direction of the market. A batch of cargoes in the market needing good ships would cause the market to rise, although it seems that this will be the least likely outcome. Realistically, the market is more likely to stay relatively stable in the short term. While the VLCCs remain static, this will likely pin the suezmax rates at the current levels. Route Size Load Discharge Today s Assessment Last Week s Average TD5 13, Bonny Philadelphia ws112.5 ws95. TD6 135, orossiysk usta ws12. ws11. 135, Mediterranean UK Cont ws115. ws12.5 135, North Sea US Gulf ws1. ws92.5 135, Ras Tanura South East Asia ws85. ws85. Suezmax WAFR Weekly Spot Fixtures by Volume Intended Discharge (23rd - 2nd 211) Suezmax Weekly Spot Fixtures by Volume Load Area (23rd - 2nd 211) South Africa 6% India East 12% Australia 6% USA 47% NW Europe 9% Carib - EC Mex 5% South America 6% South Africa 2% West Africa 36% NW Europe 29% Black Sea 14% PG 16% Med-Red Sea 12% Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3
Crude Chartering 3/3/211 Aframax North Sea and Baltic aframax rates have continued to firm throughout this week. Due to a severe lack of available ice class tonnage in the Baltic, rates broke the ws2. barrier. Charterers have moved to cover stems as far in advance as 2 th ch, which could mean rates will soften due to a lack of activity once stems have been covered. The ice situation in the Baltic continues to worsen, and more ice is starting to appear in places which up until this time have not seen ice this year. Last done Primorsk/UK Cont is ws225., where, as from Tallinn, fuel was fully fixed at ws21.. The North Sea has firmed this week to ws145. currently last done. However, there has been fresh enquiry and it remains to be seen as to what levels they have been concluded at. The North Sea tonnage list is not as tight as the Baltic, and as such we may see levels slip below ws145. last done, as tonnage outweighs demand. There is also the added factor that there will be more non-ice class ships becoming available, due to the worsening ice situation in the Baltic. Cross-Med rates and Black Sea continued to firm sharply, as the civil unrest in Libya showed no signs of ceasing anytime soon. The uncertainty and obvious dangers connected with fixing out of Libya have allowed owners to substantially push rates up to ws215., giving them an estimated US$7,/day return. Some thought last week that these Libya cargos might temporarily stop, but for the time being, the majority of charterers seem to be able to push them through. This said, at time of writing, there are unconfirmed reports that ships are being cancelled due to difficulties in making the barrels load-ready. Meanwhile, as we expected, this has buoyed all other markets. For a normal cross-med voyage not loading in Libya, last done is ws2.. Out of the Black Sea, charterers can expect to pay in the region of ws21.. However, Black Sea liftings have been limited in recent days, so we may see an influx of enquiry from this region. This, in turn, will further ramp up the market if the problems in Libya continue. Assuming the Libyan issues won't be resolved anytime soon, rates will remain high and firm. We will see ballasters come from the North, the East and the West. However, this won't provide much relief for charterers, as ships fixed ex-libya will most likely experience long and uncertain delays, with ever-changing voyage orders making them unfixable, and consequently meaning the tonnage list is much shorter than it appears. Charterers will have little choice but to pay these rates. Poor weather conditions in the Caribbean and US Gulf have continued to delay vessels, which has in turn continued to push rate levels upwards. The big talking point of the week was when a replacement fixture was done at ws195.. At the time of writing, last done was ws165.. We would anticipate that this rate will continue to firm on the back on the high replacement number and weather conditions, Further into next week, though, we may see rates level out. It has been another busy week for aframaxes in the East, with 48 fixtures concluded. This helped owners claw back a few more points on TD8 and TD14 to about ws15. and ws95. respectively. Tonnage availability remains ample, but we still have roughly a third of the ch program to come. Coupled with expensive bunkers at nearly US$65/tonne ex- Fujairah, we may see slight rate gains next week as well. Route Size Load Discharge Today s Assessment Last Week s Average TD7 8, Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven ws15. ws14.5 TD8 8, Mina Al Ahmadi Singapore ws15. ws12.5 TD9 7, Puerto La Cruz Corpus Christi ws165. ws143.5 TD11 8, Banias Lavera ws2. ws18. TD14 8, Seria Sydney ws92.5 ws9. TD17 1, Primorsk Wilhelmshaven ws225. ws29. Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot Fixtures Intended Discharge Area (23rd - 2nd 211) Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot Fixtures Load Area (23rd - 2nd 211) USA 27% Med-Red Sea 35% Black Sea 9% UKCont 8% USA 2% Baltic 31% NW Europe 36% India East 1% Carib-EC Mex 1% N Africa - East Med 26% Carib-EC Mex 24% Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 4
Jan Jan Jan Crude Tanker Summary Jan 3/3/211 TD3-26 - Ras Tanura - Chiba TCE 12, 1, 8, 29 21 211 6, 4, 2, TD5-13 - Bonny - Philadelphia TCE 8, 6, 29 21 211 4, 2, TD7-8 - Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven TCE 8, 6, 29 21 211 4, 2, TD9-7 Puerto La Cruz- Corpus Christi TCE 47, 37, 27, 29 21 211 17, 7, -3, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 5
Jan Jan CPP Chartering 3/3/211 Clean Products - East It's been a busier week for the LR2s. Rates still haven't picked up but if all the vessels with subs outstanding get lifted, it'll certainly give owners something to push for and it shouldn't be long until we see rates rise. Earnings are still very low at not much more than US$5,/day TCE on an PG/Japan naphtha run. The gas oil arbitrage east to west is shut, so there has been little arbitrage movement on the newbuild tonnage recently. The jet arbitrage remains open, and there has consequently been some increased interest in storage in the West amid worries about how the situation in the Middle East might develop. The LR1s have been quiet this week with no newly reported PG/Japan naphtha movements. Last done is still ws115., although despite the lack of cargoes in the market, owners are pushing for more with some saying they won't do any less than ws12.. Whether they manage to dig their heels in and hold out for it is, of course, another matter. There have been a couple of jet fixtures west, but levels are still fairly depressed at around the US$1.75m mark. Although the east of Suez MR market remains quiet, this week has seen second decade ex-wc India MR cargoes start to go on subs and fix. Rates for WC India/Japan have picked up slightly with ws129. on subs and ws13. reported as fixed. This is compared with last week s ws125.. This increase may be the result of high bunker prices, which provide a floor to rates less than ws129.. Red Sea/West has also been reportedly fixed at US$8,, but the movement of jet west largely concluded at the end of last week, so little has moved that way. PG/S Africa E Africa continues to provide a premium for owners due to the piracy risk. Numbers are currently at ws215. -26.. Cross-PG currently trades at the US$2, level. Route Size Load Discharge Today s Assessment Last Week s Average TC1 75, Ras Tanura Yokohama ws1. ws98. TC5 55, Ras Tanura Yokohama ws117.5 ws115.5 TC4 3, Singapore Chiba ws13. ws13. TC1-75 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE TC5-55 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE 4, 3, 2, 29 21 211 3, 2, 29 21 211 1, 1, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 6
Jan Jan CPP Chartering 3/3/211 Clean Products - West The week started on a firm note. A continuation of last week s rally and a tight position list for well-approved vessels resulted in a 25 point gain for TC2, with ws2.-25. fixed several times, returning about US$15,8/day. The steady and sharp rise in rates turned some charterers to work the last palm oil vessels, where a ws1. point discount was achieved. More interestingly, charterers are reaching out two weeks to lock in the cheaper palm oil vessels. In essence, this week's rate increase has been driven by strong owner sentiment, coupled with high bunker prices and a positive trans-atlantic arbitrage. Combine this with some owners cleverly hiding tonnage positions, and you saw some charterers panicking and fixing at ws1. point premiums to 'last done'. There are no signs that the general shortness of available well-approved tonnage will change anytime soon; we have a firm outlook in the meantime. However, any hope of this being maintained remains highly unlikely, as long tonnage will continue to be the prevailing element in this market for some time yet. The Med has firmed ws2. points this week from last, mainly due to obvious geo-political scenes we have all observed on the news. Traders continue to feel unsurprisingly uneasy as supply will be disrupted. A lack of fixtures for the Caribbean up this week makes it difficult to gauge levels, although sentiment is that it is around ws14. with ws175. for Caribbean/Brazil being concluded several times. The tonnage list is fairly long, but the market is of firm persuasion. Back haul US Gulf/trans-Atlantic rates are at ws1.. Route Size Load Discharge Today s Assessment Last Week s Average TC2 37, Rotterdam New York ws25. ws193.5 TC3 38, Aruba New York ws16. ws132. TC6 3, Skikda Lavera ws215. ws21. TC2-37 - Rotterdam - New York TCE TC3-38 - Aruba - New York TCE 3, 2, 29 21 211 2, 15, 29 21 211 1, 1, 5, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 7
Worldscale $ / day Worldscale $ / day Tanker Freight Futures Worldscale $ / day Worldscale $ / day 3/3/211 Tanker Freight Futures TD3 VLCC 26kmt Ras Tanura - Chiba 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 TD3 +1 Month Contract + 1 Month 1 day MA Bollinger (2,2) TD3 WS Change 71. 8. 7. 8. Q211 68. 1. Q311 66. 7. Q411 67. 4. Q112 57. 2. CAL12 56. 2. 48 43 38 33 28 23 18 13 8 3 TD3 Forward Curve 23/2/211 2/3/211 SPOT Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 CAL12 CAL13 CAL13 56.. TD5 Suezmax 13kmt Bonny - Philadelphia 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 TD5 +1 Month Contract + 1 Month 4 Day MA Bollinger (2,2) TD 5 WS Change 99. 21. 93. 14. Q211 88. 1. Q311 85. 7. Q411 87. 5. Q112 78.. CAL11 75.5.5 CAL12 77.. 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 TD5 Forward Curve 23/2/211 2/3/211 TD7 Aframax 8kmt Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven 16 15 14 13 12 11 TD7 +1 Month Contract +1 Month 2 MA Bollinger (2,2) TD 7 WS Change 127. 24. 17. 6. Q211 16. 6. Q311 12. 3. 46 41 36 31 26 21 TD7 Forward Curve 23/2/211 2/3/211 1 9 8 Q411 11. 2. Q112 15.. 16 11 6 7 6 CAL11 14.. 1 SPOT Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 CAL12 CAL13 CAL12 14. 2. TC2 MR 37kmt Continent - USAC 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 TC2 +1 Month Contract +1 Month 4 MA Bollinger (2,2) T C2 WS Change 183. 23. 165. 9. Q211 163.5 9.5 Q311 16. 7. Q411 165. 8. Q112 145.. CAL11 144.. 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 TC2 Forward Curve 23/2/211 2/3/211 SPOT Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 CAL12 CAL13 CAL12 144.. These indicative numbers do not reflect the annual flat rate change. Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 8
1-Jan-9 1--9 1--9 1--9 1-Jan-1 1--1 1--1 1--1 1-Jan-11 1--11 $ per day BCI Dry Cargo Chartering 3/3/211 Capesize A generally slow week, with force majeure still in effect from Rio Tinto until midweek. That said, the last 24 hours have finally brought some enquiry from WC Australia, a welcome sight for owners. W Australia/China rates have been reported around US$6.7/tonne level for mid-ch dates, giving little improvement in time charter return after taking into account the increased bunker price. A number of owners have dropped anchor in the East, demanding rates to cover running costs before they set sail again. This, combined with fresh cargoes, has today given owners some resilience against fixing sub US$7/tonne. In the Atlantic we have seen little enquiry or fixing. Puerto Bolivar/Rotterdam has been reported at US$9.7/tonne, while Tubarao/Qingdao has been reported at US$18.5/tonne. We even saw news of a capesize vessel securing a panamax stem, which many believe actually showed a better time charter return than the larger stems. Period deals have become one of the few ways for an owner to secure positive paying business. Nice modern ships have secured US$16,/day for one year time charter, and one would imagine if the poor market continues for much longer, we will see more owners take this jump. The Baltic Capesize Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings 125, 1, 1, Atlantic Pacific BCI 8, 75, 6, 5, 4, 25, 2, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 9
1-Jan-9 1--9 1--9 1--9 1-Jan-1 1--1 1--1 1--1 1-Jan-11 1--11 $ per day BPI Dry Cargo Chartering 3/3/211 Panamax After a slow start to the week, the Pacific is beginning to find momentum on the back of support from grain businesses from EC S America to the Far East. The FFAs have also seen another bout of pick-up with 2Q11 at low US$18,/day levels, which has prompted a slightly increased short period activity. However, period rates in general have appeared a little range-bound - perhaps betraying a lack of real confidence for the medium term. Anything between US$15,25/day and US$17,/day for better types are the prevailing levels achievable for such employment. For single grains trips, we have heard APS rates as high as US$27,/day plus a ballast bonus of US$6,, with some owners revising their ideas to higher levels. On the short Indonesian round voyages, index-types open in S China commanded mid to high US$14,/day, and are likely to fetch higher rates as grain business starts to heat up further. The Atlantic has remained flat all week, mainly due to a lack of tonnage on the Continent. This has again played into the owners hands to help hold the rates up. Front haul has been on the back burner again this week, as owners are still reluctant to trade east. Most grain stems have been slow to emerge, but those that have done so have been covered by Pacific tonnage. There is a dark cloud on the horizon for the forward bean stems out of Brazil as the soybean price rose for a second day in Chicago on concern that rain in parts of Brazil may delay the harvest and cause flooding, hurting the crop's quality. -delivery soybeans gained US$.14, or one per cent, to US$13.8925 yesterday afternoon on the Chicago Board of Trade. The Baltic Panamax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings 6, 6, Atlantic Pacific BPI 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 1
1-Jan-9 1--9 1--9 1--9 1-Jan-1 1--1 1--1 1--1 1-Jan-11 1--11 $ per day BSI Dry Cargo Chartering 3/3/211 Handy/Handymax/Supramax Further gains were seen in the Pacific market for supramaxes with continued increase in demand for prompt tonnage and interest for short period charters. With the end of the fiscal year approaching in Japan, steel exports have increased in volume, creating congestion for ships waiting to load at Japanese ports and a tighter supply of handysize tonnage in the Far East. South East Asia is balanced with moderate a rise in handy rates over the past week. Several backhaul orders remain in the market for prompt dates, although charterers are still struggling in finding cheap tonnage willing to discount long trips back to the Atlantic. In the Far East, congestion at some Japanese ports has kept rates for handysize vessels steady. Nonetheless we feel that fewer enquiries for end of ch might have an impact on rates in the next couple of weeks. Due to tax increases on iron ore from India the market has been deathly quiet as we move into ch. There are rumours of US$17.5 being done on handymaxes, down US$2.5 on last week. Supras are still commanding US$2, for the trip back but this will continue to slide in the foreseeable future. We may start to see a recovery in the second half of ch. Rates from ECSA to the continent have remained steady with handysizes still fetching around US$16,. We are seeing a marginal decrease in tonnage on the east coast of South America, maybe due to scrap to the East but can expect more ballasters from the continent in the coming weeks as grain season looms. The Baltic Supramax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings 5, 4, Atlantic Pacific BSI 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 11
Asia / Australia ket News 3/3/211 Dry Cargo News Australian commodity export forecasts by ABAREs Iron Ore Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts Australia's commodity export earnings to jump 14% to a record AUD 251 billion in 211-12 (y-e) equal to a fifth of its GDP and stay at that level in real terms for the next four years. In volume terms, Australian iron ore exports, its biggest earner, is forecast to jump 5% to 425 million tonnes in 211 and could leap to close to 6 million tonnes by 216, mainly driven by Chinese and other developing Asian nations domestic demand, while recovery in global steel production keeps boosting the demand. Australia's exports of metallurgical coal are projected to grow at an average rate of 5% a year and reach 219 million tonnes in 216 as global demand intensifies. Meanwhile thermal coal exports are forecast to reach 161m tonnes over the same period. Flooding in major coal producing regions of Queensland state last month means growth will be reduced to 3% in 211 to 163 million tonnes. Wheat ABARES has forecast Australia will harvest 24.2 million tonnes of wheat from its next crop, down from a record 26.3 million tonnes in the last harvest. Yields are expected to return to more normal levels after above-average rainfall in eastern Australia boosted yields in the last crop. But farmers hope crop quality will improve, given that much of the last crop was downgraded to feed grain. Wheat exports are forecast at 16.5 million tonnes in 211-12 compared with a forecast 16.2 million tonnes in 21-11. China s 12 th 5 year plan Iron Ore strategy China s iron ore producers have been investing heavily in boosting iron ore production capacity to help reduce the country s reliance on imports. China s strong economic growth and rapid urbanization have underpinned rising demand and helped push prices to record levels of about USD 19 a tonne but the nation will try to tackle the raising costs for steel makers with the country s next five year plan, due for release in the next few days. Under the plan, several minor producers will be merged into major steel companies and new ones will be formed, each with annual capacity of between 5 million and 6 million tonnes. The country s top 1 producers will account for 6% of domestic capacity by 215, compared to current levels of about 45%. China s major producers will also be encouraged to gain interest in overseas iron ore operations and raise the overseas equity in iron ore to 4% of domestic annual consumption by 215. Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 12
Jan-8-8 -8-8 Jan-9-9 -9-9 Jan-1-1 -1-1 Jan-11 Container Chartering 3/3/211 Containers After a few weeks of letting other sizes steal the limelight the panamax sector took centre stage again this week with some strong fixing activity. Otherwise, what generally felt like a quieter week in the market after the recent surge in market activity post-lunar New Year has produced another jump in this week's BOXi as the fixtures concluded set further new benchmarks. The panamax fixing activity this week has been two fold, with market tonnage fixing for a longer three year period in the high US$2, range but also charterers moving now to secure important strategic positions in the Summer at rates in excess of US$3, as the remaining positions begin to dry up. Elsewhere in the 28 teu sector, one of the prime movers in recent weeks, the remaining positions continue to push for further gains off il and activity, while the 17 teu sector also continues to strengthen, with modern Wenchong 17 teu designs fixing firmly in the upper US$1, s now and one unit fixing but subsequently failing at a rate in excess of US$11, this week. Fixing activity in the 11-13 teu feeders remains few and far between, still heavily dictated by a lack of supply, and where a rare Jiangsu Yangzijiang 13 teu fixture has even outstripped the 17 teu fixtures at a reported US$11,4 for 12 months this week in a reefer-heavy trade. The continued upward momentum of the container market appears to be squarely dividing charterers into two schools of thought. One is of the opinion that they still see value in securing tonnage for longer term strategic reasons and they will implement new service plans regardless. The other school of thought contends that projects that had been in the pipeline for the last few weeks no longer look as viable with current rising charter rates. Indeed as the BOXi has continued to rise since the end of ember the SCFI has steadily fallen, with a further drop of 31 points last week, backing the standpoint of the latter, more conservative charterers who are having trouble seeing value in the charter market at the moment. That said, as highlighted by the fixing activity this week, interest from strategic operators remains firm and continues to drive the market forward. Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Gear Speed Knots Index + / - 51/285 Gearless 15.5 4.44. 7/44 Gearless 17.5 5.85.1 75/415 Geared 16. 6.16.11 1/65 Geared 17.5 8.25.15 11/715 Geared 2. 1.56.56 135/925 Geared 2. 7.25.76 16/115 Gearless 18. 8.22.65 17/1125 Geared 19.5 7.94.3 174/13 Geared 2.5 8.13.19 2/16 Geared 21. 3.43.7 25/19 Geared 22. 7.5.12 28/2 Gearless 22. 7.31.22 35/25 Gearless 23. 6.5.8 425/28 Gearless 24. 5.73.52 Index Total 96.37 3.83 The Box Index B O X i 2 96.37 16 12 8 4 Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 13