Mexico Hotel & Tourism Investment Conference Global Hotel Industry Overview Jeff Higley VP, digital media & communications Thursday, 7 February 2013
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on Hotel Data Presentations (free registration required)
Our coverage As of December 2012 31,842 hotels 3,748,115 rooms 289 hotels 72,220 rooms 538 hotels 82,333 rooms 7,606 hotels 1,062,986 rooms 449 hotels 116,441 rooms 161 Countries WORLDWIDE 639 hotels 114,058 rooms 3,706 hotels 828,204 rooms 1,017 hotels 134,377 rooms
Global Review
Global Demand Growth Holds Steady (& ME/A Recovers) 15 10 Americas AsiaPac Europe ME/Africa 5 0-5 -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *By Continent, Demand % Change, 12 MMA 2007 2012
2012 RevPAR ($): Global growth. MEA bounces back. Europe is hurting. 17.5 2010 2011 2012 12.5 6.2 8.3 6.3 5.6 3.0 3.2 1.4 2.2-4.0-2.2 Americas Europe Asia Pac Middle East / Africa * World Regions, RevPAR % Change in US$, September YTD 2010-2012
Mexico and Latin America
2012 RevPAR % Change ($): Caribbean Strong. Central Weaker 2009 2010 2011 2012 18.9 18.9 10.9 8.3 8.0 7.6 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.5 2.4 5.5 0.5-4.4-1.5-12.0-16.9-17.0-16.8 Americas North America Caribbean Central America South America -21.9 * Americas Regions, RevPAR % Change in US$, 2009-2012
Mexico - Key Statistics YTD December 2012 % Change Hotels 3.3 k Room Supply 122.7 mn 1.2% Room Demand 71.7 mn 4.5% Occupancy 58.4% 3.2% ADR 1,372.37 6.5% RevPAR 801.55 10.0% Room Revenue 98.4 bn 11.3%
Mexico demand remains stable Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2005 to December 2012 15 10 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg Feb 11 10.5% 5 0 4.5% 1.2% -5-10 -15-20 Oct 09-14.9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mexico ADR still solid Occupancy/ADR ( ) Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2005 to December 2012 15 10 May 07 10.2 Feb 11 10.7 5 0 6.5 3.2-5 -10-15 -20 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg Oct 09-16.8 Apr 10-9.8 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mexico RevPAR enjoys upswing RevPAR Rate ( ) Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2005 to December 2012 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Mar 05 14.6 Occ % Chg Apr 11 11.1 10.0 Mar 10-19.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2012 actual occupancy in key Mexico markets Occupancy Percent December 2012 YTD 70 65 64.8 63.3 60 55 52.9 55.1 55.3 50 45 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey Mexico City Central Mexico
2012 occupancy growth in key Mexico markets Occupancy Percent Change December 2012 YTD 20 18.5 15 10 5 0 2.4 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey 3.0 1.4 Mexico City 0.6 Central Mexico
2012 actual ADR in key Mexico markets Average Daily Rate ( ) December 2012 YTD 2400 2000 2,000 1600 1,550 1,639 1200 1,117 800 883 400 0 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey Mexico City Central Mexico
2012 ADR growth in key Mexico markets Average Daily Rate ( ) Percent Change December 2012 YTD 20 18.3 15 10 9.6 5 4.3 4.1 3.5 0 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey Mexico City Central Mexico
2012 actual RevPAR in key Mexico markets RevPAR ( ) December 2012 YTD 1200 1000 1,005 1,058 1,037 800 600 487 618 400 200 0 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey Mexico City Central Mexico
2012 RevPAR growth in key Mexico markets RevPAR ( ) Percent Change December 2012 YTD 25 20 21.9 23.3 15 10 6.8 11.1 5 4.1 0 Yucatan Peninsula N.W. Mexico N.E. Mexico - Monterrey Mexico City Central Mexico
Mexico resorts outpace urban hotels in 2012 Key Performance Indicators Percent Change December 2012 YTD 10 8 Urban Resort 7.6 7.4 6 4 5.7 5.1 2 0-2 0.6 1.0 0.7-0.2 0.1-4 -6 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR -4.8
Mexico occupancy outpaces several other high profile markets Occupancy Percent Change December 2012 YTD 8 6 5.3 7.0 4 3.2 2 0-2 -4-6 -3.9-1.1-1.4 Mexico Brazil China India Russia Central America -4.7 Caribbean
Mexico ADR growth among the leaders ADR (Local Currency) Percent Change December 2012 YTD 15 12 9 6 3 0-3 -6 6.5 13.7-0.4 Mexico Brazil China India Russia Central America ($) -3.9 2.9 0.3 3.6 Caribbean ($)
Mexico RevPAR growth close to top vs. select markets RevPAR (Local Currency) Percent Change December 2012 YTD 12 8 10.0 9.2 8.3 10.8 4 0-4 -8-1.5 Mexico Brazil China India Russia Central America ($) -5.2-4.4 Caribbean ($)
Upper Midscale and Midscale Mexico vs. United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2005 to December 2012 20 10 0 Mexico US Jan 11 15.5 Jun 12 8.1 7.1 2.5-10 -20 Dec 09-15.9-30 -40 Sep 09-33.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Latin America: How Will ADR Grow in 2013? 13.1 10.4 9.3 9.7 6.1 1.1 2.8 1.0-0.4-0.5 Occupancy ADR ($) -11.7-10.7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *Latin America, Occupancy / ADR ($) % Change, 2007-2012
Latin America RevPAR ($): A Great Run! 14.3 10.0 15.9 12.7 0.5-21.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *Latin America, RevPAR ($)% Change, 2007-2012
Demand Growth Holds Steady (Except For Brazil) 20 Panama Brazil Mexico Peru Colombia 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *By Country, Demand % Change, 12 MMA 2007 2012
Supply Growth Explodes In Panama 25 Panama Brazil Mexico Peru Colombia 20 15 10 5 0-5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *By Country, Supply % Change, 12 MMA 2007 2012
Local Currency ADR % Change: Wide Variances; Brazil Steady 50 40 30 Panama (Balboas) Brazil (Real) Mexico (Peso) Peru (Sol) Colombia (Peso) 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *By Country, Local ADR % Change, 12 MMA 2007 2012
RevPAR % Change (Local Currency): Mixed results 19.5 18.4 2010 2011 2012 9.2 10.0 4.3 2.7 3.3 2.5 4.7-2.1-7.7-2.1-4.6-22.1-20.8 Panama Brazil Mexico Peru Colombia * Select Countries, RevPAR % Change in Local Currency, 2010-2012
Year End ADR (local currency) Vs. Inflation: Results Are Worse! 13.7 6.0 5.2 6.5 4.0 3.7 3.2-2.0-0.4 Inflation Rate % 2012 ADR % Change -8.8 Panama Brazil Mexico Peru Colombia *Select Countries, ADR % Change, local currency, 2012 Inflation Rate Source: http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
Under Construction Pipeline: Latin / South America is Very Attractive To Developers 2009 2010 2011 2012 5,215 5,171 4,941 4,241 3,799 3,466 2,8372,807 2,837 2,363 2,468 2,448 1,638 1,501 981 787 589 692 381 631 Brazil Colombia Panama Peru Mexico * Select Countries, Rooms Under Construction, November 2012
Latin America Selected Markets
November YTD Occupancy %: Selling Over 6 of 10 Rooms (Except PC) 78.8 64.3 63.3 71.8 65.2 57.1 49.2 Buenos Aires Mexico City Panama City Rio de Janeiro Lima Sao Paulo Bogota * Select Markets, OCC %, 2012
2012 ADR ($): Healthy ADRs Across The Board $219 $146 $125 $119 $146 $138 $156 Buenos Aires Mexico City Panama City Rio de Janeiro Lima Sao Paulo Bogota * Select Markets, ADR ($), 2012
2012 ADR % Change: Mixed Results In Local Currency ADR US$ ADR Local 26.5 15.4 8.6 9.6 8.8 4.2 2.7-1.6-1.3-1.9-1.1-4.5-9.8-9.7 Buenos Aires Mexico City Panama City Rio de Janeiro Lima Sao Paulo Bogota * Select Markets, ADR US$ and Local Currency % Change, 2012
A quick U.S. overview
Demand Growth Strong. RevPAR Driven by ADR. % Change Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.5% Room Demand* 1.1 bn 3.0% Occupancy 61.4% 2.5% A.D.R. $106 4.2% RevPAR $65 6.8% Room Revenue* $115 bn 7.3% Full year 2012, Total US Results * All Time High 37
Scales: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue 4.7 3.9 Supply Demand 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.0-0.2 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale** Midscale** Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 2012 **Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 38
ADR Growth > OCC Growth 4.6 4.3 4.6 3.8 Occupancy ADR 4.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 2.4 1.8 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale** Midscale** Economy *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 2012 **Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 39
RevPAR Slowly Catches Up To Prior Record Highs $213 $202 2007 2012 $113 $112 $84 $84 $62 $62 $44 $41 $31 $29 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale** Midscale** Economy *RevPAR $, by Scale, 2007 & 2012 **Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 40
Group Demand Never Recovered After Downturn 19.0% +30 mm rooms -3 mm rooms -2.7% Transient Group *Segmentation Demand % Change, 2012 (vs. 2007) 41
US Pipeline: Construction Accelerates Phase YE 2012 YE 2011 % Change In Construction 68 54 25.5% Final Planning 101 111-9.1% Planning 135 143-5.2% Active Pipeline 304 308-1.2% Pre-Planning 89 98-9.2% Total 393 406-3.1% *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, 2012 and 2011 42
Under Construction Rooms Mostly in Mid Segments 22.4 20.4 7.3 8.8 4.5 3.3 1.1 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, YE 2012 43
How we see it shaping up Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2013-2014 Outlook 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast Supply 1.0% 1.5% Demand 1.8% 2.8% Occupancy 0.8% 1.3% ADR 4.9% 4.6% RevPAR 5.7% 6.0% 44
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on Hotel Data Presentations (free registration required) 45