CairnsWatch September 2018 Cairns
OVERVIEW AT A GLANCE The Cairns economy gained further pace over the last month, led by strong employment growth and reduced unemployment. However forward indicators, such as airport passenger growth, job ad growth and building approvals, have all softened to varying degrees. Meanwhile we are still waiting for the accumulated economic gains to influence the property market, which has not yet budged from its Steady State position. Airport Passenger Trend: 0.9% (August 2017 to August 2018) Employment Trend: 3.5% (May 2018 to August 2018) Unemployment Rate Trend: to 6.3% (as at August 2018) Building Approvals Trend: 2.6% (July 2017 to July 2018) If this CairnsWatch bulletin has been forwarded to you from someone else and you would prefer to receive each issue direct, add your name and email address here it s simple and it s free! Please remember that CairnsWatch is now produced every second month, no longer monthly. The Fine Print: Information in this publication is based on an analysis of data from a number of sources, subjected to technical procedures of seasonal adjustment and trend analysis. Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the effects of normal seasonal variation from the data, so that comparisons can be made of data against their established seasonal patterns. Trend analysis smooths the seasonally adjusted estimates to provide a clearer picture of the underlying behaviour of the series over time. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 13- term Henderson-weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted data. It applies the same procedures used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in producing trends for national aggregates. Rick Carr Research Consultant Herron Todd White Cairns Phone: 07 4057 0200 Fax: 07 4051 3946 Email: rick.carr@htw.com.au No responsibility is accepted to any third party that may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this publication. Neither the whole nor any part of this publication or any reference thereto may be included in any published or photocopied documents, circular or statement, nor transmitted or published in part or full in any way, including electronically, without written approval of the form and context in which it may appear. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The scheme does not apply within Tasmania. HTW Copyright 2018 CairnsWatch September 2018 2
EMPLOYMENT Persons Employed in the Cairns Region Number of Persons Employed (Log Scale) 130,000 Cairns Region Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Actual and Trend Basis) 12% Actual Trend Cairns Region All Queensland 10% 120,000 8% 110,000 6% 4% 100,000 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data Trended employment figures for the Cairns Region (inclusive of Cairns, the Cassowary Coast, Douglas and the Tablelands) estimate that there were 116,800 persons employed during August 2018, up from the estimate of 115,100 persons employed during July 2018. The calculated employment trend has shown a distinct turnaround, increasing by 3.5% over the three months to August 2018, and reverting to strong growth mode. Even so, the August 2018 trend remains 1.0% below that prevailing in August 2017. N.B. The ABS Labour Force figures are estimates derived from a sample survey of only about 500 Cairns Region residents, and hence are subject to a potentially large margin of error. Neither the actual nor the trend estimates should be interpreted as precise values. 2% Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data With strong employment growth over the last three months, the latest statistics are now indicating that the unemployment rate trend in the Cairns Region is in reduction. The Cairns Region had a seasonally adjusted trend unemployment rate of 6.3% as at August 2018, down from the trend estimate of 6.4% as at July 2018. Importantly also, the Cairns Region s unemployment rate has moved back to parity with the State average, which now also stands at 6.3%. N.B. To be counted as unemployed in the ABS Labour Force survey you need to not have a job and be actively seeking work. People who do not have a job and are not actively seeking work are not counted as unemployed, they are regarded as not in the labour force. CairnsWatch September 2018 3
EMPLOYMENT Cairns Job Ads Monthly Average Jobs Advertised 1,000 Actual Trend Herron Todd White does Property Valuations 800 600 Herron Todd White Cairns has a wealth of experience in providing valuation services across the tourism, commercial, industrial, rural and residential property sectors. 400 From residential units and townhouses to specialist valuations, acquisitions and resumption, Herron Todd White Cairns team of specialist staff provides valuations across all property types. 200 0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Source: HTW Analysis of Employment Websites Though the trend in the number of jobs being advertised on employment websites for the Cairns and Far North region has been softening since the start of 2018, it remains at comparatively strong levels. The seasonally adjusted trend in the number of jobs being advertised in August 2018 is 3.2% higher than it was in August 2017, but has slipped 4.9% compared to January 2018. CairnsWatch September 2018 4
TOURISM Airport Passenger Numbers Monthly Passenger Arrivals + Departures (excl Transits) 450,000 250,000 150,000 90,000 International Flights Domestic Flights Herron Todd White does Tourism Valuations Buying or selling a tourist property? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in all forms of tourism related property including pubs, roadhouses, hostels and caravan parks, and the entire accommodation spectrum from small motels and serviced apartments through to large scale resorts. 50,000 30,000 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Source: Derived from Cairns Airport data Even though raw passenger numbers at Cairns Airport were at a record high during July-August 2018, when analysed in trend terms, passenger numbers are easing back ever so slightly for travellers on domestic origin/destination flights, and are moving sideways for those on international origin/ destination flights. Nevertheless there remains an overall airport passenger trend increase of 0.9% over the 12 months from August 2017 to August 2018, consisting of a 0.7% trend passenger increase on domestic flights and a 1.9% trend passenger increase on international flights. CairnsWatch September 2018 5
Property Prices Median Sale Price (Log Scale) Property Volumes Number of Sales per Quarter $450,000 $320,000 Houses 1,600 1,200 House Sales Unit Sales Land Sales Total (Trend) $230,000 Units 800 $165,000 Vacant Land 400 0 $120,000 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData Median property price trends have buttoned off for houses over the last six months, and have also reduced for units and land, as a result of changes in compositional mix. However our view is that most property prices are no more than plus or minus 5% different from what they were twelve months ago, and that their overall balance has remained basically static. The latest trend median prices, for properties sold in the month of August 2018, came in at $389,000 for a house, $211,000 for a unit, and $194,000 for a block of land. N.B. The median property price is the actual sale price of the middle-priced property from the list of properties sold each month. Movements in median prices do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property values. Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Quarter Ended * All sales are classsified to the date of contract ** Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData There are signs of volume returning to the real estate market, particularly from the units sector. The overall trend number of sales taking place totalled 1,074 in the June quarter of 2018, a 1.7% increase compared to the levels observed in the June quarter of 2017 and a distinct change from the dead flat conditions that had been otherwise occurring during 2016 and 2017. The 1.7% trend increase taking place between the June quarter of 2017 and the June quarter of 2018 comes as the combined result of a 2.1% trend decrease in house sales, offset by an 11.6% trend increase in unit sales and a 6.4% trend decrease in vacant land sales. CairnsWatch September 2018 6
Property Metrics Median Days on Market 120 Median Vendor Discount 8% 90 60 30 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 6% 4% 2% Herron Todd White does Tax Depreciation Schedules Do you have an up-to-date tax depreciation schedule? You could be missing out on thousands of dollars each year in allowable depreciation for your investment property. Depreciation is an important part of maximising your investment returns from an income generating property. Contact us on 4057 0200 for an obligation-free quote. 0 Houses Units 0% Houses Units Source: CoreLogic Other property market metrics have improved slightly for house sales over the last twelve months, and shown significant improvement for units. The median time taken for units to reach a sale has decreased from 74 days for units sold in the twelve months to June 2017, to 62 days for units sold in the twelve months to June 2018. Meanwhile the median time taken to sell a house has decreased marginally from 58 days to 57 days for houses sold over the same periods. The median vendor discount the difference between the asking price first advertised on a property and its ultimate selling price has reduced significantly for units and to a lesser degree for houses. CairnsWatch September 2018 7
Rental Vacancies Percentage Vacancy 8% 6% Houses Units Total Property Rents Median Rent ($ per week) $480 $420 4BR House 'Balanced Market' Range $360 3BR House 4% $300 2BR House 3BR Flat 2BR Flat 2% $240 1BR Flat 0% Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Source: HTW Rentroll Survey Though rental vacancy trends have crept up slightly over the last six months, rental vacancy rates remain low and continue to indicate tight verging on stressed market conditions. Our latest survey results show that the trend rental vacancy rates for August 2018 stood at 1.9% for houses, 1.9% for units and 1.9% overall. Coupled with the low level of new rental supply being created due to relatively low levels of new housing construction and reduced levels of investor housing activity, rental market conditions are expected to stay tight and/or stressed for some time. $180 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Quarter ended Source: Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority Low rental vacancy rates have been placing mild upward pressure on rents in year-on-year terms consistently over the last six years. Over the twelve months to June 2018 the Cairns weighted average median rent has increased from $400 to $410 per week for houses, but for units, rents were surprisingly no different over the same period at $285 per week. The low rental vacancy rates being observed in the current market are likely to maintain upward pressure on rents in coming quarters, but will not be able do so indefinitely for rental affordability reasons. N.B. The median rent is the middle-priced rental from the list of properties rented during the quarter. Movements in median rents do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property rents. CairnsWatch September 2018 8
Building Approvals Number of New Dwellings Approved in Cairns Urban Area 400 Houses Units 300 200 Total (Trend) Herron Todd White does Rural Valuations Selling the farm? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in agribusiness from cane farms to cattle properties and banana plantations. 100 0 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Source: Derived from ABS data Building approval figures have retreated somewhat from the April 2018 spike brought on by the first approval component of the Nova City development, but nevertheless remain heightened in technical trend terms. The calculated trend is 47.3% up in July 2018 compared to December 2017, but interestingly is down by 2.6% compared to the spike affected levels that were also prevailing in July 2017. Whilst it remains to be seen whether the building approval trend will continue at heightened levels, the extra construction activity will be most welcome. CairnsWatch September 2018 9
Special Topic: Comparative House Prices Median House Trend Price $650,000 Cairns Townsville Mackay Sunshine Coast $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Herron Todd White does Socio-Economic Research Herron Todd White Cairns carries out specialist project consulting assignments in all areas of socio-economic research, including demographic studies, statistical surveys, market research, strategy planning, cost benefit studies, and socio-economic impact assessment. Contact us today to discuss your requirements. $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Quarter Ended * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData Median house price movements have experienced a world of difference along the Queensland regional coast over the last five years. House prices have progressively escalated on the Sunshine Coast since 2012, but have now reached a plateau as the market nears its peak. Meanwhile prices in Mackay have been through the worst and are in recovery from their post- 2013 slump, while Townsville s median house prices continue to languish. Though house prices in Cairns have stagnated in recent times, home owners in Cairns are now considerably better off than those in Mackay and Townsville. However they have been considerably outperformed by those on the Sunshine Coast. The differences are plain to see! CairnsWatch September 2018 10
National Property Clock Dubbo NSW Central West Sunshine Coast Coffs Harbour Gippsland Melbourne Newcastle NSW Mid Nth Coast Approaching Peak of Market Peak of Market Starting to Decline Bendigo Gold Coast NSW Central Coast South East NSW Herron Todd White does Townsville Market Information Herron Todd White produces a quarterly publication of Townsville Market Information entitled Townsville in Focus. Like CairnsWatch, it is free of charge. Adelaide Adelaide Hills Albury Ballarat Barossa Valley Brisbane Burnie-Devonport Canberra Echuca Emerald Launceston Lismore Mildura Mount Gambier SA Iron Triangle Tamworth Rising Market Declining Market Sydney For further enquiries or to subscribe, contact townsville@htw.com.au or call (07) 4724 2000. Steady State/ Start of Recovery Approaching Bottom of Market Cairns Gladstone Hervey Bay Horsham Ipswich Mackay South West WA Townsville Warnnambool Whitsunday Bottom of Market Alice Springs Bundaberg Darwin Perth Rockhampton Toowoomba Entries coloured dark blue indicate positional change from last month Source: Residential Property Ratings Compiled by Herron Todd White, August 2018 Herron Todd White s National Property Clock is prepared each month based on the local market perceptions of its Australia-wide network of offices. Though there has been a pickup in unit sales, the absence of any substantive price growth across the market overall means we still regard Cairns as being in a Steady State position. CairnsWatch September 2018 11