Indonesia Country Report 2017 SYAFIQ HADI 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Resorts World Sentosa Singapore 22 25 May 2017
Contents Economic Review Steel Performance & Apparent Steel Consumption Steel Consuming Sectors Review of 2016 Performance Outlook for 2017 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 2
% Economic Review: Macroeconomic Indonesia GDP 7.00 6.00 5.00 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.40 Indicator Unit GDP %, yoy 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 Export %, yoy 2.0 5.3 (1.2) (2.0) (1.7) 4.00 3.00 2.00 2017F Import %, yoy 6.2 1.0 (2.4) (5.8) (2.3) Trade Mil. USD (1,669) (4,077) (2,199) 7,671 8,783 Balance Exchange IDR/USD 9,718 10,445 11,876 13,392 13,305 Rate Source: Bank of Indonesia, Indonesia Statistic Bureau 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 3
Economic Review: Inflation & Bank of Indonesia Rates % 9.0 Inflation vs Bank of Indonesia Rates 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Inflation 4.3 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.0 BI Rate 5.8 6.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 Source: Bank of Indonesia, Indonesia Statistic Bureau 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 4
Economic Review: Growth by Sectors Business Sector Unit Agriculture, forestry, fishery %, yoy 4.59 4.2 4.24 3.77 3.25 Mining & quarrying %, yoy 3.02 2.53 0.43 3.42 1.06 Manufacturing industry %, yoy 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 Electricity & gas procurement %, yoy 10.06 5.23 5.9 0.9 5.39 Water procurement, waste management, recycling %, yoy 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.6 Construction %, yoy 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 Wholesale & retail, cars and motorcycles repairment %, yoy 5.4 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93 Transport & warehousing %, yoy 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74 Accomodation & food provision %, yoy 6.64 6.8 5.77 4.31 4.94 Information & communication %, yoy 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87 Financial services & insurance %, yoy 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.9 Real estate %, yoy 7.41 6.54 5 4.11 4.3 Company services %, yoy 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 Government administration, defense, mandatory social security %, yoy 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19 Education services %, yoy 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 Health & social activity services %, yoy 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5 Other services %, yoy 5.76 6.4 8.93 8.08 7.8 GDP %, yoy Source: 6.03 Indonesia 5.56 Statistic 5.01Bureau 4.88 5.02 Source: Bank of Indonesia, Indonesia Statistic Bureau 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 5
% Steel Performance: Crude Steel (1/2) 100% Crude Steel Utilization 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 38% 45% 54% 57% 47% 10% 0% 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 6
Million Tons Million Tons Steel Performance: Crude Steel (2/2) Slabs Consumption 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 0.50 Production 0.72 0.72 1.99 2.43 2.84 Import 1.95 2.09 3.22 1.46 1.51 Export 0.30 0.63 0.75 Consumption 2.66 2.81 4.91 3.26 3.60 Increase 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 0.50 Billets Consumption Production 1.54 1.93 2.37 2.44 1.91 Import 1.87 1.74 0.58 1.20 1.42 Export 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 Consumption 3.41 3.66 2.94 3.63 3.33 Decrease 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 7
Million Tons Apparent Steel Consumption 14.00 Apparent Steel Consumption 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Production 5.42 5.12 6.48 6.17 6.58 Import 7.94 8.20 7.41 6.52 6.88 Export 0.86 0.62 0.98 1.32 0.79 Apparent Steel Consumption 12.50 12.70 12.90 11.37 12.67 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 8
Million Tons Million Tons Steel Performance: HRC/P HR Coils Consumption 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 0.50 Production 1.90 1.86 2.06 1.65 2.05 Import 1.83 1.90 1.71 1.63 1.68 Export 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.09 Consumption 3.71 3.72 3.71 3.24 3.64 Increase HR Plates Consumption 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Production 0.81 0.54 1.54 1.33 1.50 Import 0.89 0.80 0.57 0.28 0.20 Export 0.15 0.05 0.33 0.37 0.38 Consumption 1.55 1.30 1.78 1.24 1.32 Increase 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 9
Million Tons Steel Performance: CRC/S 3.00 CRC/S Consumption 2.50 2.00 1.50 0.50 Production 0.86 1.05 1.17 1.07 1.07 Import 1.46 1.45 1.37 1.22 1.39 Export 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 Consumption 2.25 2.44 2.49 2.25 2.41 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 10
Million Tons Million Tons Steel Performance: Sections & Bars 1.20 Sections Consumption Decrease 2.50 Bars Consumption Decrease 2.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 1.50 0.20 0.50 Production 0.44 0.45 0.66 0.80 0.76 Import 0.57 0.63 0.41 0.30 0.21 Export 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 Consumption 0.99 1.05 1.06 1.09 0.97 Production 1.48 1.61 1.61 1.74 1.67 Import 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.42 0.42 Export 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 Consumption 1.94 2.06 2.07 2.14 2.06 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 11
Million Tons Steel Performance: Wire Rods 1.60 Wire Rods Consumption 1.40 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Production 0.81 0.68 0.63 0.67 0.59 Import 0.49 0.72 0.76 0.63 0.84 Export 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.06 Consumption 1.25 1.33 1.34 1.26 1.38 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 12
Steel Consuming Sectors: HRC/P 100% HRC/P Consuming Sectors 90% 80% 34% 37% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7% 6% 27% 28% 1% 1% 13% 10% 2% 1% 16% 18% 2015 2016 General Structures & Others Shipbuildings Rerollings Oil & Gas Pipes Comm. Pipes & Tubes Boiler & PV Automotive 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 13
Steel Consuming Sectors: CRC/S 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% CRC/S Consuming Sectors 12% 10% 7% 8% 5% 5% 2% 2% 43% 46% 1% 1% 1% 1% 31% 25% Coil Centers & Others TMBP Pipes & Tubes HomeOfficeElectrical App. GI Sheets + Zincalumes Enamels Drums Automotive 0% 2015 2016 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 14
Review of 2016 Performance Generally, Indonesia economic performance showed an improvement in the last consecutive 3 years, that was marked by well maintained of inflation. The apparent steel consumption increased significantly (10%) higher than the year 2015 meanwhile crude steel production was decrease last year due to the increasing of billet import. Major industrial sectors in the year 2016 were dominated by construction, automotive, shipbuilding and GI Sheet. 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 15
Outlook for 2017 Indonesia economic growth in 2017 as Bank Indonesia forcasted is 5.4%. that will be supported mainly by the infrastructure projects. Crude steel production rate is forecasted higher than previous years due to operation again of some iron and steel making plants. Government infrastructure projects will be the main driver sector to improve the steel consumption. Global oversupply production especially in China is still a major challege to Indonesian steel industry. Krakatau Steel Nippon Steel Sumikin and Krakatau Osaka Steel will be in fully production. Krakatau Steel Hot Strip Mill no. 2 will be commissioned in 2019. 2017 SEAISI Conference & Exhibition Indonesia Country Report 16
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