The Regional Scenario: Tackling Key Political & Development Challenges & Opportunities in Latin America & the Caribbean The Caribbean Perspective INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON DIPLOMATIC TRAINING 44 th Meeting of Deans & Directors of Diplomatic Academies & Institutes of International Relations, Santiago, Chile Academic Diplomatica de Chile Andres Bello 6-8 September 2017 Dr. Khellon Q. Roach Manager, Diplomatic Academy of the Caribbean Institute of International Relations The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad & Tobago, West Indies
Setting the Global Context A Multiplex World Today, we live in a Multiplex World according to Prof. Amitav Acharya (2015): 1. The Multiplex World is like a multiplex cinema. Instead of one movie, it shows several movies with different scripts, actors, producers and directors. 2. The Multiplex World is marked by complex global interdependence. 3. The Multiplex World has multiple layers of governance global, inter-regional, regional, domestic etc. 4. The Multiplex World is a decentred world. It is non-hegemonic Adapted from the Keynote Address by Professor Amitav Acharya to the Forum on the Future of the Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago, 6 th May 2015 2
Setting the Regional Context The Caribbean The Caribbean small states are a diverse set of countries: - Commodity Exporters (T&T, Guyana, Belize, Suriname together produce oil/gas, minerals and agricultural goods). - Service-based Economies (Bahamas, Barbados & OECS are mainly dependant on tourism). - C bbean countries share similar econ. characteristics (Small economies, open to international trade, highly exposed to natural disasters and economic shocks). 3
Crime and Security in the Caribbean Crime and Security is one of the main threats facing the Caribbean. Crime and Security affects: Economic growth and development Regional and International Investment Tourism Quality of Life 4
Health NCDs in the Caribbean Caribbean mortality rates for communicable diseases (CDs) & non-communicable diseases (NCDs) 2014 (numbers per 100,000 population) Source: Adapted from IMF Caribbean Small States: Challenges of High Debt and Low Growth (20 Feb. 2013) 5
Climate Change/Sea Level Rise in the Caribbean According to the Artic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2011), Sea Levels will rise by 0.9 to 1 m. The impact from 1m sea level rise in the Caribbean will be severe: Nearly 1,300 km2 land area lost (e.g. 5% of the Bahamas, 2% of Antigua & Barbuda) Over 110,000 people displaced (e.g. 5% of the population of The Bahamas, 3% of Antigua & Barbuda) At least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost, with beach assets lost or greatly degraded at many more tourism resorts Over 1% of agricultural lands lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (e.g. 6% in the Bahamas) Transportation networks severely disrupted, including loss or damage of 21 (28%) CARICOM airports, land surrounding 35 ports inundated (out of 44) and loss of 567km of roads (15% of road networks in the Bahamas, and 12% in Guyana) 6
Natural Disasters in the Caribbean 6 OECS countries rank in the top 10 most disaster prone countries in the world (Rasmussen, 2006) Probability of a Hurricane Striking on a Given Year (in percent) Over the last 60 years, the Caribbean has suffered from 187 natural disasters (mostly hurricanes & floods) The Caribbean has experienced losses equivalent to almost 1 percent of GDP on average in damages each year. 1.5% of the population has been affected each year 1,345 people have died over the past 60 years Hurricanes reduce output by nearly 1% (Strobl 2012) Source: Adapted from IMF Caribbean Small States: Challenges of High Debt and Low Growth (20 Feb. 2013) 7
Energy Security in the Caribbean World Energy Consumption Forecast 1990 2040 (Quadrillion Btu) Energy Self Sufficiency 2012 Selected Caribbean Countries Source: International Energy Outlook 2013 Source: International Renewable Energy Agency 2012 8
Access to Financing (especially Official Development Finance) Thirteen countries classified as upper middle or high income countries based on their GNI per capita Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2014) Source: SIDS Statistics, World 9
Closing Considerations Small states have no arsenal of foreign policy tools such as economic clout or military capacity with which to advance their interests or counter the constraints that are imposed on them by more powerful countries and institutions. They rely entirely on the capacity and forcefulness of their diplomacy ***Sir Ronal Sanders*** Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the United States and the Organisation of American States for Antigua and Barbuda 10
Closing Considerations Caribbean countries have been historically oriented towards Western Europe and North America. It is high time that we realize that, besides an eastern and a northern border, the Caribbean also has a southern border and beyond that border there is a great potential of markets, technology and culture. ***Dr. Ronald Venetiaan*** Former President of Suriname & CARICOM Chairman, 11
Closing Considerations CELAC A Significant Milestone & Opportunity CELAC Summit 2017 Dominican Republic 12
Thank You Telephone: +1(868) 662-2002 Ext 85362; 85360; 85359 Email: DiplomaticAcademy@sta.uwi.edu Website: http://sta.uwi.edu/iir/academy.asp 13