Future Automation Scenarios

Future Automation Scenarios Francesca Lucchi University of Bologna Madrid, 05 th March 2018 AUTOPACE Project Close-Out Meeting. 27th of March, 2018, Brussels 1

Future Automation Scenarios: Introduction WP02 Future Automation Scenarios WP03 Competences and Training WP04 Safety and Performance WP05 Conclusions Tasks: P02.01 - State of the Art and Concept of Operations P02.02 - Define AUTOPACE scenarios and a set of operative conditions 2

Future Automation Scenarios: Objectives & Scope Identify and describe the operational context at AUTOPACE horizon when a highly automated environment is expected. To achieve a common understanding on the foreseen 2050 concept of operations and the problems to be addressed in AUTOPACE, including automation features that should be analysed according to the expected automation needs and trends. To deliver the full set of AUTOPACE Scenarios that represent the foreseen 2050 concept of operations and skills required to operate in such scenarios, these scenarios will consider nominal and non-nominal (e.g. automation failures) situations.

Future Automation Scenarios: Activity & Work Done Definition of 2035 & 2050 Concept of Operations Development and description of Automation Scenarios Identification of nonnominal conditions Preliminary skills analysis

2050 AUTOPace ConOps & Scenarios CASE STUDY METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH + CASE STUDY ANALISYS

Methodology and Approach 2035 AUTOPACE ConOps definition Literature research AUTOPACE requirements (execution phase, en-route environment, ATC perspective) 2050 AUTOPACE ConOps definition Literature research AUTOPACE requirements AUTOPACE scenarios identification and description Automation Scenarios Non-nominal situations Preliminary identification of skills, aptitudes and knowledge

AUTOPACE References #1 Flightpath 2050 Vision DG for Research and Innovation, DG for Mobility and Transport (EU) #8 SESAR European ATM Master Plan to SJU (ENAIRE) SJU (Public) 2015 Available (Public) #9 NextGen Implementation Plan FAA (Public) 2015 Available (Public) #10 B04.02-D124 SESAR Concept of Operations Step 1 Final Edition SJU (Foreground) 2015 Available for AUTOPACE members after official request to SJU (ENAIRE) after official request #11 B04.02-D105 SESAR Concept Of SJU (Foreground) 2014 Available for Operations Step 2 Edition 2014 AUTOPACE members Id Name Author Creation Status Id Name Author Creation to SJU (ENAIRE) Status 2011 Available (Public) #12 04.02-D98 Flightpath 2050 En Vision Route Detailed SJU DG (Foreground) for Research 2015 2011 Available (Public) for Operational Description and Innovation, DG AUTOPACE members Step1_update for Mobility and after official request Transport (EU) to SJU (ENAIRE) #2 SRIA Executive Summary ACARE 2012 Available (Public) #13 #2 04.02-D08 SRIA Executive WP4 Summary Detailed SJU ACARE (Foreground) 2014 2012 Available (Public) for Operational Description (DOD) AUTOPACE members #3 Out of the Box Ideas about the ACARE 2007 Available (Public) #3 Out of the Box Ideas about the ACARE 2007 Available (Public) Step 2 after official request future of air transport future of air transport to SJU (ENAIRE) #4 From Air Transport System 2050 EREA 2012 Available (Public) #4 From Air Transport System 2050 EREA 2012 Available (Public) #14 The Concept of Operations at a SESAR Definition 2007 Available (Public) Vision Vision glance Phase (Public) #5 EREA vision for the future EREA 2010 Available (Public) #5 EREA vision for the future EREA 2010 Available (Public) #15 D3 Towards the future generation Towards ATM Target the future Concept generation SESAR Definition 2007 Available (Public) of Air Transport System (2010) of Air Transport System (2010) Phase (Public) #16 #6 Delivering the future - global Airbus 2011 Available (Public) #6 ICAO Delivering Global the Air future Navigation - global Plan Airbus ICAO 2011 2013 Available (Public) 2013 2028 (Doc. 9750, 4th ed.) market forecast 2011-2030 market forecast 2011-2030 #17 State of Harmonisation NextGEN/SESAR 2015 (Public) #7 HALA! Position Paper SJU (Foreground) 2014 Available #7 HALA! for Position Paper SJU (Foreground) 2014 Available for Document AUTOPACE members AUTOPACE members after official request after official #18 request 201306-challenges-of-growth- EUROCONTROL 2013 Available (Public) to SJU (ENAIRE) to SJU (ENAIRE) 2013-task-4 2035 #8 SESAR European ATM Master SJU (Public) 2015 Available (Public) #8 SESAR European ATM Master SJU (Public) 2015 Available #19 (Public) 201306-challenges-of-growth- EUROCONTROL 2013 Available (Public) Plan Plan 2013-task-7 2050 #9 NextGen Implementation Plan FAA (Public) 2015 Available (Public) #9 NextGen Implementation Plan FAA (Public) 2015 Available #20 (Public) Boeing_Current_Market_Outloo Boeing 2015 Available (Public) #10 #10 B04.02-D124 SESAR Concept of SJU (Foreground) 2015 Available k_2015 B04.02-D124 SESAR Concept of SJU (Foreground) 2015 Available for for Operations Step 1 Final Edition AUTOPACE members Operations Step 1 Final Edition AUTOPACE #21 members PRR 2015, Performance Review EUROCONTROL 2016 after Available official (Public) request after official request Report, An Assessment of Air to SJU (ENAIRE) to SJU (ENAIRE) traffic Management in Europe #11 #11 B04.02-D105 SESAR Concept Of SJU (Foreground) 2014 Available during B04.02-D105 for the Calendar SESAR Concept Year 2015, Of SJU (Foreground) 2014 Available for Operations Step 2 Edition 2014 AUTOPACE members June Operations 2016 Step 2 Edition 2014 AUTOPACE members after official request after official request to SJU (ENAIRE) to SJU (ENAIRE) #12 04.02-D98 En Route Detailed SJU (Foreground) 2015 Available for #12 04.02-D98 En Route Detailed SJU (Foreground) 2015 Available Operational for Description AUTOPACE members Operational Description AUTOPACE members Step1_update after official request 5 th of March, Step1_update 2018, Madrid after official request

AUTOPace ConOps AUTOPACE CONOPs Operational Environment and Procedures Systems Personnel Operational Characteristics Operating Method Performance Expectations

Air Traffic Forecast Air Space Management 4D Contract 2050 AUTOPACE ConOps: Operational Environment and Procedures Demography evolution, global economy, new aviation technologies, environmental impact, expected demand, advance in ground transport Forecast is characterised by moderate economic growth. It exhibits a medium level of growth with 18.6 million IFR movements in Europe by 2050 (2 times more than in 2012 and 1.3 times more than in 2035) Demand Capacity Balancing processes will evolve towards bigger airspace sectors and incorporate the use of dynamically shaped sectors and sectorisations Free Routing and flexible use of airspace Evolution from a purely tactical intervention model towards a more strategic trajectory management concept Automatic handling of the flight management of all air traffic participants by a central ATM system, ensuring safe separation and optimisation of all flights, according to global performance criteria All 4D contracts are generated by the central ATM system. Each contract is issued for the entire flight, including ground operations, and is conflictfree. The aircraft are in charge of executing their contracts and the ground system monitors them

AUTOPace ConOps AUTOPACE CONOPs Operational Environment and Procedures Systems Personnel Operational Characteristics Ground Systems Operating Method Airborne Equipment Performance Expectations Information Management

Decision Support System Tools HMI 2050 AUTOPACE ConOps: Systems A higher degree of automation is needed to cope with the increasing complexity DSS will support all human decision making of the Air Traffic Services in fulfilling their tasks in a safe and efficient way DSS will enhance data processing and information presentation capabilities; human and DSS would act together as one unique agent towards the environment MTCDT (Medium Term Conflict Detection Tool) TCT (Tactical Controller Tool) Manage false conflicts, missed conflicts and conflicts very close to the loss of separation mainly due to unexpected manoeuvres Satellite based navigation, communication and surveillance - Decomplexing tools - Data link, SWIM, automation of communications Human Machine Interface technologies allow human participants to perceive and interact with the results of that higher level of information processing HMI support controller's Situational Awareness Improved interaction and visualization techniques support operators to execute their functions and allow them to be aware of the systems status at all times

AUTOPace ConOps AUTOPACE CONOPs Operational Environment and Procedures Systems Personnel Operational Characteristics Ground Systems Actors and Roles Operating Method Airborne Equipment Degree of Automation Performance Expectations Information Management Responsibilities

2050 AUTOPACE ConOps: Personnel Novel 2050 ATC concepts will lead to an evolution from a purely tactical intervention model towards a more strategic trajectory management concept. ATM as a socio technical multi agent controlled/managed process, modelled as a system composed of different interconnected actors and different agents working into a collaborative or orchestrated framework. It is expected a progressive introduction of more autonomous and decentralized systems, until full automation. The definition of personnel role and responsibilities is connected to the real future automation level, since it is crucial to determine how the ATCo performs every task and who is (ATCo or ATC system) responsible to do them.

2050 AUTOPace Scenarios Scenario ATC Controller Main Function ATC System High Automation Takes the role of a supervisor of the system operation Assumes the major ATC controller responsibilities Medium Automation Decides which action to apply from the set of proposals suggested by the system Proposes different alternatives of the actions to be performed

Operational Scenarios Development Define processes and services Identify Actors and Roles Responsibilities allocation System requirements Identification of non-nominal conditions Description of those related to the ATC function and the ATC Controller activity AUTOPACE focuses on ATC Controler Identification of automated, partially automated and non automated tasks Identification of ATC Support Tools How functionalities are allocated System Failures Responsibilities re-allocation How information is presented

System s Activities Scenario 1 - High Automation The system assumes the major ATC controller responsibilities, in order to reduce the workload of the controller Manage traffic Maintains separation Sequence and synchronize traffic Receive information from ATC tools Issue tactical actions Coordinates with other units Informs the ATC controller about its performances and forecasts The ATC System develops the necessary actions for the orderly and safely traffic management, informing the ATC controller of the actions developed if requested, while the ATC controller maintains a monitoring function

Scenario 1 - High Automation The ATC system is responsible for the Trajectory Management: it negotiates and revises trajectories The ATC system acts with strategies and operating methods defined previously, using information from ATC tools New technologies and tools support coordination dialogue, transfer of flights, and allow ATC controller to maintain and monitor traffic The ATC controller has access to all information received by the ATC system and ATC tools The ATC controller maintains the situational awareness in monitor the actions on trajectories that the ATC system will perform The ATC controller has to be trained on dynamic sector, with variable conflict geometry as well as on Flight Centred Air Traffic Services Ground-based safety nets are an integral part of the ATM system Enhanced HMI supports ATC controller in handling the increased amount of data and monitoring the traffic evolution

System s Activities ATC Controller s Activities Scenario 2 - Medium Automation The system proposes different alternatives, in order to reduce the workload of the controller Receive information from ATC tools Manage traffic Propose tactical actions Propose coordination actions Maintains separation Sequence and synchronize traffic Select and issue tactical actions Support the ATC controller on performances and forecasts Coordinates with other units The ATC tools will propose actions to be performed, and the ATC controller, who has access to all information received by the ATC system, will decide which action to apply from the set of proposals suggested by the system

Scenario 2 - Medium Automation The ATC controller assumes the major responsibilities, while the ATC system remains as a support tool for the controller The ATC controller has access to all information received by the ATC system, and receives the results of all ATC tools to be able to decide which the best solution is proposed to perform the required actions The ATC controller maintains the task to monitor, negotiate and revise trajectories, using information from ATC tools The ATC controller will create and maintain the situational awareness to take actions on the trajectory management, supported by tools and adequate HMI The shift of ATC controllers task to move from short-term monitoring to supervisory and reactive activity when needed, requires powerful assistance as it regards monitoring and alerts with the adequate HMI The ATC system allows ATC controllers to conduct screen-toscreen coordination between adjacent ATC centers/sectors and to support coordination dialogue. Coordination tasks will be proposed by the ATC system and approved by the ATC controller ATC tools support ATC controller actions and responsibilities New enhanced HMI is assisting the ATC controller in handling the increased amount of data

Future Automation Scenarios: Responsibilities sharing High Automation APPLY analyses the situation, decides and implements the most suitable solution on his own according to available information ATC SYSTEM PROPOSE proposes to the ATC controller a set of actions to implement SUPPORT supports the ATC controller decisions by providing him/her necessary information Medium Automation

Future Automation Scenarios: Responsibilities sharing Medium Automation APPLY analyses the situation, decides and implements the most suitable solution from those proposed by the ATC system according to the information from the ATC tools ATC CONTROLLER High Automation APPROVE once the ATC system has proposed a solution for the conflict; the ATC controller must approve it in order to be implemented MONITOR the controller has to monitor ATC system behaviour to prevent system deviations, when it is assuming the major tactical actions

Responsibilities sharing Task High Automation Medium Automation ATC System ATC Controller ATC System ATC Controller Identify conflict risks Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Provide Flight Information Provide Alerting Services Early conflict detection and resolution Plan conflict-free flight path Provide & Apply Separation Implement solution strategies Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Propose Approve Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Apply Monitor Support Apply Apply Monitor Propose Approve

Responsibilities sharing Task Input tactical trajectory changes Determine the needs for Complexity Solution Measures Communicate with pilots via Data link Monitor activities (air situation, weather, information, etc.) High Automation Medium Automation ATC System ATC Controller ATC System ATC Controller Apply Monitor Support Apply Propose Approve Support Apply Apply Monitor Support Apply Apply Monitor Support Apply

Scenario Description Case Study: Early Conflict Resolution System Assessing the traffic situation Detecting potential medium/short term conflicts 30 minutes look ahead horizon Trying to solve them by applying small adjustments in order to satisfy given CTO Separation assurance Identification of alternative coordination conditions (level, route, profile etc.) RBT/RMT revision (route, waypoints, altitude/time constraints)

Early Conflict Resolution System: Activities sharing Activity High Automation Level System requirements Traffic assessment Medium Automation Level System requirements Traffic assessment Traffic prediction tools Traffic prediction tools 1 Warning messages Warning messages Perform planning conflict detection DSS including trajectory forecast tools DSS including trajectory forecast tools 2 Analyse conflict resolution options Automatically detection of changes in respect to planned trajectories Conflict resolution process automatically starts Communication of the proposed solution to the ATCO Detection of changes in respect to planned trajectories Conflict resolution process automatically starts Communication of some solutions to ATCO 3 Determine ATC system CTO proposals DSS to define which are the most critical flights DSS to provide suggestions on trajectories adjustments DSS to define which are the most critical flights DSS to provide suggestions on trajectories adjustments

Early Conflict Resolution System: Activities sharing Activity 4 Assess ATC system resolution applicability 5 Highlight pending ATC system conflict to ATC controllers 6 Perform inter-sector coordination to revise trajectory High Automation Level System requirements Simulation tools to evaluate the best solution Performances comparison are made among the possible solutions Visualization tools to make ATCO aware of the proposed solution Automatic highlight of any pending conflict resolution Continuous automatic updating of information Medium Automation Level System requirements Simulation tools to evaluate the best solution Performances comparison are made among the possible solutions Information communication tools to provide the ATCO Automatic highlight of any pending conflict resolution Continuous updating of information

Early Conflict Resolution System: Activities sharing Activity 7 Revise trajectory for separation purposes 8 Advise ATC controller 9 Improve situational awareness 10 Monitor conflict resolution High Automation Level System requirements Continuous automatic trajectories revision Automatic information updating to improve the situational awareness Automatic monitoring of the developments of the conflict resolution process Medium Automation Level System requirements Continuous trajectories revision Remind to update information to improve the situational awareness Data analysis tools to make the ATCO aware about the developments of the conflict resolution process

Skills Scenario 1 Full Automation: The ATC Controller will only remain as a supervisor of the behaviour of the System The skills and aptitudes that the ATC controller will need are keeping an active role while supervising, a continuous degree of attention and an adequate level of confidence on the System but avoiding over-confidence effect Scenario 2 Medium Automation: The ATC Controller should have are a good situational awareness to be able to identify whether the proposed solution is suitable or not He/she also needs to be in the loop to assure that the chosen solution is appropriate

Non-Nominal Situations Non Nominal Situations Lack of functionalities Sub- systems failures Critical changes in ATC service provision ATC Controller should provide the separation assurance under his responsibility Systems Failures whose impact on controller s activity is more relevant has been selected for non-nominal situations definition Could the ATC responsibilities still be carried out? Would the ATC controller need to change their mode of operation? Will the responsibilities allocation suffer a change with regards to the nominal automation scenario?

Automation Scenarios: Non-Nominal Situation System Failure Failure impact on Controller Performances Effects on Controller activity Conflict Detection and Resolution System Failure Complexity Management System Failure System Supported Coordination Tool Failure

Non-Nominal Situation System Failure Conflict Detection and Resolution Complexity Management System System Supported Coordination Tool Failure Impact on Controller Performances The controller will have to search for conflicts each time an aircraft is incorporated into their area of responsibility. The controller will have to solve more conflicts than in nominal situations De-complexing measures would not be implemented thus the controller might have peaks of workload that were not solved in the planning phase. Transfer control of aircraft would stop being automated and back to former coordination procedures will be required. Effects on Controller activity More workload resulting from the need of more tactical intervention and the lack of support for conflict detection and resolution More workload resulting from the lack of implementation of the complexity management Change on the way to implement the coordination, as it will not be supported by the system. Unknown effect on Workload.

Achievements Baseline Scenario 1 High Automation Non-nominal Situation 1.1 Conflict Detection and Resolution fails Non-nominal Situation 1.2 Complexity Management System fails Non-nominal Situation 1.3 System Supported Coordination fails. Baseline Scenario 2 Medium Automation Non-nominal Situation 2.1 Conflict Detection and Resolution fails Non-nominal Situation 2.2 Complexity Management System fails Non-nominal Situation 2.3 System Supported Coordination fails.

Achievements on Future Automation Scenarios Definition of ATC controllers skills Operational context of 2050 ATC AUTOPACE non-nominal situations 2050 ConOps and automation feature AUTOPACE Scenarios

Future Developments on Future Automation Scenarios The overall change in operations and scenarios can not be pursuit without a proper change in regulation / responsibility sharing Reference nonnominal conditions are considered to change ATCo workload and activity different situations could be developed According to not yet foreseen advancements in ConOps Scenarios have been developed to cope AUTOPACE objectives Execution phase, enroute environment, ATC perspective

Future Automation Scenarios Strength Weakness Opportunities Threats

Strength Weakness Opportunities Threats Future Automation Scenarios Identificati on of scenarios