Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit November Ian Smith MD & CEO

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Transcription:

Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit November 2008 Ian Smith MD & CEO

Disclaimer Forward Looking Statements These materials include forward looking statements. Forward looking statements inherently involve subjective judgement and analysis and are subject to significant uncertainties, risks and contingencies, many of which are outside of the control of, and may be unknown to, the company. Actual results and developments may vary materially from expressed in these materials. The types of uncertainties which are relevant to the company may include, but are not limited to, commodity prices, political uncertainty, changes to the regulatory framework which applies to the business of the company and general economic conditions. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward looking statements. Forward looking statements in these materials speak only at the date of issue. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law or any relevant stock exchange listing rules, the company does not in providing this information undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the forward looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The information in this presentation that relates to Mineral Resources, Ore Reserves and Exploration Results is based on information compiled by Colin Moorhead, EGM Minerals for Newcrest Mining who is a Member of The Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, and a full-time employee of Newcrest Mining Limited. Mr Moorhead has sufficient experience which is relevant to the styles of mineralization and types of deposits under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the Australian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. Mr Moorhead consents to the inclusion in the report of the matters based on this information in the form and context in which it appears. 2

Newcrest Top 10 global gold producer Market Capitalisation US$7B (A$10B) Proven ability to find, build and operate world class mines 2007/2008 Financial Year Performance Strong profit and cash flow Balance sheet restructured New growth projects added 48% lift in gold equivalent resources over past 12 months 33% lift in gold equivalent reserves over past 12 months 3

Secure Debt Position and Low Gearing Gearing level at 30 June 2008 was 8% Gearing level is expected to be around 15% in June 09 when Ridgeway Deeps and Hidden Valley are completed Future gearing levels not expected to exceed 15 20% Credit objective of investment grade equivalent (BBB+) Drawn Debt Maturity (Profile approximates 15% gearing level) 150 US$M 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Maturity Date 4 Approximately US$150M drawn on bilaterals (maturing 2010) Over US$800 million of undrawn debt facilities (maturing 2010) US$350 million US private placement maturing post 2010

Financial Results Summary FY 08 Cash Cost (after by product credits) down 7% Strong Underlying Profit up 158% 300 A$/oz 280 261 600 A$m 493.9 Underlying profit 200 400 Statutory profit 100 200 191.2 72 134.3 0 FY07 FY08 0 FY07 FY08 Record Cash Flow from Operations up 163% Return on Capital Employed up 75% 1200 1000 A$m 1,018 25 20 percent 21 800 600 400 200 0 387 FY07 FY08 15 10 5 0 12 FY07 FY08 5

Reserve Ratios 5 th November 2008 EV/Equivalent Reserves US$/oz 200 187 150 156 155 152 129 Average: US$132/oz 107 107 100 61 50 0 Goldcorp Newmont Kinross Barrick Lihir Newcrest Anglogold Gold Fields 6 1. Based on 5 th November 2008 share prices 2. Enterprise Value is market capitalisation plus net debt 3. Equivalent ounces calculated on US$600/oz for gold and US$1.70/lb for copper

Summary of September 2008 Quarterly Record Quarterly Gold production up 12% to 485,978oz Cadia Hill, Gosowong & Telfer Underground all had record quarters Full year production & cost guidance maintained for all sites Operations Telfer cost reduction program on track Cadia Valley water storage above 50% capacity at over 1 year s supply 7

Summary of September 2008 Quarterly Strong project activity Ridgeway Deeps & Hidden Valley on track for first production mid 2009 Exploration Mineralisation extended at Kencana On track for initial Resources in December at : - 1. O Callaghans 2. Namosi 3. Nambonga North 8

Quarterly Cash Cost Comparison (US$/oz) Global Gold Industry Newcrest 500 450 400 403 421 449 458 US$ per Ounce 350 300 250 279 258 261 256 200 203 150 100 Sept 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Dec 07 Mar 08 June 08 Sept 08 Sept 08 Global Gold Industry per GFMS At exchange rate of 0.70 At Quarter average exchange rates. At exchange rate of 0.70 and excluding stripping adjustments 9

Current Outlook Gold Copper $/oz $/oz $/lb $/lb 1,500 1,500 4.5 4.5 1,400 1,400 4.0 4.0 1,300 1,300 3.5 3.5 1,200 1,200 3.0 3.0 1,100 1,100 2.5 2.5 1,000 1,000 2.0 2.0 900 900 1.5 1.5 800 800 1.0 1.0 700 700 0.5 0.5 600 600 1/06/2008 1/07/2008 1/08/2008 1/09/2008 1/10/2008 1/11/2008 A$ Gold US$ Gold 0.0 0.0 1/06/2008 1/07/2008 1/08/2008 1/09/2008 1/10/2008 1/11/2008 A$ Copper US$ Copper ~ 80% of Revenue is Derived from Gold 10

Newcrest Operations & Projects Gosowong (82.5%) Hidden Valley & Wafi/Golpu (Earning 50%) Cracow Telfer & (70%) O Callaghans) (100%) Cadia Valley (100%) Namosi (Earning 65%) N 1000km 11

Newcrest Opportunities Growth Construction Hidden Valley Ridgeway Deeps Cadia East Feasibility Studies Telfer Trough Cave Gosowong Expansion Marsden Waisoi Wafi/Golpu Concept Studies Big Cadia Telfer Stockworks Corridor Advanced Gabbs Sullivan Kencana Growth Nambonga North O Callaghan s West Dome Deeps Yilgangi Waivaka Exploration Targets Initial Camp Dome Croy Bloom Coalstoun Gosowong South Area Hidden Valley Area Horse Mountain Mount Mackenzie 12 Represents size of or potential size of gold equivalent ounces

13 Cadia Valley

Cadia Valley Ridgeway Sublevel Cave Cadia Hill Ridgeway Deeps Block Cave Cadia East Panel Cave Resource of 83 million gold equivalent ounces (Approximation calculated at Gold: US$600 per ounce; Copper: US$1.70 per pound) 14

Cadia Valley - Ridgeway Deeps Production to commence mid 2009 Cash cost A$82/oz (Cu price of US$1.50/lb) Production profile over 8 years Gold ~ 1.6Moz Copper ~ 210kt Potential for second block cave being assessed On schedule and budget Over 90% capital committed Contingency untouched Engineering 100% complete Mine development is over 50% complete Potential for 2 nd Block Cave 15

Cadia Valley - Cadia East Pre-feasibility study completed December 08 Surface Development of Australia s largest underground mine Investigation Drives World record underground development rates at low cost CEU Decline Gold Mineral Resource 28Moz Ore Reserve 15.8Moz Lift 0 Copper Mineral Resource 5.57Mt Ore Reserve 2.68Mt Orebody Open 400m Lift 1 4650RL First Appreciable Production expected in 2012 400m Orebody Open Mine life of 30+ years Lift 2 4250RL Newcrest resource & reserve estimate as at 30 June 2008 Orebody Open 16

Cadia Valley - Production Profile 34.0 32.0 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 Ore Milled (Mt) 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 Cadia Hill Cadia East 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Ridgeway Ridgeway Deeps Ridgeway Deeps 2 - FY 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Gold Production Koz +500 +575 +650 +750 Copper Production kt +55 +75 +90 +105 17

18 Telfer

Telfer Cost Reduction Positive Outcomes :- 2008/09 cost savings of $25M-30M Ongoing annual cost savings of $45M - $50M per annum Cash costs ($M) will reduce to approximately 2007/2008 levels Ongoing annual cash costs below 2007/08 level (before inflation) Brings Telfer to middle of the cash cost curve for the industry (US$450 - $470/oz = industry mid point after by-product credits) 19

Telfer - O Callaghans Advanced Exploration Target surface Poly-metallic deposit 300m Tungsten Untested Skarn Mineralisation Untested Molybdenum Lead/Zinc Section 500 Metres Copper Plan View OR14090 OR18082 OR16091 ORC004 ORC006 ORC001 ORC002 OCC9101 ORC005 500metres ORC003 ORC20069 Exploration Target 120Mt Gold equivalent of 3-3.50g/t 2.5km strike length and open Depth 300m Initial resource in December 2008 quarter Gold equivalent calculated on the following US$ metal prices Pb $0.60/Ib, Zn $0.75/Ib, Mo $13/Ib, W $12/Ib, Cu $1.70/Ib, Au $600/oz 20

21 Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea Grasberg Porgera PNG JV Projects Madang Lihir New Britain FLY PLATFORM Aure Trough Lae Lae OK Tedi Port Moresby Porphyry Belt Mining Locations 22

Papua New Guinea - Hidden Valley Production scheduled mid-2009 >250koz Au & 3.6Moz Ag pa 1 st quartile cash costs 14 year mine life Reserves (100%) (1) 2.89 Moz Au & 43.9 Moz Ag Resources (100%) (1) 5.37 Moz Au & 83.7 Moz Ag (1) Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. JORC compliant estimate as at 30 June 2008. For details refer to Harmony website. 23

Papua New Guinea - Wafi-Golpu District Diatreme Breccia Wafi Resource (1) 103Mt @ 1.88g/t Au 6.2Moz Au Nambonga North Resource By end December 08 Western Zone Target Ongoing drilling for resource Golpu Resource (1) 163Mt @ 0.57g/t Au 1.08% Cu 3.0Moz Au, 1.76Mt Cu Open Open Open 500m (1) Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. JORC compliant estimate as at 30 June 2008. For details refer to Harmony website. 24

Gosowong Indonesia PHILIPPINES MAL AYSIA Gosowong SUMATRA MALAYSIA KALIM ANTAN MANADO TERNATE SULAWESI BACAN HALMAHERA JAKARTA UJUNG PANDA NG IRIAN JAYA JAVA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 0 400 Kms AUSTRALI A 25

Gosowong Kencana Expansion Very high grade gold deposit Reserve grade 29g/t Resource grade 35g/t Full project approval in December 2008 Production from K2 will commence by mid 2009 Total production greater than 400,000oz p.a. Mine life over 6 years 26

Gosowong - Near Mine Exploration Existing Mine Decline K1 Resource (including mined) = 1.8 Moz Target 0.2 0.6 Moz 26m (15.7m true) @ 45 g/t Au 3.3m (3m true) @ 50 g/t Au Target 0.2 0.6 Moz 22.3m (14.5m true) @ 21 g/t Au OPEN AT DEPTH High grade intercept 13.1m @ 170 g/t Au 0 100m 27

28 Fiji

Fiji - Namosi - Concept Fiji 210m @ 0.24g/t Au, 1.0% Cu 259.8m @ 0.21g/t Au, 0.79% Cu 240m @ 0.16g/t Au, 0.57% Cu 221m @ 0.17g/t Au, 0.50% Cu 195m @ 0.08g/t Au, 0.57% Cu NSW002 NADI Viti Levu Island Waisoi Deposits 50km SUVA Newcrest acquiring 65% interest (at A$21.5M spend) 200m NSW004 NSW001 751m @ 0.18g/t Au, 0.36% Cu (0.1% Cu cutoff) (56-807m) Incl. 459m @ 0.28g/t Au, 0.45% Cu (134-593m) (0.3% Cu cutoff) Incl. 80m @ 0.78g/t Au 0.80% Cu (497-577m) Lease area 725 sq km 14 other prospects within lease area Waisoi deposits contain a Mineral Resource1 estimated by Placer in excess 900Mt at 0.43% copper & 0.14g/t gold Recent drilling extended mineralisation & identified higher grade zone Newcrest resource in December 2008 29 (1) Newcrest s current exploration is not yet sufficient to define a Mineral Resource.

Investment Case for Newcrest Unhedged gold producer Low gearing & strong balance sheet Strong operating cashflow Cashflow & profit margin expansion Long life, low cost operations Growth options Development project portfolio Expansion of exploration opportunities 30

31 Appendices

Margin Expansion FY 09 Profit Sensitivity Parameter Movement EBIT Impact Gold price US$10/oz A$17M Copper Price US$0.05c/lb A$9M FX Rate US$0.01 A$20M Oil Price US$10/barrel A$6M 32

Gold Resources Up 28% 2007 55.2 MILLION OUNCES 2008 70.6 MILLION OUNCES Gosowong, 6% Gosowong, 4% CVO, 56% Telfer, 36% CVO, 55% Telfer, 28% Cracow, 1% Marsden, 1% PNG, 10% Cracow, 1% Marsden, 2% 33 1. Resource estimates are based on Newcrest s production interest 2 Prices used in Resource estimate for gold were US$600/oz and US$1.70lb for copper 3 Namosi yet to be included 4 A 50% share of PNG Harmony Gold joint venture resources have been included. Initial payment for these assets occurred on 7 August 2008

Copper Resources Up 62% 2007 5.65 MILLION TONNES 2008 9.18 MILLION TONNES CVO, 81% Telfer, 12% CVO, 75% Telfer, 8% Marsden, 7% Marsden, 7% PNG, 10% 34 1. Resource estimates are based on Newcrest s production interest 2 Prices used in Resource estimate for gold were US$600/oz and US$1.70lb for copper 3 Namosi yet to be included 4 A 50% share of PNG Harmony Gold joint venture resources have been included. Initial payment for these assets occurred on 7 August 2008

Gold Reserves Up 20% 2007 33.2 MILLION OUNCES 2008 40.0 MILLION OUNCES Gosowong, 6% CVO, 48% Gosowong, 7% CVO, 53% Cracow, 1% Telfer, 44% Telfer, 36% PNG, 5% 1. Reserve estimates are based on Newcrest s production interest 2. Prices used in Reserve estimate were US$550/oz for gold an US$1.50/lb for copper 3. A 50% share of PNG Harmony Gold joint venture reserves have been included. Initial payment for these assets occurred on 7 August 2008 35

Copper Reserves Up 54% 2007 2.70 MILLION TONNES 2008 4.15 MILLION TONNES CVO, 77% CVO, 80% Telfer, 13% Telfer, 20% PNG, 10% 1. Reserve estimates are based on Newcrest s production interest 2. Prices used in Reserve estimate were US$550/oz for gold and US$1.50/lb for copper 3. A 50% share of PNG Harmony Gold joint venture reserves have been included. Initial payment for these assets occurred on7 August 2008 36

Operating Cashflow in FY 2007/2008 Sources of Cash Uses of Cash Capital, Exploration and Dividend, $457M Operating Cashflow, $1,018M Change in Cash, $44M Equity Issue, $2019M USD Bilateral Debt Proceeds, $70M Hedgebook Buyback, $1,629M Debt Repayment, $977M 37

Guidance 5 Year Production and Revenue Estimated Gold Equivalent Ounces Estimated Gold Revenue % 2.8 Million Ounces 100 % 2.7 80 2.6 2.5 2.4 60 40 2.3 20 2.2 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 0 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 Gold @ US$750/oz Copper @ US$2.50/lb Pre - realisation Post - realisation 38

Guidance 5 Year Cash Costs Modest increases in unit cash costs are expected until Cadia East production ramps up When Cadia East is ramping production in FY13 group unit cash costs after by-product credits will be approximately equal to the FY09 level (if copper is at US$2.50/lb in FY13) Newcrest should maintain or improve its position on the global cash cost curve over the 5 year period 39

Guidance 5 Year Capital Capital peaks in 2008/9 before halving for the next two years and then further reducing to a third of 2008/9 levels for the remaining two years of the 5 Year Plan Expectation of excess cash to be available over the 5 Year Plan period for further growth 40