HEALTH SECTOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT For: Mid North Coast Local Health District Report prepared by: April 2013
Table of Contents Introduction 3 Executive Summary 4 Output 5 Value-Added 7 Workforce 9 Wages & Salaries 16 Impacts on Regional Economy 18 Page 2
HEALTH SECTOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS Mid North Coast Local Health District Introduction This report has been undertaken in response to a request from the Mid North Coast Local Health District. The Health Care and Social Assistance sector is now the largest employing sector in Australia and in the Mid North Coast region. The sector also makes significant contributions to the Gross Regional Product of the Mid North Coast currently representing 11% of the regions GRP. The report is intended to provide an update on the key economic and employment measures of the Health Care and Social Assistance sector operating in the Mid North Coast Local Health District area. Additional economic modelling is also included to increase the understanding of the economic benefits both direct and indirect to the region from the large workforce employed by the Local Health District. The geographic region used for this report is defined by the Local Health District area including the following Local Government Areas: Port Macquarie-Hastings; Kempsey; Nambucca; Bellingen and Coffs Harbour. Economic analysis in this report was undertaken using REMPLAN (Regional Economic Modelling and Analysis System) and applies REMPLAN economic data for the defined region which includes data sourced from the ABS 2006 and 2011 Census, National Input-Output Tables and ABS Gross State Product (June 2010;2011;2012). In this report, the Health Care & Social Assistance Sector refers to the following two sub-sectors: Health Care Services sector o Hospitals (Except Psychiatric Hospitals); Psychiatric Hospitals; General Practice Medical Services; Specialist Medical Services; Pathology and Diagnostic Imaging Services; Dental Services; Optometry and Optical Dispensing; Physiotherapy Services; Chiropractic and Osteopathic Services; Other Allied Health Services; Ambulance Services and Other Health Care Services. Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sector o Aged Care Residential Services; Other Residential Care Services; Child Care Services and Other Social Assistance Services. Page 3
Executive Summary Economic output by the Health Care & Social Assistance sector in the Mid North Coast has grown by 35.7% to $1.225 billion between June 2011 and June 2012. The Health Care & Social Assistance sector in the Mid North Coast contributed 10.7% of the regions Gross Regional Product (June 2012). The level of value-added (contribution to Gross Regional Product) by the Health Care & Social Assistance sector grew by 20.6% between June 2011 and June 2012. The Healthcare & Social Assistance sector is the largest employer in the Mid North Coast region representing 16.8% of total jobs. Between 2006 and 2011, the size of the Healthcare & Social Assistance sector in the Mid North Coast has grown at 5.2% per annum. The Mid North Coast Local Health District employee base (Full Time Equivalent) grew by 111 between June 2011 and June 2012 it is estimated that this increase supported the creation of an additional 47 jobs in the region and an increase in Gross Regional Product of $13.984 million. A total of 63.2% of the Health workforce in the Mid North Coast are aged between 35-54 years. This is favourable when compared to other sectors, for example, Agriculture which is facing an ageing workforce. The Local Health District total workforce on the Mid North Coast (2,817 full time equivalents) supports an additional 1,188 jobs in the regional economy. The economic output of the Health Care & Social Assistance sector on the Mid North Coast represents 7.5% of the total output by all industry sectors now ranked the 4 th largest industry by output. For every $1 million paid to local suppliers for Hospital infrastructure works the flow-on benefits include: the creation of 6 jobs, increase in Gross Regional Product of $804,000 and increase in output of $2.135m. Page 4
OUTPUT The economic output is a measure of the total gross revenues of the industry sector within the defined region; it is also referred to as total sales or total income. For the geographic region defining the Mid North Coast Local Health District, the output by the Health Care & Social Assistance sector represents 7.5% of the total output of all industries in this region or $1.225b. At a New South Wales level, the Health Care & Social Assistance sector represents 4.3% of the total state output (June 2012). There has been significant growth in output between June 2011 and June 2012 within the MNC LHD area 35.7%. In terms of Industry Ranking, the Health Care & Social Assistance sector has increased its importance to the regional economy increasing from the 7 th and 8 th largest industry by output in 2009/10 to around the 4 th largest industry by output in 2011/12. In addition to the increases in output by this sector, there have also been reductions in both the Manufacturing and Retail Trade sectors contributing to this change in industry ranking. For the MNC Local Health District geographic region: Output by the Health Care & Social Assistance Sector grew by 7.2% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and by 35.7% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by output for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Kempsey, an increase of 41.3% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 38.2% Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of 37.1% Output by the Health Care Services sub-sector grew by 5.2% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and by 21.1% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by output for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of 29.6% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 21.9% Output by the Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector grew by 10.6% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and by 59.2% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by output for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Kempsey, an increase of 90.5% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 68.3% Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of 49.3% Page 5
OUTPUT Output: Health Care & Social Assistance Sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Output 2010/11 Output 2011/12 Output Bellingen 37.931 4.7% 40.624 4.7% 46.952 5.8% Coffs Harbour 329.139 5.9% 352.314 5.9% 486.859 8.2% Kempsey 101.707 5.1% 109.139 5.0% 154.242 7.0% Nambucca 62.935 5.7% 67.898 5.7% 80.189 6.9% Port Macquarie 310.7 5.4% 333.092 5.5% 456.796 7.4% MNC LHD region 842.412 5.5% 903.067 5.6% 1,225.038 7.5% Industry Sector Ranking by Total Output Local Government Area 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Bellingen 8 7 6 Coffs Harbour 7 7 4 Kempsey 7 7 4 Nambucca 8 7 4 Port Macquarie 7 7 5 Output: Health Care Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Output 2010/11 Output 2011/12 Output Bellingen 24.595 3.0% 25.876 3.0% 26.923 3.3% Coffs Harbour 217.106 3.9% 228.419 3.8% 278.340 4.7% Kempsey 62.069 3.1% 65.304 3.0% 70.725 3.2% Nambucca 31.616 2.9% 33.263 2.8% 33.915 2.9% Port Macquarie 195.364 3.4% 205.543 3.4% 266.310 4.3% MNC LHD region 530.75 3.5% 558.405 3.4% 676.213 4.1% Output: Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Output 2010/11 Output 2011/12 Output Bellingen 13.336 1.7% 14.748 1.7% 20.029 2.5% Coffs Harbour 112.033 2.0% 123.895 2.1% 208.519 3.5% Kempsey 39.638 2.0% 43.835 2.0% 83.517 3.8% Nambucca 31.319 2.8% 34.635 2.9% 46.274 4.0% Port Macquarie 115.336 2.0% 127.549 2.1% 190.486 3.1% MNC LHD region 311.662 2.0% 344.662 2.1% 548.825 3.4% Page 6
VALUE-ADDED Value-Added data refers to the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region. Value-added may be described as a measured representation of the value of processing of a product or service from its sourced supply. Value-added is calculated by subtracting local expenditure and expenditure on regional imports from the output generated by an industry sector. Value-Added by industry sector is the major element in the calculation of Gross Regional Product (GRP). The contribution made to Gross Regional Product by the Health Care & Social Assistance sector represented 10.7% of the regions total GRP in the year ending 30 June 2012, representing growth of $142.454million (or 20.6%) from the previous year. This is higher than the New South Wales economy, in which the Health Care & Social Assistance sector contributes 6.4% of Gross State Product. For the MNC Local Health District geographic region: Value-Added by the Health Care & Social Assistance Sector declined by 0.1% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and grew by 20.6% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by value-added for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Kempsey, an increase of 32.0% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 27.3% Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of 17.1% Value-Added by the Health Care Services sub-sector declined by 0.3% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and grew by 2.6% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by value-added for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of 6.3% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 6.4% Value-Added by the Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector was flat between 2009/10 and 2010/11 and grew by 49.5% between 2010/11 and 2011/12. The highest growing Local Government Areas by value-added for the 2010/11 to 2011/12 financial year were: Kempsey, an increase of 88.2% Coffs Harbour, an increase of 66.3% Port Macquarie-Hastings, an increase of33.9% Bellingen, an increase of 21.7% Page 7
VALUE-ADDED Value-Added: Health Care & Social Assistance Sector Local Government Area 2009/10 GRP 2010/11 GRP 2011/12 GRP Bellingen 29.904 7.8% 32.226 7.9% 31.843 8.7% Coffs Harbour 279.393 9.8% 259.364 9.7% 330.257 11.4% Kempsey 86.667 8.6% 80.312 8.5% 106.005 10.3% Nambucca 49.921 9.4% 54.078 9.5% 55.336 10.4% Port Macquarie 245.152 8.7% 264.374 9.0% 309.458 10.3% MNC LHD region 691.037 9.4% 690.354 8.9% 832.899 10.7% Industry Sector Ranking by Total Value-Added Local Government Area 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Bellingen 4 4 4 Coffs Harbour 2 2 2 Kempsey 3 3 3 Nambucca 2 2 2 Port Macquarie 3 3 3 Value-Added: Health Care Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 GRP 2010/11 GRP 2011/12 GRP Bellingen 19.104 5.0% 20.324 5.0% 17.354 4.7% Coffs Harbour 179.406 6.3% 168.637 6.3% 179.413 6.2% Kempsey 51.291 5.1% 48.212 5.1% 45.588 4.4% Nambucca 24.558 4.6% 26.126 4.6% 21.861 4.1% Port Macquarie 151.749 5.4% 161.439 5.5% 171.659 5.7% MNC LHD region 426.108 5.8% 424.738 5.5% 435.875 5.6% Value-Added: Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 GRP 2010/11 GRP 2011/12 GRP Bellingen 10.800 2.8% 11.902 2.9% 14.489 4.0% Coffs Harbour 99.987 3.5% 90.727 3.4% 150.844 5.2% Kempsey 35.376 3.5% 32.100 3.4% 60.417 5.9% Nambucca 25.363 4.8% 27.952 4.9% 33.475 6.3% Port Macquarie 93.403 3.3% 102.935 3.5% 137.799 4.6% MNC LHD region 264.929 3.6% 265.616 3.4% 397.024 5.1% Page 8
WORKFORCE There has been significant growth in the size of the Health Care & Social Assistance sector workforce between 2006 and 2011. In 2006, the workforce totalled 8,679 and represented 14.1% of all jobs in the Mid North Coast Local Health District geographic area. The 2011 Census results show that the workforce is now at 10,928, representing 16.8% of the total regional workforce and a growth rate of 5.2% per annum (2006 to 2011). The Health Care & Social Assistance sector is now the largest employing sector in the Mid North Coast with 16.8% of the workforce this compares with a New South Wales figure of 11.9%. Although the Health Care Services sub-sector represents 53% of this workforce, the Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector has been expanding at a higher rate (7.7% per annum growth from 2006 to 2011 compared with 3.3%). The majority of the Health Care & Social Assistance sector workforce is aged in the 45-54 year category (37% of the workforce) and a further 26.2% are in the 35-44 year age category. The workforce breakdown can be divided into 4-digit industry classifications, as presented in the following chart. The largest employing sub-sectors of the Health Care & Social Assistance sector are Hospitals (24.5% of the total Health Care & Social Assistance sector) and Residential Care Services (22.5%) Mid North Coast* Health Care & Social Assistance Workforce Breakdown by sub-sector (2011 Census) Other Social Assistance Services Child Care Services Social Assistance Services, nfd Residential Care Services Other Health Care Services Allied Health Services Pathology and Diagnostic Imaging Services Medical Services Medical and Other Health Care Services, nfd Hospitals Health Care and Social Assistance, nfd 0 1000 2000 3000 *The Mid North Coast is defined as per the Local Health District region (i.e. it excludes the Greater Taree LGA) Note: nfd refers to not further defined. There was insufficient information provided on the Census to sub-categorise. Page 9
WORKFORCE Jobs: Health Care & Social Assistance Sector Local Government Area 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Bellingen 389 12.1% 418 12.9% 1.5% Coffs Harbour 3,366 14.3% 4,335 17.3% 5.8% Kempsey 1,053 13.0% 1,388 15.9% 6.4% Nambucca 669 14.7% 724 15.3% 1.6% Port Macquarie 3,202 14.3% 4,063 17.5% 5.4% MNC LHD region 8,679 14.1% 10,928 16.8% 5.2% % p.a. growth in jobs ( 06 to 11) Industry Sector Ranking by Employment Local Government Area 2006 2011 Bellingen 1 1 Coffs Harbour 2 1 Kempsey 2 1 Nambucca 2 1 Port Macquarie 2 1 Jobs: Health Care Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Bellingen 230 7.1% 230 7.1% 0.0% Coffs Harbour 2,031 8.6% 2,378 9.5% 3.4% Kempsey 581 7.2% 604 6.9% 0.8% Nambucca 296 6.5% 290 6.1% -0.4% Port Macquarie 1,827 8.2% 2,276 9.8% 4.9% MNC LHD region 4,965 8.0% 5,778 8.9% 3.3% % p.a. growth in jobs ( 06 to 11) Jobs: Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Bellingen 159 4.9% 188 5.8% 3.6% Coffs Harbour 1,335 5.7% 1,957 7.8% 9.3% Kempsey 472 5.8% 784 9.0% 13.2% Nambucca 373 8.2% 434 9.2% 3.3% Port Macquarie 1,375 6.2% 1,787 7.7% 6.0% MNC LHD region 3,714 6.0% 5,150 7.9% 7.7% % p.a. growth in jobs ( 06 to 11) Page 10
Health Care & Social Assistance Sector: Workforce Age & Education Profile broken down by Local Government Area Workforce Breakdown by Age Workforce Breakdown by Level of Education Bellingen Overall increase of 29 jobs in this sector from 2006 to 2011 Significant increases in the 55 years and older workforce demographic. The 55-64 age group grew from 64 jobs to 111 from 2006 to 2011. The 55-64 age group now represents 26.6% of the Bellingen Health Care & Social Assistance workforce, up from 16.5% in 2006. Reductions have occurred in the number of workers aged 25-34 years (from 39 jobs in 2006 down to 17 jobs in 2011) The largest Level of Education category is a Bachelor degree and this has increased from 90 in 2006 (or 23%) to 113 in 2011 (or 27%) Significant increases in Certificate level qualifications 19.2% of the Bellingen Health Care/Social Assistance workforce held Certificate level qualifications in 2006, this has grown to represent 26.5% in 2011. Page 11
Coffs Harbour There have been increases across all age categories in the Coffs Harbour Health workforce between 2006 and 2011, with a total increase of 969 jobs in the 5 years to 2011. The majority of the Coffs Harbour health workforce are in the 45-54 year age group (33.4% of the health workforce) Significant increases have occurred in the 45-54 and 55-64 year age brackets between 2006 and 2011: o 45-54 years increased from 1,252 workers to 1,447 o 55-64 years increased from 536 workers to 936 The workforce employed in the Coffs Harbour Health Care & Social Assistance sector has grown significantly from 2006 to 2011 with an additional 969 jobs. Bachelor degree and above (i.e. GradDip/GradCert/Postgrad) qualified employees represent the largest increase and largest share of the workforce: growing from 1042 to 1526 jobs between 2006 and 2011 and representing 35.2% of the Health sector workforce. There has also been significant increase in Certificate level qualified workers increasing from 787 to 1,115 between 2006 and 2011. Page 12
Kempsey Between 2006 and 2011 there has been a growth of 335 jobs in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector in Kempsey. The majority of the increase has been workers aged 55-64 years (increase of 161) and this age category now represents 22.7% of the workforce. There has been significant growth in the number of workers with Postgraduate degree qualifications increasing from 16 in 2006 to 45 in 2011. Certificate level qualifications comprise the largest share of the workforce (31%) and has experienced the greatest growth between 2006 and 2011 (308 to 430 workers) Page 13
Nambucca The Nambucca health industry workforce grew by 55 positions from 2006 to 2011. The largest age bracket is the 45-54 year old, which comprises 41.6% of Nambucca workforce. There has been significant shifts in the age profile of the Nambucca workforce with the under 45 year olds comprising 38.8% of the workforce in 2006 down to 27.9% in 2011. Certificate qualified personnel comprise the largest share of the workforce, representing 31.3%. This has increased from 23.1% in 2006. There has been a 27% increase in the number of Bachelor degree qualified workers from 2006 to 2011 (124 to 158 workers). Page 14
Port Macquarie There has been significant increases in the Port Macquarie health sector workforce from 2006 to 2011 an additional 861 people employed. The largest increase has occurred in the 55-64 year age bracket increasing from 532 to 871 jobs. As at the 2011 Census, 33.4% of the Port Macquarie- Hastings health workforce where in the 45-54 year age bracket. The level of Postgraduate degree qualified staff have nearly doubled between 2006 and 2011 (115 to 208 staff) Significant increases have also occurred in the Bachelor degree and Certificate level qualified staff: Bachelor degree staff increased from 720 to 984 Certificate level staff increased from 738 to 1134 Page 15
WAGES & SALARIES The Health Care & Social Assistance sector remains the number one industry, in terms of total wages and salaries, for each of the Local Government Areas reported on. This has been consistent across all LGA s for the 09/10, 10/11 and 11/12 periods. The total wages and salaries paid to the Health Care & Social Assistance sector represents 16.7% of the total wages paid across all industries within the MNC LHD geographic region, or $696.6m dollars (financial year ending June 2012). Page 16
WAGES & SALARIES Wages: Health Care & Social Assistance Sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Wages 2010/11 Wages 2011/12 Wages Bellingen 24.484 12.9% 26.712 13.4% 26.556 14.3% Coffs Harbour 212.148 14.4% 231.381 14.7% 275.481 17.2% Kempsey 65.97 13.3% 72.058 13.6% 89.739 16.0% Nambucca 41.381 15.5% 45.345 15.9% 47.057 16.9% Port Macquarie 201.051 13.7% 219.486 14.2% 257.743 16.6% MNC LHD region 545.034 14.0% 594.982 14.4% 696.576 16.7% Industry Sector Ranking by Total Wages & Salaries Paid Local Government Area 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Bellingen 1 1 1 Coffs Harbour 1 1 1 Kempsey 1 1 1 Nambucca 1 1 1 Port Macquarie 1 1 1 Wages: Health Care Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Wages 2010/11 Wages 2011/12 Wages Bellingen 15.163 8.0% 16.357 8.2% 13.607 7.3% Coffs Harbour 133.849 9.1% 144.388 9.2% 140.671 8.8% Kempsey 38.267 7.7% 41.280 7.8% 35.744 6.4% Nambucca 19.492 7.3% 21.026 7.4% 17.140 6.2% Port Macquarie 120.444 8.2% 129.928 8.4% 134.592 8.7% MNC LHD region 327.215 8.4% 352.979 8.5% 341.754 8.2% Wages: Residential Care & Social Assistance Services sub-sector Local Government Area 2009/10 Wages 2010/11 Wages 2011/12 Wages Bellingen 9.321 4.9% 10.355 5.2% 12.949 7.0% Coffs Harbour 78.299 5.3% 86.993 5.5% 134.810 8.4% Kempsey 27.703 5.6% 30.778 5.8% 53.995 9.6% Nambucca 21.889 8.2% 24.319 8.5% 29.917 10.7% Port Macquarie 80.607 5.5% 89.558 5.8% 123.151 7.9% MNC LHD 217.819 5.6% 242.003 5.8% 354.822 8.5% Page 17
Impacts on Regional Economy Scenario 1 MNC LHD Hospital workforce (FTE) increased by 111 from June 2011 to June 2012. Figures supplied by the MNC LHD show that the total full time equivalent hospital based workforce increased by 111 positions between June 2011 and June 2012. From this direct expansion in the economy of 111 jobs in the Health Care Services sector, flow-on industrial effects in terms of local purchases of goods and services are anticipated, and it is estimated that these indirect impacts would result in the gain of a further 16 jobs. This represents a Type 1 Employment multiplier of 1.144. The increase in direct and indirect output and the corresponding creation of jobs in the economy are expected to result in an increase in the wages and salaries paid to employees. A proportion of these wages and salaries are typically spent on consumption and a proportion of this expenditure is captured in the local economy. The consumption effects under this scenario are estimated to further boost employment by 31 jobs. Total employment, including all direct, industrial and consumption effects is estimated to increase by up to 158 jobs. This represents a Type 2 Employment multiplier of 1.423. Page 18
It is estimated that the additional 47 jobs resulting from the increase of 111 full time equivalents in the MNC LHD hospital workforce would be broken down by industry sectors as follows: Industry Sector Total Jobs Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1 Manufacturing 3 Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services 1 Construction 1 Wholesale Trade 2 Retail Trade 10 Accommodation & Food Services 5 Transport, Postal & Warehousing 2 Information Media & Telecommunications 1 Financial & Insurance Services 1 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services 1 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3 Administrative & Support Services 2 Public Administration & Safety 1 Education & Training 3 Health Care & Social Assistance 5 Arts & Recreation Services 1 Other Services 4 The increase in the hospital workforce of 111 FTE s between June 2011 and 2012 within the Mid North Coast Local Health District is also estimated to have increased the Gross Regional Product for the Mid North Coast by $13.984 million. Page 19
Scenario 2 What is the economic contribution from Public Hospital staff to each local region? Figures supplied by the MNC LHD on the size of the full-time equivalent hospital based staff were modelled using REMPLAN to determine the additional jobs in the local economy created by the hospital workforce. For the Mid North Coast Local Health District geographic region, there is an employment Type 2 multiplier of 1.422. For each additional job in the Hospital sector, the total employment effect (after industrial and consumption effects) is 1.422 times. There were 2,457 MNC LHD hospital employees as at 30 June 2012 and this workforce creates an additional 1,036 jobs in the regional economy. The Coffs Harbour local economy enjoys the highest Health sector Type 2 Multiplier (1.437) and therefore for the 1,094 hospital employees, there are an additional 478 jobs created in the local economy. Local Government Area FTE Hospital Workforce (as at 30 June 2012) 1 Additional jobs supported by the hospital workforce 2 Employment Type 2 Multiplier Bellingen 99 30 1.303 Coffs Harbour 1,094 478 1.437 Kempsey 261 93 1.356 Nambucca 112 30 1.348 Port Macquarie 891 366 1.411 Mid North Coast 2,457 1,036 1.422 1: Total Full Time Equivalent MNC LHD Hospital workforce as at 30 June 2012 2: REMPLAN modelling outcome of the number of additional jobs supported in other sectors from the Hospital workforce. That is, the total industrial and consumption employment effects from the Hospital workforce. Page 20
Scenario 3 What is the economic contribution from the Mid North Coast Local Health District workforce to each local region? Figures supplied by the MNC LHD on the size of the full-time equivalent hospital and area office based staff were modelled using REMPLAN to determine the additional jobs in the local economy created by the hospital workforce. For the Mid North Coast Local Health District geographic region, there is an employment Type 2 multiplier of 1.422. For each additional job in the Health Care Services sector, the total employment effect (after industrial and consumption effects) is 1.422 times. There were 2,817 MNC LHD hospital and area office employees as at 30 June 2012 and this workforce creates an additional 1,188 jobs in the regional economy. The Coffs Harbour local economy enjoys the highest Health sector Type 2 Multiplier (1.437) and therefore for the 1,261 hospital and health district employees, there are an additional 551 jobs created in the local economy. Local Government Area FTE Hospital Workforce (as at 30 June 2012) 1 Additional jobs supported by the hospital workforce 2 Employment Type 2 Multiplier Bellingen 99 30 1.303 Coffs Harbour 1,261 551 1.437 Kempsey 276 99 1.356 Nambucca 113 39 1.348 Port Macquarie 1,060 436 1.411 Mid North Coast 2,817 1,188 1.422 1: Total Full Time Equivalent MNC LHD Hospital and Area Office workforce as at 30 June 2012 2: REMPLAN modelling outcome of the number of additional jobs supported in other sectors from the Hospital workforce. That is, the total industrial and consumption employment effects from the Hospital workforce. Page 21
Scenario 4 What are the economic benefits to the region of major upgrades to Hospital sites in the Mid North Coast? For each $1 million of the hospital upgrade investments which are paid to suppliers (within the Construction Industry) in the Mid North Coast region, the following economic benefits are estimated based on REMPLAN modelling. This modelling only refers to the construction phase of the project and for funds which are directed to suppliers in the Mid North Coast region. Impact on Output From a direct increase in output of $1.0 million it is estimated that the demand for intermediate goods and services would rise by $0.813 million. This represents a Type 1 Output multiplier of 1.813. These industrial effects include multiple rounds of flow-on effects, as servicing sectors increase their own output and demand for local goods and services in response to the direct change to the economy. The increases in direct and indirect output would typically correspond to the creation of jobs in the economy. Corresponding to this change in employment would be an increase in the total of wages and salaries paid to employees. A proportion of these wages and salaries are typically spent on consumption and a proportion of this expenditure is captured in the local economy. The consumption effects under this scenario are estimated at $0.322 million. Total output, including all direct, industrial and consumption effects is estimated to increase by up to $2.135 million. This represents a Type 2 Output multiplier of 2.135. Page 22
Impact on Value-Added From a direct increase in output of $1 million the corresponding increase in direct value-added is estimated at $0.308 million. From this direct expansion in the economy, flow-on industrial effects in terms of local purchases of goods and services are anticipated, and it is estimated that these indirect impacts would result in a further increase to value-added of $0.318 million. This represents a Type 1 Value-added multiplier of 2.032. The increase in direct and indirect output and the corresponding boost to jobs in the economy are expected to result in an increase in the wages and salaries paid to employees. A proportion of these wages and salaries are typically spent on consumption and a proportion of this expenditure is capture in the local economy. The consumption effects under this scenario are expected to further boost value-added by $0.177 million. Total value-added, including all direct, industrial and consumption effects is estimated to increase by up to $0.804 million. This represents a Type 2 Value-added multiplier of 2.606. Impact on Employment From a direct increase in output of $1 million the corresponding creation of direct jobs is estimated at 2 jobs. From this direct expansion in the economy, flow-on industrial effects in terms of local purchases of goods and services are anticipated, and it is estimated that these indirect impacts would result in the gain of a further 3 jobs. This represents a Type 1 Employment multiplier of 2.500. The increase in direct and indirect output and the corresponding creation of jobs in the economy are expected to result in an increase in the wages and salaries paid to employees. A proportion of these wages and salaries are typically spent on consumption and a proportion of this expenditure is captured in the local economy. The consumption effects under this scenario are estimated to further boost employment by 1 job. Page 23
Total employment, including all direct, industrial and consumption effects is estimated to increase by up to 6 jobs. This represents a Type 2 Employment multiplier of 3.000. Summary of Impacts Summary of impacts to regional economy from each $1million paid to regional Construction industry suppliers. Impact Summary Direct Effect Industrial Effect Consumption Effect Total Effect Type 1 Multiplier Type 2 Multiplier Output () $1.000 $0.813 $0.322 $2.135 1.813 2.135 Employment 2 3 1 6 2.500 3.000 (Jobs) Value-added () $0.308 $0.318 $0.177 $0.804 2.032 2.606 Page 24