Prairie Drought: Precedents and Prospects Dave Sauchyn Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina Managing Climate and Weather Risks for Peace River District Agriculture, Grande Prairie, Alberta, February 7, 2007
Prairie Drainage Basins Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins -median annual runoffseal River Peace River 1 0 3 Churchill River Athabasca River 0 1 Nelson River Hayes River 0 Alberta Edmonton Manitoba British Columbia Saskatchewan 40 Saskatchewan River 10 Saskatoon Lake Winnipeg Calgary Regina 27 Ontario 62 Assiniboine River Winnipeg Missouri River 1 Winnipeg River Washington 30 Red River Montana Idaho North Dakota Michigan Helena Minnesota Bismarck Oregon Wisconsin South Dakota Wyoming Minneapolis Saint Paul Boise Source: Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A. Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute 0 50 100 Kilometers 200
Beaverlodge, Precipitation departures (mm), 1916-2005 300 200 annual 100 0-100 -200-300 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 200 summer 100 0-100 -200 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
80 Wapiti River, near Grande Prairie, 1961-2001 Departures from Mean Flow (m3 sec-1) 40 0-40 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Tree-Ring Sampling Sites
0-2 -4-6 -8 JJA PDSI < 0, Calgary, 1895-2002 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 r = 0.628-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 TRI (-ve departures), WCH, 1895-2004 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)
Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)
4 PDSI, Calgary, 1341-2004 2 0-2 -4 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Wavelet power spectra
Wavelet power spectrum
Table of Contents Volume 31, Number 4, Winter, 2006 Paleoenvironmental Perspectives on Drought in Western Canada: Introduction Scott St. George and David Sauchyn Long Hydroclimate Records from Tree-Rings in Western Canada: Potential, Problems and Prospects Emma Watson and Brian H. Luckman Tree-Ring Inferences on Water-Level Fluctuations of Lake Athabasca - David M. Meko Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow in the Churchill River Basin, Northern Saskatchewan Antoine L. Beriault and David J. Sauchyn A Comparison of 1858-59 and 2000-01 Drought Patterns, Canadian Prairies W.F. Rannie Forest Fire-Conducive Drought Variability in the Southern Canadian Boreal Forest and Associated Climatology Inferred from Tree Rings Martin P. Girardin, Jacques C. Tardif, Mike D. Flannigan and Yves Bergeron Drought, Tree Rings and Water Resource Management in Colorado C.A. Woodhouse and J.J. Lukas
Change in temperature (C) from baseline (1961-90) 2050s
2006 Temperatures: Departures from Normal (1961-90) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Mean Spring (MAM) Temperature, Grande Prairie, 1922-2005 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
temp C 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Grande Prairie 2050 1.0 CGCM3_47 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 CSIRO_MK3 1.3 ppt ratio ECHAM5_OM GFDL_cm2.0 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1
Climate Scenarios from CGCM3 Grande Prairie, Alberta - Mean Precipitation 2050 100 90 80 70 mm 60 50 40 1961-90 A1B_1 A2_1 B1_1 30 20 10 0 Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December
Climate Scenarios from CGCM3 Grande Prairie, Alberta - Mean Temperature 2050 20 15 10 oc 5 0 1961-90 A1B_1 A2_1 B1_1-5 -10-15 Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December
Closed-basin prairie lakes Water level changes, 1918-2004 (van der Kamp et al.) 12 Whitewater Lake (MB) 10 8 Dry Big Quill Lake (SK) Relative Levels ( m ) 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Manito Lake (SK) Redberry Lake (SK) Upper Mann Lake (AB) Spring Lake (AB) -10-12 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years Dry Little Fish Lake (AB)
Declining Mean and Minimum Streamflow Demuth and Pietroniro 2001
Snow depth standardised anomaly 1 values are 5-year centred averages Eastern slopes/western Prairie snow depth in March 0 0 0.4 Peyto Glacier winter balance - 1-0.4 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995-1 Winter balance departure (m w.e. a ) Demuth and Pietroniro, 2001
Growing Degree Days > 5 0 C Barrow and Yu, 2005 1961-90 2050s
Annual Moisture Index - GDD/Annual Precip Barrow and Yu, 2005 1961-90 2050s
Increasing Drought Frequency Central North America Return Period (years) 0 20 40 60 10 15 20 25 30 Today ~2070 Length of Dry Spell (days) Kharin and Zwiers, 2000
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