Federal Railroad Administration Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study Stakeholder Group Workshop 1 Columbia, South Carolina Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment Scott Richman, CH2M SEPTEMBER 20, 2016
Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment
Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment Presentation and Breakout Session Study Area Overview (Megaregions & Core Based Statistical Areas) Population and Growth (2015-2040) Major Travel Patterns and Demand Potential Key Geographic Features State Plans and Policies Breakout Groups Work Session Opportunities and Constraints Initial Connections 3
Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment Report Assess Existing and Forecast Travel Market Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) 2015 and 2040 population Key destinations Major infrastructure - corridors with highest demand Draw-out Most Important Info from State/Regional Rail and Multimodal Plans Passenger and freight rail, highways, air travel and seaports Major travel patterns and demand Planned passenger rail service/corridors Assess Key Opportunities and Constraints Baseline and market conditions Input from stakeholders 4
Megaregions Emerging planning context Geographic areas combined similar characteristics + mutual interests By 2050 75% of U.S. pop. in 10 Megaregions 3 SE Megaregions: DC-Virginia Piedmont (AL, TN, GA, NC and SC) Florida Transportation inherently Megaregional HPR networks strengthen connectivity in Megaregions 5
Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) CBSAs: Geographic area defined by Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Urban center min. 10,000 pop. Core with surrounding areas tied by commuting CONNECT tool: Uses pop. data (2015 2055) Identifies viable corridors through CBSA pairs analysis CBSA pairs less than 800 miles apart - uses national trip table 6
Population by State SE Region some of highest forecast growth areas in U.S. (2015-2040) SC and TN 33% GA 35% NC 34% VA 23% FL 38% South Carolina Tennessee Georgia North Carolina Virginia Florida 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 2040 (forecast) 2015 Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016 7
CBSAs - 2015 and forecast (2040) population Richmond Jacksonville Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro- -Franklin Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 0 4,000,000 8,000,000 2040 (forecasted) 2015 8
CBSAs Population Growth (2015-2040)* 2015 to 2040 - Percent change Richmond Jacksonville Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% * Core and Participatory States, based on most populous CBSAs (2015). Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016 9
Major Travel Modes and Patterns 10
Amtrak SE Network Route Cities Served Passengers (2015) Auto Train Lorton, Virginia - Sanford, Florida 271,434 Silver Meteor Silver Star Palmetto New York-Miami; New York-Tampa-Miami Daily New York-Savannah 341,999 378,839 206,305 Crescent Carolinian (NC) NY-Phila.-Wash., DC - Charlotte-Atlanta- Birmingham - New Orleans NY-Phila.-Wash., DC-Richmond-Raleigh- Charlotte 278,708 295,519 Piedmont (NC) Raleigh - Charlotte 159,688 NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Lynchburg 179,148 NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC Richmond NY-Was., DC Newport News 138,716 NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Norfolk 119,787 Source: https://www.narprail.org/site/assets/files/1038/trains_2015.pdf 11
Amtrak Network and Busiest Stations State Network Routes # of Stations Boardings and Alightings in 2015 Stations w/ over 70,000 Boardings and Alightings in 2015 Wash., D.C. 6 1 4,971,128 Union Station Virginia 6 20 1,606,007 Florida 4 18 1,027,196 N. Carolina 6 16 944,706 Alexandria, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Lorton, Lynchburg, Newport News, Richmond-Staples Mill Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Sanford, and Tampa Cary, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, Raleigh S. Carolina 4 11 217,984 Charleston Georgia 4 5 164,153 Atlanta Tennessee 1 2 75,944 Memphis Source: https://www.amtrak.com/state-fact-sheets 12
Existing Regional/Metropolitan/Commuter/LRT Networks Florida: Tri-Rail service between Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach SunRail serves the greater Orlando area Georgia: MARTA provides bus and rapid rail service to most urbanized parts of the Atlanta metropolitan region North Carolina: Charlotte Area Transit (CATS) and Lynx Rail System serve the Charlotte metropolitan area Wash., D.C./Virginia: Virginia Railway Express (VRE) serves Northern Virginia and the District of Columbia Norfolk Tide WMATA 13
Proposed Brightline Proposed Brightline (All Aboard Florida) project connecting Miami to Orlando with stops in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach Service between West Palm Beach and Miami is scheduled to begin in 2017 Future service to Orlando Development includes updates to the existing Florida East Coast Corridor railway 14
Interstate Corridors Corridor Approx. Corridor Length (miles) Corridor Population (2015) Corridor Population (2040 Forecast) Interstate 75: Florida Peninsula to Knoxville, TN Interstate 40: Memphis, TN to Kings Grant, NC Interstate 81: Knoxville, TN to Washington D.C. Interstate 24: Atlanta, GA to Nashville, TN Interstate 85: La Grange, GA to Durham, NC Interstate 4: Daytona, FL to Orlando, Tampa, FL 828 18,180,155 24,917,560 766 11,109,504 15,549,073 487 7,681,647 9,665,453 250 2,684,891 3,801,180 438 13,684,386 19,319,014 132 6,293,217 8,809,956 Interstate 95: Wash., D.C. to Richmond, VA Miami, FL to Savannah, GA 109 462 7,097,666 9,678,355 9,481,772 13,139,107 Sources: AADT from States DOTs; Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016 15
Active Freight Lines, Major Freight Corridors Two Class I carriers provide N-S and E-W links between seaports and inland customers Both Class 1 carriers use local short line and regional carriers (e.g. FEC, NCRR) to service certain local customers Major corridors: CSX Shenandoah and Piedmont lines (Crescent Corridor) along I-81 and I-85, connects Birmingham and Manassas Norfolk Southern Heartland Corridor along US 460 - Port of Virginia - Roanoke CSX N-S (National Gateway) along I-95 CSX A-Line and S-Line from Florida to NE Source: FRA Freight Policy (2014) 16
Airports 60,000,000 Enplanements (FAA 2015) 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 17
Major Seaports Major Seaports (2014 Rank by Total Tons) Mobile, AL (9) Norfolk Harbor, VA (14) Tampa, FL (21) Savannah, GA (22) Newport News, VA (27) Port Everglades, FL (30) Charleston, SC (33) Jacksonville, FL (38) Source:http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publicatio ns/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_57.html: 18
Geographic Features Represent Potential Constraints: Mountains - Appalachians Major water bodies National/state parks Military bases American Indian reservations 19
State Plans and Policies
Washington D.C. Draft District Rail Plan (2016) Draft District Rail Plan submitted to FRA Goals: add capacity, grow economic opportunity, and enhance quality of life Passenger rail projects: improvements to Union Station, upgrades/increased capacity on the Long Bridge/L Enfant Station Corridor, new midday commuter rail storage capacity Projects will provide needed capacity, connectivity, and operational flexibility for growing demand between District and points north and south 21
Virginia s Statewide Rail Plan (2013) Part of overall transportation planning framework Supports the VTrans goals for mobility, connectivity, and accessibility Offers options to corridors with highest density and growth potential 22
North Carolina s Comprehensive State Rail Plan (2015) Envisions connecting metro areas and communities to E. Coast destinations + enhancing movement of goods Priority corridors those with continued investments and highest commuter rail potential Supports Governor s 25-Year Vision (2014) - includes freight and passenger rail-related goals 23
South Carolina s Statewide Rail Plan (2014) Improved intercity service linking Charlotte, NC to Atlanta, GA, and Charlotte- Columbia connectivity 2030 Rail network consists of current Amtrak routes 2050 system no change except operations of 79-110 mph passenger trains (separate track) along current Amtrak Upstate route 24
Georgia State Rail Plan (2015) Envisions a safe and energy efficient state rail system Expands access and enhances mobility in environmentally sustainable manner Emphasizes new intercity and commuter rail services to enhance mobility 25
Florida: FDOT Multimodal Unfunded Needs Plan (2040) Objectives: interregional connectivity, intermodal connectivity, and economic development Recognizes passenger rail to address capacity needs Projects: Florida East Coast Railway Corridor improvements, Tri-Rail Station improvements, and passenger and freight rail upgrades. Florida is currently updating it s Rail System Plan 26
Tennessee s 25-Year Long- Range Transportation Policy Plan (2015) Provides foundation for prioritizing transportation investments Formed using framework of Policy Papers relevant to TDOT s vision and Guiding Principles Guiding principle: Provide for the Efficient Movement of People and Freight: Optimize the movement of people and goods by providing greater access to transportation services for all people and by building better connections among different modes of transportation. TDOT is updating statewide rail plan 27
Transition to Breakout Session Agenda Stakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info Relevant Data State Plans Opportunities and Constraints Refine List Top 3 Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene into One Group and Report Out 28
Transition to Breakout Session Map Overview GO! 29
Breakout Session Stakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info Feedback on Data: CBSAs - Population and Growth (2015-2040) Major Travel Patterns and Demand (multiple modes) Key Geographic Features Feedback on State Plans and Policies Work Sessions Opportunities and Constraints Initial Connections 30
Breakout Session Work Sessions Opportunities and Constraints Refine List Top 3 Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene and Report Out 31
Opportunities and Constraints Funding (capital and operations) Built and natural environment Competing modes Demographics Public attitudes Policy priorities Costs of inaction Others? 32