Report to Council Decision required Date: 24 January 2018 Author: Authoriser: Subject: Vincent Kuo, Senior Policy Advisor Mike Garrett, Chief Financial Officer Inclusion of an Interim Hamilton to Auckland Passenger Rail Service in the 2018-2028 Long Term Plan Purpose 1. To provide Council with an update on the preliminary funding analysis undertaken in respect to the proposed interim solution for the Hamilton to Auckland passenger rail service; and to seek Council s decision on whether to include the interim passenger rail service in the draft 2018-2028 Waikato Regional Council Long Term Plan for public consultation, as requested by Hamilton City Council. Executive Summary 2. The Waikato Regional Transport Committee has established a multi-party Hamilton and Auckland Transport Connections Working Group to develop a Strategic Business Case (SBC) on the connections between the two cities. The SBC is expected to be completed in April/May 2018. 3. The new Coalition Government has indicated that establishing an inter-regional passenger rail service is a priority and has pledged a financial contribution. Details and confirmation of the Government policy on a Hamilton to Auckland rail service have been sought and a response is yet to be received from the Minister of Transport. 4. Hamilton City Council has requested that Waikato Regional Council, as the public transport authority for the region, make provision within its 2018-28 Long Term Plan to enable an interim passenger rail service to be implemented should Central Government confirm its policy and funding commitment to the service (refer to Hamilton City Council letter in Attachment 1). Representatives from Hamilton City Council, including His Worship Mayor King, will join the Council meeting to discuss their request. 5. This report sets out the background to the interim passenger rail proposal with financial analysis, including impacts on Hamilton ratepayers and seeks Council s decision on whether to include the project in the 2018-28 Long Term Plan, including rating provision, for public consultation.
Staff Recommendation: 1. That the report Inclusion of an interim Hamilton to Auckland Passenger Rail Service on the 2018-2028 Long Term Plan (Doc #11675626, dated 24 January 2018) be received. 2. That Council make a decision on whether to include an interim Hamilton to Auckland Passenger Rail Service in the draft 2018-2028 Long Term Plan for public consultation. 3. That Council notes that should Council decide to include the interim rail service in the Long Term Plan that this option will only proceed subject to receiving significant Central Government funding and successfully concluding negotiations with Auckland Transport on integrated ticketing, and with KiwiRail on rail network access and a suitable ownership arrangement for rolling stock to the satisfaction of Council. Background 6. The Waikato and Auckland regions are experiencing high population growth and this is expected to continue more rapidly than predicted due to faster than expected housing demand in both regions. The majority of this growth has occurred in the past five years in Auckland, Hamilton and key growth centres along State Highway 1/Waikato Expressway such as Pokeno and Tuakau. 7. This strong growth is expected to continue due to pending approved special housing areas, district plan changes and a number of private plan changes that are being proposed by developers. This increasing growth is likely to place significant pressure on transport corridors between Hamilton and Auckland, and in particular the Waikato Expressway which is a nationally significant transport corridor that provides strategic transport connections for the Upper North Island. 8. In recognition of this growth the Waikato Regional Transport Committee (RTC) at its meeting on 4 September 2017, agreed to undertake a Strategic Business Case (SBC) to investigate transport connections between Hamilton and Auckland. The purpose of the SBC is for the key transport partners to identify and agree on the key problems or opportunities with respect to transport connections between Hamilton and Auckland, and to identify a preferred approach or response (with clear evidence) for addressing the problems. 9. An Auckland and Hamilton Transport Connections Working Party (the Working Party) has been established by the RTC to develop a SBC by April/May this year. The Working Party includes representatives from Waikato Regional Council, Hamilton City Council, Waikato District Council, Auckland Council, Auckland Transport, KiwiRail and the NZ Transport Agency. Representatives from Treasury and the Ministry of Transport are also in attendance at the Working Party meetings. 10. Whilst the Working Party is of the view that a robust business case should be developed prior to implementing any solution, it was also agreed that an interim passenger rail option should be explored in parallel to SBC process, in response to the early signal from Central Government on Auckland to Hamilton passenger rail service.
11. The service details relating to the proposed interim rail option are outlined in the table below: Hamilton to Auckland Passenger Rail Connections - Proposed interim service option Service description Service levels Rolling Stock Total seating capacity Estimated Journey time Stops On-board features Fares To provide a diesel shuttle service between Hamilton (Frankton Station) and Papakura rail station, where passengers would be able to transfer onto the Auckland Metro rail network. Two daily return commuter services on weekdays, leaving Hamilton at 6.00am and 6.40am and returning at 5.10pm and 6.00pm. A single return inter-peak service on weekend days and public holidays. 3 refurbished Suburban Driving (SD) / 6 refurbished Suburban Auckland (SA) units and 2 locomotives Maximum 155 boardings per single trip (loading factor based on a 3-car set SD/SA train unit per trip) Hamilton to Papakura (interim rail shuttle service)- 1 hour 30 mins Papakura to Britomart (Auckland rail services) 50 mins Total journey time from Hamilton to Britomart 2 hours 20 mins (incl. wait/transfer time at Papakura) Huntly at the initial phase, and other stops including the Base, Te Kauwhata, Pokeno and Tuakua will be added subject to future station upgrade and improvement. Air-conditioning and heating, wi-fi and toilet $16.10 one way (a Hamilton-Papakura fare of $10 1, plus a Papakura-Britomart fare of $6.10 2 ) 12. Of importance for Council to note is that Central Government has indicated that the Hamilton-Auckland passenger rail service is a project which they will support. However the nature and scope of Central Government s investment for the Hamilton-Auckland passenger rail proposal has not yet been confirmed, and it is expected that this information will be released as part of the new 2018-21 Government Policy Statement on Land Transport which is due to come out in February/March 2018. 13. A letter from His Worships Mayor Andrew King, Mayor Allan Sanson and Chairman Alan Livingston was sent to the Minister of Transport, Hon Phil Twyford in November 2017 seeking confirmation of the Government policy for the inter-regional rail service. A reply has yet to be received from the Minister. 14. Hamilton City Council has also met with the Minister and the Ministry of Transport to advocate for the Auckland and Hamilton passenger rail project. 15. In anticipation of Central Government confirmed policy and funding commitment to the Hamilton to Auckland passenger rail service, Hamilton City Council has requested that Waikato Regional Council, as 1 Based on proposed Waikato Regional Council PT zonal fares 2 Based on standard Auckland Transport HOP fares
the statutory public transport authority for the region, include the service in the WRC 2018-28 Long Term Plan with appropriate rating provisions to fund the local share of the service (refer letter in Attachment 1). This proposal will then by consulted with the public as part of the LTP process. Representatives from Hamilton City Council will join Council at the LTP meeting on 31 January to present their letter. Key service assumptions for the interim passenger rail service Rolling Stock 16. Based on the feedback from KiwiRail and Auckland Transport, the interim option is operationally feasible and can be implemented within the next 12-18 months, subject to appropriate rolling stock being secured. 17. KiwiRail has indicated there is an opportunity to use the ex Auckland Metro rail rolling stock (SA/SD rail carriages) for the interim service, however the rolling stock will need to be refurbished to provide accessible toilets, functioning doors, driving cab and appropriate upholstery. 18. It should also be noted that there is strong overseas interest to purchase these rolling stock units in the near future. As a result, a letter has been sent at the request of the Working Party (excl AT) to the Minister of Transport, seeking that the Minister ensure that this rolling stock remains in public ownership until the SBC is completed and a decision is made by the Auckland and Waikato partners on the interim rail option. To date, no reply has been received from the Minister. 19. Other rolling stock including the RM-Silver Fern DMU carriages that were included in Greater Auckland s Rapid Rail Proposal and The Rail Opportunity Network (TRON) report and SE/SW carriages (owned by Greater Wellington Regional Council) have not been considered for the interim service proposal due to the suitability and availability of these carriages. Railway stations 20. Based on the preliminary investigation done by KiwiRail in 2011, there are only two railway stations (Huntly and Frankton) in Waikato that are ready to a minimum standard for a passenger rail service to dock and depart. 21. It is envisaged that future stops would be included for the interim service, subject to further improvement being made to existing train stations at Ngaruawahia, Te Kauwhata, Pokeno and Tuakau, and a new railway platform being built at the Base (proposed multi-modal public transport interchange and park and ride facility). It should be noted that any additional stops being included on the route will be likely to increase overall journey time by approximately 6 min per stop. Fare levels 22. For the purposes of assessing the potential passenger demand and fare revenue for the interim service, a standard fare of around $16.10 (Incl. GST) has been assumed for a one way trip between Hamilton and Auckland. This is broken down between a fare of around $10 between Hamilton and Papakura based on the proposed WRC zonal fare structure, and a further fare of around $6.10 for the remainder of the journey from Papakura to Auckland based on the current Auckland Transport HOP fares. 23. The standard fare ($16.10) for the interim service is equivalent to the Auckland Transport Metro and Wairarapa-Wellington rail service fares but lower than Palmerston North and Wellington Capital Connection (Capital Connection) fares. It is understood that that the Capital Connection (Palmerston North to Wellington passenger rail service) fares are set taking account of avoidable costs and as a result are priced similar to the costs of operating a medium size car 3. 3 Hamilton City Council suggested using the Capital Connection average one-way fare ($24.00) and a remit to Auckland of $5.00 instead of $6.10. Using these fare assumptions under a 75% FAR yields a total revenue of $1.61 million (instead of $849,130), net cost goes down to $6.39 million (instead of $7.15 million), WRC share drops to 1.59 million (from 1.78 million) and the total increase in rate for a median HCC property is equivalent to $27.91 (instead of $30.59).
Interim Passenger Rail Option Financial analysis 24. Waikato Regional Council staff have undertaken some high level analysis on the interim rail option based on the service characteristics outlined in this report. The total costs (operational and capital expenditures) for the interim solution, and potential rating impacts based on various funding scenarios are set out in the following tables. A more detailed breakdown of the potential rating impacts based on different capital value ranges for Hamilton City properties is included in Attachment 2. Table One - Estimated Revenue, operational expenditure, capital expenditure and rating impacts Proposed interim solution estimated operational expenditure (OPEX) Revenue Average boarding 4 per weekday day service 85 Total weekday services per year 1,000 Average boarding 5 per weekend service 62 Total weekend services per year 200 Total annual passenger boarding (weekdays and 97,400 weekends) Average fare one way (GST excl.) 6 $8.70 Total annual fare revenue (Hamilton to Papakura) $849,130 Operational Expenditure Total annual operating cost $8,008,555 Total net costs (funding gap) $7,159,424 Proposed interim solution estimated capital expenditure (CAPEX) Carriage purchase (total of 9 SA/SD units with 3 as backup units) Rolling Stock and Contingency $630,000 Carriage modification $2,163,750 Loco purchase $4,600,000 Security $240,000 Wi-Fi installation $300,000 Electronic ticketing system $300,000 Total cost $8,233,750 Annual funding requirement (if paid over a 6-year period 7 $1,555,380 Potential annual rating impact (Hamilton Targeted Public Transport Rate) based on different NZTA Financial Assistant Rates (FAR), accounting for both OPEX and CAPEX (over a 6-year loan period) 4 Based on a loading factor of 55% of the service capacity (Maximum 155 seating capacity per single trip) 5 Based on a loading factor of 40% of the service capacity (Maximum 155 seating capacity per single trip) 6 A standard fare between Hamilton and Papakura is $10.00 on way including GSTA, and $8.696 excluding GST (=$10.00/1.15- IRD formula). 7 Based on a six year loan and applicable interest rate of 3.7% per annum.
Total rateable properties in Hamilton 58,500 (end of 2018 Hamilton City Council forecast) Without NZTA subsidy - $122.37 ($100.53-OPEX, $21.84-CAPEX) With NZTA subsidy at a standard 51% FAR - $59.95 Rate increase per Hamilton property based on ($49.25-OPEX, $10.70-CAPEX) median Capital Values ($400,000-$450,000) 8 With NZTA subsidy at an enhanced 75% FAR - $30.59 ($25.13-OPEX, $5.46-CAPEX). With NZTA subsidy at an enhanced 90% FAR - $12.23($10.05-OPEX, $2.18-CAPEX). Table Two Summary for funding mix using the standard funding sources and different FAR Rates (combining both OPEX and CAPEX). Financial Parameters Revenue $ 849,130 Total OPEX + annual repayment of CAPEX (6-year loan) $ 9,563,935 Net Cost/Subsidy (for both CAPEX+OPEX) $ 8,714,805 Farebox Recovey Ratio 8.88% Potential FAR given by Central Government 0% 51% 75% 90% NZTA-CG Share (CAPEX+OPEX) $ - $ 4,444,551 $ 6,536,104 $ 7,843,325 WRC Share (CAPEX+OPEX) $ 8,714,805 $ 4,270,254 $ 2,178,701 $ 871,481 Targeted Rate Increase (%) 127.50% 62.46% 31.87% 12.74% Chart One Rate impact through median, average and overall metrics for Hamilton City Councils rateable properties (OPEX+CAPEX). 9 25. It should be noted that the financial analysis is based on the information provided by KiwiRail and Auckland Transport, and has been peer reviewed in conjunction with Hamilton City Council staff. 26. The costs for the capital expenditure is based on the assumption that the rolling stock will be purchased and owned by WRC, and it does not include any costs associated with capital improvement (e.g. station upgrade) which will be delivered by Hamilton City Council and Waikato District Council. 27. Ownership of the rolling stock presents a risk to WRC of potentially owning major capital items that could become redundant in the future. It is expected that further conversation with KiwiRail will be critical to determine the best ownership model/arrangement for the rolling stock. In the event where rolling stock 8 We have used November 2017 dataset for Hamilton City Council rateable properties, with capital value figures calculated on 2015 revaluation. 9 The current targeted rate for Public Transport for a median property is equivalent to $95.98 according to the latest CV dataset from November 2017.
is owned by KiwiRail and leased out to WRC, this is likely to remove the capital funding requirement, but increase the overall operating costs. 28. Furthermore, there are other service items that have not been fully scoped out which would require further investigation to understand the cost implications. The major service items that will need to be included in the final rail proposal include: The total operating cost does not include the management of electronic ticketing system (only the purchasing of the hardware). Further discussion will need to be had with Auckland Transport to determine the most appropriate arrangement for the integrated ticketing system (WRC Busit or AT HOP) and the likely contracting cost for the ticketing service; A rail depot would need to be established in Hamilton to enable the rolling stock to be stored/parked overnights; The cost of installing WI-FI will be covered under CAPEX, however, the ongoing costs of providing on-board Wi-Fi services will be incurred on a yearly basis through contracting an internet provider. 29. It should also be noted that the recently completed Access Hamilton Strategy seeks a substantial increase in public transport mode share in Hamilton City and that WRC and HCC are working together to prepare a Mass Transit Plan to determine how public transport infrastructure and services in Hamilton can be enhanced to achieve the increase mode share targets. 30. To achieve the desired mode share targets, this would require a significant increase of PT service levels in Hamilton over the next 10 years. Therefore any potential increase to the Hamilton targeted PT rate will need to be considered in the context of anticipated future increased PT investment in Hamilton urban bus services. Funding partners feedback on the interim rail option 31. A letter was sent out to the potential funding partners who have an interest in a Hamilton-Auckland passenger rail service (Hamilton City Council, Waikato District Council, Auckland Council and NZ Transport Agency), to seek their feedback on the interim rail option, and in particular their willingness to financially support such service. 32. Feedback from these organisations has been received and is included in Attachment 1, and their feedback is summarised in the table below: Funding partner feedback on the proposed interim rail option Funding partner General comments Potential funding commitment Hamilton City Council HCC strongly supports the interim solution. A number of capital projects (e.g. a multi-modal PT hub/park and ride in Rotokauri adjacent to the Base) have been included in HCC s draft 2018-28 Long Term Plan to support a Hamilton- Auckland passenger rail service. HCC would advocate to central government for an enhanced FAR (75%-100%) to fund the capital Support WRC to include the interim rail option in its draft Long Term Plan for public consultation Support WRC to provide local share funding for the interim rail service via its targeted PT rate for Hamilton city. costs (rolling stock and rail station/infrastructure upgrade) Would advocate the central government to fully fund the operational costs for a 2-year trial period
Waikato District Council Auckland Council NZ Transport Agency WDC supports the development of the robust Business case so that a long term structured and affordable solution is agreed rather than proceeding with a physical single mode transport solution. AC supports the commuter rail option in principle, however not the interim option in its current form. Note that the interim solution may not offer the desired service standards or customer experience and could undermine the wider rail propositions that are being considered through the SBC NZTA does not support any rail proposal prior to the completion of SBC. WDC does not support in principal the proposed interim rail solution (unless the shortfall of funding is met by the Crown). WDC is not willing to consider associated financial support for moving the solution forward. AC does not support funding for the interim option, and the contribution will be limited to network enablement for any future rail service. NZTA does not support funding for the interim solution without a business case. Proposed options for next steps 33. Based on financial analysis and feedback received from the funding partners, staff have identified two options as a possible way forward, along with brief analysis presented in the table below. The first option is based on Council supporting the proposal in the Long Term Plan. The second option is based on Council not including the proposal in the Long Term Plan. Option 1: Support the interim rail proposal to be included in the draft 2018-28 WRC Long Term Plan (LTP) for public consultation, subject to receiving significant Central Government funding and successfully concluding negotiations with Auckland Transport on rail network access and integrated ticketing, and with KiwiRail in respect to the ownership of the rolling stock. Indicative gross costs Benefits Risks Capital Expenditure = $8.23 million Operational Expenditure = 8.00 million [Note: the costing is only indicative and further work will need to be undertaken in conjunction with KiwiRail and AT to confirm the detailed service proposal and costing for the interim option] Align with the current government's objective to improve inter-regional public transport connections Responding to community and some stakeholder expectations Provide greater certainly to invest and secure the rolling stock early Early opportunity to access central government funding for passenger rail service (if it is made available through the National Land Transport Programme) Proposal is consulted through the LTP process Significant rating impact for WRC (even with subsidy from central government) Interim option would offer a substandard service that does not necessarily address customer needs - ie direct and express service to Auckland CBD with no transfer. By implementing the interim option prior to a business case being prepared, this could potentially jeopardise the funding opportunity from NZTA and other key stakeholders..
Option 2: Not to include the interim rail proposal in the 2018-28 WRC Long Term Plan (LTP), but will consider including any future passenger rail proposal in future Annual Plans if it is supported by the SBC and there is a firm funding commitment from the government. To be determined, depending on the outcomes of the SBC The completion of the SBC will allow for an evidencebased and informed policy decision to be made regarding the most optimal PT option for Auckland-Hamilton connections Allow a more integrated approach to plan for medium and longer term passenger rail options and infrastructure. Due process is followed with greater level of buyin (and potentially funding support) from key stakeholders and central government agencies (NZTA and Treasury) Not meeting community and some stakeholder expectations There is a risk that the ex Auckland Transport SA and SD carriages could be sold to overseas and the cost for purchasing new diesel-powered units will be significantly higher. Conclusion 34. Council decision is sought on the preferred option and whether to consult the interim rail option as part of the draft 2018-28 Waikato Regional Council Long Term Plan. 35. Council notes that should Council decide to include the interim rail service in the Long Term Plan that this option will only proceed subject to receiving satisfactory Central Government funding and successfully concluding negotiations with Auckland Transport on rail network access and integrated ticketing. Attachments Attachment 1: Feedback from funding partners on interim rail option Attachment 2: Analysis of potential rating impacts based on different capital value ranges for Hamilton City properties and potential FAR provided by NZTA/Central Government
Attachment 1: Feedback from funding partners on interim rail option
Attachment 2: Analysis of potential rating impacts to fund Operational Expenditure (excl. CAPEX) based on different capital value ranges for Hamilton City properties 2.1 Chart One Distribution of rateable properties across Capital Value ranges in Hamilton City Council 2.2 Chart Two Impact on a low, median and high value property across Hamilton City Council with a 51% FAR 2.3 Chart Three Impact on a low, median and high value property across Hamilton City Council with a 75% FAR