Air travel projections for the Transport Outlook An overview Haobo Wang, Ministry of Transport
Four projection models for air transport Domestic O&D based regional air passenger flows (Number of domestic air passengers from one region to each of other regions based on their true origins and destinations) Aircraft-km travelled and fuel use/ghg emissions from domestic air travel International O&D based regional air passenger flows (Number of air passengers departing from each region based on their true origins and destinations) Leg based (airport) air passenger departures (Number of both domestic and international air passenger departures from each region based on non-stop flights taken) The domestic O&D based regional air passenger flow model are developed by Tim Hazledine (UOA); the other three models are developed by MoT 2
O&D based departures are different from those leg based Origin and destination based air passengers Based on their true origins and destinations regardless of the actual routes they have taken e.g. (1) Whangarei Auckland Wellington (2) Whangarei Wellington A passenger is only counted once in his/her trip Domestic legs in international trips will not be included in domestic departures Leg based (airport) passenger departures A leg is defined as a non-stop flight The data reported by airports, CAA and Statistics NZ are all leg based e.g. (1) Whangarei Auckland Wellington only one O&D based air passenger, but two leg based departures 3
Domestic regional air passenger flow model (1) Econometric (gravity type) model Based on passengers true origins and destinations Explanatory variables used: GDP Population Number of overseas visitors Distance Real airfares Variables for the quality of air services 4
Domestic regional air passenger flow model (2) 2015 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 Auckland Bay of Plenty 58,832 65,176 75,050 85,147 94,970 105,284 117,096 Auckland Canterbury 873,801 985,001 1,139,824 1,300,378 1,458,960 1,627,862 1,823,080 Auckland Gisborne 35,489 39,066 44,223 49,320 54,033 58,743 64,098 Auckland Hawkes Bay 123,052 136,371 154,690 172,920 189,752 206,770 225,861 Auckland Manawatu 128,715 141,300 159,837 178,271 195,364 212,791 232,423 Auckland Marlborough 42,120 46,464 52,768 59,112 64,946 70,798 77,569 Auckland Nelson-Tasman 116,492 130,465 149,440 168,399 186,333 204,827 225,384 Auckland Northland 52,251 58,274 66,997 75,770 84,140 92,746 102,562 Auckland Otago 425,302 476,507 550,818 626,768 701,247 780,513 872,385 Auckland Southland 11,550 12,784 14,420 16,048 17,546 19,064 20,804 Auckland Taranaki 78,191 87,436 100,059 112,892 125,206 138,100 152,987 Auckland Waikato 10,240 11,452 13,217 15,027 16,790 18,648 20,792 Auckland Wellington 1,020,096 1,133,646 1,295,251 1,459,500 1,617,178 1,781,541 1,969,265 Auckland West Coast 2,589 2,902 3,275 3,645 3,985 4,331 4,718 Note: These are origin and destination based, will not match with airport data. 5
Domestic regional air passenger flow model (3) Scenario A: staying close to the action Scenario B: metroconnected Scenario C: the golden triangle Scenario D: @home in town and country 6
International regional air passenger flow model (1) MoT s forecasts for international departures by NZ residents (Number of international departures by NZ residents at the national level) MBIE s forecasts for overseas visitor arrivals (Number of overseas visitor arrivals at the national level up to 2022) Additional assumptions International air passenger departures from regions (Number of international air passengers from each region based on their true origins and destinations) We estimate the growth of international departures by NZ residents and that by overseas visitors separately because we believe the influencing factors are different 7
International regional air passenger flow model (2) The vast majority of people start their international air travel from Auckland, Canterbury, Wellington and Otago (Queenstown) Note: These are origin and destination based, will not match with Stats NZ s total. 8
Leg based air passenger departure model (1) Using the results of the two O&D based models to estimate the growth rates for different types of leg (non-stop flights) Adjust the modelling results of domestic air passenger departures against the data from NZ airports The modelled national totals of domestic departures are consistent well with CAA s data (the difference is less than 1%) Adjust the modelling results of international air passenger departures against Stats NZ s data Estimate the growth in international transit passengers (for Auckland Airport) separately 9
Leg based air passenger departure model (2) - Domestic Index 2005 = 1 10
Leg based air passenger departure model (3) - International Index 2005 = 1 11
Domestic aircraft-km and fuel use/ghg model (1) The landing-and-takeoff cycle and the cruise cycle are modelled separately 12
Domestic aircraft-km and fuel use/ghg model (2) Key assumptions: (1) the size of aircraft used would continue to grow over time; (2) fuel efficiency would be improved over time due to the use of new generations of aircraft 13
Domestic aircraft-km and fuel use/ghg model (3) Assumptions: (1) 5% uptake of biofuel (biodiesel for air travel) by 2043 in Scenarios A&B; (2) 15% uptake of biofuel (biodiesel for air travel) by 2043 in Scenarios C&D 14
Key conclusions Air travel demand in New Zealand would have a good growth across regions, although the growth rates vary with regions and scenarios Air travel growth would be stronger in Queenstown and other hub airports (Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington) Domestic air passenger departures would be doubled by 2043 in the Base case and Scenarios A&B, and more than tripled in the Scenarios C&D The strongest growth in air travel would be seen in Scenario D (@home in town and country) due to a stronger growth in income (GDP per capita), population, and overseas visitors; as well as more dispersed population Despite a strong growth in the number of air passengers, Jet fuel use and GHG emissions from domestic air travel would increase by less than 40% in the Base case. However, they could be doubled in Scenario D. 15
Caution: All the numbers shown in this presentation are for demonstration purpose only; do NOT take them as final results or official projections