Stats Newsletter August 07 Introduction This newsletter focuses on international trends and their application to Namibia. It high lights the transition of voice traffic carried via regular voice channels compared to this via over the top service (OTT) such as WhatsApp and Skype. In 07 many Namibian smartphone users will not make any traditional voice calls in a given week and instead call and text via OTTs. OTT traffic Carrier traffic 77 30 353 387 408 436 478 5 55 306 56 44 557 557550 5 7 4 33 55 86 5 60 005 006 007 008 009 00 0 0 0 04 05 06 Figure : International traffic in billion minutes (Source Telegeography) Telegeography reported that, in terms of international traffic, OTTs overtook globally regular carrier traffic in 06 for the first time (Figure ). CRAN does not monitor OTT traffic but can confirm the declining international voice traffic and revenues that are the logical consequence of increased OTT use. http://www.dri.co.jp/auto/report/telegeo/files/pdf/telegeography-report-executive-summary.pdf
CRAN STATS NEWSLETTER AUGUST 07 Mobile International Traffic International incoming traffic continues to decline. The second half of a year usually sees more incoming international calls compared to the first half due to summer holidays in Europe (July to August) and Christmas holidays. This spike did not materialise in the second half of 06, which may be attributable to Over The Top (OTT) services such as Facebook, Skype and WhatsApp). Fixed-line incoming Mobile incoming 9. 9.8 9.7 7.7 7.7 5.7 5. 3.6 3.6. 6.6 8. 9. 4.6 7.0. 0.9 4.3 7.5 0.0 0H 0H 0H 04H 04H 05H 05H 06H 06H 07H Figure : Incoming international minutes in million In total, 3 million minutes of international calls were received in Namibia in the first half of 07. Two-thirds of this were received on mobile phones and one-third on fixed lines. Fixed-line_Outgoing Mobile Outgoing.3.0 5.0 6.9 8.9 5.8..6. 0.4 9. 0.3 4.9 7.9 7.5 5.7 5.8 4.8.9 4.0 0H 0H 0H 04H 04H 05H 05H 06H 06H 07H Figure 3: Outgoing international minutes in millions For outgoing international calls, fixed-lines are still leading mobile with 4 million minutes compared to 0 million minutes being dialed from mobiles. Mobile outgoing minutes to international destinations peaked in the second half of 04 and declined since then.
International voice revenues Namibia operators in total collected million N$ 5 in international revenues in 06, a decline from million N$ 78 in 04 and million N$ 70 in 05. While fixed international voice revenues declined consistently, mobile initially increased in 04. International voice revenues in million N$ 0 04 05 06 Fixed-lines 86.0 79.6 78.37 7.58 VoIP 0 0.5 0.6 0.66 Mobile 8.54 98.6 9.86 79.99 Total 67.65 78.37 70.39 5.3 Mobile Prepaid Prices Namibia ranks 6 th among African countries in terms of cheapest voice and SMS products in a country. Figure 4 compares the cost in USD of the cheapest prepaid mobile product available in Namibia, and in all of Africa, for the OECD 30 calls/00 SMSs basket between Q40 and Q 07. Cheapest in Africa USD Cheapest in Namibia USD Namibia's Rank 5 4 3 4.4 4.8 4..4 0 0 9 9 9 8 8 4 4 4 4 9.0 8.6 8.5 8. 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.9 8 7.9 4 0 4 4 5 6 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4. 4.6 3. 3.0.7.7...0.9.4.9.9.7.5.5.5.5.4.4.4.5.5.5.5.4.. Q 06 Q3 05 Q 05 Q 05 Q4 04 Q3 04 Q 04 Q 04 Q4 0 Q3 0 Q 0 Q 0 Q4 0 Q3 0 Q 0 Q 0 Q4 0 Q3 0 Q 0 Q 0 Figure 4: Ranking and cost of cheapest prepaid mobile product available in Namibia and Africa for OECD 30 calls/00 SMSs basket (Source: Research ICT Africa) Namibia s cheapest product rank improved from 3 rd in Q 0 to 6 th in. While the ranking has not much improved, prices nevertheless have steadily been coming down in USD until the first quarter of 06. The price benchmarking uses quarterly average exchange rates OECD (00), Revision of the Methodology for Constructing Telecommunication Price Baskets, OECD Working Party on Communication Infrastructures and Services Policy. 3
and some fluctuation in end-user cost is caused but by exchange rate fluctuations and not by price. Figure 5 displays the cheapest prices of TN Mobile and MTC for the 30 calls and 00 SMSs OECD basket. in Namibian Dollar. MTC s prices have increased in, but MTC remains the cheapest operator for voice and SMS. MTC TN Mobile 50 3 95 68 40 Q 0 Q 0 Q3 0 Q4 0 Q 0 Q 0 Q3 0 Q4 0 Q 0 Q 0 Q3 0 Q4 0 Q 04 Q 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q 05 Q 05 Q3 05 Q 06 Figure 5: Cost of cheapest prepaid mobile product for OECD 30 calls and 00 SMSs basket by operators in N$ (Source: Research ICT Africa) In terms of prepaid mobile data, Namibia was among the cheapest 0 countries in Africa in 05 but dropped to rank by Q of 07. This not because the prices increased but because other countries having more effective competition leading to lower prices and faster build out of 4G networks. Cheapest in Africa USD Cheapest in Namibia USD Namibia's Rank 0 6 7 7 0 6.3 5.8 5. 5.5 5.8 5.9 6. 6.4 3.5 3. 3..3.7 0.9.4.3 Q 06 Q3 05 Figure 6: Ranking and cost of cheapest product for GB mobile prepaid data with -month validity available in Namibia and Africa (Source: Research ICT Africa) 4
OECD 30 calls 00 SMS basket USD Ranking Egypt.7 Tunisia.66 Ghana.4 3 Nigeria.5 4 Kenya.30 5 Tanzania.34 6 Ethiopia 3.03 7 Rwanda 3.04 8 Sudan 3.8 9 Mauritius 3.3 0 Sierra Leone 3.38 Guinea 3.76 South Africa 3.88 Gambia 4.9 4 Uganda 4.3 5 Namibia 4.64 6 Madagascar 4.86 7 Cape Verde 4.98 9 Liberia 5.00 0 Malawi 5.69 Mali 6. Botswana 6.5 3 Burundi 6.40 4 Libya 6.60 5 Cameroon 6.73 6 Burkina Faso 7.0 7 Zambia 7.64 8 Mozambique 7.9 9 Benin 8.08 30 GB mobile prepaid broadband per month USD Ranking Egypt.5 Tunisia.04 Guinea.0 3 Tanzania.7 4 Ghana.34 5 Rwanda.43 6 Mozambique.7 7 Uganda.8 8 Nigeria 3.5 9 Senegal 3.6 0 Sudan 4.3 Madagascar 4.86 Cape Verde 4.88 Kenya 4.90 4 Liberia 5.00 5 Cameroon 5.0 6 Morocco 5.0 7 Burundi 5.34 8 Mauritius 5.37 9 Gambia 6.06 0 Namibia 6.35 Malawi 6.67 Central African Republic 6.70 3 Gabon 6.70 4 Niger 6.86 5 Ethiopia 7.5 6 Algeria 7.36 7 South Africa 7.67 8 Togo 7.7 9 Conclusion Namibia is no longer a price leader in Africa, mostly due to a lack of domestic competition. In particular for mobile prepaid data, Namibia slipped in African ranking and 0 countries are cheaper than Namibia. International call revenues and traffic continue to decline. International voice traffic will eventually be replaced by IP based communication (OTTs). CONTACT DETAILS Fillemon Shilongo I Moth Center, Unit 3-5 I Peter Muller Street I Windhoek I T 06666 I F 06790 I economics@cran.na 5