SUSTAIN: A Framework for Sustainable Aviation Ted Elliff Research Area Manager, Society, Environment & Economy 1
SEMANTICS (1) The Oxford English Dictionary defines sustainable as follows: sustainable (adj): Capable of being borne or endured; supportable, bearable Capable of being upheld or defended; maintainable Capable of being maintained at a certain rate or level 2
SEMANTICS (2) The Indian Director of St. Joseph s College, Darjeeling, India, Milindo Chakrabarti, pointed out that sustainable development is an oxymoron like bright darkness or an honest liar. (development : growth with change ) Growth the raison d être of our modern society, should be questioned in itself, mainly because of the irreversible effects on the environment. For aviation, these include gaseous emissions and oil consumption. 3
The Regulators: Time to decide European Transport Policy for 2010 Promoting passengers rights Towards sustainable mobility fair infrastructure charging, taking account of external costs Managing globalisation improving safety and protecting the environment 4
Growth is essential for business Industry 5
The end of Cheap Oil? the trend in the size and number of discoveries has been declining since 1965 OPEC has the taps wide open, and is just meeting demand Royal Dutch Shell had to revise downward its estimate of proven reserves by 20% demand continues to grow - CHINA! the remaining conventional reserves will be more costly to extract non-conventional reserves are costly to extract This Industry doesn t work on $38-a-barrel-oil Gordan Bethune, Chairman and CEO, Continental Airlines, April 16, 2004 6
Reducing Fuelburn? 7
Project Definition and Objective The objective of the Phase2 study was the definition of an initial set of indicators for trend evaluation of the social, environmental, and economic impacts of the air transport sector on society in Europe, as a step towards assessing its sustainability. Results presented here are preliminary and are for discussion of the concept Feedback welcome! 8
Methodology Definition Two Dimensional framework to provide a pertinent segmentation of Air Transport issues and impacts across thematic domains Vertical organisation of air transport activities Upstream effects Manufacturers Manufacturers Civil Civil Airspace Airspace Users Users ANSPs ANSPs Airports Airports Military Military Airspace Airspace Users Users Downstream effects Passengers Passengers Horizontal organisation of air transport activities 9
Methodology and data sources Literature review and web search for collecting publicly available information, definitions, and existing indicators was performed Feasibility of trend monitoring and data (homogeneity of traffic sample, relevance of accessible data, etc.) was studied. Stakeholder definition: At the starting point of the supply chain are Manufacturers (including engine and airframe), ANSPs, and Airports. These are feeding the users, both civil and military, with products and services. Passengers are in direct relation with civil airspace users, and in direct and indirect relation with airports. And citizens as a receiver from all other stakeholders. 10
Indicator Selection The methodology relies on the construction of a generic framework covering the traditional 3 dimensions of sustainability: economic, environment and social for selected stakeholders. For each stakeholder and each sustainability dimension: Literature Review Stakeholder categories and relationship List of Possible Indicators Proposed Indicators Selection Criteria *Data Availability *Relevance of the indicator for selected stakeholder Data collection and trend calculations Trend Monitoring 11
Indicators Relevance Check List All candidate indicators are reviewed with the supporting checklist of criteria: 1. Does the selected indicator support sustainability target? 2. Does the indicator correspond to the selected stakeholder most significant environmental, social, or economic aspect? 3. Does this indicator indicate timely progress towards a SMART predetermined target(s), objective or policy? 4. Is the data easily obtainable and reliable for all European stakeholders? 5. Does the indicator have clearly defined methodology, data requirements and continuity for trend monitoring? 6. Is the indicator methodology validated and harmonized? 7. Are they incontrollable influencing factors on the selected indicator, (Those factors that can affect the performance; Is it possible to measure them?) 8. Is the indicator consistent or supporting European or international targets (Such as EC, ICAO, CAEP, ACI, etc ) and can be aggregated for all Europe? 12
Society ANSPs Manufacturers Civil Airspace Users Military Airspace Users Accidents Total flights Number of jobs Total Quota Count of a fleet Delays due to military activities Airports Passengers Citizens GLOBAL VIEW Number of Jobs Number of Destinations & Total flights People exposed above 55 Lden 13
Environment ANSPs Manufacturers Civil Airspace Users Military Airspace Users Flight Efficiency Average fuel flow for aircraft family Total Fuel burn Total Fuel Sold Airports Passengers Citizens GLOBAL VIEW Local Air Pollution (NOx) CO2 per Passenger kilometre Share of aviation CO2 In total CO2 Emissions 14
Economic ANSPs Manufacturers Civil Airspace Users Military Airspace Users Total cost Per km Controlled Operating Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Fuel cost in defence budget Airports Passengers Citizens GLOBAL VIEW Operating Profit Margin Air Transport price index Wage Bill (employment x salaries) 15
Trend example: Manufacturers - SOC Aircraft and Engine manufacturers Number of employees Sources: - AECMA Facts and Figures 1999 to 2003 450'000 400'000 number of jobs 350'000 300'000 250'000 200'000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 16
Trend example: Passengers - ENV CO 2 per passenger kilometre Eurostat air transport CO2 per passenger km Data Sources: - TRENDS workbook - TRENDS_EU15_data_Sep03.xls Data: - Air Transport Data: It includes all domestic, intra EU15 and international flights in EU15 countries -Data extracted from the database are Total CO 2 and total Passenger Km CO2(t)/ PKM 145 140 135 130 125 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 17
Trend example: ANSP - ECO Definition: En-route ANS + cost of ATFM delays 1.2 1 / KM 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ANS Cost ATFM Delay cost 18
Summary ANSPs (civil + military) Manufacturers (engine + aircraft) Civil Airspace Users (airlines + gen. aviation) Military Airspace Users Total cost Per km Controlled (including delay Flight Efficiency Operating Profit Margin Average fuel flow Operating Profit Margin, or Share of fuel cost in total cost Fuel burn? Fuel cost in defence budget Fuel burn Accidents per km flown Number of jobs Number of Jobs or QC of the fleet Volume of Airspace x time Airports Passengers Citizens GLOBAL VIEW Synthesis of stakeholders Operating Profit Margin Local Air Pollution (NOx per LTO) Trip cost (ticket + charges + Delay) CO2 per Passenger kilometre Wage Bill Share of aviation CO2 In total CO2 Emissions MACROSCOPIC VIEW Number of Jobs Number of Destinations x frequency People exposed above 65 Lden Contribution to GDP Total employment Non ren. resources consumption 19
Framework for Sustainability 20
Results Stakeholder Social Environmental Economic ANSPs Accidents per total number of flights Flight efficiency (extra distance flown) Total cost per kilometre controlled (capacity + delay) Number of jobs Average fuel flow for a selected aircraft family Operating profit margin Engine Aircraft Manufacturers Noise: Total QC of the EU fleet Total fuel burn Operating profit margin Civil airspace users Military airspace users Percentage of en route delays due to military activities Total fuel sold to military aircraft operations? Military fuel cost in defence budget? Number of jobs (SOPHOS Airport Energy Indicator can replace this) Operating profit margin Airport Number of destinations & total number of flights? CO 2 per passenger kilometer Ticket fares (Air Transport Price Index) Passengers People exposed above 55 Lden Share of aviation CO 2 in total CO 2 Wage bill Citizens? 21
EEC Strategy SEE Mission: Research in sustainable development of aviation Understanding Assessing Improving SEE Strategy: To develop a framework to understand, assess and improve the management of the sustainable development of aviation Communicate Iterate Improve Modelling & Assessing scenarios Sustainability Framework 2005 2006 2007 22