AIRPORT MASTER PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING #2 AGENDA

AIRPORT MASTER PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING #2 AGENDA MEETING DATE: Wednesday, June 1, 2011 TIME: 2:30 PM (1½ Hours) LOCATION: Duluth Airport Terminal Building, Skyline Room (2 nd Floor) This meeting will inform the Advisory Committee of Working Paper #2 (Aviation Demand Forecasts) and the preliminary discussions of the airfield facility requirements to be presented in the future Working Paper #3. The agenda for the meeting: A. Opening Remarks Brian Ryks / Brian Grefe - Current Airport Events B. Status of Airport Master Planning Tasks RS&H C. Working Paper Overview RS&H - Aviation Forecast Chapter (Working Paper #2): review of the major Airport activity trends and 20-year forecast projections. - Preliminary Airfield Facility Requirements (Future Working Paper #3): overview of the Airport s fleet mix, critical aircraft, runway usage, and initial discussion of runway design and length requirements. D. Open Committee Discussion - Committee - Public Workshop Attachments: None Thank you for your attendance

Duluth International Airport Airport Master Plan Project Master Plan Advisory Committee Meeting June 1, 2011

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Project Status Involvement Program: Investigative Solutions Implementation Airport Sponsor, FAA and Mn/DOT Coordination INVENTORY AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST Advisory Committee Meetings Public Information Workshops Website Postings AERIAL MAPPING AIRPORT FACILITY REQUIREMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW ALTERNATIVES DEVELOPMENT & EVALUATION FACILITIES IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS Press Releases Public Meetings Committee Meetings PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT STUDY Mtg. #2 We Are Here EXHIBIT A PROPERTY MAP Mtg. #1 AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN (ALP) DRAWINGS MASTER PLAN REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY March June August

Study Tasks Progress Completed Since Meeting #1: - Meeting #1 SWOT Analysis was summarized and provided to committee members for review and comment. - Working Paper #1 comments received and addressed. Revised to be provided to Airport Staff for posting on Airport website. - Preliminary i Airport Exhibit A Property Map ready to provide to Airport Staff for review and comment. - Preliminary Airport Layout Drawing-Existing ALP Sheet and aerial ready to provide to Airport Staff for review and comment. - Primary and Secondary Survey Control (PACS & SACS) points being reviewed by FAA-ADO ADO prior to FAA/NGS AGIS submittal.

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Enplanements Air Cargo Operations Based Aircraft Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Aviation Forecasts Purposes Master Plan Forecasting: Measured by Enplaned Passenger (Total Passengers = Enplaned + Deplaned) 20-Year Unconstrained Aviation Activity Projection Identify Triggers for Facility and Capacity Improvements FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Serve as Forecast Basis Air Carrier Air Commuter/Air Taxi General Aviation Military

Forecast Duluth Air Carrier Passenger Trends Passengers 180,000 1951 to 2010 160,000 Year Enplanements 140,000 1951 966 120,000 1960 39,281 100,000 1970 86,646 80,000 1980 116,037 60,000 1990 125,323 40,000 2000 148,163 20,000 2010 155,955 0 Enplaned Passengers 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Average Annual Growth Rate Period Percent Change 1951-1960 50.9% 1961-1970 9.2% 1971-19801980 33% 3.3% 1981-1990 0.9% 1991-2000 1.9% 2001-2010 0.6% 1951-2010 9.0% 1990 to 2010

Forecast Airline Operators Duluth Airline Overview: Aircraft 2010 2010 % Annual Annual Airline Destination (Seats) Enplaned Enplaned Departures Operations Delta Minneapolis, Detroit CRJ-200 (50) 105,684 68% 3,285 6,570 United Chicago (O'Hare) CRJ-200 (50) 21,840 14% 1,095 2,190 Allegiant Las Vegas, Orlando MD-80 (150) 25,942 17% 130 260 Charters Various Various (50-150) 2,489 2% Total 155,955 100% 4,510 9,020 Source: Each airline's schedule, May 2011; Duluth Airport Authority, 2011

Forecast Airline Passenger Summary 300,000 250,000 rs Enplaned Passenger 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Base Case FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical FAA TAF Scenario One Scenario Two 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2030 Enplaned Passengers Base Case - Actual 155,955 Base Case - FAA TAF 137,564 150,779 165,529 182,004 200,409 - Scenario One 155,955 171,400 188,300 206,900 227,300 - Scenario Two 155,955 175,500 197,500 222,400 250,400 - Average Annual Growth Rate Base Case - FAA TAF 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario One 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario Two 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Forecast Airline Passenger Projections Scenario One Enhanced Air Service: United frequency increase to four or more flights to Chicago Additional United/Continental hub destinations Delta utilizes larger 120 to 150 passenger aircraft Additional Delta destination served New Allegiant destination served

Forecast Airline Passenger Summary 300,000 250,000 rs Enplaned Passenger 200,000 150,000 100,000 Scenario One 50,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical FAA TAF Scenario One Scenario Two 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2030 Enplaned Passengers Base Case - Actual 155,955 Base Case - FAA TAF 137,564 150,779 165,529 182,004 200,409 - Scenario One 155,955 171,400 188,300 206,900 227,300 - Scenario Two 155,955 175,500 197,500 222,400 250,400 - Average Annual Growth Rate Base Case - FAA TAF 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario One 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario Two 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Forecast Airline Passenger Projections Scenario Two Greatly Enhanced Air Service Assumes same conditions as Scenario One plus Substantial United flight increases to second hub Allegiant adds daily frequency to existing and new destinations Attraction of new mainline carrier

Forecast Airline Passenger Summary 300,000 250,000 rs Enplaned Passenger 200,000 150,000 100,000 Scenario Two 50,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical FAA TAF Scenario One Scenario Two 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2030 Enplaned Passengers Base Case - Actual 155,955 Base Case - FAA TAF 137,564 150,779 165,529 182,004 200,409 - Scenario One 155,955 171,400 188,300 206,900 227,300 - Scenario Two 155,955 175,500 197,500 222,400 250,400 - Average Annual Growth Rate Base Case - FAA TAF 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario One 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Scenario Two 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Enplanements Air Cargo Operations Based Aircraft Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Forecast Air Cargo Historical Volume FedEx Transport Sweep Aircraft

Forecast Air Cargo Projections Cargo Base Case Status Quo Volume continues as consistent in recent years Cargo operators (FedEx and UPS) continue to use smaller turboprop aircraft Increased tendency for local businesses and users on just-in-time delivery Increased economic o c conditions, dto nationally ato a and locally

Forecast Air Cargo Projections By Scenario 2010 2030 Enplaned Deplaned Enplaned Deplaned Pounds of Air Cargo Base Case 1,400,000 500,000 2,253,000 805,000 Scenario One 1,700,000 3,500,000 2,734,000 5,625,000 Average Annual Growth Rate Base Case 2.4% 2.4% Scenario One 2.4% 2.4%

Forecast Air Cargo Projections Cargo Scenario One Return to Sweep Aircraft Assumes same conditions as Base Case plus Multiple daily flights using smaller turboprop aircraft in short term Added transport aircraft flights similar to past FedEx sweep plane

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Enplanements Air Cargo Operations Based Aircraft Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Forecast Aircraft Operations Commercial (Air Carrier and Air Taxi/Commuter) Scheduled Airlines (Delta, United and Allegiant) Unscheduled & Charter Air Carriers Air Cargo Operators General Aviation General Aviation Fixed Based Operator / Refueling Techstops Cirrus Industries Lake Superior College Flight Training i Military MN Air National Guard

Forecast Aircraft Operational Summary Ati Activity it MeasureM 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ANNUAL OPERATIONS Commercial 10,900 11,500 12,200 12,900 13,600 General Aviation 38,700 42,000 45,400 49,100 53,100 Military 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 Total 59,000 62,900 67,000 71,400 76,100

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Enplanements Air Cargo Operations Based Aircraft Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Forecast Based Aircraft Forecast Single Multi Rotor- Civilian Grand Year Engine Engine Jet Craft Total Military Total 2010 52 10 2 1 65 22 87 2015 54 11 3 2 70 22 92 2020 60 12 3 2 77 22 99 2025 62 13 5 3 83 22 105 2030 66 14 5 3 88 22 110 20-Year Change 14 4 3 2 23 0 23 Annual Change 1.2% 1.7% 4.7% 5.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% Source: FAA TAF, 2010; Duluth Airport Authority, Reynolds, Smith and Hills

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Airport Familiarity Airfield Layout Crosswind Runway 3-21 (5,718 x 150 ) Primary Runway 9-27 (10,162 x 150 )

Critical Aircraft Runway 9-27 Existing / Future Critical Aircraft PRIMARY RUNWAY 9-27 Existing / Future ARC Approach Category C A Approach Speed (knots) < 91 knots Category B 91 to < 121 knots Category C 121 to < 141 knots Rwy 9-27 ARC: Exsitng / Future Category D 141 to < 166 knots Category E > 166 knots Existing / Future ARC Design Group Wingspan (ft) Tail Height (ft) Group I < 49' < 20 Group II 49' to < 79' 20' to < 30' Group III 79' to < 118' 30' to < 45' Group IV 118' to < 171' 45' to < 60' Rwy 9-27 ARC: Exsitng / Future Group V 171' to < 214' 60' to < 66' Group VI 214' to < 262' 66' to < 80' Combined, the 'Approach Category' and 'Design Group' yields the Airport Reference Code (ARC) which determines the type of airplane the airport is designed to accommodate for Source: FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13. Runway 9 27: Civilian Critical Aircraft (Existing/Future) Critical Aircraft (Existing) 747 400 Aircraft (ARC D V) Critical Aircraft (Future) Antonov Cargo Aircraft (ARC D V to D VI)

Critical Aircraft Runway 3-21 Existing / Future Critical Aircraft CROSSWIND RUNWAY 3-21 Existing / Future ARC Approach Category C t A Approach Speed (knots) < 91 knots Category B 91 to < 121 knots Rwy 3-21 ARC: Exsitng / Future Category C 121 to < 141 knots Category D 141 to < 166 knots Category E > 166 knots Existing / Future ARC Design Group Wingspan (ft) Tail Height (ft) Group I < 49' < 20 Group II 49' to < 79' 20' to < 30' Rwy 3-21 ARC: Exsitng / Future Group III 79' to < 118' 30' to < 45' Rwy 3-21 ARC: Strategic Group IV 118' to < 171' 45' to < 60' Group V 171' to < 214' 60' to < 66' Group VI 214' to < 262' 66' to < 80' Combined, the 'Approach Category' and 'Design Group' yields the Airport Reference Code (ARC) which determines the type of airplane the airport is designed to accommodate for Source: FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13. Runway 3 21: Civilian Critical Aircraft (Existing/Future/Strategic) Critical Aircraft (Existing) Critical Aircraft (Future) Strategic Critical Aircraft CRJ 200 (ARC C II to ARC C III) Embraer 170/195 (ARC C III) 757 200 (ARC C IV Narrowbody)

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Initial Facility Requirements

Initial Facility Requirements Runway 9-27 Length Existing 10,162 Length Accommodates Rwy 9-27 Citi Critical laircraft Performance Needs Primary Runway 9-27 (10,162 long x 150 wide) Potentially Resolve FAA Hotspots to Restore 1,000 foot In-Line Taxiway Length

Initial Facility Requirements Runway 3-21 Length Identify Runway Extension Options 7,500 Length to Accommodate Future Rwy 3-21 Critical Aircraft Performance Needs Crosswind Runway 3-21 (5,718 x 150 ) Resolve Parallel Taxiway Layout and Geometry Accommodate MnDOT Land Use Safety Zones

Initial Facility Requirements Pavement Condition Index (2010) Twy C Twy B Twy E Twy A Twy A Twy D

Initial Facility Requirements Pavement Condition Index (2015 Projected) Twy C Twy B Twy E Twy A Twy A Twy D

Initial Facility Requirements Pavement Condition Index (2020 Projected) Twy C Twy B Twy E Twy A Twy A Twy D

Presentation Agenda Opening Remarks Project Status Aviation Demand Forecast Critical Aircraft Initial Facility Requirements Discussion

Discussion Committee Feedback & Input Working Paper #2 Comments Comments by Friday, June 17 Provide comments to Brian Ryks or Jeff.Smith@rsandh.com Next Committee Meeting in August