Nordic Tourism Outlook March 218 1
Nordic travel relative to wider global demand Europe has long been the recipient of the lion's share of international travel including some of the most popular destinations in the world. In 2, it received 57% of total global visitors. However, despite growth in European arrivals its share has since diminished. The Nordic region is a subset of Europe, which in itself received 3% of total global arrivals in 2. And while the rest of Europe's global share was diminishing, the Nordic region continued to attract 3% share of all travel in 217. Growth in the Nordic region outpaced travel to the rest of Europe over this period. The majority of European arrivals come from within the region, but rising household wealth and travel demand, along with increased connectivity and development of emerging destinations has facilitated an increased propensity for travelling further afield. This has allowed some other regions to gain share. In addition, the rate of economic growth in Asia and household wealth accumulation has created demand that did not previously exist, with the emergence of a new travel class in emerging markets such as China. Much of the new tourism demand has been for short-haul destinations, and notably within Asia. However, some demand has seeped into Europe and stymied its loss of share to a degree. Many of the largest city destinations in the world for international travel are within Europe and are set to enjoy continued growth in demand, even if this involves some loss of global market share. Nordics in the context of global arrivals No. of arrivals (s) 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Middle East & Africa Americas Nordics Rest of Europe Asia Pacific 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Share of international travel by region No. of arrivals (s), 217 % share of global arrivals, 217 The charts opposite show total international arrivals to country destinations at a regional level. For example, Europe includes total international arrivals at all European country destinations included within the Global Country Travel service. The top chart shows the total number of international arrivals growing over time since 2 (with some decline following the global financial crisis in 27-8) and the proportion of total arrivals owing to each region of the world. The bottom chart gives a snapshot based on 217 arrivals, by which point Europe's share of total arrivals was just shy of half the world total. 37,91 3% 29,293 16% 139,466 1% 317,749 24% Asia Pacific Rest of Europe Nordics Americas Middle East & Africa 63,317 47% Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 2
Nordic travel from major long-haul markets Short-haul travel accounts for the bulk of the travel demand for Nordic destinations (81%) - a comparable ratio to many other European destinations. Long-haul travel is taking a growing share of demand. Long-haul markets accounted for just 12% of arrivals in Nordic destinations in 2 and the ratio fell to 9% in 23. Since then the trend has been upward and by 27 long-haul markets provided 16% of all arrivals. Long-haul market importance fell during the financial crisis but has since risen further to generate 19% of all arrivals in 217. Arrivals from the large source markets of USA, China and India accounted for over half of the total long-haul demand in 27. These markets are expected to continue to grow in prominence and drive long-haul demand growth. China and India in particular are rapidly growing developing markets and will continue to rise in importance and support growth to the Nordic region. Arrivals volumes from India and China represented less than 1% of total arrivals in 2 and around 1.5% of Nordic arrivals by 27. By 217, these markets accounted for 3.6% of all Nordic arrivals, and almost twofifths of all demand from long-haul markets. Over the next ten years, rapid economic growth in China and India and the continued emergence of a new middle class will further fuel travel demand. These markets are expected to provide over 5% of all travel to the Nordic region. Growth from the the US has not been as dramatic, but it is expected to remain a larger source market. In 2, the US provided around 4% of all travel to the region. This share fluctuated in the following years but was little changed by 27. However, in recent years, the importance of the US has increased sharply and it provided 7% of all arrivals in 217. The US is expected to continue to grow as a source market and is set to increase slightly further in importance over the coming ten years. Long-haul share of arrivals to Nordic countries % share arrivals 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Share of arrivals to Nordic countries No. of arrivals (s), 217 % share of total arrivals, 217 2,64 7% 264 1% 1,85 3% 3,43 8% 3,879 81% Short-haul US India China Other long-haul Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 3
Outbound travel from major long-haul source markets US: Distribution of outbound travel No. arrivals (s) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, India: Distribution of outbound travel No. arrivals (s) 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, China: Distribution of outbound travel No. arrivals (s) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Rest World Rest Europe Nordics US: Distribution of long-haul travel % total outbound by destination region 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Rest World Rest Europe Nordics India: Distribution of long-haul travel % total outbound by destination region Rest World Rest Europe Nordics China: Distribution of long-haul travel % total outbound by destination region 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Rest Europe Nordics Rest Europe Nordics Rest Europe Nordics Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 4
Arrivals from major long-haul markets There have been a number of boom and bust cycles since 2, with declines most notable in the 27-9 period during the global financial crisis. But as the global recovery has gathered pace there has been a marked uptick in the number of arrivals from these three long-haul source markets. And this growth is expected to continue into the forecast period. Travel to Nordic countries from the US and India doubled over the past ten years. Chinese travel was even more rapid and 217 arrivals were almost four times larger than in 27. Growth from the US was particularly strong in recent years and is expected to slow over the next decade as the dollar weakens. Growth is expected to average 5% per year over the 217-27 period (down from around 7% average growth over the past decade) which will be aided by a stable economy and faciltiated further by increasing connectivity between the US and Europe. Transatlantic low cost services, such as those provided by Norwegian, will continue to drive some demand growth. US will remain the largest of the three long-haul markets. It is currently around 2.5 times larger than China in terms of arrivals volumes, although this gap will narrow slightly. Growth in demand from India is set to slow moderately from an average rate of 7% over the past ten years to 6% over the next decade. There is large upside potential given expected economic growth, and scope for further reform, but the forecasts remain cautious. Travel from China is set to slow but visitor volumes should more than double again over the next ten years. This growth is tied to household wealth accumulation and the emergence of a new travel class. An increasing amount of this demand will be attracted to European and Nordic destinations. US: Arrivals to Nordic countries No. of arrivals (s) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 India visitor arrivals to Nordic countries No. arrivals (s) 6 China visitor arrivals to Nordic countries No. arrivals (s) 2,5 5 2, 4 1,5 3 2 1, 1 5 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 5
Distribution of Nordic arrivals by source market US: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 India: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 China: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 Norway Norway Expected arrivals growth from US Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels Norway % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected arrivals growth from India Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected arrivals growth from China Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels Norway % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Note: Norway does not report arrivals from India. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 6
Arrivals from major long-haul markets Arrivals growth profiles for each constituent country of the Nordic region from the US, India, and China are broadly aligned over the historical period. There are some broadly comparable trends by destination country and source market but with some variance in the magnitude of movements. has enjoyed an explosion in arrivals in recent years, helped by its growing status as a transatlantic hub which has facilitated significant growth from the US. However, has also experienced spectacular growth from China in recent years. It still only receives a relatively small share of Nordic demand (5% US travel to the region and 2% Chinese travel), but growth is set to moderate from all source markets. Arrivals to from these long-haul source markets have been the most sensitive to economic shocks in the historical period, notably in the global financial crisis years. During this period declines in arrivals to were significantly greater than those felt by other Nordic countries. The relative proximity of the Nordic countries and their unified visa requirements (as part of the Schengen Area) mean they can largely all be jointly visited by long-haul travellers as part of a single trip. Future arrivals growth outlook, much like their historical trends, are broadly aligned, with the outlier in some cases. US: Arrivals to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Norway India: Arrivals to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 2 China: Arrivals to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 25 18 16 2 14 12 15 1 8 1 6 4 5 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Norway Note: Norway does not report arrivals from India. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 7
Nights from major long-haul markets Overnights from these markets have been growing at a faster pace than arrivals. This means that on average visitors from these long-haul source markets are typically staying in the Nordic region for longer than in the past. This is an economic benefit for the region as longer stays translate into higher spending, GDP contribution, and employment. Average length of stay in each Nordic country remains relatively low and many visitors from long-haul travel around the region, including on organised tours, visiting multiple destinations within the same trip. The average length of stay in each country for a visitor from the US in 2 was 1.2 days and rose to 1.8 days in 217. In the forecast period this will increase slightly more before falling to 1.6 days by 227. Overnights growth from the US to the Nordic region is expected to average 3.5% per year over the 217-27 period. In 2 the average length of a trip to each Nordic country from India and China was similar but by 217 this has risen to 1.3 days from India and to 2.2 days from China. This faster rate of growth from China may be tied to its higher wealth per capita versus India, which facilitates longer trips abroad. Overnights growth from India and China are expected to grow by an average rate of 5.1% and 6.2% per year respectively over the 217-27 period. US: Nights to Nordic countries No. of nights (s) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Average length of stay by market for the region as a whole will likely be higher than the figures described above as multiple destinations may be visited per trip. 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 India: Nights to Nordic countries No. nights (s) 8 China: Nights to Nordic countries No. nights (s) 3,5 7 3, 6 2,5 5 4 3 2, 1,5 2 1, 1 5 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 8
Distribution of Nordic overnights by source market US: Nights to Nordic countries, 217 India: Nights to Nordic countries, 217 China: Nights to Nordic countries, 217 Norway Norway Expected nights growth from US Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels Norway Expected nights growth from India Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels Expected nights growth from China Nordic destinations ranked based on 217 levels Norway % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Note: Norway does not report nights from India. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 9
Nights from major long-haul markets Some more detailed data are available for overnights to Nordic destinations than for visits; also notable in city data. Overnights growth profiles for each constituent country of the Nordic region from the US, India, and China are broadly aligned over the historical period, as in the arrivals data. has enjoyed massive overnights growth in recent years from all selected long-haul source markets, mirroring the strong growth in arrivals. However, growth from India was evident in earlier years than for the other markets, and notably in the years to 27. More recent data shows that growth in overnights in from India has been more subdued than the increases from other source markets and also more subdued than Indian growth to other Nordic destinations. In contrast to its arrivals growth profile, overnights to from the long-haul source markets are more comparable to the profiles for the other Nordic countries in terms of year-to-year volatility. This also implies some improvement in average length of stay, but it should also be noted that Swedish data for nights and arrivals may not be fully consistent. US: Nights to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Norway India: Nights to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 2 China: Nights to Nordic countries Index 217 = 1 25 18 16 2 14 12 15 1 8 1 6 4 5 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Norway Note: Norway does not report nights from India. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 1
US forecast Outbound travel from the United States has grown significantly over the past ten years, and notably over the past five years, helped by the relative strength of the dollar which has improved the affordability of outbound travel. While the strength of the dollar is waning, sizeable growth is still expected with all Nordic destinations benefitting. had the greatest number of arrivals from the US in 27 and 217, and is expected to remain the most popular Nordic country for US visitors in 227 in terms of footfall. However, rapid growth in travel to means that by 217 was the most popular overnights destinations with 3 times as many US overnights as, the next most popular overnight destination in the Nordic region. By 227, is expected to remain the most popular overnights destination in the region, boasting more than twice the number of overnights than, the next most popular. Average length of stay is much higher for US travellers to than for any of the other Nordic destinations. This may be due to more independent visits rather than as part of a multi-destination trip. New York is the a top source market city for European destinations and also for Nordics. Los Angeles is the next largest city market, despite the longer flight distance involved. Houston and Chicago are among the top five source markets for travel to long-haul destinations, Europe and the Nordics. US: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. arrivals (s) 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Norway 27 217 227 US: Nights to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. nights (s) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Norway 27 217 227 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 11
India forecast India's outbound travel is set to continue to grow in line with economic expansion. It is one of the fastest growing large economies (with the fastest GDP growth among BRICs), and it is becoming an increasingly important source market for many destinations including the Nordic countries. received the greatest number of arrivals from India in 27 and 217, and is expected to remain the most popular Nordic country for Indian visits in 227. This is also true of overnights, which also imply a low average length of stay. However, the short stays do not appear to be related to trips involving mutliple Nordic destinations as travel is highly concentrated in. Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai are the top city source markets. Source market patterns are comparable to the rest of Europe. India: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. arrivals (s) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 27 217 227 India: Nights to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. nights (s) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 27 217 227 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 12
China forecast Chinese outbound travel is set to continue to grow in line with economic expansion and the rapid growth of China's middle class. Some growth in Chinese travel demand to Europe is expected and will be aided by ever-improving air links. was the most popular Chinese arrivals destination in the Nordic region in 27, but in 217 was overtaken by and Norway, in terms of visits. By 227, is expected to reclaim its position as the most visited Nordic country by Chinese tourists. The trend in overnights broadly follows this pattern, but with some differences due to patterns in typical length of stay. Norway has also overtaken in terms of overnights in 217, while remains the third largest destination in terms of overnights. Lower length of stay in may be due to its growing status as a significant European air traffic hub. This is particularly emphasised by the large route selection between Helsinki and Asia: in 216 Helsinki offered 25 weekly flights to destinations in China, whereas offered 14 and nine. There are clear opportunities to increase overnights, and the associated economic benefit, by encouraging long-haul visitors to spend longer within the country. Shanghai is the largest city source market for travel to long-haul destinations, Europe and the Nordics. Hong Kong and Beijing are also a very important markets, while Guangzhou and Tianjin are also among the top ten source markets. China: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. arrivals (s) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Norway 27 217 227 China: Nights to top Nordic countries, 27-227 No. nights (s) 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Norway 27 217 227 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 13
Top Global city destinations, 216 vs 221 Global cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 221 Global cities: international arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 221 Chongqing (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Shanghai (CN) Bangkok (TH) Karachi (PK) Macao, China (MO) Mexico City (MX) Dubai (AE) Beijing (CN) London (UK) Tokyo (JP) Istanbul (TR) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Singapore (SG) Hangzhou, Zhejiang (CN) Kuala Lumpur (MY) Bangkok (TH) New York, NY Hong Kong, China (HK) Tokyo (JP) Chengdu, Sichuan (CN) Shenzhen (CN) Shenyang, Liaoning (CN) Las Vegas, NV Hokkaido (JP) 216 221 Antalya (TR) Paris (FR) Rome (IT) 216 221 Acapulco (MX) Tunis (TN) Lahore (PK) Barcelona (ES) Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN) Guangzhou, New York, NY Kuwait City (KW) Ningbo, Zhejiang (CN) Qingdao, Shandong (CN) Top 2 Los Angeles, CA Osaka (JP) Top 2 (SE) (IS) Oslo (NO) (SE) (IS) Oslo (NO) Gothenburg (SE) (DK) Helsinki (FI) Helsinki (FI) (DK) Gothenburg (SE) 5, 1, 15, 1, 2, 3, 4, Arrivals (mns) Arrivals (mns) Markets shown above are the 2 largest city destinations globally, ranked according to expected total arrivals in 221, plus Nordic city destinations. The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 221 as well as its size in 216. The red dashed line separates Nordic destinations from top markets as Nordic destinations fall outside the top 2. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 14
Top European city destinations, 216 vs 221 European cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 221 European cities: international arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 221 London (UK) London (UK) Antalya (TR) Istanbul (TR) Istanbul (TR) Antalya (TR) Paris (FR) Paris (FR) Rome (IT) Rome (IT) Warsaw (PL) Barcelona (ES) Berlin (DE) Amsterdam (NL) Cracow (PL) Prague (CZ) Barcelona (ES) Dublin (IE) Madrid (ES) Madrid (ES) Amsterdam (NL) Vienna (AT) Munich (DE) Prague (CZ) Milan (IT) 216 221 Berlin (DE) Warsaw (PL) Lisbon (PT) 216 221 Dublin (IE) Milan (IT) Vienna (AT) Budapest (HU) Hamburg (DE) Cracow (PL) Almaty (KZ) Munich (DE) Frankfurt (DE) Lisbon (PT) Top 2 Bucharest (RO) Brussels (BE) Top 2 (SE) (IS) Oslo (NO) (SE) (IS) Oslo (NO) Gothenburg (SE) (DK) Helsinki (FI) Helsinki (FI) (DK) Gothenburg (SE) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, Arrivals (mns) Arrivals (mns) Markets shown above are Europe's 2 largest city destinations ranked according to expected total arrivals in 221, plus Nordic city destinations. The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 221 as well as its size in 216. The red dashed line separates Nordic destinations from top markets as Nordic destinations fall outside the top 2. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 15
Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets US: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 Oslo Helsinki Gothenburg Rest of India: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 Rest of Rest of Gothenburg Helsinki China: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 217 Oslo Rest of Gothenburg Rest of Norway Rest of Norway Helsinki Rest of Rest of Rest of Rest of Rest of Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from US City destinations based on 217 levels Gothenburg Rest of Rest of Norway Rest of Oslo Rest of Helsinki % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from India City destinations based on 217 levels Rest of Gothenburg Rest of Helsinki Rest of % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from China City destinations based on 217 levels Rest of Gothenburg Oslo Rest of Norway Helsinki Rest of Rest of % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 16
Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets Historic performance by Nordic city destinations in arrivals growth terms followed a similar pattern but varied considerably in terms of magnitude. Broadly speaking the trend observed at the Nordic city level track performance for that Nordic country as a whole, largely due to relatively low number of city destinations within the Nordic region. is the only Nordic country for which we have data for more than one city destination: data show some stronger arrivals growth in Gothenburg in earlier years compared to. But data also show that Gothenburg was more negatively impacted by the global financial crisis of 27-8 than ; this was symptomatic of its smaller and less diverse visitor mix (including fewer business travellers, and less VFR) which proved less resilient to the economic shock of the global financial crisis. Some large declines in arrivals from China to Gothenburg were notable in 29, but this followed sizeable growth in 28 which may be related to Gothenburg hosting the World Figure Skating Championships. With a lower base of Chinese visitors the impact of an event such as the World Figure Skating Championships can be significant in growth terms, but relatively small in volumes terms. There is large, and growing, demand for travel beyond the capital cities from all long-haul source markets. Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from US Index 217 = 1 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from India Index 217 = 1 25 Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from China Index 217 = 1 3 2 25 15 2 15 1 1 5 5 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 17
Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets US: Nights to top Nordic cities, 217 Rest of Helsinki Gothenburg India: Nights to top Nordic cities, 217 Rest of Rest of Gothenburg Rest of China: Nights to top Nordic cities, 217 Oslo Rest of Gothenburg Oslo Helsinki Rest of Norway Rest of Norway Helsinki Rest of Rest of Rest of Rest of Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from US City destinations based on 217 levels Gothenburg Rest of Rest of Norway Oslo Rest of Rest of Helsinki % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from India City destinations based on 217 levels Gothenburg Rest of Rest of Rest of Helsinki % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from China City destinations based on 217 levels Rest of Gothenburg Helsinki Rest of Rest of Oslo Rest of Norway % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 18
Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets In terms of overnights to Nordic city destinations from the US, India, and China, patterns are similar to those observed for overnights at the Nordic country level due to a relatively low number of city destinations within the Nordic countries and within the Nordic region as a whole. The main capital city destinations are more important when measured in terms of overnights than in terms of arrivals; a higher share of overnights are in these cities than the proportion of arrivals. This implies a higher average length of stay in these cities than in the rest of the country. Cities are important hubs for travel, and for exploring the rest of the country. The cities shown here are the main gateways for long-haul travellers to enter the city and often provide a base from which travellers then explore the rest of the country. There are large economic benefits for these cities from long-haul travel despite some relatively low reported arrivals figures. Top Nordic city destinations, Nights from US Index 217 = 1 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Top Nordic city destinations, nights from India Index 217 = 1 25 Top Nordic city destinations, nights from China Index 217 = 1 3 2 25 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 221 224 227 Gothenburg Helsinki Oslo Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 19
Top US outbound source cities US: Top 1 cities for long-haul travel US: Top 1 cities for travel to Europe US: Top 1 cities for travel to Nordics Miami, FL Washington DC Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Dallas, TX Houston, TX Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Washington DC Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Boston, MA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Washington DC San Francisco, CA Boston, MA Dallas, TX Miami, FL Houston, TX Seattle, WA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Based on 217 levels Houston, TX Dallas, TX Miami, FL Washington DC San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA Boston, MA New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA % 2% 4% 6% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Based on 217 levels Atlanta, GA Houston, TX Dallas, TX Washington DC San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL New York, NY Boston, MA Philadelphia, PA % 2% 4% 6% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 217 levels Houston, TX Seattle, WA Washington DC San Francisco, CA Miami, FL Boston, MA Dallas, TX Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL New York, NY % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 2
Top Indian outbound source cities India: Top 1 cities for long-haul travel Ahmadabad (IN) Hyderabad (IN) Pune (IN) Surat (IN) Agra (IN) Mumbai (IN) India: Top 1 cities for travel to Europe Surat (IN) Ahmadabad (IN) Kolkata (IN) Hyderabad (IN) Agra (IN) Delhi (IN) India: Top 1 cities for travel to Nordics Ahmadabad (IN) Hyderabad (IN) Kolkata (IN) Surat (IN) Agra (IN) Delhi (IN) Kolkata (IN) Pune (IN) Pune (IN) Chennai (IN) Chennai (IN) Chennai (IN) Bangalore (IN) Delhi (IN) Bangalore (IN) Mumbai (IN) Bangalore (IN) Mumbai (IN) Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Based on 217 levels Bangalore Surat Agra Hyderabad Ahmadabad Delhi Chennai Kolkata Pune Mumbai % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Based on 217 levels Bangalore Surat Agra Delhi Hyderabad Ahmadabad Chennai Kolkata Pune Mumbai % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 217 levels Bangalore Surat Hyderabad Agra Ahmadabad Delhi Chennai Kolkata Pune Mumbai % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 21
Top Chinese outbound source cities China: Top 1 cities for long-haul travel China: Top 1 cities for travel to Europe China: Top 1 cities for travel to Nordics Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Qingdao, Shandong (CN) Dongguan, Guangdong (CN) Dalian, Liaoning (CN) Shanghai (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Qingdao, Shandong (CN) Tianjin (CN) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Harbin, Heilongjiang (CN) Shanghai (CN) Beijing (CN) Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN) Tianjin (CN) Guangzhou, Guangdong (CN) Chongqing (CN) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Shanghai (CN) Tianjin (CN) Guangzhou, Guangdong (CN) Beijing (CN) Beijing (CN) Guangzhou, Guangdong (CN) Dongguan, Guangdong (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Dongguan, Guangdong (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Based on 217 levels Tianjin Shanghai Hong Kong, China Dalian, Liaoning Beijing Dongguan, Guangdong Wuhan, Hubei Qingdao, Shandong Guangzhou, Guangdong Wuxi, Jiangsu % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Based on 217 levels Tianjin Shanghai Harbin, Heilongjiang Beijing Dongguan, Guangdong Wuhan, Hubei Qingdao, Shandong Guangzhou, Guangdong Wuxi, Jiangsu Hong Kong, China % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% CAGR, 217-27 Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 217 levels Tianjin Shanghai Chongqing Beijing Dongguan, Guangdong Wuhan, Hubei Guangzhou, Guangdong Wuxi, Jiangsu Nanjing, Jiangsu Hong Kong, China % 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 217-27 Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 22
About Us Tourism Economics Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics company with a singular focus on quantitative analysis of the travel industry. By combining rigorous modeling with industry knowledge, Tourism Economics develops custom market strategies, industry forecasts, policy analysis and economic impact studies. Our parent company, Oxford Economics, is one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University's business college, Oxford Economics enjoys a reputation for high quality, quatitative analysis and evidence-based advice. Sources used in this document: All national and regional level data come from Tourism Economics' Global Travel / TDM service, and city level data come from Tourism Economics' Global City Travel service. In both services, tourism statistics are sourced from a variety of national statistical agencies. Specific sources for Nordics destinations are: : Statistics : Visit & Statistics : Statistics Norway: Statistics Norway : Statistics & Swedish Agency for Economic Growth For non-nordics destinations (e.g. as in the Global Top Cities and European Top Cities charts), data are sourced from official statistical agencies, where this information is published. Where data are not direclty published, estimates are derived from industry data (lodging and aviation data). Further details of methodology can be provided upon request. Contacts North American Clients: Adam Sacks (adam@tourismeconomics.com), or; Aran Ryan (aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com) Non-North American Clients: David Goodger (dgoodger@oxfordeconomics.com), or; Helen McDermott (hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com) Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist Tel: +44 28 9263 544 e-mail: hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com 23