Results of Tourism Activity August 2018 Undersecretariat of Planning and Tourism Policy Available in http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/versionesrat.aspx
DIRECTORy ENRIQUE DE LA MADRID CORDERO Minister of Tourism MARÍA TERESA SOLÍS TREJO Undersecretary of Planning and Tourism Policy DIRECTORATE-GENERAL OF INTEGRATION AND SECTORAL INFORMATION integracion@sectur.gob.mx monitoreodatatur@sectur.gob.mx 2
INDEX Outstanding results International Visitors to Mexico 1. Arrival of international visitors 1.1. Arrival of international tourists 1.2. International travel receipts 1.3. Average Expenditure of Long-Stay tourists, Air transport 1.4. Departures of international tourists from Mexico 1.5. Spending by international visitors from Mexico 1.6. International travelers balance 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 Air Transportation by residence 2. International visitors to Mexico arriving by Air 2.1. American passengers arriving by Air 2.2. Canadian passengers arriving by Air 2.3. Main airports of arrival 12 13 13 14 Domestic Tourism 3.1. Occupancy rate 3.2. Arrival of tourists to Hotels Transportation 4.1. Air Transportation 4.2. Maritime Transportation 4.3. Main Ports 16 16 18 20 21 Museums and archeological sites 5.1. Museums and archeological sites 23 Other Indicators 6. Results of tourism activity, tablet 6.1 Macroeconomic indicators, prospects 6.2 Mexico s key economic indicators 6.3 Economic context 25 26 27 28 3
Main results published by INEGI for the period January-August 2018* 1. The arrival of international tourists was 27.8 million, exceeding one million 801 thousand tourists, this represented a growth of 6.9% in comparison to the same period of last year. 2. Foreign currency income from the arrival of international visitors was 15,380 million dollars equivalent to an increase of 4.7% in comparison to January-August. 3. The amount of foreign currency that visitors residing in Mexico spent when going abroad was 7,376 million dollars, amount at 550 million dollars higher than that observed in January-August of and equivalent to an increase of 8.1%. 4. The international tourist departures of Mexico abroad amounted to 12 million 936 thousand, this is 972 thousand more tourists to the same period of last year, which represented a growth of 8.1%. 5. The balance by international visitors registered 8,004 million dollars, this represents an increase of 1.8% in comparison to January-August of. Other results: 6. The arrival of foreign air-coming visitors who reside in the United States represents 60.4% of all foreign arrivals by air transport. From the Latin American and the Caribbean region, the countries of residence with the highest number of foreign arrivals to Mexico were Argentina and Colombia, with 2.7% and 2.5% of total visitors respectively. 7. The percentage of hotel occupation in a group of 70 resorts reached 62.5%, level (-) 0.7 point lower compared to that observed in January-August of. 8. The arrival of domestic tourists to hotel rooms was 40 million 535 thousand tourists (72.7%), the remaining arrivals 15 million 202 thousand (27.3%), were from foreign tourists. * The International Travelers Survey is a project carried out at INEGI following the transfer process carried out in November by the Bank of Mexico, which has an operative lift as of August 1 of this year.. The update of the information will be on the 10th of each month (or the next business day). 4
International Visitors to Mexico
Arrival of international visitors Chart 1. According to the INEGI and Bank of Mexico, during January-August 2018, the number of international visitors arriving Mexico was 65.9 million, that is 77 thousand visitors higher than January-August and represented a growth of 0.1% in comparison to the same period of. January-August Million visitors Million of people 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 8.4 8.0 9.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 7.2 65.8 2018 65.9 0.1% 6.0 5.5 8.3 7.8 8.9 8.2 7.8 8.4 8.7 7.7 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Arrival of international tourists Chart 2. The arrival of international tourists in January-August 2018 was 27.8 million, reaching one million 801 thousand more than the same period of, increasing 6.9%. January-August Million tourists Million of tourists 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 25.9 2018 27.8 6.9% 1.9 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Source: Bank of Mexico, Balance of payments. http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantesinternacionales.aspx Note: In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures. 6
International travel receipts Chart 3. In January-August 2018, foreign currency income from the arrival of international visitors was 15,380 million dollars, equivalent to an increase of 4.7% in comparison to the same period of. January-August Million dollars 14,687.8 2018 15,379.7 4.7% Millon of Dollars 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,945.0 1,918.3 2,365.1 1,791.3 1,688.7 1,873.4 1,945.8 1,852.3 1,100 900 700 1,927.3 1,798.4 2,073.9 1,833.3 1,634.2 1,839.8 1,988.6 1,592.3 1,249.9 1,421.1 1,721.3 2,256.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Source: Bank of Mexico, Balance of payments http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantesinternacionales.aspx 7
Average Expenditure of Long-Stay tourists, Air transport Chart 4. In January-August 2018, the average expenditure of long-stay tourists by air was 917.1 dollars, this represents a decrease of (-) 0.8% in comparison to the same period of. January-August Dollars 924.6 2018 917.1-0.8% 1,050.0 950.0 901.4 924.2 947.5 897.2 885.6 871.4 885.9 1,032.1 Dollars 850.0 750.0 650.0 550.0 968.8 950.8 924.7 923.9 909.0 898.2 912.8 904.3 876.6 868.0 884.2 873.7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Source: Bank of Mexico, Balance of payments. http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantesinternacionales.aspx 8
DEPARTURES OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST FROM MEXICO Chart 5. According to INEGI and Bank of Mexico, during January-August 2018, the number of departures of international tourist from Mexico was 12 million 936 thousands, that is 972 thousand more tourists than the same period of and represents a growth of 8.1%. January-August Million tourists 11.9 2018 12.9 8.1% Millones de turistas 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 Ene Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dic. 2018 Note: In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures. SPENDING BY INTERNATIONAL visitors FROM MEXICO Chart 6. In January-August 2018, foreign currency spent by visitors residing in Mexico when going abroad was 7,376 million dollars, higher 550 million dollars to the observed in the same period of and equivalent to a annual increase of 8.1%. January-August Million dollars 6,826.1 2018 7,376.0 8.1% Source: Bank of Mexico, Balance of payments http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantesinternacionales.aspx Million dollars 1,125.0 1,050.0 975.0 900.0 825.0 750.0 675.0 600.0 525.0 450.0 375.0 300.0 902.8 1,015.4 737.7 661.6 828.7 712.6 870.1 896.8 846.0 Note: In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures. 943.3 819.0 882.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,009.7 2018 1,050.6 1,004.3 1,021.1 869.1 982.6 9 1,034.8 1,127.4
International travelers balance Chart 7. The balance by international visitors in January-August 2018, registered a surplus of 8,004 million dollars, this represents an increase of 1.8% in comparison to the same period of. January-August Million dollars 7,861.7 2018 8,003.7 1.8% Monthly Balance in the Balance of Oil, Minerometalurgy and International Travelers 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 831.2 Million dollars 500.0 0.0-500.0-1,000.0-1,500.0-2,000.0-175.3-2,500.0-3,000.0 Oil Minerometalurgy Visitors -2,228.2 Note: In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures. Source: Bank of Mexico, Balance of payments http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantesinternacionales.aspx 10
Air Transportation
International visitors to Mexico arriving by Air Chart 8. During January-August 2018, the arrival of foreign air-coming visitors who reside in the United States represents 60.4% of all foreign arrivals by air. From the Latin American and the Caribbean region, the countries of residence with the highest number of foreign arrivals in Mexico were Argentina and Colombia, with 2.7% and 2.5% of total visitors respectively. Canada 12.0% United Kingdom 3.0% United States 60.4% Other 19.4% Argentina 2.7% Colombia 2.5% Note: In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures Source: Migration Policy Unit, SEGOB http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantes%20por%20nacionalidad.aspx 12
American passengers per airport Chart 9. The American residents who arrived to Mexico by air increased 1.3% in January-August 2018 compared to the same period of, registering 7 million 612 thousands passengers who arrived firstly at the Cancun Airport, followed by Mexico City Airport. January-August American Passengers Passengers 3,501,000 3,001,000 2,501,000 2,001,000 1,501,000 1,001,000 501,000 1,000 3,064,122 3,082,529 1,272,253 1,186,657 1,102,512 Cancun, Q., Roo Mexico, City Los Cabos, B.C.S. Puerto Vallarta, Jal. 1,087,103 698,159 633,995 744,520 2018 609,488 Guadalajara, Jal. 840,723 806,938 Others 7,517,246, 2018 7,611,764 1.3% Canadian passengers per airport Chart 10. In January-August 2018, the Canadian residents who arrived to Mexico by air was 15% higher in comparison to the same period of. They firstly arrived at the Cancun Airport, followed by Puerto Vallarta Airport. January-August Canadian passengers 1,315,823 Passengers 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 776,451 687,687 Cancun, Quintana Roo 304,923 248,633 Puerto Vallarta, Jal. 2018 187,040 92,057 117,189 142,927 34,997 82,493 34,032 119,599 Mexico City Los Cabos, B.C.S. Huatulco, Oax. Others 2018 1,512,657 15% Source: Migration Policy Unit, SEGOB http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantes%20por%20residencia.aspx 13
Main airports of arrival Figure 1. In January-August 2018, the airports with the highest number of foreign passengers were: Cancun (5,543,813); Mexico City (2,991,521); Los Cabos (1,207,089); Puerto Vallarta (1,045,079); Guadalajara (686,689); Monterrey (171,047) and Cozumel (154,847); which represents 93.7% of all foreign passengers. January-August 2018 Mexico City Quintana Roo Nuevo Leon Los Cabos B.C.S. 1,183,874 Pto. Vallarta Guadalajara 1,028,224 655,600 Mexico City 2,732,949 Cancun Cozumel 5,345,855 155,576 Monterrey 172,437 2018 1,207,089 2018 1,045,079 686,689 2% Chnage 1.6% 4.7% 2018 2,991,521 9.5% 2018 5,543,813 3.7% -0.5% 154,847 2018 171,047-0.8% Note: Figures refers to events because the same person may have entered the country in more than one occasion. From this date only the residence of international passengers is considered and the nationality of the passengers is not longer used. Source: Migration Policy Unit, SEGOB http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/visitantes%20por%20residencia.aspx 14
Domestic Tourism
Occupancy rate 64% 63.2% 62.5% Rate 62% 60% 58% 56% Chart 11.The percentage of hotel occupation in a group of 70 resorts during January-August 2018, reached 62.5%, level (-) 0.7 point higher in comparison to 63.2% of January-August. 54% 52% January-August January-August 2018 Arrival of tourists to Hotels 55.0 54.4 55.7 Million of tourist 49.5 44.0 38.5 33.0 27.5 22.0 16.5 39.5 40.5 14.9 15.2 Chart 12. In January-August 2018, the arrival of domestic tourists to hotel rooms was 40.5 million tourists (72.7%), the remaining arrivals (27.3%) were from foreign tourists. 11.0 5.5 0.0 Domestic Foreing Total January-August January-August 2018 Notes: Total occupancy is a weighted average of the 70 destinations monitored. The total arrivals of tourists to hotel rooms registered an increase of X.X%, compared to January-August. In the graphs the sum of the data does not coincide with the accumulated period due to the rounding of figures. Source: Information of 70 resorts monitored by DataTur. http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/actividadhotelera.aspx 16
Transportation
AIR TRANSPORTATION Chart 13. In January-August 2018, the number of passengers arriving by air increased 8.1% in comparison to the same period of, reaching 49 million 503 thousand passengers, equivalent to an increase of 3 million 706 thoudand passengers. January-August Thousand passengers 45,797.0 2018 49,502.5 8.1% Thousands of people 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 6,399 5,999 5,402 5,616 4,918 5,667 6,180 6,104 6,043 5,693 5,590 5,795 6,986 6,534 6,391 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 5,984 4,814 5,450 5,783 6,427 Chart 14. During January-August 2018, the number of passengers arriving by air on domestic flights was 32 million 899 thousand passengers, representing 2 million 685 thousand passengers (8.9%) more that the same period of previous year. January-August Thousand passengers 30,213.4 2018 32,898.5 8.9% Thousands of people 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 4,749 4,077 4,115 4,170 4,454 4,113 3,790 3,429 3,569 3,107 3,590 3,752 3,824 3,850 4,384 4,136 3,414 3,820 3,882 4,030 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Preliminary figures / Source: Airports and Auxiliary Services (SCT) http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/trasnaerea.aspx 18
Chart 15. In January-August 2018, the number of passengers arriving by air on international flights increased 6.5%, reaching 16 million 604 thousand passengers, exceeding by one million 20 thousand passengers than the same period of. January-August Thousand passengers 15,583.6 2018 16,604.1 6.5% Thousands of people 2,400 2,150 1,900 1,650 1,400 2,208 1,973 2,322 1,989 1,872 2,067 2,237 1,936 1,150 900 2,047 1,811 2,077 1,941 1,766 1,944 2,150 1,848 1,400 1,629 1,901 2,397 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Preliminary figures / Source: Airports and Auxiliary Services (SCT) http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/trasnaerea.aspx 19
Maritime Transportation Thousands of people 1,000.00 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00-877.1 846.9 776.1 776.7 665.5 808.6 667.6 654.8 538.7 484.4 490.8 517.8 456.7 435.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 410.7 2018 380.9 485.2 643.9 789.5 791.7 Chart 16. In January-August 2018, the number of cruise passengers reached 5 million 199 thousand passengers, this representing an increase of 610 thousand passengers (13.3%) compared to the same period of previous year January-August Thousand Passengers 4,589 2018 5,199 13.3% Arrivals 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50-336 302 305 236 179 143 139 147 313 262 279 233 167 139 124 115 158 218 261 289 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chart 17.The number of cruise arrivals during January-August 2018, was one thousand 787 cruises, compared to the previous year, increased in 155 cruises that represents a 9.5%. January-August Arrivals 1,632 2018 1,787 9.5% 2018 Source: General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Navy, Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT) http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/actividades%20en%20crucero.aspx 20
Main Ports Figure 2. In January-August 2018, the ports that received the highest number of passengers were the following: Cozumel, Majahual and Ensenada; representing 79.3% of the total arrivals of January-August. January-August 2018 Ensenada, B.C. Cabo San Lucas, B.C.S. Progreso, Yuc. Majahual, Q. Roo Cozumel, Q. Roo 2018 arrivals passengers 168 413,230 171 429,393 arrivals passengers arrivals passengers arrivals passengers arrivals passengers 2018 112 110 236,947 260,356 2018 83 103 263,323 310,718 2018 200 257 579,626 812,576 2018 810 866 2,654,498 2,881,448 1.8% 3.9% -1.8% 9.9% 24.1% 18% 28.5% 40.2% 6.9% 8.5% Source: General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Navy, Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT) http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/sitepages/actividades%20en%20crucero.aspx 21
Museums and archeological sites
Visitors to museums and archeological sites Chart 18. The National Institute of Anthropology and History, in January-August 2018, reported 18 million 165 thousand visitors, 0.7% more than reported in the same period of the previous year. Of the total number of visitors, 74.7% corresponded to national visitors and the 25.3% to foreigners. January-August Thousand visitors 18,043.5 2018 18,165.1 0.7% 18.0 16.0 15.6 15.7 Millon of people 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 12.0 11.7 3.6 4.0 2.0 0.0 Domestic Foreing Total Jan-Jul Jan-Jul 2018 Source: National Institute of Anthropology and History (INAH) 23
Other Indicators
Results of Tourism Activity Gross Domes c Product Infla on En ty Real growth % (% dec/dec) 2018 2019 2018 2019 International Monetary Fund 2.19 2.52 4.77 3.62 OCDE 2.20 2.50 3.86 3.41 Banco de México Survey 2.13 2.17 4.56 3.80 Ministry of the Treasury and Public Credit 2.0 a 3.0 2.5 a 3.5 3.50 3.00 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database (November 2018); OECD, Economic Outlook (2018/09); Bank of Mexico, Expectations Survey Economic Specialist Private Sector (10/01/18); Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, Pre- General Criteria 2019. 25
Macroeconomic indicators, prospects Gross Domes c Product Infla on En ty Real growth % (% dec/dec) 2018 2019 2018 2019 International Monetary Fund 2.19 2.52 4.77 3.62 OCDE 2.20 2.50 3.86 3.41 Banco de México Survey 2.13 2.17 4.56 3.80 Ministry of the Treasury and Public Credit 2.0 a 3.0 2.5 a 3.5 3.50 3.00 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database (November 2018); OECD, Economic Outlook (2018/09); Bank of Mexico, Expectations Survey Economic Specialist Private Sector (10/01/18); Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, Pre- General Criteria 2019. 26
Mexico s key economic indicators Entries 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3.QIV 2018Q1 2018Q2 jul-18 ago-18 General Economic Ac vity and Services Iden fied with Tourism Gross Domes c Product. Millions of current pesos 20,115,786 21,152,197 21,657,546 21,599,336 22,732,004 21,785,271 22,536,162 23,450,949. Constant prices annual varia ons in % 2.9 3.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.6 Ter ary ac vi es - Air Transporta on (481). Millions of current pesos 40,976 37,296 50,054 45,685 48,836 45,468 40,657 51,000. Constant prices annual varia ons in % 9.1 7.1 17.0 10.5 6.7 10.4 14.8 10.4 - Temporary Lodging Services (721). Millions of current pesos 226,194 245,111 258,503 254,050 249,943 251,902 266,520 266,711. Constant prices annual varia ons in % 3.9 1.3 9.9 5.8 3.7 5.1 5.6 0.5 - Food and Beverages Prepara on Services (722). Millions of current pesos 234,031 236,487 251,533 258,673 265,873 253,141 248,440 260,231. Constant prices annual varia ons in % 3.2-1.2 4.9 5.1 5.2 3.5 0.7-0.5 Quarterly Indicators of Tourism Ac vity Tourism GDP. Annual varia ons in % 4.2 3.0 5.6 3.0 1.9 3.4 2.1 Internal tourism consump on. Annual varia ons in % 4.0 4.2 5.2 2.3 1.2 3.2 2.4 Domes c tourism consump on. Annual varia ons in % 0.7 1.7 4.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 Inbound tourism consump on. Annual varia ons in % 24.0 16.0 6.4-0.9-1.5 5.0-3.4 Tourism Employment People Employed in the Tourism Sector (SECTUR)* 3,951,887 3,987,430 4,030,762 4,063,315 4,095,282 4,095,282 4,111,028 4,129,760 Total number of IMSS-Insure Workers Employees insured by IMSS (average of the period) 18,401,344 18,849,402 19,067,655 19,298,001 19,599,373 19,203,608 19,671,887 19,892,251 19,949,244 20,063,433.Permanent 15,785,784 16,147,909 16,361,089 16,567,184 16,777,915 16,463,524 16,815,780 17,025,166 17,085,693 17,254,552.Non-permanent (urban and field) 2,615,560 2,701,493 2,706,567 2,730,817 2,821,458 2,740,084 2,856,107 2,867,085 2,863,551 2,808,881 Unemployment Na onal Rate ** (closing of the period). Total Percentage of PEA 3.54 3.39 3.46 3.55 3.35 3.35 3.14 3.34 3.35 Prices and Exchange Rate*** Na onal Price Index (closing of the period) Consumer (percent varia on) 3.4% 5.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9%. Air transport (percent varia on) 9.8% 4.4% 4.5% -8.3% 2.8% 2.8% -6.0% -1.0% -5.5% -8.4%. Hotel (percent varia on) 6.4% 5.3% 6.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 8.0% 5.7% 0.7% 1.3%. Package Tourist Services (percent varia on) 5.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9%. Restaurants (percent varia on) 7.8% 6.1% 7.5% 6.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% 4.9% 5.8% 5.2% Exchange Rate (peso / dollar). Average of the period 18.664 20.387 18.578 17.819 18.921 18.927 18.772 19.382 19.117 18.809 Business Cycle Indicators and Consumer Confidence (montly difference****). Coincident Indicator. Forward Indicator. Confidence Consumer Index N.A. Not available. Nota: La suma de los datos mensuales no coincide con el acumuldo del periodo, debido al redondeo de cifras. * For 2016 figures for IV quarter. ** For 2016 figures for the fourth quarter. The Tourist Employment dataset is smoothed by averaging the last four quarters of it. The objec ve is to eliminate irregular.fluctua ons in the short and medium term. *** Percentage of all the economically ac ve popula on. Data at the end of the period for annual and monthly figures and average period for quarterly informa on. **** For prices of the consumer: at the end of the year are annual varia ons and same month previos year is for monthly data varia on. ***** Point monthly difference (closing of the period). Sources: SECTUR, INEGI, STYPS, Bank of Mexico. 0.028-0.038-0.061-0.031 0.019 0.019 0.002-0.018-0.016 ND -0.057 0.144 0.129 0.007 0.011 0.011-0.021 0.026 0.074 0.103-0.122 0.170 0.202 0.038-0.074-0.074 0.163 0.573 0.628 0.564 27
Economic context International The steady expansion under way since mid-2016 continues, with global growth for 2018 19 projected to remain at its level. At the same time, however, the expansion has become less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018, 0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. In the United States, momentum is still strong as fiscal stimulus continues to increase, but the forecast for 2019 has been revised down due to recently announced trade measures, including the tariffs imposed on $200 billion of US imports from China. Growth projections have been marked down for the euro area and the United Kingdom, following surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018. Among emerging market and developing economies, the growth prospects of many energy exporters have been lifted by higher oil prices, but growth was revised down for Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, among others, reflecting country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. China and a number of Asian economies are also projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of the recently announced trade measures. Risks to global growth skew to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Domestic The IMF carried out a deep reassessment for emerging markets as a group, where its calculations indicate that growth will weaken in Latin America (especially Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), the Middle East (especially Iran) and emerging economies in Europe (especially Turkey). These more moderate growth numbers and the weaker incoming data that underpin them owe, in part, to a sharp rise in policy uncertainty over the past year a development yet to be reflected in advanced economy financial markets but evident in news-based uncertainty measures. Uncertainty over trade policy is prominent in the wake of US actions (or threatened actions) on several fronts, the responses by its trading partners, and a general weakening of multilateral consultation on trade issues. While the preliminary agreement between the United States and Mexico on some bilateral trade issues has been a step forward, the future of the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) remains uncertain as the United States and Canada work to resolve remaining issues. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018 28