M I T I n t e r n a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Implications of Very Light Jets for the Air Transportation System Philippe A. Bonnefoy bonnefoy@mit.edu R. John Hansman rjhans@mit.edu Global Airline Industry Program Industrial Advisory Board /Airline Industry Consortium Joint Meeting MIT November 4 th 25
Motivation & Introduction Business aviation industry Segment of the General Aviation industry: 37 B$ annually (.4% of 2 GDP) Employment: 511 Growing Industry +67% in # of aircraft (turbine) over the last 1 years Emerged Models in the 198s: Fractional Ownership Programs Future entry of Very Light Jets New opportunities: Large scale on-demand air networks Need to understand the dynamics of entry of VLJs at the N.A.S. level and anticipate the potential impacts in order to allow a successful integration of these new models 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Number of Fixed Wing Turbine Business Aircraft 954 1991 1992 Total Number of Fractional Shares 3 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 15879 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 3834 6217 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 Data source: NBAA, Fact Book 24. * Data source: The National Economic Impact of Civil Aviation, DRI WEFA Inc., 22. (GA figures include Business Aviation and Air Taxi) 2
Very Light Jets (VLJs): A New Class of Aircraft Million 2 18 Gulfstream G2 Citation 1 Horizon 16 Acquisition Unit Price Cost ($ 23) ($) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 NBAA classification New class Very Light Jets Diamond Cessna Excel H4 LearJet 4 LearJet 35 Cessna CJ3 Cessna Bravo Beech 39 Premier I SJ3 Cessna CJ2 Mus tang Avocet Adam 7 Safire Eclipse Cessna CJ1 LearJet 45 LearJet 6 Gulfstream G15 H8XP Cessna Sovereign 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 Max Take Off Weight (lbs) Very Light Jets Data source: Jane's, All the World Aircraft, 24-25 Light Jets Light Jets Medium Jets Medium Jets Heavy Jets Heavy Jets 3
Very Light Jets in Development A/C name: Company: A/C type: Country: Orders: as of: First Delivery*: *expected Eclipse5 Eclipse Aviation Twin Jet U.S. 23- August 25 Q2 26 Mustang Cessna Twin Jet U.S. 24 July 25 Q3 26 Adam7 Adam Aircraft Twin jet U.S. 75 July 24 26+ EMB-VLJ Embraer Twin Jet Brazil 28 ProJet Avocet Aircraft Twin Jet Israel / U.S. not disclosed A/C name: Company: A/C type: Country: Orders: as of: First Delivery*: *expected Epic LT Epic Twin Jet U.S. Not disclosed HondaJet Honda Twin Jet Japan No commercialization commitment Safire26 Safire Aircraft Twin Jet U.S. D-Jet Diamond Aircraft Single Jet Austria/Canada Not disclosed 26 Eviation EV-2 Excel Sport Jet and others entering the race: Spectrum 33 4
Potential Size of this Segment of the Industry 1 8 Honeyw ell Rolls Royce Number of aircraft 6 4 Forecast International FAA 2 Teal group 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 221 223 225 Expected entry of the first VLJs Data Source: -FAA Forecast 25-216: http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/25-216/ -Rolls-Royce outlook: http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aerospace/overview/market/outlook/default.jsp -Aviation International News, Forecasts predict growth for business aviation, http://www.ainonline.com/issues/11_4/11_4_forecastp1.html, 5
6 MIT Potential Modes of Operations Owner flown ( 9 aircraft ) Owned and operated by individuals or companies Fractional Ownership Programs ( 2 aircraft ) e.g. Our Plane (Canada & U.S.) Clubs ( 11 aircraft ) e.g. Aviace (Switzerland) Large Scale On-Demand Air Networks ( 17 aircraft ) Charter: e.g. Pogo (U.S) Per Seat: e.g. DayJet (U.S.) Mix Charter/Per Seat: e.g. LinearAir (U.S.) Freight (? aircraft ) Logistic Networks (e.g. Supply Chain Back Up Networks, Package delivery, etc)
With runway length requirements of 3 ft VLJs will be able to have access to a larger set of airports Runways greater than 3, ft Data Source: FAA, Form 51 7
Analysis of Traffic by Existing Business Jets: Traffic Share by Aircraft Type 4% of the total BJ traffic is performed by the subset of 7 aircraft types (Light Jets) Data Source: ETMS traffic data 8
Horizontal Pattern Analysis One day of traffic in the NAS by Light Jets.5 PDF.4.3.2 68th percentile 93th percentile.1 5 1 15 2 25 Stage Length (in miles) Density Plot: Courtesy of Aleksandra Mozdzanowska Flights performed by the subset of aircraft (light jets: Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 4) 9
WA MIT Light Business Jet Traffic* in 23 HPN APA MDW CMH IAD MD RI TEB LAS PDK DAL HOU 15 operations per day 75 operations per day 15 operations per day PBI Traffic at 34 public airports Light Jets include: Cessna CJ1, CJ2, CJ3, Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker4 Data source: ETMS data (traffic) and FAA Form 51 (airports) 1
Airport Utilization (by airport type) Traffic Share by Airport Type 3 % of the total activity (departures and arrivals) is performed at airports part of the 16 metropolitan regions 5 % of all flights* have at least one end airport in one of 16 metropolitan regions Regional Airport System 5 miles Core Airport Flights performed by the subset of aircraft (Light Jets: Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 4) 11
Volume of Operations in the U.S. Historical data and forecast Millions 2 18 Historical Forecast 216 Outlook (1 years after the entry of VLJs) 16 Very Light Jets Operations / Year 14 12 1 8 6 Entry of VLJs (26)* General Aviation Commuter Air Carrier Military 4 2 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2 2 3 26* 29* 212* 215* 218* * This scenario assumes a delivery rate of 5 very light jets per year starting in 26. 12
Analysis of Traffic Distribution at the Regional Airport System Level example of the New York Region* Airports: Legend Core Secondary Business Av. / High density GA VLJ capable GA non VLJ capable GA Sussex FWM Greenwood 4N1 Danbury DXR Westchester HPN Bridgeport BDR Solsberg N51 Essex CDW Teterboro TEB La Guardia LGA Morristown MMU Islip ISP Newark EWR Farmingdale FRG Linden LDJ Kennedy JFK SMQ Central Jersey 47N Princeton 39N Old Bridge 3N6 Monmouth BLM * The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles) 13
Historical and Forecasted Volumes of Traffic at Airports within the Regional Airport System example of the New York Region* LGA T.A.C. TEB T.A.C. JFK T.A.C. EWR T.A.C. Historical 23 LGA T.A.C. TEB T.A.C. JFK T.A.C. EWR T.A.C. Forecast 216 * The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles) 14
15 MIT Conclusions & Future Directions of Research Conclusion In the short and medium term, VLJ traffic is unlikely to differ from existing LJ traffic. Concentration of traffic implies: Outside high density metro areas: Not an issue, capacity exists Inside high density metro areas Some key airports will become even more congested Capacity crisis at key airports will occur even without VLJs Traffic redistribution mechanisms will take place Core airports Secondary airports; emergence of new secondary airports Core GA reliever airports; strengthening of existing and emergence of new reliever airports Surrounding GA airports; growth of business jet (and Very Light Jet) traffic Strengthened role of small regional airports within key metropolitan areas Need to promote the development of airport systems on a region wide basis Future Directions of Research Investigating the feasibility and the implications of the integration of air carrier and on-demand air networks
16 MIT Questions & Comments