Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey (TOPS) Quarter 3, September 2011 Transport stable as highest priority issue Highlights In the September 2011 quarter, 8% of Australians nominated transport and 12% nominated infrastructure as one of the two highest priority issues in Australia today, a slight decline from the last quarter, with transport highest in NSW (1). Public transport the highest priority for transport Half of Australians (51%) said the highest priority issue for transport in Australia is public transport improvements, compared to 25% for road improvements. Support for public transport continued to be highest in Victoria (6). Confidence about transport in local area In the September 2011 quarter, Australians were slightly more confident about transport in their local area in one year s time. 22% of Australians said transport in their local area will be worse in one year s time, and said it will be better. Victoria had an increase in confidence after the large decline in confidence last quarter. Views stable on transport in Australia in short-term Over a quarter of Australians think transport in Australia will be better in one year s time (26%) and over a quarter think transport will get worse (26%), similar to results last quarter. Australians confident about transport in long-term Australians continue to be more confident that transport in Australia will be better in five years than in one year, with almost half (48%) thinking transport in Australia will be better in five years. Views on transport fuel in the carbon tax 63% of Australians said fuel for buses should not be included in the federal government s proposed carbon tax, disagreeing with the government proposal to include buses from 2014 which may increase the price of public transport. A quarter of respondents (24%) said fuel for buses should be included. A similar proportion (62%) said fuel for household vehicles should not be included, in support of the government proposal. One in five Australians made a distinction between fuel for household vehicles and fuel for buses in the carbon tax. Responses indicated Australians are still developing an understanding of the carbon tax, its complexities and its implications. About the Transport Opinion Survey The Transport Opinion Survey is a quarterly survey of 1,000 adults aged 18 years and over across Australia launched in March 2010. The sample is representative of Australia s population distribution and demographic characteristics. Interviews are conducted by telephone by Taverner Research using trained interviewers. The Quarter 3, September 2011 survey was conducted over 11-25 August 2011. Current issues in the quarter included the release of details on the federal government s carbon price, and concern over global economic conditions. ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 1 of 12
1. Transport as a national priority Which two of these issues [from list of 10 issues in random order] do you think are the highest priority in Australia today? In the September 2011 quarter, health remained the highest priority issue in Australia today: health was nominated by 42% of Australians as one of the two highest priority issues. Economy/ employment was nominated by 39% of Australians, a large increase from 33% last quarter. In the September 2011 quarter, 8% of Australians nominated transport as one of the two highest priority issues in Australia today (down from 9% last quarter), and 12% nominated infrastructure (down from 14% last quarter). Highest priority issues in Australia, Sept 2010-Sept 2011 Health Economy/employment Education Environment Law and order Infrastructure Security and terrorism Housing Social issues Transport 12% 11% 11% 1 8% 18% 39% 42% 1 5 6 Note: Responses sum to 20. September 2011 results are top bar with % value, and previous quarter results (September 2010, December 2010, March 2011 and June 2011) are the lower bars in grey. In the September 2011 quarter, transport remained most important in NSW (1) and Victoria (8%). Transport and infrastructure as highest priority issues by state, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 35% 25% 15% 1 16% 11% 12% 12% 14% Infrastructure Transport 5% 1 8% 7% 7% 4% ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 2 of 12
2. Highest priority issue for transport What do you think is the highest priority issue for transport in Australia now? In the September 2011 quarter, half of Australians (51%) said the highest priority issue for transport in Australia is public transport improvements. Public transport has been the highest priority transport issue in the seven quarters of the survey. A quarter of Australians (25%) said road improvements are the highest priority issue in transport. Highest priority transport issue in Australia, Sept 2010-Sept 2011 Public transport improvements Road improvements Freight and interstate rail Economic/financial issues Environmental issues Aviation and airports Other No issues 8% 4% 2% 1% 5% 2% 1% 25% 51% 1 5 6 7 Note: Responses sum to 10. September 2011 results are top bar with % value, and previous quarter results (September 2010, December 2010, March 2011 and June 2011) are the lower bars in grey. Responses were grouped into the above categories. Other includes responses about transport in general, responses about both public transport and roads, issues not included in other categories, and rebuilding transport after disasters. Public transport improvements was the highest priority issue in transport in every state, as it was in the previous quarter, with the highest support for public transport in Victoria (6). Highest priority transport issue by state, Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 19% 25% 25% 6 33% 5 6 53% 59% 51% 41% 43% 1 NSW VIC QLD SA WA Aust Other No issues Aviation and airports Environment issues Economic/financial issues Freight and interstate rail Roads Public transport ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 3 of 12
3. Confidence about transport improving in local area Compared to 1 year ago, do you think the state of transport in general in your local area is better now, the same, or worse now? In the September 2011 quarter, there was an increase in Australians who said transport in their local area was better now than one year ago (18%, up from 16% last quarter), and a corresponding decrease in those who said transport was worse now than one year ago (26%, down from 28% last quarter). Transport in local area compared to 1 year ago (Australia), Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 8 22 23 22 26 23 28 26 7 6 5 55 53 54 51 55 54 54 1 19 20 21 21 20 16 18 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Worse now than 1 year ago Same as 1 year ago Better now than 1 year ago In the September 2011 quarter, there was a marked increase in confidence in Victoria compared to last quarter, with an increase in residents who said transport in their local area is better than one year ago (24%, up from only 12% last quarter) and a decrease in residents who said transport is worse than one year ago (21%, down from 34% last quarter). NSW had its lowest proportion of residents who said transport is better than one year ago (15%) since the survey started. 10 Transport in local area compared to 1 year ago by state, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 9 8 2424 21 29 2624 28 21 21 21 21 252832 242229 28 25 28 34 17 25 14 21 25 30 19 10 13 17 17 141726 7 6 5 5655 55 51 5458 56 50 51 4946 55 51 52 61 49 4647 54 50 614960 59 60 66 51 52 57 45 6656 6360 61 Worse now than 1 year ago Same as 1 year ago Better now than 1 year ago 1 1617 20 1718 16 15 202119 2221 24 2122 2828 23 12 16 18 17 2423 20 24 22 16 20 26 16 2222 24 14 ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 4 of 12
Do you think that in 1 year s time, the state of transport in general in your local area will be better than it is now, the same, or worse than it is now? In the September 2011 quarter, of Australians said transport in their local area will be better in one year s time, while 22% said transport will be worse, a slight improvement in confidence since last quarter. 10 Transport in local area in 1 year (Australia), Mar 2010-Sept 2011 9 8 23 24 23 25 19 24 22 7 6 5 52 53 53 49 55 52 54 1 20 21 19 21 21 19 20 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Worse in 1 year than now Same as now Better in 1 year than now In the September 2011 quarter, there was an improvement in confidence in Victoria, with a marked decrease in Victorian residents who said transport in their local area will be worse in one year (, down from last quarter). Queensland had its lowest proportion of residents () since the survey started who said transport will be better, and the highest proportion who said transport will be the same. Transport in local area in 1 year by state, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 27 31 23 28 2121 24 2223 23 20 26 23 20 14 23 2325 15 1418 1223 23 19 30 2828 5352 55 52 5757 54 45 52564855 53 48 15 11 16 2622 2523 49 49 423845 4953 55 51 5655 684762 60 6169 51 57 59 61 29 2317 141516161616 18 21 23 23 27262930 24 1818 20 23 28 28 2322 23 17 17 21 24 13 1718 11 Worse in 1 year than now Same as now Better in 1 year than now ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 5 of 12
What were you thinking of most when answering that question [about transport in your local area in 1 year s time]? In the September 2011 quarter, the of Australians who said transport in their local area will be better in one year were thinking about public transport (54%, up from 49% last quarter) more than roads (28%, up from 27% last quarter). Other includes 6% who were thinking of the government role in integration, planning and coordination. Transport in local area - reason for being better in 1 year, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 12 17 17 19 16 19 3 4 6 5 5 4 28 29 27 31 27 34 55 49 49 47 49 42 16 3 28 54 Other Population Roads Public transport 1 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Note: Responses were grouped into the above categories. Other includes responses about transport in general, responses about both public transport and roads, and issues not included in other categories. In the September 2011 quarter, the 22% of Australians who said transport in their local area will be worse in one year were thinking about roads (33%, down from 38% last quarter) and populationrelated changes (27%, down from 31% last quarter). Other includes 6% thinking of the government role in integration, planning and coordination. Transport in local area - reason for being worse in 1 year, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 10 16 15 17 17 11 18 8 7 6 5 1 34 28 29 38 29 16 33 30 22 40 28 15 33 29 31 27 38 33 20 21 23 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Other Population Roads Public transport Note: Responses were grouped into the above categories. Other includes responses about transport in general, responses about both public transport and roads, and issues not included in other categories. ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 6 of 12
4. Confidence about transport improving in Australia Do you think that in 1 year s time, the state of transport in general in Australia will be better than it is now, the same as now, or worse than it is now? In the September 2011 quarter, over a quarter of Australians said transport in Australia will be better in one year s time (26%) and over a quarter said transport will get worse (26%), similar to results last quarter. 10 Transport in Australia in 1 year, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 9 8 7 6 5 1 27 27 26 25 23 26 26 40 42 39 39 45 39 42 25 26 26 27 23 26 26 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Worse in 1 year than now Same as now Better in 1 year than now In the September 2011 quarter, NSW remained the least confident of the states that transport in Australia will be better in one year. Transport in Australia in 1 year by state, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 34 3326 28 252429 2724 282523 29 24 38 41 3841 40 44 43 37 32 44 3838 424548 46 41 3446 33 41 17 2324 22222119 2626 23 33 22 2728 293433 23 28 3032 27 25 8 18 22 2526 21 29 13 20 20 20 2527 21 24 23 18 26 29 44 35 31 51 38 414037 38 40 41 51 3147 39 42 44 32 2827 292931 29 24 2319 20 Worse in 1 year than now Same as now Better in 1 year than now ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 7 of 12
Do you think that in 5 years time, the state of transport in general in Australia will be better than it is now, the same as now, or worse than it is now? In the September 2011 quarter, Australians remained more confident that transport will be better in five years than in one year, with almost half (48%) thinking transport in Australia will be better in five years. 10 9 Transport in Australia in 5 years, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 8 7 6 5 1 27 28 28 26 24 25 26 15 17 14 15 16 15 17 46 45 47 48 48 47 48 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 Worse in 5 years than now Same as now Better in 5 years than now In the September 2011 quarter, Western Australia returned to previous levels of confidence about transport in Australia in five years after a marked decline in confidence last quarter. Victoria also had an increase in confidence about transport in Australia. Transport in Australia in 5 years by state, Mar 2010-Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 29 3329 30 272429 27 24 26272321 27 17 14 14 14 16 19 17 39 4247 44454646 29 24 16 23 2928 2423 28 19 19 20 27 22 2021 3231 24 33 26 14 1817 161713 16 18 20 1724 5 17 11 1423 17 16 1212 1313 17 13 16 13 1714 52 4645 484749 52 43 5049 44 484747 52 49 59 56575247 53 44 46 5150 38 47 Worse in 5 years than now Same as now Better in 5 years than now ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 8 of 12
5. Change in confidence over time TOPS Index Responses from the first Transport Opinion Survey about transport getting better or worse were used to set an index of 100 for quarter 1, March 2010. Each quarter, changes in community confidence about transport in the local area, transport in Australia in one year s time and transport in Australia in five years time are reported as changes in the TOPS Index. A TOPS Index value of more than 100 means that Australians confidence about transport getting better is stronger than in March 2010, while a TOPS Index value less than 100 means that such confidence is weaker than in March 2010. The TOPS Index shows that in the September 2011 quarter compared to the previous quarter: Australians became more confident about transport in their local area in one year s time Australians were unchanged in confidence about transport in Australia in one year s time Australians were unchanged in confidence about transport in Australia in five years time. Compared to the launch of TOPS in March 2010, Australians are slightly more confident about transport in their local area, slightly more confident about transport in Australia in one year, and slightly more confident about transport in Australia in five years, as all three indices are just above 100. ITLS-Interfleet TOPS Index of Transport Confidence 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2010- Q1 2010- Q2 Transport in local area in 1 year 100 100 97 97 112 96 103 Transport in Australia in 1 year 100 102 104 108 103 103 103 Transport in Australia in 5 years 100 97 99 102 105 103 102 2010- Q3 2010- Q4 2011- Q1 2011- Q2 2011- Q3 ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 9 of 12
6. Fuel and the carbon tax In the September 2011 quarter, two new questions were asked about including fuel in the federal government s proposed carbon tax. The government released details of its scheme on 11 July 2011, about a month before the survey. Now considering the carbon price, the federal government has announced that fuel for household vehicles WILL NOT be included in the carbon price. Do you think fuel for household vehicles should be excluded or included in the carbon tax? On the other hand, fuel for buses WILL BE included in the carbon price from 2014 which may increase the cost of public transport. Do you think fuel for buses should be excluded or included? A similar proportion of Australians, just under two-thirds of Australians, said that fuel for household vehicles (62%) and that fuel for buses (63%) should not be included in the carbon tax. For fuel for household vehicles, responses were in support of government policy. However, most people disagreed with government policy to include buses in the carbon tax from 2014 which may increase the cost of public transport. About a quarter of Australians (24%) said that fuel for buses should be included in the carbon tax. One in five respondents () made a distinction between fuel for household vehicles and fuel for buses in the carbon tax. In terms of consistency of answers to the two questions about fuel for vehicles and fuel for buses: 49% of respondents said exclude fuel for both household vehicles and buses from the carbon tax 13% of respondents said include fuel for both household vehicles and buses 11% of respondents said include fuel for household vehicles, but exclude buses 1 of respondents said exclude household vehicles and include buses 17% of respondents were unable to answer (with 9% don t know and 8% strongly opposed to the carbon price). Views on fuel in carbon tax (Australia), Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 6 5 25 24 62 63 Fuel for household vehicles Fuel for buses [Opposed to carbon tax] Don t know Include in carbon tax Exclude from carbon tax Note: The questions asked whether fuel should be excluded or included in the carbon tax. Interviewers coded responses as opposed to the carbon tax if the respondent s strong views prevented a response of excluded or included or as don t know if respondents were unable to answer. ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 10 of 12
There was some variation in views on including fuel for buses in the carbon tax by state and by location, but little variation by public transport use. Frequent public users had the same view as infrequent public transport users. Responses suggest that Australians are still developing an understanding of the carbon tax, its complexities and its implications. Views on fuel for buses in carbon tax (Australia), Sept 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 3 4 4 10 4 1 5 5 6 4 4 6 6 5 19 23 28 19 27 30 29 37 21 25 18 26 24 32 64 60 65 70 64 64 58 64 63 71 61 63 49 52 [Opposed to carbon tax] Don t know Include in carbon tax Exclude from carbon tax Note: The questions asked whether fuel should be excluded or included in the carbon tax. Interviewers coded responses as opposed to the carbon tax if the respondent s strong views prevented a response of excluded or included or as don t know if respondents were unable to answer. ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 11 of 12
Timing of TOPS The fieldwork for each quarter was conducted on the following dates: March 2010: 13-28 February 2010 June 2010: 15-30 May 2010 September 2010: 23 August-5 September 2010 December 2010: 5-17 November 2010 March 2011: 9-27 February 2011 June 2011: 13-30 May 2011 September 2011: 11-25 August 2011. More information Visit the TOPS website for quarterly reports, media coverage and to register to receive TOPS updates by email each quarter. http://sydney.edu.au/business/itls/tops The Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies in The University of Sydney Business School provides education and conducts research in transport, logistics and supply chain management. Web http://sydney.edu.au/business/itls Email business.itlsinfo@sydney.edu.au Interfleet Technology is one of the world s leading rail consultancy groups providing strategic, operational, management and technical services to the international rail industry. Web http://www.interfleet.com.au ITLS-Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey Quarter 3, September 2011 page 12 of 12