MARKET OUTLOOK ROCHEDALE With easy access to the major arterial roads and public transport links, Rochedale s connectivity has positioned it as a major growth precinct for the future. 02 Walkability & Accessibility 04 Infrastructure & Employment 05 Population & Demographics 06 Residential Analysis 07 Rental Analysis Prepared exclusively for Azure Development Group July 2017 Top: Westfield Garden City; Bottom left: Rochedale Markets; Bottom right: Eight Mile Plains Bus Station
WALKABILITY & ACCESSIBILITY Rochedale is ideally located with the Brisbane CBD and Brisbane Airport only a 20-minute drive north and the Gold Coast a 45-minute drive south. 25 26 Brisbane CBD It has benefited significantly from the addition of recent infrastructure investment including the South East Busway Rochedale to Springwood extension in 2014 and the Eight Mile Plains Park n Ride, which act as drivers for both population and employment in the precinct. Additional transport infrastructure includes major arterial roads such as the Gateway and Logan Motorways, providing high connectivity in all directions. St Lucia 28 24 13 27 15 14 Coorparoo Rochedale is surrounded by a diverse range of employment opportunities. These include the Brisbane Technology Park and major health precincts such as the QEII Jubilee Hospital and Logan Hospital. Local retail offerings include Westfield Garden City which is one of the largest shopping centre s in Queensland. Furthermore, Rochedale is in proximity to both public and private education facilities including Rochedale State Primary School, Rochedale State High School, St Peters Catholic Primary School, Mansfield State High School and Redeemer Lutheran College. The Griffith University Nathan and Mount Gravatt Campuses also offer tertiary facilities. Salisbury 31 17 16 29 11 03 12 Sunnybank Hills Mount Gravatt 32 05 01 Eight Mile Plains Proximity to local industrial and employment nodes, accessibility to key transport infrastructure and easy access to crucial retail and leisure amenities are key drivers in Rochedale s future growth. 04 Calamvale 2 Market Outlook Rochedale
With high transport connectivity, Rochedale offers a family oriented lifestyle supported by education, retail and health infrastructure within easy access. Manly West Train Line ENTERTAINMENT, SHOPPING & DINING 01 Westfield Garden City 02 Westfield Carindale 03 Sunnybank Plaza 04 Sunnybank Hills Shoppingtown 05 Macgregor Home 06 Future Rochedale Town Centre 02 07 Rochedale Markets Carindale INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT 08 Eight Mile Plains Bus Station 09 Brisbane Technology Park 10 Rochedale Motorway Estate 11 QEII Jubilee Hospital 12 Sunnybank Private Hospital 19 23 Mackenzie 10 13 Brisbane Mater Hospital 14 Greenslopes Private Hospital 15 Princess Alexandra Hospital EDUCATION 16 Griffith University Nathan Campus Burbank 17 Griffith University Mt Gravatt Campus 18 Rochedale State School 09 08 06 22 20 18 07 19 Mansfield State School 20 Redeemer Lutheran College 21 St. Peters Catholic Primary School 22 Rochedale State High School 21 Rochedale South 30 23 Mansfield State High School 24 Brisbane State High School 25 Brisbane Grammar School 26 Brisbane Girls Grammar School 27 Queensland University of Technology 28 University of Queensland Springwood 33 RECREATION & GREENSPACE 29 Queensland Sports and Athletics Centre (QSAC) 30 Underwood Park 31 Tooheys Forest 32 Mount Gravatt Outlook Reserve 33 Daisy Hill Conservation Park Prepared exclusively for Azure Development Group 3
INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT Recent transport infrastructure investment has linked Rochedale to Brisbane s key employment nodes. INFRASTRUCTURE Infrastructure investment in Rocheland (Brisbane s Southern Growth Corridor) over recent years has been a key driver in the growth of commercial infrastructure and private investment for the area. The accessibility and proximity of Rochedale to the Brisbane CBD, its vicinity to major transport and logistics routes, and the presence of some of Queensland s major industrial precincts suggest that sustained infrastructure investment in the area is both likely and necessary for future growth. ROCHEDALE TOWN CENTRE Approved $50 million Located on the corner of Gardner Road and Miles Platting Road, the Rochedale Town Centre is planned to have a gross floor area of 9,722 square metres including two supermarkets, cinemas, major retail, dining and entertainment facilities. Construction is expected to start in late 2017. The town centre will provide the cornerstone for future commercial, retail and higher density development and is set to be a major driver for the surrounding residential market. GARDNER ROAD MIXED DEVELOPMENT Development Application A proposal has been submitted for an integrated neighbourhood centre located at the corner of Gardner Road and Lorisch Way. The development will include retail, an outdoor dining area and health care services. The site is well-placed to serve the convenience needs of the surrounding community. ROCHEDALE MOTORWAY ESTATE $100 million Rochedale Motorway Estate is a 75-hectare industrial precinct on the Gateway Motorway, providing unrivalled access to the Port of Brisbane and the Logan and Pacific Motorways. Stage one of the development has recently been completed, comprising 26-hectares of warehouse and office facilities. Current tenants include Beaumont Tiles, Super Amart, JFC and Franklyn. BRISBANE TECHNOLOGY PARK Brisbane Technology Park is the largest and most prestigious business park in Queensland. The location is home to over 190 leading local and national companies employing 10,000 people with a further 45,000 square metres in prime office space to be delivered in the next ten years. The 90-room Quest Hotel will be ready for occupancy in July 2017. Located in Eight Mile Plains, Brisbane Technology Park is just five kilometres from Rochedale. EMPLOYMENT With a diversified mix of industries, Rochedale has experienced steady employment growth and positioned itself as a major employment node for the future. The top industries for the Rochedale Catchment (comprising the suburbs of suburbs of Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart) include Health Care and Social Assistance (16.1%), Personal Services (10.0%) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (9.6%). Australia TradeCoast 60,000 Jobs 2016 110,000 Jobs 2036 Forecast Brisbane CBD 148,399 Jobs 2016 209,242 Jobs 2036 Forecast Rochedale Catchment* 13,403 Jobs 2016 24,194 Jobs 2036 Forecast 50,000 NEW JOBS 2016 2036 60,843 NEW JOBS 2016 2036 10,791 NEW JOBS 2016 2036 ROCHEDALE HAS BEEN POSITIONED AS A MAJOR GROWTH PRECINCT FOR FUTURE EMPLOYMENT TOTAL 221,802 Jobs 2016 343,436 Jobs 2036 Forecast 121,634 NEW JOBS 2016 2036 Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis *Rochedale Catchment includes Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart 4 Market Outlook Rochedale
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS DEMOGRAPHICS The suburb of Rochedale is made up of 86 per cent family households, compared to 69 per cent of the Brisbane LGA benchmark. The median weekly household income of residents in Rochedale is $2,158, which demonstrates a 24 per cent premium over the Brisbane LGA median of $1,746. This indicates Rochedale is represented by a large proportion of high income families. Rochedale registers the majority of its dwellings as separate houses, equating to 94 per cent of the total proportion of dwellings. Townhouse and semi-detached dwelling stock across the suburb makes up a very small proportion of the dwellings at 0.3 per cent, much less than 10 per cent for the Brisbane LGA. WHO LIVES IN THE SUBURB OF ROCHEDALE? Rochedale Brisbane LGA Median Weekly Household Income $2,158 $1,746 Family Households 86% 69% Owner-Occupiers 80% 60% Separate Houses 94% 67% Townhouse Dwellings 0.3% 10% Prepared by Urbis, Source: ABS Census 2016 POPULATION GROWTH Population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) identified that the population within the Rochedale Catchment increased by 4,970 persons between 2006 and 2016, equating to approximately 497 additional persons per annum. Based on Queensland Government Statistician s Office (QGSO) 2015 projections, population growth within the precinct is predicted to increase annually by 1.7 per cent, or an average of approximately 627 new residents per annum between 2016 and 2036. By 2036, the Rochedale Catchment population is expected to contain over 12,500 new residents. Surrounding transport infrastructure, Rochedale s accessible location and proximity to large employment nodes, is expected to contribute to sustained long-term population growth within the catchment. ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT POPULATION PROJECTIONS Resident projected population 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 27,301 32,271 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Period (annual) 2026 2028 2030 44,801 2032 2034 2036 Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS, Queensland Government Population Projections, 2015 POPULATION GROWTH WITHIN ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT IS SET TO INCREASE ANNUALLY BY 1.7 PER CENT BETWEEN 2016 AND 2036 Prepared exclusively for Azure Development Group 5
RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS Based on 66 transactions, the median sale price for houses within the Rochedale Catchment (comprising the suburbs of Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart) registered $765,000 for the quarter ending March 2017. The median house sale price recorded for the March quarter 2016, just 12 months prior, was $715,000. This demonstrates a significant price increase of 7.0 per cent, compared to an increase of 4.6 per cent for the Brisbane LGA benchmark. Furthermore, the suburb of Rochedale recorded a median house price of $1,130,000 for the March quarter 2017 which is an increase of 3.3 per cent from the previous year. Houses in the Rochedale Catchment have demonstrated strong long-term price growth, increasing by 6.2 per cent per annum over the 10 years ending March 2017. Compared to the median house price for the Brisbane LGA of $650,000, the Rochedale Catchment achieves a price premium of 18 per cent while the suburb of Rochedale achieves a substantial 74 per cent premium. This premium demonstrates the value placed on the location and local offerings of Rochedale and the significant demand for new product. According to 2016 Census data, the suburb of Rochedale is made up of 94 per cent traditional houses and 0.3 per cent townhouses. This highlights a significant opportunity for townhouse developments as demand increases and they continue to offer an affordable alternative to the million-dollar house prices within Rochedale. The relative affordability of townhouses compared to houses, coupled with the lifestyle offerings of Rochedale are expected to support future market interest. ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT HOUSE SALES CYCLE March 1997 March 2017 Number of Transactions number of sales 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 median sale price Prepared by Urbis, Source: APM PriceFinder $765,000 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Period (Quarterly) ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT VS BRISBANE LGA MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE GROWTH March 2017 1-YEAR AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH Brisbane LGA Rochedale Catchment 10-YEAR AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH Brisbane LGA Rochedale Catchment 4.6% $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 5.3% 6.2% Prepared by Urbis, Source: APM PriceFinder *Rochedale Catchment includes Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart Median Sale Price 7.0% ROCHEDALE VS BRISBANE LGA MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE PREMIUM March 2017 ROCHDALE SUBURB $1,130,000 74% PREMIUM OVER BRISBANE LGA THE ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE RECORDED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF 7.0 PER CENT OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS ROCHDALE CATCHMENT BRISBANE LGA $765,500 $650,000 18% PREMIUM OVER BRISBANE LGA Prepared by Urbis, Source: APM PriceFinder *Rochedale Catchment includes Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart 6 Market Outlook Rochedale
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS The Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA) provides median weekly rental data on typical rents for recently rented dwellings based on bond lodgements, incorporating both established and new product. Based on RTA data, three-bedroom houses in the Rochedale Catchment have recorded 5.2 per cent rental price growth per annum over the past 12 months and 2.1 per cent of the past five years to March 2017. This growth is higher than the Brisbane LGA benchmark which recorded 1.1 per cent and 1.9 percent for 12 months and five years respectively. With a focus on semi-detached and townhouse product in the Rochedale Catchment, three-bedroom townhouses have recorded a 44 per cent increase in rental prices over the past 12 months to March 2017. This is likely attributed to the introduction of new townhouse product into the catchment over this period. On-the-market rental data, which records rents for new and near-new product, indicated new and near-new three-bedroom townhouses had a median weekly rent of $495. Although the sample size for four-bedroom townhouses is too small for the Residential Tenancies Authority to report on, representing only 0.4 per cent of all townhouse rentals, on-the-market rental analysis revealed new and near-new four-bedroom townhouses in the Rochedale Catchment are achieving median weekly rents of $630 per week. Additional analysis of the Rochedale Catchment revealed three-bedroom townhouses are achieving a premium of 13 per cent over the Brisbane LGA benchmark. This illustrates a growing demand for new product within Rochedale as the southern corridor expands and develops. Given the ongoing greenfield development of the region, rising house prices and the increasing appeal of semi-detached dwellings within the Rochedale Catchment, the demand for rental product is expected to continue moving forward. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT Rochedale Catchment vs Brisbane LGA March 2017 Established Three-bedroom Townhouse Brisbane LGA 13% PREMIUM $420 $475 Established Three-bedroom Townhouse Rochedale Catchment Prepared by Urbis; Source: Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA), Rochedale Catchment includes postcode 4123 Rochedale and Priests Gully MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTAL PRICE GROWTH THREE-BEDROOM TOWNHOUSES Rochedale Catchment vs Brisbane LGA March 2017 1-YEAR AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE Three-bedroom Townhouse 44% Rochedale Catchment Prepared by Urbis; Source: Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA), Rochedale Catchment includes postcode 4123 Rochedale and Priests Gully NEW AND NEAR-NEW TOWNHOUSES MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT Rochedale Catchment March 2017 $495-1.2% Brisbane LGA $630 THREE-BEDROOM TOWNHOUSES WITHIN THE ROCHEDALE CATCHMENT HAVE EXPERIENCED A 44 PER CENT INCREASE IN RENT OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS Three-bedroom Townhouse 34% OF TOTAL RENTALS Four-bedroom Townhouse 0.4% OF TOTAL RENTALS Prepared by Urbis; Source: Primary Research, Realestate.com.au, Census 2016 Rochedale Catchment includes Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Wishart Prepared exclusively for Azure Development Group 7
BRISBANE GOLD COAST MELBOURNE PERTH SYDNEY CISTRI SINGAPORE cistri.com This publication is prepared on the instruction of Azure Development Group and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Azure Development Group and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. PER0306/B