July Report 2018
Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 06 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 08 Currency Trends 10 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 12 France 13 United Kingdom 14 Italy 15 Spain 16 Germany 17 Austria 18 Finland 19 International Holiday Calendar 20 Planet Intelligence 2
Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - July 2018 +1% Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France +6% +1% +6% +2% -8% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -8% +2% -13% -11% -0% -18% +3% +2% +6% +6% +4% +3% Germany +8% -1% +9% -1% +9% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +9% Vouchers/ Transaction -7% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +16% Arrival Numbers -1% +12% +2% +9% +10% +3% Total Arrivals Hong Kong Russia Taiwan -5% -24% +20% -0% -19% -6% -5% -6% +28% +10% -11% -2% Planet Intelligence 3
Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD -3% Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France -1% -6% +5% +6% -8% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -15% +7% -9% -13% +6% -16% -2% +1% +8% +3% +7% +4% Germany -6% -7% +1% -0% +6% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +4% Vouchers/ Transaction -7% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +12% Arrival Numbers +3% +3% -0% +3% +4% +4% Total Arrivals Russia Hong Kong Taiwan -17% -8% +3% -14% -13% -6% -3% +5% +9% -6% +4% +2% Planet Intelligence 4
Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends July 2018 Overview Tax Free shopping sales saw narrow growth in July, with a sales increase of 1% recorded compared with the same month last year. This modest growth was likely due to a levelling out of sales volumes after a bumper summer in 2017, rather than due to any structural or longer-term pressures. In addition, the single digit gains seen from August through to December last year would suggest that we can remain cautiously optimistic about growth prospects for the remainder of 2018. Y/Y Sales Growth 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2017 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Trade wars, currency, and import duties all likely to impact the remainder of 2018 Authorities in China have reported that Chinese tourists are currently reluctant to travel to the United States due to escalating trade tensions and security concerns. According to data from local trip-planning site Mafengwo, searches to major American travel destinations were down in the first six months of the year. Mafengwo also reported a spike in travel among Chinese tourists to Russia and other European countries, suggesting that these destinations could be enjoying a windfall at the expense of the United States. Recent currency volatility has seen the US dollar strengthen to levels not seen in over a year, providing a boost to purchasing power among US tourists. Sales to US visitors continued to enjoy double-digit gains in July with growth of 12%, following a huge year-on-year rise of 17% in June. The continued strength of the greenback will also boost the purchasing power of nations whose currencies are pegged to it, such as the Gulf States. This boost in US consumer confidence is reflected in the projected 9.5% increase in American tourist arrivals for the period from August through to October. Conversely, alleged currency manipulation by Chinese authorities a response to Trump s trade tariffs has resulted in a weaker yuan, which may put pressure on spending among Chinese tourists in the near future. Finally, the recent reduction in duties on Chinese imports, which led to a number of brands reducing prices in China, may prompt consumers to purchase goods at home rather than abroad. However, the broader selection of brands and heritage value of overseas shopping destinations may diminish the impact of this.
Sales Performance - July 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA +6.5% CHN +8.6% GBR -8.2% +12.0% ITA +2.1% HKG -5.4% ESP -13.2% RUS -24.4% DEU +7.6% TWN +20.4% AUT +28.5% KOR -3.7% IRL -2.5% IND -2.6% CZE -6.6% THA -0.4% GRC +27.0% AUS +11.2% PRT -10.8% JPN +19.1% Planet Intelligence 6
Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA -0.5% CHN +4.1% GBR -14.8% +3.0% ITA +6.6% RUS -16.7% ESP -8.7% HKG -8.3% DEU -6.5% TWN +2.5% AUT +14.5% KOR -8.7% IRL -4.9% THA -0.3% CZE -7.7% UAE -15.4% PRT -7.5% KWT -15.7% CHE +19.0% MYS +1.0% Planet Intelligence 7
Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country July 2018 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 36% 1,701 +17% 11% 1,259 +22% HONG KONG 7% 3,944-17% TAIWAN 5% 2,051 +56% SOUTH KOREA 5% 701-2% AUT CHINA 39% 634 +65% TAIWAN 8% 665 +19% SWITZERLAND 7% 410-2% RUSSIA 5% 388-22% 4% 561 +17% GBR CHINA 30% 398-5% 8% 338-6% INDIA 6% 273-5% HONG KONG 6% 382 +10% THAILAND 4% 545 +25% IRL 40% 121 +8% CHINA 34% 407-6% CANADA 3% 94 +9% AUSTRALIA 3% 132-15% HONG KONG 2% 430 +130% ITA CHINA 28% 1,078 +12% 18% 1,051 +14% RUSSIA 8% 671-13% TAIWAN 4% 1,310-7% AUSTRALIA 3% 797 +13% CZE CHINA 28% 321 +13% TAIWAN 19% 229 +19% RUSSIA 12% 345-45% 9% 563 +35% SOUTH KOREA 4% 177-49% ESP CHINA 27% 659-11% 10% 562-3% RUSSIA 8% 306-24% ARGENTINA 4% 247-43% MEXICO 4% 384-11% GRC CHINA 32% 486 +55% 11% 651 +65% RUSSIA 10% 348-28% MACEDONIA 4% 178-3% ISRAEL 4% 215 +89% DEU CHINA 36% 655 +1% RUSSIA 6% 479-14% TAIWAN 5% 403 +13% 4% 634 +19% UAE 4% 785-4% PRT CHINA 42% 2,698 +33% BRAZIL 15% 374-43% ANGOLA 14% 430-16% 3% 481-34% RUSSIA 2% 323-40% Planet Intelligence 8
Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 34% 1,788 +9% 9% 1,323 +11% HONG KONG 8% 4,502-11% SOUTH KOREA 5% 753-16% TAIWAN 5% 1,997 +8% AUT CHINA 28% 623 +39% RUSSIA 12% 426-9% SWITZERLAND 9% 424-9% TAIWAN 7% 668 +20% THAILAND 5% 720 +64% GBR CHINA 25% 427-14% 7% 381-18% KUWAIT 5% 351-20% UAE 5% 582-16% HONG KONG 5% 412-10% IRL CHINA 38% 416-13% 34% 114 +9% CANADA 4% 102 +16% AUSTRALIA 3% 144-11% MALAYSIA 2% 335 +16% ITA CHINA 29% 1,134 +12% 11% 1,048 +20% RUSSIA 10% 782-8% TAIWAN 5% 1,247-3% SOUTH KOREA 4% 796 +44% CZE RUSSIA 26% 367-28% CHINA 21% 352 +11% TAIWAN 17% 232 +11% SOUTH KOREA 6% 198-18% 5% 503 +11% ESP CHINA 31% 736-1% 8% 599-10% RUSSIA 6% 395-20% ARGENTINA 5% 243-24% SOUTH KOREA 4% 393-6% PRT CHINA 36% 2,065 +10% BRAZIL 19% 354-20% ANGOLA 15% 378-29% RUSSIA 3% 321-17% HONG KONG 3% 5,207 +21% DEU CHINA 34% 621-9% RUSSIA 11% 532-10% THAILAND 5% 942-6% TAIWAN 5% 449-3% SWITZERLAND 4% 348-4% CHE CHINA 24% 1,333 +42% RUSSIA 8% 1,387-15% UAE 6% 2,094 +20% 6% 1,389 +37% THAILAND 5% 1,157 +15% Planet Intelligence 9
Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP 1.26 9.8 1.45 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 Planet Intelligence 10
Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow s travellers Planet Intelligence 11
Europe Overview TOTAL +11.3% GBR +9.4% FIN +14.8% Destination Market Insights +2.2% +4.3% -4.9% Arrivals of non-eu visitors is expected to grow by 2.2% during the three-month period from August to October this year the lowest figure this calendar year. However, this too is likely a result of rebalancing after a year of significant arrivals growth in 2017, which saw double-digit increases throughout the summer. DEU +7.0% Of the major destination markets, all destinations are projected to experience single-digit gains, with the exception of Finland and Spain. +1.2% Source Market Insights A 4% increase in Chinese tourist arrivals is expected between August and October, when the annual Chinese Golden Week holiday will fall. European merchants should be aware that the Mid-Autumn festival occurs one week earlier this year compared with 2017, beginning on the 24th September. Similarly, the shift in timing of the Islamic Eid al-adha holiday, from 31st August in 2017 to 21st August in 2018 will likely result in increased arrivals compared with last year, with the celebration falling closer to the height of summer and prime holiday season. However, arrivals from the main Gulf Co-operation Council nations are predicted to decline by 8% during the period from August to October, as the economic challenges and austerity measures in these nations continue to impact tourism and consumer spending power. ESP +16.7% -3.4% FRA +14.9% +3.1% AUT ITA +4.8% +6.4% +9.9% +4.1% Planet Intelligence 12
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - France RUS +28.0% -3.8% CHN +4.7% +3.0% HNG +6.3% +12.6% KOR +23.6% +9.8% +11.9% -13.0% BRA +28.8% JPN +17.1% -1.8% +33.7% KUW +26.9% TWN +11.2% -10.2% +15.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +10.4% -10.3% +4.0% +23.6% -0.1% +7.4% -3.8% +19.9% +3.0% -0.1% +21.8% +15.0% Planet Intelligence 13
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - UK RUS +15.2% -10.0% CHN +10.6% +6.6% HNG +0.5% +5.1% KOR +14.0% +14.1% +9.1% -1.8% BRA +16.6% JPN -4.2% +4.5% +17.0% KUW +13.3% TWN +11.6% -10.1% +8.5% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +5.0% -13.8% +0.4% +8.2% -4.2% AUS +17.0% -2.1% +2.9% +3.6% +3.3% +6.2% +9.2% Planet Intelligence 14
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Italy RUS +16.5% -15.0% CHN +6.2% +3.7% HNG +2.3% +3.3% KOR +16.8% +14.1% +14.5% -12.3% BRA +9.7% JPN -5.1% +2.8% +10.1% KUW +7.7% TWN +20.3% -9.1% -6.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +3.7% -20.4% -5.6% +11.2% +0.8% AUS +21.6% -18.4% +5.5% -8.7% -2.8% +3.0% +14.6% Planet Intelligence 15
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Spain RUS +20.4% -7.0% CHN +19.1% -3.7% HNG +28.3% +1.6% KOR +21.5% +9.3% +0.9% +1.6% BRA +7.8% JPN +4.4% -5.9% +1.9% KUW -9.5% TWN -7.9% -21.3% +4.1% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +2.4% -17.5% +11.1% +9.8% +33.6% AUS +21.2% -18.1% +7.2% -17.2% +10.3% -15.1% +3.7% Planet Intelligence 16
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Germany RUS +11.3% -9.4% CHN +1.4% +3.8% HNG -1.7% +5.6% KOR +8.3% +15.5% +8.0% -4.5% BRA +3.0% JPN +7.7% +4.2% +11.5% KUW +10.8% TWN +2.9% -16.9% +1.7% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +13.5% -25.0% +23.5% +9.9% +10.5% AUS +12.5% -18.0% +15.2% -20.0% -4.1% -0.3% +9.2% Planet Intelligence 17
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Austria RUS +12.4% -13.4% CHN +17.5% +21.6% HNG +38.2% +25.2% KOR +4.8% +24.8% +6.5% +6.4% BRA JPN +1.8% +0.1% +4.5% +9.7% KUW -1.5% TWN +35.6% -13.6% +38.1% SAU QAT UAE IND THA -17.6% -38.3% -10.6% +18.2% +24.1% AUS +2.5% -14.7% +19.4% -2.4% +24.7% +39.9% +25.4% Planet Intelligence 18
3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Finland RUS +21.2% -2.6% CHN +18.5% -6.9% HNG +12.7% +1.6% KOR +15.6% +27.1% +3.6% -12.9% BRA JPN +33.1% +8.2% -4.7% -10.0% KUW TWN +1.6% +18.8% +4.7% +12.3% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +12.8% +86.6% +12.3% +21.9% +39.0% AUS +31.6% -33.3% +6.4% -14.3% -1.3% -28.0% +15.8% Planet Intelligence 19
International Holiday Calendar 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CHN 1-2 New Year s Holiday 16-21 Spring Festival - 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day Chinese New Year 2-7 Golden Week Holiday RUS 1 New Year s Day 7 Orthodox Xmas Day 23 Defence of the Fatherland Day 8 Women s Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday IND 36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 29 Mahavir Jayanti 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-adha 30 Good Friday 3 Janmashtami 21 Muharram / Ashura 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day 21 Milad un-nabi 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti BRA 1 New Year s Day 10-14 Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 31 Corpus Christi 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida Day / Childeren s Day 28 Public Service Holiday 2 All Soul s Day 15 Republic Proclamation Day 24 Christmas Eve 25 Christmas Day 31 New Years Eve MID EAST 1 New Year s Day 6 Army Day (Iraq) 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 25 Kuwaiti National Day 26 Liberation Day (Kuwait) 20 Oil Nationalisation Day (Iran) 21-24 Perian New Year (Iran) 30 Birthday of Imam Ali (Iran) 1 Islamic Republic Day (Iran) 2 Nature Day (Iran) 11-17 Pesach I (First day of Passover - Israel) 13 Prophet s Ascension (UAE/Iran) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) 1 Labour Day / May Day (Iraq / Bahrain) 2 Israel Independence Day) 31 Pentecost (Israel) 4 Anniversary of Khomeni s Death (Iran) 15-17 Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) 24-29 Eid-al-Fitr (Oman) 26-28 Eid-al-Fitr (Kuwait) 23 Renaissance Day (Oman) 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) 22-26 Eid-al-Adha 1 Waqfat Arafat Day (Kuwait) 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait / Saudi Arabia) 12 Islamic New Year (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 19 Tassoua (Iran) 21-22 Rosh Hashana (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel) 3 Iraqi Independence Day 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 12 Simchat Torah (Israel) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 21 Mouloud - Prophet s Birthday (UAE). 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday (Iran) 30 Commemoration Day (UAE) 1 Prophet s Birthday (Kuwait) 2 National Day (UAE) 16-17 National Day (Bahrain) HKG 1 New Year s Day 16-19 Spring Festival - 30 Good Friday Chinese New Year 31 Holy Saturday 2 Easter Monday 5 Tomb Sweeping 1 Labour Day 22 Buddha s Birthday 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day 25 Day after 1 PRC National Day Holiday Mid-Autumn Festival 17 Chung Yeung Festival 25 Christmas Day 26 Boxing Day IDN 1 New Year s Day 16 Spring Festival - 17 Day of Silence & Chinese New Year Hindu New Year 30 Good Friday 13 Ascension of the Prophet Mohammad 1 Labour Day 10 Ascension Day of Jesus Christ 29 Waisak Day 12-17 Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 21 Muslim Day of Sacrifice 11 Muharram - Islamic New Year 20 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day MYS 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day 15-16 Hari Raya 28 Yang di-pertuan 22 Hari Raya Haji Agong s Birthday 31 Nataional day 12 Muharram - Islamic New Year 16 Malaysia Day 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day THA 1 New Year s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day 1 Labour Day 13-17 Songkran 10 Royal Ploughing 29 Visakha Bucha Ceremony Day 27 Asalha Bucha 28 King Vajiralongkorn s Birthday 28 Buddhist Lent Day 12-13 The Queen s Birthday 12-13 Mother s Day 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father s Day 10 Constitution Day 31 New Year s Eve JAP 1 New Year s Day 8 Coming of Age Day 11-12 National Foundation Day 21 Spring Equinox 29-30 Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial Day 4 Greenery Day 5 Childeren s Day 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged Day 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Day 23-24 Emporor s Birthday 1 New Year s Day 15 Martin Luther King Jr Day 19 President s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day 11-12 Veteran s Day 25 Christmas Day 22 Thanksgiving Day Planet Intelligence 20
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