Dan Mishell Director of Research Visit California
Our mission: Create desire for the California experience
Research objectives Measure travel to and within California Business insights Program performance Knowledge base Industry platform
Tourism s economic impact 2015 $122.5B 1.06M $9.9B Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan Associates CONSUMER REVENUE JOBS STATE & LOCAL TAX REVENUE
Domestic = 93% of visits, but international =20% of spending 263.4 million person-trips 7% Domestic International $122.5 billion in spending 20% 93% 80% Source: DK Shifflet & Associates, U.S. Department of Commerce, CIC Research Inc., Dean Runyan Associates
U.S. origins grouped into CA resident, primary western, and long-haul markets Six primary western markets account for 50% of non-resident visits and 1/3 of nonresident spending Sources: DK Shifflet & Assoc.; TNS TravelsAmerica
California s global visitor appeal 2,000 $6,000 1,800 1,600 $5,000 1,400 1,200 2016 Visits (projection) 2020 Visits (forecast) $4,000 Thousands 1,000 800 600 400 200 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 0 $0 Canada China UK Australia Japan Mexico Air* Germany France S. Korea Middle East India Scandinavia Brazil Italy 2016 Spend (projection) 2020 Spend (forecast) Millions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; CIC Research Inc.; BEA; Tourism Economics
Travel spending is at an all-time high Source: Dean Runyan Associates
CA room demand is at record-level too 90% 80% 74.7% 70% 60% 59.7% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Smith Travel Research
Travel indicators are up in 2016, and outpace those for the U.S. California U.S. Lodging (Aug YTD) Occupancy +1.1% -0.2% Average daily rate +6.1% +3.1% Revenue per available room +7.3% +2.9% California airport traffic (Aug YTD) Domestic +5.8% International +10.1% Overseas arrivals (Mar YTD) +9.0% +5.1% Welcome Center traffic (Aug YTD) +1.9% Leisure & hospitality employment (Aug/Sep) +3.4% +2.4% Source: Smith Travel Research
Occupancy growth has slowed, but room rate growth is still strong for most CA regions Occupancy Aug YTD % Chg ADR Aug YTD % Chg 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 12.0% CA Central Coast Central Valley 10.0% Deserts Gold Country 8.0% High Sierra Inland Empire 6.0% LA County 4.0% North Coast Orange County 2.0% Shasta Cascade SD County 0.0% SF Bay Area Source: Smith Travel Research
Some foreign currencies are starting to recover after 2+ years of steady decline Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service Prof. Werner Antweiler
2016 growth in CA arrivals are led by Asia and Middle East 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% California International Port-of-Entry Arrivals from World Regions (March YTD 2016 Year-Over-Year Percent Change) Asia Middle East Europe Oceania Mexico* South America Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Travel & Tourism Office Form I-94 Total Overseas YTD % Change 13.3% 6.7% 6.3% 3.2% 3.1% -1.2% 9.0%
Moderate growth in visits are projected for 2016 and 2017 2016 2017 Overall visits +2.2% +2.5% Domestic +2.2% +2.5% International +2.8% +3.6% Overseas +5.1% +5.0% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce; StatsCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics
Growth in visitor spending is forecast to outpace growth in visits 2016 2017 Overall spending +3.6% +4.1% Domestic +3.5% +3.8% International +4.2% +5.1% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce; StatsCan; CIC Research, Inc.; Tourism Economics
2-3% growth in domestic travel is forecasted for CA through 2020 CA Domestic Day and Overnight Visits % growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Domestic Day (dark blue) Total Domestic (gray) -8% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA Domestic Overnight (blue)
Stays in paid accommodations are projected to grow more than non-paid stays 7% 6% 5% 5.9% Paid Non-paid ANNUAL % CHANGE 4% 3% 2% 1% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.6% 0% 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f Source: Tourism Economics, TNS Global, STR
3-5% growth in international travel is forecasted for CA through 2020 CA International Inbound Travel Annual % change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F Source: Tourism Economics US California
China, South Korea and India forecasted to lead % growth through 2020 Projected international visits by market Average annual % growth, 2015-2020 China South Korea India Middle East Australia Scandanavia Italy Germany Mexico France United Kingdom Canada Japan Brazil Source: Tourism Economics 0 3 6 9 12 15
Biggest potential for spending growth is among international travelers Expenditures and Visits Diverging Index, 2007 = 100 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Solid lines = visitors Dashed lines = expenditures Domestic International 80 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F Source: Tourism Economics
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