Snowbelt to Sunbelt The Migration of America s s Voters William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org
State Projected Growth, 2000-2030 2030 Projected Growth, 2000-2030 Growth 25% or more Source: William Frey Growth 10% to 24% Less than 10%
Projected Regional Growth, 2000-2030 2030 14 12 10 8 Snowbelt Sunbelt 6 4 2 0 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030 2030 Source: William Frey Florida 9 Texas 8 Arizona 5 California 2 Nevada 2 North Carolina 2 Georgia 1 Oregon 1 Utah 1 Virginia 1 Washington 1
Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030 2030 New York -6 Iowa -1 Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1 Ohio -4 Louisiana -1 Illinois -3 Missouri -1 Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1 Michigan -2 New Jersey -1 Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1 Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1 Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1
Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey
Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state victories) Electoral Votes Red Blue Advantage 2004 286 252 34 2012 290 248 42 2024 295 243 52 2032 303 235 68
Snowbelt and Sunbelt: Electoral College Changes Northeast and Midwest South and West
Red and Blue State Electoral Vote Changes Snowbelt and Sunbelt, 2004-2030 2030 2004 Change Snowbelt Red 66-8 Blue 159-21 Sunbelt Red 220 25 Blue 93 4
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt, and Heartland States Source: William. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States
Red and Blue Electoral Votes Three America's 2004 Change Heartland Red Blue 122 105-12 -11 New Sunbelt Red 95 12 Blue 21 2 Melting Pot Red 69 17 Blue 126-8
Demographic Components, 2000-2004 2004 (Rates per 1000) 30 25 20 15 10 27 16 20 8 Immigraton Domestic Migration 5 0-5 -10-6 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland -5
Melting Pot States: 2000-04 04 Components 40 30 33 28 25 20 10 0-10 -20-12 7 Immigraton Domestic Migration -30-40 -50-39 California New York Texas
New Sunbelt: 2000-04 04 Components 60 50 51 40 30 26 Immigraton Domestic Migration 20 10 18 20 19 15 0 Arizona Georgia North Carolina
Florida: 2000-04 04 Components 80 70 72 60 50 40 30 26 48 52 24 Immigraton Domestic Migration 20 10 0-10 Florida Miami Orlando -5
Heartland: 2000-04 04 Components 30 20 10 10 5 11 Immigraton Domestic Migration 0-10 -11-11 -20-17 Michigan Ohio Kansas
Migrant Shares from California Utah Oregon Washington Nevada Share Idaho Colorado Arizona Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 25% 2% 9% 12% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 7% 55% 14% 11% 72% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic Source: William Frey,
Hispanic Concentration Sourcc: William Frey Key Below 12.5% 12.5% - 25.0% Above 25.0%
Black Concentration Source: William Frey Key Below 12.6% 12.6% - 25.0% Above 25.0%
Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2003 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 California New York
New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2003 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Nevada Georgia
2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35 Source: William Frey GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%
Growth by Age, 2000-10 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+ 0-10 California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,
Urban Suburban Growth: 2000-04 04 12 10 8 6 4 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2 0 Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro
Bush 2004 Vote by Urban-Suburban 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro
Fastest Growing Counties, 2000-04 04 Growth County Inside Metro Area 1 41.0 Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC 2 38.5 Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach 3 35.4 Douglas Co, CO Denver 4 35.2 Rockwall Co, TX Dallas 5 34.0 Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta 6 33.6 Henry Co, GA Atlanta 7 33.0 Kendall Co, IL Chicago 8 31.5 Newton Co, GA Atlanta 9 30.2 Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD 10 29.7 Paulding Co, GA Atlanta
Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004 Source: William Frey Red Blue Purple
Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, 120 2004 100 80 60 RED BLUE PURPLE 40 20 0 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004 Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey
Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004 26% Melting Pot 36% 28% New Sunbelt 54% 38% Heartland 27% 46% 18% RED BLUE PURPLE 27%
Percent Population Change, 2000-04 04 9 8 7 6 5 RED BLUE PURPLE 4 3 2 1 0 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Urban Suburban Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Small/NonMetro Suburb/Med Metro Major Metro Core Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
New Sunbelt: 2000-04 04 Components 50 40 39 30 20 10 0 13 23 18 22 Immigraton Domestic Migration -10-20 -30-40 -35 RED BLUE PURPLE
Heartland: 2000-04 04 Components 20 14 15 10 10 6 7 5 0-5 -3-10 -15-20 -25-30 -35-31 RED BLUE PURPLE Immigraton Domestic Migration
Race Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic Asia/Othr Black White Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
New Sunbelt Subregions: : Race Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic Asia/Othr Black White Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Southwest Northwest South
New Sunbelt Race Growth 2000-04 04 25 20 15 10 White Black Asian Hispanic 5 0-5 Source: William Frey Red Blue Purple
Source: William. Frey US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004 Total Voters 68% 79% White Black Hispanic Asian Other
Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter Shares 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 34 37 22 33 16 29 12 23 20 19 10 9 10 Total Voters 0 New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida
Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004 Florida California 43% 37% 19% 31% RED BLUE PURPLE 20% 50%
Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey
Florida: 2000-04 04 Components 90 80 80 70 60 50 Immigraton Domestic Migration 40 30 32 30 36 28 20 10 0 11 RED BLUE PURPLE
California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos. Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey
California: 2000-04 04 Components 50 41 41 40 30 25 23 20 10 5 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-49 RED BLUE PURPLE Immigraton Domestic Migration
Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 vs 2004 60 50 53.6 51.1 51.8 49.0 40 2000 30 22.6 27.7 2004 20 10 0 Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI
Demographic Components, 2000-04 04 80 60 64 55 47 40 20 0-20 -40 27 29 5-9 11 Immigraton Domestic Migration Natural Increase -60-80 -100-120 -98 Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI
Race-Ethnic Profiles Queens, NY 20% Wake Co. NC 20% 32% 6% 22% 67% 7% 26% Cahoun Co. MI 11% 4% 3% White Black Asia/Othr Hispanic Source: William Frey 82%