Executive Summary Contributions of Wyoming State Parks and Historic Sites to State and Local Economies, 2009 Wyoming State Parks and Historic Sites hosted 2.685 million visitors in 2009. These visitors spent $78.1 million dollars in the state on their trips of which $50.1 million was spent in the local regions around the parks. Auto expenses, primarily fuel purchases, account for 26% of all spending, groceries 24%, restaurants 19%, lodging 13%, and shopping including sporting goods 15%. The statewide economic significance of the visitor spending in 2009 was 943 jobs, $21.18 million in labor income and $37.78 million value added. Visitor spending generated $3.0 million in state and local sales and use taxes. The Division employed 78 permanent staff in 2009 with a payroll of $5.85 million and an operating budget of $2.86 million. The total impacts on the state economy of the payroll and operational spending in 2009 was 182 jobs, $7.70 million in labor income and $9.59 million value added. Combining the statewide impacts of visitor spending and operations, the total economic contribution was 1,123 jobs, $28.9 million in labor income and $47.4 million in value added. Of the 1,123 jobs supported statewide, 856 are in local regions around the parks. Excluding spending by local visitors and a portion of visitor spending for trips where the park was not the main destination yields a local impact of 623 jobs, $15.5 million in labor income and $22.5 million in value added. Summary of Contributions of Wyoming State Parks and Historic Sites to the Wyoming Economy: $28.9 million in labor income $47.4 million in value added 1,123 jobs $3.0 million in state and local taxes Every dollar of state funding for state parks and historic sites generates $9 in visitor spending, of which $4.34 represents value added to the state economy and $2.43 goes to wages and salaries of Wyoming workers. 1
Contributions of Wyoming State Parks and Historic Sites to State and Local Economies, 2009 Daniel J. Stynes and Sean D. Stynes November 2010 Wyoming State Parks hosted 2,440,570 visits at 13 state parks in 2009. A total of 244,498 visits were recorded at thirteen historic sites. Visitors spent an estimated $78.1 million on trips to state parks and historic sites in 2009, contributing to economic activity in the state and supporting local economies near the parks. State and local economic impacts also arise from employees and operations of the Wyoming Division of State Parks and Historic Sites. The Division had 78 full time employees in 2009 with a total payroll of $5.85 million and a basic operating budget of $2.86 million. Additional jobs are supported through state park purchases of goods and services from Wyoming businesses and through park employee spending of earned income. This study estimates the state and local economic effects of visitor spending and park operations at Wyoming state parks and historic sites. Direct and secondary economic effects are estimated in terms of sales, jobs, income, and value added 1. The estimates are based on state park payroll and operating budgets, visitor use counts, visitor spending patterns, and input-output models of the state and local economies. Park visitor spending and impacts are estimated using the National Park Service s Money Generation Model (MGM2). The MGM2 model was developed by the NPS to estimate spending of park visitors and the associated impacts on local economies. Variations of the model are used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and a variety of state and local recreation and tourism organizations. The model has been applied in recreation and tourism applications ranging from art exhibits and cultural tourism to snowmobiling and state park use. The MGM2 model estimates visitor spending within a set of distinct visitor segments. Total visitor spending is estimated by applying per visit spending averages to the number of park visits. Economic ratios and multipliers for key tourism-related sectors are used to convert spending to the associated jobs and income in the region and estimate secondary effects. Economic Impacts = Visits * Spending per visit * Multipliers Calculations using this simple model are disaggregated by visitor segment, spending categories, and associated economic sectors. 2
Visitor Segments To explain differences in spending across different parks, visitors are divided into four segments: Local day trips (Local Day): day use visitors living within roughly 60 miles of the park 2 Non-local day trips (Non-Local Day): visitors from outside the local area on trips not involving an overnight stay away from home. Campers (Camp): Overnight visitors staying in campgrounds 3. Other Overnight visitors (Overnight): visitors on overnight trips who are staying outside the park. This includes visitors staying with friends or relatives and visitors staying in commercial lodging (motels, cabins, B&B s, private campgrounds), or other public campgrounds. Measures of economic contributions and impacts There are several alternative measures of the economic contribution of park visitors. These depend on which visitors and spending are included in the analysis and the regional scope of the impacts. Some studies include all spending of all visitors on their trips, including spending at home, en/route and at the destination, while others restrict the analysis to spending near the park. Impacts can be estimated for local regions around the parks or statewide. Some studies exclude spending of visitors who live in the local area as not representing new dollars to the economy, and some further limit the spending attributed to park visits to trips where the park visit was the primary purpose. A true impact analysis attempts to identify spending that would be lost to the state or local region in the absence of the parks. Such a with versus without analysis requires considerable knowledge of trip purposes and potential substitution behaviors to assess which spending would be lost. Economic studies may stop at measures of visitor spending, report just the direct economic effects of this spending, or also include secondary/multiplier effects. Three alternative impact scenarios are presented for Wyoming state parks and historic sites. Statewide significance : The statewide significance covers the contribution of all visitor trip spending to the state economy. It measures all economic activity in the state associated with visitor spending. Local significance : The local economic contribution restricts spending to the local region around the park and uses local multipliers to capture impacts on businesses within the local region. 3
Local impacts : Local impacts measure the likely loss in economic activity within the local region in the absence of the park. This analysis excludes spending by local residents and counts only a portion of spending of visitors on trips where the park visit was not the primary purpose. Spending near the park and multipliers for local regions are used. To avoid double counting the spending of visitors who may visit multiple parks or reenter the same park multiple times during their trip, only one day of spending is counted for each park visit. For example, if a tourist visiting the state for seven days spends only one day in a state park, just one day of spending is attributed to the state park visit. For park visitors staying overnight outside the park, one day of spending is counted for each day they enter the park. It is also assumed that camper vehicles will be counted each time they enter the park and therefore one day of spending is counted for each park entry. For each scenario, total visitor spending is reported as well as the direct and total (direct + secondary) economic effects of this spending in terms of sales, jobs, income, and value added. Sales represents the sales of businesses in the region with the exception that sales in the retail trade sector are only the retail margins on retail sales and therefore exclude the cost of goods sold. Wholesale margins that accrue to Wyoming firms are included along with a small percentage. Jobs are not full time equivalents but include full and part time jobs, consistent with employment estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Income is measured as labor income which includes wages and salaries and payroll benefits, including the income of sole proprietors. Value added includes labor income as well as profits and rents and indirect business taxes. Value added is the preferred measure of the contribution of an activity or industry to gross state product as it measures the value added by that activity/industry net of the costs of all non-labor inputs to production. Direct effects capture the impacts in businesses selling goods and services to park visitors. Direct effects occur primarily in lodging, restaurants, amusements, retail stores, and transportation sectors. Secondary effects cover the impacts on backward linked industries that sell goods or services to tourism-related businesses (indirect effects) and impacts from household spending of income earned from visitor spending (induced effects). Secondary effects are scattered across a broader set of industries including utilities, banking, business services, and retail trade. 4
RESULTS Impacts of visitor spending are estimated first, followed by the state and local economic contributions from park payrolls and operational expenditures. Visitor spending impacts are estimated with the MGM2 model. Estimates of the three primary inputs to the MGM2 model (visits, spending averages and multipliers) are presented first, followed by estimates of spending and impacts for the three impact scenarios defined above. Inputs to the MGM2 model Visits The number of park visitors is taken from the Division s visitor use program (Wyoming Division of State Parks, Historic Sites and Trails, 2009). The number of individual visitors to thirteen state parks and thirteen historic sites in 2009 are provided in the visitor use report. State parks hosted 2.44 million visitors in 2009. Hot Springs accounts for half of all park visitors (Table 1). Table 1. Wyoming State Park Visits and Segment Shares - 2009 Local NL Average Park Visits Day Day Overnight Camp Party Size Bear River 199,850 19% 76% 3% 3% 2.53 Boysen 90,215 5% 20% 16% 60% 2.58 Buffalo Bill SP 70,215 5% 6% 15% 74% 2.59 Curt Gowdy 107,431 22% 12% 6% 60% 3.19 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 56,402 33% 67% 0% 0% 3.48 Glendo 222,688 1% 7% 13% 78% 3.20 Guernsey 65,559 3% 11% 11% 74% 3.57 Hawk Springs RA 11,864 7% 15% 7% 72% 3.57 Hot Springs 1,214,108 4% 54% 28% 13% 2.74 Keyhole 178,503 35% 17% 10% 38% 2.82 Medicine Lodge Arch. Site 23,615 7% 23% 10% 61% 2.93 Seminoe 22,198 2% 11% 18% 69% 3.43 Sinks Canyon 177,922 10% 63% 8% 19% 3.01 Park Total 2,440,570 9% 43% 19% 29% 2.85 Note: Visits to the Bear River Walking path and Travel Center are excluded. 5
Visitor spending estimates are made by dividing visitors into segments with distinct spending patterns. State park visitors are apportioned among local residents, visitors from outside the local region on day trips, campers and other visitors on overnight trips based on the 2009 Visitor Use Study (Wyoming Division of State Parks and Historic Sites, 2010) 4. Based on the 2009 park visitor survey, 9% of state park day visitors are local residents, 43% are non-locals on day trips, 29% are campers and 19% are on overnight trips staying outside the park. These percentages vary from park to park (Table 1). Thirteen historic sites recorded 244,498 visitors in 2009 (Table 2). Eighty-eight percent of historic site visitors are non-local residents on day trips (Table 2). Among the thirteen historic sites, the Governor s Mansion, Trail End, and Legend Rock received the largest percentages of visitors on overnight trips. Table 2. Historic Site Visits and Segment Shares-2009 NL Average Historic Site Visits Local Day Day Overnight Camp Party Size Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 35,980 4% 92% 2% 2% 2.30 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 8,915 8% 90% 2% 0% 3.00 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 7,115 0% 100% 0% 0% 2.30 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 21,127 4% 92% 4% 0% 2.43 Historic Governors' Mansion 5,964 7% 59% 28% 6% 2.65 Independence Rock 52,348 4% 91% 5% 1% 3.29 Legend Rock 7,405 7% 66% 18% 9% 2.57 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 30,663 2% 97% 2% 0% 2.85 Pioneer Museum 7,854 4% 81% 9% 6% 2.51 Register Cliff S.H.S. 25,143 2% 97% 2% 0% 2.85 South Pass City S.H.S. 11,546 13% 82% 4% 1% 3.05 Trail End S.H.S. 16,354 6% 59% 24% 11% 2.58 Wyoming Territorial Prison 14,084 5% 80% 15% 0% 3.21 Historic Site Total 244,498 4% 88% 6% 2% 2.81 The visitor survey was also used to estimate average party sizes at historic sites and the percentage of trips made primarily to visit each park 5. For the purpose of estimating spending, the travel party is treated as the spending unit. Based on the 2009 Visitor Survey, the average party size for state park visitors was 2.85 (Table 1). There were 2.81 people per party at historic sites (Table 2). The number of visitor groups was estimated by dividing visits at each park or historic site by the average party size. The number of party visits by each segment is calculated by multiplying the segment shares in Tables 1 and 2 by the number of person visits at each park/historic site and then dividing by the average party size at each location. State parks hosted 861,600 parties in 6
2009, while historic sites hosted about 88,600 visitor groups. The thirteen state parks and thirteen historic sites combined served 950,000 visitor parties in 2009 (Table 3). Table 3. Party Visits by Segment and Park Park Local Day NL Day Overnight Camp Total Bear River 14,946 59,785 2,299 2,012 79,043 Boysen 1,615 6,832 5,466 21,117 35,029 Buffalo Bill SP 1,297 1,729 3,977 20,056 27,058 Curt Gowdy 7,415 4,119 2,060 20,047 33,640 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 5,396 10,793 0 0 16,189 Glendo 849 4,813 9,343 54,501 69,506 Guernsey 642 2,055 2,055 13,613 18,364 Hawk Springs RA 222 499 222 2,384 3,326 Hot Springs 18,467 240,075 125,720 58,243 442,506 Keyhole 22,422 10,495 6,202 24,171 63,290 Medicine Lodge Arch. Site 557 1,829 795 4,889 8,069 Seminoe 149 716 1,134 4,475 6,473 Sinks Canyon 6,165 36,992 4,453 11,474 59,085 Park Sub-total 80,142 380,733 163,724 236,982 861,580 Historic Site Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 652 14,413 261 326 15,652 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 252 2,669 50 0 2,972 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 0 3,093 0 0 3,093 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 330 8,022 330 0 8,683 Historic Governors' Mansion 152 1,334 629 133 2,248 Independence Rock 647 14,419 739 92 15,898 Legend Rock 196 1,896 523 261 2,876 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 179 10,400 179 0 10,759 Pioneer Museum 116 2,551 290 174 3,131 Register Cliff S.H.S. 147 8,528 147 0 8,822 South Pass City S.H.S. 496 3,084 165 37 3,782 Trail End S.H.S. 399 3,737 1,495 698 6,327 Wyoming Territorial Prison 222 3,506 666 0 4,393 Historic Site Sub-total 3,788 77,652 5,474 1,722 88,636 Grand Total 83,931 458,385 169,198 238,703 950,217 7
Spending averages Spending of visitors to each park or historic site is estimated by multiplying the volume of visits by each segment (in party days) by an average daily spending per party per day. Spending profiles used in the 2005 economic study (Stynes, 2005)) were price adjusted to 2009 using Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price indices for each spending category. Spending averages for the four state park visitor segments are given in Table 4. Spending is divided between spending within 60 miles of the park/historic site and spending elsewhere in Wyoming. All spending in Wyoming is used in assessing statewide impacts while spending averages near the destination are used to assess local impacts. The statewide averages for parks are adjusted for individual parks based on nearby spending opportunities. Some adjustments are also made for historic sites based on spending surveys at museums and heritage areas. The overall state spending averages are modified somewhat for application to individual parks and historic sites. Spending profiles for high spending areas are set at 20% above the statewide averages and profiles for low spending areas are set at 75% of the state averages. For two parks and one historic site with limited nearby spending opportunities (Medicine Lodge, Seminoe, and Fort Fred Steele), a set of very low profiles were computed at half of the state averages. Park spending averages are reported in Table 4, historic sites in Table 5. Table 4. Visitor Spending by Lodging Segment South Dakota ($ per party per day) In Wyoming Near destination Local NL- Local NL- Spending Category Day Day Overnight Camp Day Day Overnight Camp Motel, hotel, cabin 0.00 0.00 47.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.09 0.00 Camping fees 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Restaurants & bars 8.21 9.59 30.73 11.90 8.21 8.21 27.44 9.11 Groceries, take-out 4.18 14.14 16.31 30.98 4.18 4.18 11.78 11.87 Gas & oil 6.60 14.90 26.90 27.20 6.60 6.60 19.34 13.40 Local transportation 0.05 0.13 0.66 1.15 0.05 0.05 0.64 0.27 Admissions & fees 3.12 3.29 1.22 0.94 3.12 3.12 1.14 0.75 Sporting goods 1.25 3.42 2.64 6.70 1.25 1.25 1.59 2.24 Souvenirs/other 2.33 3.50 18.31 9.27 2.33 2.33 15.95 6.68 Total 25.75 49.89 144.15 88.14 25.75 25.75 121.96 44.31 Note: Spending averages exclude park admissions and state park camping fees, as this spending is covered as part of the impacts of park operations. 8
Table 5. Wyoming Historic Site Visitor Spending by Segment S ($ per party per day) Spending Category Local Day NL Day Overnight Camp Local Day NL Day Overnight Camp Motel, hotel, cabin 0.00 0.00 47.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.09 0.00 Camping fees 0.00 0.92 0.00 10.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.52 Restaurants & bars 12.98 14.35 30.73 11.91 12.98 12.98 27.44 9.11 Groceries, take-out 4.18 14.14 16.31 30.97 4.18 4.18 11.78 11.87 Gas & oil 6.60 14.90 26.90 28.47 6.60 6.60 19.34 13.71 Local transportation 0.05 0.13 0.66 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.64 0.00 Admissions & fees 4.68 4.94 1.82 1.41 4.68 4.68 1.71 1.12 Sporting goods 1.25 3.42 2.64 6.69 1.25 1.25 1.59 2.24 Souvenirs/other 2.91 4.38 22.89 11.60 2.91 2.91 19.93 8.35 Total 32.65 57.18 149.33 101.58 32.65 32.65 126.51 56.91 Note: Spending averages exclude admissions fees at the historic sites. The assignments of spending profiles to individual parks/historic sites were based on indicators of spending opportunities around each park provided by Wyoming State Park and Historic Site staff. The spending profiles for each park/historic site are reported in Table 6. Table 6. Spending profiles and local regions for park units Spending Local Region profiles (Counties) Parks Bear River High Uinta Boysen Low Fremont Buffalo Bill Medium Park Curt Gowdy Medium Albany/Laramie Edness K. Wilkins High Natrona Glendo Medium Goshen/Platte Guernsey Medium Goshen/Platte Hawk Springs Low Goshen/Platte Hot Springs High Hot Springs Keyhole Medium Crook,Weston, Campbell Medicine Lodge Very Low Bighorn Seminoe Very Low Carbon Sinks Canyon High Fremont 9
Total Visitor Spending Table 6 (Continued). Spending profiles and local regions for park units Spending Local Region profiles (Counties) Historic Sites Ft. Bridger Medium Uinta Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. Low Converse Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. Very Low Carbon Ft. Phil Kearny Medium Bighorn Governor's Mansion High Albany/Laramie Independence Rock Low Natrona Legend Rock Medium Hot Springs Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. Low Goshen/Platte Pioneer Museum Medium Converse Register Cliff S.H.S. Medium Goshen/Platte South Pass City Low Fremont Trail End High Bighorn Wyoming Territorial Prison High Albany/Laramie Visitors spent $78.1 million on trips to state parks and historic sites in 2009. This is almost double the estimated spending in 2005. Campers account for 27% of the total spending, other overnight visitors 36%, non-local day trips 34% and local visitors 3% (Table 7). Auto expenses, primarily fuel purchases, account for 26% of all spending, groceries 24%, restaurants 19%, lodging 13%, and shopping including sporting goods 15%. Table 7. Total Visitor Spending by Segment and Spending Category ($000 s) Spending category Local Day Segment NL Day Overnight Camp Total Motel, hotel cabin or B&B 0 0 9,173 0 9,173 Camping fees 0 474 0 20 494 Restaurants & bars 772 5,307 5,948 2,888 14,914 Groceries 384 7,326 3,158 7,516 18,385 Gas & oil 606 7,719 5,208 6,602 20,135 Local transportation 5 66 127 277 475 Admissions & fees 292 1,823 239 229 2,583 Sporting goods 115 1,774 510 1,624 4,024 Souvenirs & other 216 1,877 3,571 2,254 7,918 Total 2,390 26,367 27,934 21,410 78,101 10
Park visitors spent $72.9 million while visitors to historic sites spent $5.2 million (Table 8). Hot Springs state park generated the greatest spending ($42.85 million), followed by Glendo ($6.41 million), Bear River ($4.65 million), Sinks Canyon ($4.39 million) and Keyhole ($4.12 million). Table 8. Total Visitor Spending by Park and Segment, 2009 ($000's) NL Park Local Day Day Overnight Camp Total Bear River 462 3,580 398 213 4,652 Boysen 31 256 591 1,396 2,274 Buffalo Bill SP 33 86 573 1,768 2,461 Curt Gowdy 191 206 297 1,767 2,460 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 167 646 0 0 813 Glendo 22 240 1,347 4,804 6,412 Guernsey 17 103 296 1,200 1,615 Hawk Springs RA 4 19 24 158 205 Hot Springs 571 14,374 21,747 6,160 42,852 Keyhole 577 524 894 2,130 4,125 Medicine Lodge Arch. Site 7 46 57 215 326 Seminoe 2 18 82 197 299 Sinks Canyon 190 2,215 770 1,214 4,389 Park Sub-total 2,274 22,311 27,075 21,221 72,882 Historic Site Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 21 824 39 33 917 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 6 114 6 0 126 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 0 133 0 0 133 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 11 459 49 0 519 Historic Governors' Mansion 6 92 113 16 226 Independence Rock 16 618 83 7 724 Legend Rock 6 108 78 27 219 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 4 446 20 0 470 Pioneer Museum 4 146 43 18 211 Register Cliff S.H.S. 5 488 22 0 514 South Pass City S.H.S. 12 132 19 3 166 Trail End S.H.S. 16 256 268 85 625 Wyoming Territorial Prison 9 241 119 0 368 Historic Site Sub-total 116 4,057 858 188 5,219 Grand Total 2,390 26,367 27,934 21,410 78,101 Multipliers Input-output models were estimated for the state of Wyoming and for local regions around each park using the IMPLAN system (version 3.0) with 2008 economic data. IMPLAN is a widely used regional economic modeling system originally developed by 11
the USDA Forest Service and now managed by MIG. Inc. Local regions were defined to include counties within roughly a 60 mile radius of each park. Multipliers for the key tourism-related sectors were extracted from the IMPLAN models and entered into the MGM2 spreadsheet model. Retail and wholesale margins are applied to retail purchases to separate the portion of sales accruing to the retailer, wholesaler, and manufacturer of the good. All of the retail margins accrue to local firms, while only a portion of the associated wholesale and manufacturing activity accrues to Wyoming firms. Local area multipliers are used for the local significance and impact analyses. Statewide impacts are estimated using local area ratios for the direct effects of spending within the local area and statewide multipliers for secondary effects. The effects of spending outside the local area are also estimated using statewide multipliers. Multiplier effects will be smaller for local regions. The counties included in the local regions for each park are given in Table 6 above. The statewide sector-specific multipliers for Wyoming are given in Appendix A along with brief explanations. Table 9 summarizes multipliers for distinct sub-regions of the state using the hotel and restaurant sectors to illustrate. Table 9. Multipliers for Selected Wyoming regions; hotel and restaurant sectors, 2008 Hotel sector Restaurant sector Region Sales Type I Sales Type II Direct jobs/ Million sales Sales Type I Sales Type II Direct jobs/ Million sales State of Wyoming 1.26 1.48 12.6 1.26 1.48 19.4 Natrona County 1.16 1.32 15.6 1.17 1.34 19.4 Laramie/Albany Counties 1.23 1.43 13.0 1.22 1.42 20.2 Park County 1.22 1.39 14.3 1.18 1.34 20.2 Fremont County 1.19 1.36 16.0 1.17 1.33 20.9 Goshen & Platte Counties 1.16 1.30 19.5 1.15 1.28 24.0 Uinta County 1.15 1.29 17.1 1.15 1.28 22.0 Crook, Weston,& Campbell 1.23 1.38 17.1 1.21 1.37 19.5 Converse County 1.00 1.01 16.4 1.00 1.00 22.6 Carbon County 1.15 1.27 16.1 1.14 1.25 19.8 Hot Springs County 1.15 1.25 16.5 1.11 1.21 22.1 Bighorn County 1.15 1.23 24.9 1.13 1.19 25.7 The most commonly cited multiplier is the Type II sales multiplier which indicates the degree of interdependence of sectors within the economy. The type II sales multiplier for the hotel sector gives the total sales resulting from one dollar of output in the hotel sector. The statewide multiplier for the hotel sector in Wyoming is 1.48, indicating that $.48 in secondary sales results from every dollar of direct hotel sales. The type II sales multipliers decline for smaller regions and less developed economies from the statewide figure of 1.48 to 1.01 in Converse County (Table 9). 12
The number of direct jobs per million sales is used to estimate the employment effects in each industry. For example, one million dollars of hotel sales directly supports 12.6 jobs statewide, 15.6 jobs in Natrona County and 16.5 jobs in Hot Springs county. Job to sales ratios tend to be higher in rural areas relative to metropolitan regions due to smaller firms and more part time and seasonal jobs. Job to sales ratios have declined substantially since 2005. Statewide Economic Significance of Visitor Spending The statewide economic significance of state parks and historic sites measures the contribution of park visitor spending to the state economy. This analysis includes all visitor trip spending and uses statewide multipliers. The economic impacts of the $78.1 million in visitor spending are estimated by applying the spending totals in Table 7 to multipliers for the Wyoming state economy. The overall contribution of visitor trip spending to the Wyoming economy is: $21.2 million in labor income, 943 jobs, and $37.8 million in value added. $3.0 million in state and local sales and use taxes Table 10. State significance, Parks and Historic Sites Combined Sector/Spending category Direct Sales $000's Jobs Labor Income $000's Value Added $000's Motel, hotel, cabin 8,820 145 2,814 5,127 Camping fees 494 4 115 295 Restaurants & bars 14,341 308 4,359 6,317 Admissions & fees 2,484 23 439 772 Local transportation 475 16 166 246 Grocery stores 4,651 75 1,955 2,987 Gas stations 3,650 43 1,096 2,519 Other retail 5,134 128 2,069 3,151 Wholesale Trade 2,684 13 799 1,379 Local Manf. 9,238 1 83 118 Total Direct Effects 51,971 755 13,894 22,912 Secondary Effects 26,824 189 7,288 14,865 Total Effects 78,795 943 21,182 37,777 Multiplier 1.52 1.25 1.52 1.65 Direct effects are $13.9 million in labor income and 755 jobs. The aggregate statewide sales multiplier for park visitor spending in Wyoming is 1.52. Fifty-two million in direct sales 6 therefore generates another $26.8 million in secondary sales for a total sales impact 13
of $78.8 million. An additional 189 jobs and $7.3 million in wages and salaries are supported through secondary effects as the visitor spending circulates within the Wyoming economy (Table 10). Local Significance Impacts on local regions around each park are based on spending near the park and multipliers for local regions. Fifty million of the $78.1 million spent by park visitors in the state is spent near the park units (Table 11). About half of the spending of campers and non-local day visitors is made beyond 60 miles of the park and therefore does not impact the local economy. Previous state park studies indicate that many state park visitors buy supplies at home or en route, due to convenience, higher prices and more limited availability of goods and services near the parks. Grocery and fuel purchases make up slightly smaller percentages of spending at the local level as restaurant, lodging, and souvenir purchases are more likely to be made near the park. Table 11. Local Area Visitor Spending by Segment and Spending Category ($000 s) Segment Spending category Local Day NL Day Overnight Camp Total Motel, hotel, cabin 0 0 7,761 0 7,761 Camping fees 0 248 0 11 259 Restaurants & bars 772 2,795 5,033 1,453 10,052 Groceries, take-out 384 3,836 2,672 3,782 10,674 Gas & oil 606 4,041 4,407 3,322 12,376 Local transportation 5 35 108 139 286 Admissions & fees 292 960 202 115 1,570 Sporting goods 115 929 432 817 2,293 Souvenirs/other 216 986 3,021 1,134 5,358 Total 2,390 13,830 23,635 10,775 50,630 14
Table 12. Total Visitor Spending in Local Area by Park and Segment ($000's) Park Local Day NL Day Overnight Camp Total Bear River 462 1,847 337 107 2,752 Boysen 31 132 500 702 1,365 Buffalo Bill SP 33 45 485 889 1,452 Curt Gowdy 191 106 251 888 1,436 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 167 333 0 0 500 Glendo 22 124 1,139 2,415 3,700 Guernsey 17 53 251 603 923 Hawk Springs RA 4 10 20 79 113 Hot Springs 571 7,418 18,399 3,097 29,484 Keyhole 577 270 756 1,071 2,675 Medicine Lodge Arch. Site 7 24 48 108 188 Seminoe 2 9 69 99 179 Sinks Canyon 190 1,143 652 610 2,595 Park Sub-total 2,274 11,513 22,908 10,669 47,364 Historic Site Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 21 471 33 19 543 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 6 65 5 0 76 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 0 76 0 0 76 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 11 262 42 0 315 Historic Governors' Mansion 6 52 95 9 163 Independence Rock 16 353 70 4 443 Legend Rock 6 62 66 15 149 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 4 255 17 0 276 Pioneer Museum 4 83 37 10 134 Register Cliff S.H.S. 5 278 19 0 302 South Pass City S.H.S. 12 76 16 2 105 Trail End S.H.S. 16 146 227 48 437 Wyoming Territorial Prison 9 137 101 0 247 Historic Site Sub-total 116 2,317 727 106 3,266 Grand Total 2,390 13,830 23,635 10,775 50,630 The contribution of state park visitor spending to local economies near the parks is smaller than the statewide contribution as only 65% of spending is made within 60 miles of the park and local multiplier effects are smaller than statewide effects. Summing the local impacts across all parks and historic sites gives a statewide local impact of 683 jobs and $12.4 million in labor income (Table 13). 15
Table 13. Local Economic Significance of Local Visitor Spending Sector/Spending category Sales $000's Jobs Labor Income $000's Value Added $000's Motel, hotel cabin or B&B 8,207 137 2,609 4,754 Camping fees 20 0 4 11 Restaurants & bars 12,392 270 3,713 5,381 Admissions & fees 2,329 21 409 721 Other vehicle expenses 0 0 0 0 Local transportation 223 12 53 83 Grocery stores 1,951 33 816 1,245 Gas stations 1,998 24 600 1,379 Other retail 3,512 93 1,406 2,116 Wholesale Trade 846 6 312 539 Local Manf. 306 0 6 8 Total Direct Effects 31,783 597 9,928 16,236 Secondary Effects 8,621 86 2,476 4,769 Total Effects 40,404 683 12,404 21,005 Multiplier 1.27 5.57 1.50 1.54 While the contribution of park visitor spending to local economies is smaller in absolute value compared to statewide, visitor spending typically represents a much larger share of economic activity in the local region than for the state as a whole. For example, while park visitor spending is only about 1.2% of all lodging and restaurant sales statewide, in Hot Springs County park visitor spending accounts for the majority of lodging and restaurant sales. Local Impact Not all of the local spending associated with state park visits would necessarily be lost in the absence of the state parks and historic sites. Some park visitors are in the area on business, visiting friends or relatives, visiting other attractions, or en route to other destinations. Some park visitors would substitute other sites locally or elsewhere in Wyoming if a given state park were not available. While it is difficult to predict the substitutions that would occur if one or more state parks were closed, visitor reports of trip purposes provide an indication of which trips might be lost. In the 2009 visitor survey, respondents indicated whether the park or historic site they had visited was the main destination of their trip. For state parks, 80% of visits by local residents were primarily to visit the park. The percentage of primary purpose trips was 70% for campers, 57% for other overnight trips, and 40% for non-local day trips (Table 14). Smaller percentages of visitors to Hot Springs and Sinks Canyon made the trip primarily to visit the park. As the sample sizes for individual segments at many parks are too small to yield reliable percentages, the statewide percentages are used when the 16
sample size is less than 50 cases. Overall, about 62% of all state park visits are classified as primary purpose trips. Table 14. Percentage of Trips with Park as Main Destination Park Local Day NL day OVN Camp Overall Bear River 60% 34% 57% 70% 41% Boysen 80% 70% 57% 52% 61% Buffalo Bill SP 80% 70% 20% 17% 28% Curt Gowdy 85% 70% 57% 90% 90% Edwin Kimball Wilkins 80% 70% 57% 70% 69% Glendo 90% 90% 95% 95% 94% Guernsey 90% 70% 90% 90% 88% Hawk Springs RA 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% Hot Springs 70% 22% 31% 33% 27% Keyhole 94% 77% 87% 75% 87% Medicine Lodge A.S. 80% 33% 57% 80% 68% Seminoe 80% 80% 93% 93% 93% Sinks Canyon 75% 25% 34% 34% 34% Park Total 80% 40% 57% 70% 62% Historic Sites Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 68% 14% 20% 18% 15% Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 68% 18% 20% 18% 19% Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 68% 20% 20% 18% 10% Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 68% 19% 20% 18% 22% Governors' Mansion 68% 33% 20% 18% 23% Independence Rock 68% 13% 20% 18% 15% Legend Rock 68% 20% 20% 18% 35% Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 68% 12% 20% 18% 11% Pioneer Museum 68% 9% 20% 18% 9% Register Cliff S.H.S. 68% 12% 20% 18% 11% South Pass City S.H.S. 68% 37% 37% 18% 45% Trail End S.H.S. 68% 19% 20% 18% 21% WY Territorial Prison 68% 25% 20% 18% 29% Historic Site Total 68% 20% 20% 18% 23% Note: For park/segment combinations with fewer than 50 cases, the overall state park or historic site percentage are used Historic sites were less likely to be the primary destination of the trip. Except for local visitors on day trips, only about one in four historic site visitors identified the historic site as the primary destination. In estimating local impacts, spending of local residents is excluded and for non-primary purpose trips only the spending equivalent of a local day trip is counted. The assumption 17
is that the additional expenses to visit the park that would be incurred by visitors already in the area for other reasons or just passing through should be similar to what a local visitor would spend. This procedure counts about $25 per visit for non-primary purpose visitor parties, including a small amount for meals, gas, groceries, and shopping associated with the state park or historic site visit. When spending by nearby residents is omitted and only a portion of spending on nonprimary purpose trips is counted, the total local spending attributed to park visits decreases by about thirty percent from $50.6 million to $34.8 million (Table 15). Spending on non-primary purpose trips accounts for 45% of the local spending. Table 15. Local Area Spending Attributed to Park Visits ($000's) Park Non-Primary Purpose Trips NL-Day Trip OVN Camp Total Bear River 1,268 628 192 75 2,163 Boysen 281 92 285 365 1,023 Buffalo Bill SP 524 31 97 151 803 Curt Gowdy 106 74 143 799 1,123 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 100 233 0 0 333 Glendo 95 112 1,082 2,294 3,583 Guernsey 56 37 226 543 862 Hawk Springs RA 6 9 18 71 104 Hot Springs 9,672 1,632 5,704 1,022 18,029 Keyhole 238 208 658 803 1,908 Medicine Lodge A.S 33 8 28 87 155 Seminoe 7 7 64 92 171 Sinks Canyon 1,182 286 222 207 1,897 Park SubTotal 13,568 3,357 8,718 6,510 32,154 Historic Site Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 420 66 7 3 496 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 55 12 1 0 67 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 61 15 0 0 76 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 221 50 8 0 279 Governors' Mansion 59 17 19 2 97 Independence Rock 324 46 14 1 384 Legend Rock 70 12 13 3 98 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 228 31 3 0 262 Pioneer Museum 88 7 7 2 105 Register Cliff S.H.S. 249 33 4 0 286 South Pass City S.H.S. 51 28 6 0 85 Trail End S.H.S. 188 28 45 9 270 WY Territorial Prison 124 34 20 0 178 Historic Site SubTotal 2,136 380 148 19 2,683 Grand Total 15,704 3,737 8,867 6,529 34,837 18
Omitting spending by local residents and counting only a portion of expenses for nonprimary purpose trips reduces the local impacts by about thirty percent compared to the local significance scenario (Table 16). Local jobs attributed to park visitor spending is 451 compared to 683 when all local spending is included. The local impact scenario provides a more realistic assessment of the likely economic losses near the parks if the parks were closed. Local impacts for individual parks are reported in Table 21. Table 16. Local Impacts of Attributed Spending Sector/Spending category Sales $000's Jobs Labor Income $000's Value Added $000's Motel, hotel cabin or B&B 3,080 52 977 1,778 Camping fees 4 0 1 2 Restaurants & bars 9,360 205 2,797 4,054 Admissions & fees 2,503 23 446 784 Other vehicle expenses 0 0 0 0 Local transportation 127 6 33 52 Grocery stores 1,436 25 601 915 Gas stations 1,491 18 447 1,029 Other retail 2,326 61 935 1,412 Wholesale Trade 641 4 236 408 Local Manf. 215 0 4 6 Total Direct Effects 21,182 393 6,477 10,441 Secondary Effects 5,792 57 1,669 3,251 Total Effects 26,974 451 8,146 13,692 Multiplier 1.27 1.15 1.26 1.31 Economic Impacts of Park Operations Park operations and employment also contribute to state and local economic activity. Impacts of park operations are based on park payrolls and operating budgets for 2009 (Table 17). The overall payroll for the Division of State Parks and Historic Sites in 2009 was $5.85 million with an additional $2.86 million for operations. Park units reported 41 regular employees and seasonal positions equivalent to another 33 jobs on an annual basis. Historic sites contributed another 22 full time positions and 12 seasonal equivalents. Headquarters employed 15 full time and 6.6 seasonal positions with a payroll of $1,198,763 in 2009 including payroll benefits. In total the Division employs 78 full time positions and 51 seasonal positions. The number of additional jobs and income resulting from the indirect and induced effects of state park operations can be estimated using IMPLAN multipliers. Multipliers for IMPLAN sector 438 (state government non-education payroll) are applied to the payroll data and multipliers for state government operations are applied to the operating data. 19
Statewide and local impacts are estimated using multipliers from state and local economic models, respectively. Table 17. Park Payroll, Operating and Employment, 2009 Jobs Payroll ($000 s) Operating ($000 s) Regular Seasonal a Parks Bear River $182 $66 3 0.8 Boysen $317 $163 4 3.6 Buffalo Bill $212 $121 3 2.9 Curt Gowdy $243 $116 3 3.7 Edness K. Wilkins $160 $40 2 1.5 Glendo $424 $175 5 7.2 Guernsey $344 $124 4 4.6 Hawk Springs $3 $22 0 0.2 Hot Springs $500 $192 8 2.5 Keyhole $335 $145 4 3.2 Medicine Lodge $95 $39 1 0.8 Seminoe $130 $47 2 0.4 Sinks Canyon $176 $55 2 1.3 Park Total $3,122 $1,304 41 33 Historic Sites Ft. Bridger $286 $41 4 2.6 Ft. Fetterman $20 $4 0 1.0 Ft. Fred Steele $1 $4 0 0.1 Ft. Phil Kearney $215 $30 3 1.2 Governor's Mansion $97 $15 1 0.9 Independence Rock $3 $2 0 0.2 Pioneer Museum $167 $28 3 0.3 South Pass City $247 $62 4 2.6 Trail End $204 $32 3 1 Wyoming Territorial Prison $291 $150 4 2.4 Historic site total $1,531 $367 22 12 Headquarters $1,199 $1,191 15 6.6 Grand Total $5,852 $2,862 78 51.3 a. Seasonal positions are estimated as annual equivalents based on an annual wage of $20,000 per job. Three four month seasonal positions equate to one job on an annual basis. The statewide impact of the Division s payroll and operations in 2009 was 182 jobs, $7.70 million in wages and salaries, and $9.59 million in value added (Table 18). These impacts include the payroll and jobs within the Wyoming Division of State Parks and Historic Sites as well as jobs supported through secondary effects. For every full time job within the Division an additional 1.6 jobs are supported through secondary effects of the Division s payroll and operations. Impacts on local economies near the parks are slightly smaller than the statewide effects due to smaller multiplier effects at the local level. 20
Table 18. Impacts of Park Payroll and Operations on state and local economies Statewide Impacts Local Impacts Labor Labor Jobs Income ($000 s) Value Added ($000 s) Jobs Income ($000 s) Value Added ($000 s) Parks Bear River 5.2 $232 $282 4.9 $213 $249 Boysen 10.4 $419 $525 10.2 $410 $502 Buffalo Bill 7.9 $284 $358 7.8 $274 $335 Curt Gowdy 8.7 $319 $397 8.6 $313 $384 Edness K. Wilkins 4.6 $197 $234 4.4 $195 $226 Glendo 15.5 $548 $678 15.2 $514 $615 Guernsey 11.2 $438 $535 10.9 $410 $482 Hawk Springs 0.3 $11 $19 0.3 $9 $15 Hot Springs 14.4 $640 $786 13.7 $584 $682 Keyhole 9.9 $435 $540 9.3 $415 $507 Medicine Lodge 2.6 $123 $151 2.2 $108 $124 Seminoe 3.4 $166 $203 3.1 $150 $174 Sinks Canyon 4.6 $220 $265 4.5 $216 $253 Park Total 98.7 $4,033 $4,974 95.2 $3,812 $4,549 Historic Sites Ft. Bridger 8.2 $343 $402 7.9 $324 $369 Ft. Fetterman 1.1 $24 $28 1.0 $21 $22 Ft. Fred Steele 0.1 $3 $4 0.1 $2 $3 Ft. Phil Kearney 5.5 $257 $300 4.9 $232 $254 Governor's Mansion 2.5 $116 $134 2.5 $115 $132 Independence Rock 0.2 $5 $6 0.2 $5 $6 Pioneer Museum 4.2 $202 $239 3.4 $175 $183 South Pass City 8.3 $305 $362 8.2 $298 $347 Trail End 5.0 $245 $288 4.4 $221 $244 Wy. Territorial Prison 9.0 $385 $480 8.9 $377 $465 Historic site total 44.2 $1,884 $2,244 41.4 $1,768 $2,023 Headquarters 39.5 $1,780 $2,370 35.7 $1,733 $2,266 Grand Total 182.3 $7,696 $9,588 172.3 $7,313 $8,838 Note: Impacts include the income and jobs of park employees, the induced effects of the park payroll and impacts of park operational expenses. Significance and Impact of Wyoming State Parks and Historic Sites Combining the contributions of both visitor spending and park operations to the state economy yields a total statewide economic contribution of 1,123 jobs, $28.9 million in labor income and $47.4 million in value added. Visitor spending accounts for 84% of the jobs and 73% of the income effects statewide (Table 19) 21
The contribution to local economies around the parks is roughly 856 jobs, $19.72 million labor income and $29.84 million value added. The estimate of economic activity that would likely be lost to local regions in the absence of the activities of the Wyoming Division of State Parks and Historic Sites is 623 jobs, $15.5 million in labor income and $22.5 million in value added. Table 19. Combined impacts of visitor spending and park operations Labor Income Scenario Jobs $000's Value Added $000's State Significance Visitor Spending 943 21,182 37,777 Park Operations 180 7,696 9,588 Total 1,123 28,878 47,364 Local Significance Visitor Spending 683 12,404 21,005 Park Operations 173 7,313 8,838 Total 856 19,716 29,844 Local Impact Visitor Spending 451 8,146 13,692 Park Operations 173 7,313 8,838 Total 623 15,458 22,530 State and Local Economic Contributions of Individual Park Units Table 20 summarizes the economic contribution of individual park units to the state and local economies. These estimates include the impacts of visitor spending and park operations. Using total jobs as the indicator of economic impacts, the park units with the greatest contributions to the state economy are Hot Springs (538 jobs), Glendo (88 jobs), Keyhole (51 jobs), Bear River (54 jobs), and Sinks Canyon (49 jobs). The thirteen historic sites support a total of 106 jobs statewide and 89 in local regions near the sites. More conservative estimates of local economic impacts, reported in Table 21, exclude spending of visitors who live in the local area and count only a portion of the spending by visitors whose primary trip purpose was not to visit the state park or historic site. These estimates capture the jobs and income that would likely be lost to local regions in the absence of the park units. 22
Table 20. State and Local Economic Significance by Park & Historic Site Statewide Significance Local Significance Unit Jobs Labor Income $000's Value Added $000's Jobs Labor Income $000's Value Added $000's Parks Bear River 54 1,181 1,919 40 852 1,331 Boysen 34 919 1,375 27 753 1,083 Buffalo Bill 31 823 1,273 24 636 947 Curt Gowdy 32 857 1,318 24 669 989 Edness K. Wilkins 12 395 569 10 332 455 Glendo 88 1,813 2,843 64 1,340 2,021 Guernsey 29 754 1,075 23 614 829 Hawk Springs 3 50 85 2 33 56 Hot Springs 538 9,858 16,466 431 7,800 12,876 Keyhole 51 1,463 2,360 40 1,152 1,798 Medicine Lodge 6 180 246 5 145 185 Seminoe 6 226 306 5 192 246 Sinks Canyon 49 1,179 1,900 36 872 1,358 Park Total 934 19,698 31,736 731 15,390 24,174 Historic Sites Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 19 539 737 16 458 594 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 2 44 60 2 35 44 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 1 31 52 1 22 36 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 12 353 461 10 299 364 Governors' Mansion 5 178 242 5 165 219 Independence Rock 8 195 327 6 139 229 Legend Rock 3 47 80 2 37 62 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 6 97 165 4 66 111 Pioneer Museum 6 237 296 5 200 225 Register Cliff S.H.S. 6 106 181 5 72 121 South Pass City S.H.S. 10 344 428 10 327 395 Trail End S.H.S. 14 373 505 12 320 412 WY Territorial Prison 13 482 647 12 452 592 Historic site total 106 3,025 4,183 89 2,594 3,403 Headquarters 37 1,780 2,370 36 1,733 2,266 Grand Total 1077 24,503 38,289 855 19,716 29,844 Note: Includes effects of visitor spending and park operations. 23
Table 21. Local Economic Impacts by Park & Historic Site Local Impact of Visitor Spending Labor Income ($000's) Value Added ($000's) Unit Jobs State Parks Bear River 32 711 1,090 Boysen 23 667 935 Buffalo Bill SP 17 472 668 Curt Gowdy 21 583 843 Edwin Kimball Wilkins 8 286 378 Glendo 62 1,313 1,976 Guernsey 22 600 805 Hawk Springs 2 31 53 Hot Springs 252 4,673 7,504 Keyhole 32 946 1,438 Medicine Lodge 4 138 173 Seminole 5 190 242 Sinks Canyon 28 686 1,040 Park Total 507 11,296 17,146 Historic Sites Ft. Bridger S.H.S. 15 445 572 Ft. Fetterman S.H.S. 2 33 41 Ft. Fred Steele S.H.S. 1 22 36 Ft. Phil Kearny S.H.S. 9 290 349 Governors' Mansion 4 143 180 Independence Rock 5 120 196 Legend Rock 1 23 38 Oregon Trail Ruts S.H.S. 4 62 103 Pioneer Museum 5 194 214 Register Cliff S.H.S. 4 68 113 South Pass City S.H.S. 9 321 385 Trail End S.H.S. 9 278 339 Wyoming Territorial Prison 11 429 552 Historic site total 80 2,429 3,118 Headquarters 36 1,733 2,266 Grand Total 623 15,458 22,530 Note: Economic impacts exclude spending by visitors who live within 60 miles of the park and count only a portion of the spending by visitors whose primary trip purpose was not to visit the state park or historic site. Includes local impacts of park payroll and operations. 24
Changes in Activity 2005-2009 Since the previous economic study in 2005 park visits have grown by 55%. Park visitor spending almost doubled over the five year period, growing by 93%. The value added contribution of the park visitor spending to the state economy increased from $18.8 million to $35.3 million and an additional 262 jobs were supported. Historic site visitor spending and impacts in 2009 are not directly comparable to 2005 as the 2009 study includes an additional six sites. Visits to the seven historic sites covered in the 2005 study doubled by 2009. The Division s payroll declined by 15% between 2005 and 2009, while operating budgets and the number of permanent employees remained relatively constant (Table 22). The number of seasonal positions increased. Economic impacts of payroll and operations on the state economy declined by about 15%. Table 22. Change in State Park and Historic Site Activity, 2005 2009 Measure 2005 2009 Pct change Visitors and Spending Visits to Parks (person visits) 1,576,638 2,440,570 55% Visits to Historic Sites (person visits) a 94,163 244,498 160% Spending of Park Visitors ($000's) 37,678 72,882 93% Spending Historic Site Visitors ($000's) 1,996 5,219 161% Statewide Economic Significance of Park Visitor Spending Jobs 616 878 43% Labor Income ($000's) 12,488 19,765 58% Value Added ($000's) 18,816 35,260 87% Statewide Economic Significance of Historic Site Visitor Spending Jobs 35 65 87% Labor Income ($000's) 705 1,417 101% Value Added ($000's) 1,054 2,517 139% Park Payroll and Operating Budget Payroll ($000's) 6,896 5,852-15% Operating ($000's) 2,817 2,862 2% Permanent Jobs 75 78 4% Seasonal Jobs (annual equivalents) 31 51 65% Statewide Economic Significance of Payroll and Operations Jobs 207 180-13% Labor Income ($000's) 9,298 7,696-17% Value Added ($000's) 11,162 9,588-14% a. The 2005 study (Stynes, 2005) covered 7 historic sites, while the 2009 study includes 13 sites. Forts Fetterman and Steele, Independence and Legend Rocks, Oregon Trail Ruts and Register Cliff were not included in the 2005 study. 25
Study limitations and sources of error The accuracy of the impact estimates rest largely on the accuracy of visit counts, spending averages, and regional economic multipliers. Parameters from the 2009 park visitor survey are used to estimate the mix of visitors at each park, party sizes, and the percentage of trips where the park was the main destination. Sample sizes for some parks were small, especially when visitors are broken down into the four visitor segments. When sample sizes were too small to be reliable, the overall state park or historic site averages were substituted. Survey results are subject to the usual sampling, non-response and measurement errors. Visit counts are the most important input to the spending calculations. There may be some multiple counting of visitors who enter a park more than once during a stay, which could inflate spending estimates. This potential problem is partly controlled by counting only one day of spending for each visit. Spending of travelers who visit more than one park on a single day will be double counted. The number of campers at each park was estimated based on the percentage of campers in the 2009 park visitor survey. It was assumed that campers could be sampled any day during their stay, so that camper numbers represented camper days/nights in the park. Spending profiles for Wyoming state park visitors for 2009 were estimated by adjusting the 2005 profiles for price changes using Bureau of Labor Statistics price indices for each spending category. It should be noted that the 2005 profiles were adapted from studies in other states, as no spending data has been collected from Wyoming state park visitors. A spending survey of Wyoming state park and historic site visitors is required to further assess the accuracy of the spending averages and to better understand variations across local regions and types of visitors. Multipliers were derived from input-output models estimated with the IMPLAN system (version 3.0). IMPLAN uses national production functions for 440 economic sectors. While I-O models have proven to be fairly robust, they assume linear production functions and may overestimate secondary effects as they do not take into account substitutions or supply constraints. Limited economic development in many Wyoming counties can also introduce errors from IMPLAN s procedures to fill undisclosed economic data at the county level. As the analysis of the three scenarios illustrate, impact estimates rest considerably on the region of interest and what spending is included. The alternative scenarios provide a range of estimates starting with all activity associated with state park visitor and operational spending at the state level and then drilling down to local significance and impact to estimate the expected losses in economic activity should one or more parks be closed. The impact analysis omits several kinds of spending, including park visitor purchases of equipment (boats, camping vehicles, sporting goods) that are not associated with a single 26